Ask Rotoman

Questions and answers

ASK ROTOMAN: Rendon for One Year, or McCullers for Two?

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12 team league. Keepers are kept in round drafted for a max of 3 years. My set Keepers are Rizzo (1st), J. Fernandez (8), and Correa (22). I need to pick 2 of these last 3.

Rendon (21st Round, 1 year left)

McCullers (23rd Round, 2 years left)

C. Martinez (23rd Round, 2 years left)

Who do you like?

“Hobson”

Dear H:

Of these six players you have five excellent freezes. That is, guys who are cheap! The one exception is Anthony Rizzo, who is a first round keeper at a first round price.

Now, that isn’t to say he isn’t a good keeper, but because of this and the fineness of your other five picks, he’s the one I would first look at closely.

Who would you be able to get with your first pick if you didn’t keep Rizzo? If everyone else is keeping their first round picks, you might be able to make your first pick Rizzo, which would be like having six keepers!

There’s no way for me to know how this games out, but while Rizzo is your best player he is the one with the least amount of extra value.

(Note: In auction leagues you would also have to consider how much higher your opponents would bid up Rizzo because of inflation, but that is not a factor in draft leagues. Your only question is who will be available to you for your first round pick if you throw Rizzo back.)

If, for some reason, you judge it is best to hold onto Rizzo,  as well as Correa and Fernandez, then your choice is indeed between the three you list above. They clearly rank Rendon, Martinez, McCulllers (partly because of inexperience and partly because he’s likely to pitch fewer innings this year), which makes the question, would you rather have two years of McCullers or one year of Rendon and your best late-round find this year?

I’m sure there’s a way to tease the math, to look at two year projections for McCullers, to scale up Rendon’s injury risk, and prove that two years of McCullers is the better deal. But the bottom line in shallow league valuations is that with such high replacement-value players available, it’s okay to take on the injury risk and go for the higher impact player. Rendon comes with some risk, but he’s a high-octane hitter in the middle infield, a much more valuable piece this year who will allow you (force you) to find another similar gem next year.

As much as I love McCullers’ arm, he’s the one to cut loose if you’re sure that Rizzo is a good keep in your league.

Sincerely,

rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: Cueto or Archer?

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Rotoman!

Defending champ in a 12 team, auction-draft league with four Keepers. Offensive categories incl. OBP & SLG to go with the standards. Pitching incl. K/9, QS, WHIP, ERA, IP, SV. Appreciate any advice on which of the following two players to keep along with Arenado ($1) and Correa ($1):

Stroman ($1)

Cueto ($7)

Archer ($15)

McCutchen ($29)

“Hello to Arms”

Hello!

You’ve got two strong hitters at skill positions in Arenado and Correa, for less than peanuts, and Marcus Stroman for one samolean is irresistible. That leaves one.

McCutchen is still a bargain at $29, but not a big bargain, so unless you know something about inflation or your leaguemates (like, will they bid him to $60 because of scarcity?), I think you can let him go.

BTW You call this an auction-draft league. Does that mean you really auction? Or do you draft players with auction prices? This sort of thing makes a difference. But I can’t address that specifically, so let’s look at Chris Archer at $15 versus Johnny Cueto at $7.

Archer will be 28 this year, has made 93 career starts and is considered an up and comer. He actually arrived last year, pitching the whole season and for the most part dominating, thanks in large part to throwing his excellent slider more. There are many pitchers who find improvement and success using their slider, and a fair body of evidence that this increases their risk of injury. Still, it wouldn’t be crazy to see another year from Archer like his 2015. 3.30 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, about a strikeout an inning is just fine. Frankly, it wouldn’t be crazy for him to have an even better season, but it wouldn’t be reasonable to expect it.

Cueto  just turned 30, yesterday (though today as I first typed it), and has made 223 starts. He’s been reliable and healthy, generally, though he struggled some after being traded to the Royals last year, where he won a World Series ring, despite not helping as much as they hoped he would. But he did pitch well, generally, in the playoffs, and he crushed the NL team he faced, so while there is evidence that he might be in decline a little, there isn’t much evidence he’s going to freefall.

The interesting thing about Cueto is that he’s been underestimated his whole career. All the component stats don’t like him as well as his results, year after year after year. It appears that’s because, while he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys he does get an above average amount of infield popups, which raises his automatic out rate to pretty respectable levels. Now he’s in San Francisco, a good pitchers park, after spending his successful pre-KC career in Cincinnati, a homer friendly home.

I hope you see where this is going. I’m choosing durable hurler with long history of success in a hitters park (moving to a pitchers park) over the less experienced major league arm with an elevated injury risk because he throws a freaking awesome slider a bit too much of all of the time. And the gravy? The older more established dude is cheaper.

Arenado $1, Correa $1, Stroman $1, Cueto $7.

Sweet.

Ps. Notice how I didn’t ask how you could possibly have Arenado at $1. Rules are rules, I have no quarrel there, but that’s a crazy rule that gives you that.

Pps. Doesn’t it seem that the names of all the possible and obvious keeps you name in your letter sound like plausible Medieval instruments of torture or war? I know I would hate to be struck down by an arenado, or poleaxed by a correa. Please, no! Not the stroman!

Ouch.

Ask Rotoman: Keep Marte or Bogaerts?

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Ask Rotoman: 12 team Keeper League. 5 keepers per team. Non snake draft. I won last year so am drafting 12th. Trying to decide if I should keep Marte in the 3rd round (36 overall) or Bogaerts in the 12th (144). Other 4 keepers are all SP (Kershaw (1), Archer (11), C.Martinez (19), Arrieta (22)). Thanks!

Non snake! That should put a little dent in dynasties, though getting to keep Arrieta in the 22nd is a dynasty maker.

As for your hitter choice, it’s a tough one. Marte is one of the top power/speed guys in the game, certainly one of the Top 20 fantasy players, so getting him with No. 36 is a nice discount.

On the other hand, I love Bogaerts. He’s young, has some power and speed, showed lots of improvement making contact last year, and plays shortstop, a position that is extremely weak this year. He’s ranked around 60th overall this year, which means you’re getting him 84 picks early.

So, what’s more valuable? 16 picks in the early going or 84 picks in the middle? We have a way to check.

Take a look at last year’s Tout Wars Auction results. While any individual player could be off, if you rank the auction results from most expensive pick to least expensive, you can compare comparable draft ranks and see what their financial value is.

For instance, the 20th pick last year was worth $29, so that’s probably what Starling Marte is worth this year. The 36th pick, on the other hand, was worth $25, so the net result is you can judge Marte as a +$4 bargain.

The 60th pick last year, our proxy for Bogaerts, was worth $20. What was the 144th worth? $12, so Bogaerts is +$8. Twice as good! And you have a shortstop!

Now, you still should do some analysis of who other teams are going to be keeping. It’s possible in your league all the other keeps will be top hitters, so there won’t be a top hitter available to you at 24, your first pick. Marte is the safer pick then because he would be less replaceable, so while he may not have as much of a discount, he could be more valuable to your team than the other options that will be available to you early on.

Because you need hitting.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: Quantity Quality for Quality Quality?

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Rotoman:

Would you trade Shelby Miller and Sonny Gray for Clayton Kershaw?

“Arms Race”

Dear AR:

There is no answer to this question. No thoughtful answer, anyway. You’ve left out an important component: Who replaces Gray when Kershaw replaces Miller?

Without that piece of information it’s impossible to judge the wisdom of this deal. The answer is different if the missing sub is Mark Buehrle or Noah Syndergaard or Bartolo Colon or Jose Fernandez. See what I mean.

Or, since you asked what I would do, I would trade Miller and Gray for Kershaw because I’ve got Jordan Zimmermann on reserve right now. But I don’t know what you’ve got.

But let’s say you don’t have JZ on reserve. Let’s say you would acquire Kershaw and replace Gray with a replacement value starter. That’s a $1 player, expected to earn $1. If that’s the case than you would want Kershaw to be better than the Miller and Gray combined.

So far this year that’s not the case. So far this year Gray is on pace to earn $40 and Miller is on pace to earn $44, while Kershaw is on pace to earn $16.

But you’re not buying pace in your trade, you’re buying future performance. Preseason expectations for the three were starkly different. Tout Wars Mixed Auction paid $36 for Kershaw, and $17 combined for Gray and Miller.

So, you have three questions to answer:

Clayton-Kershaw1Can Kershaw return to form? Of course he can. He’s throwing about as well as he has in the past, but he’s allowed homers on fly balls at twice the rate as last year, and well above his career mark. Still, he’s allowed six homers in 60 or so innings. Last year he allowed nine in 190. That costs runs. He still excels in every category except BABIP. There is some speculation he’s tipping his pitches. There is other talk that he’s throwing too many first pitch strikes, and hitters are swinging earlier in the count to avoid the slider. Hard to say for sure, but both of those things are both small potatoes and fixable. He’ll be fine.

How good is Sonny Gray? Good, but not quite this good. He’s a ground ball pitcher, so it isn’t surprising he hasn’t allowed many homers. But he’s allowed homers on only three percent of fly balls. That number is lower than Kershaw’s rate last year, and should rise to closer to 10 percent. With homers, again, come runs allowed, and the ERA and Ratio will go up.  Gray looks to me like a $25-30 pitcher, which is plenty good.

And what the heck is up with Miller? I’ve often wondered why people give Miller such a bum rap, and have been pleased that so far he’s been showing that I’m right and everyone else is wrong. But it isn’t really true, I’m afraid to say. Nick Lampe at Beyond the Boxscore does a good job of killing the straw man of Shelby Miller’s Cy Young Award candidacy this year, one I wasn’t arguing for, but what matters to you is whether Miller can sustain his $40 season, or whether he’s going to regress to the $2 expectations. Like Kershaw and Gray, Miller hasn’t allowed many fly balls. He’s also allowing few line drives and is getting lots more soft contact than ever before. We don’t know if that’s because he’s taking a new approach or getting better results with his old approach. He changed teams in the offseason and is working with new coaches, which can sometimes make a difference. He’s throwing more cutters and fewer curve balls, which can make a difference, too. Still, he’s not an elite strikeout guy and his control is fine, not great. Even if he gets lots of ground balls, as he has been, he’s going to give up more runs. But that might make him a $15 to $20 pitcher the rest of the way.

Hmm. $25 for Gray plus $15 for Miller equals $40 for Kershaw. If you have a strong replacement for Miller, make the trade. If not, you’re likely treading water unless you land a waiver wire find.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Is Jake Elmore Perfect?

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Hi.

This could be a dumb one but I cant find the answer anywhere. Last week I picked up Jake Elmore. In his first game he went 1 for 1 giving him a batting average of 1.000 on that particular day. If I don’t play him again and remove him from my roster do I retain that batting average towards the category? There’s nothing in my league settings that states you have to use a player a minimum amount of times. Is this a loophole that could be used towards batting average and also ERA and WHIP for pitchers? I really don’t want to question my Commissioner in case I have stumbled onto an advantage. I’m a first time player so I hope I’m not coming across as an idiot. Any help is greatly appreciated. Thank you very much.

“Idiot Wind”

Dear IW:

jakeelmoretwitterThe short answer is that without knowing your league rules, it’s hard to say exactly what having a 1-1 Jake Elmore means.

What can be said with certainty is that your ignorant question goes to the very heart of fantasy game theory when the game is played with category rankings.

That’s because one maximizes the qualitative categories (BA, OBP, ERA, WHIP) by reducing the number of AB or IP relative to productive evens (Hits for hitters, Outs for pitchers) by reducing the number of AB and IP, trying to prune away the bad ones and focus on the productive ones.

jakeelwoodFor instance, a pitching roster of middle relievers would almost certainly win ERA and WHIP, but would do very poorly in Wins, WHIP, and Strikeouts, the quantitative categories.

The challenge of Rotisserie style scoring is to find the balance between these two inexorable and mostly contradictory forces, though the challenge was reduced as the game moved from 4×4 (in which 37.5 percent of the categories were qualitative) to 5×5 (in which they are 30 percent). Still, in recent years a lot of roto thought has turned on how to take advantage of strong middle relievers in 5×5.

Still, it’s hard to see the advantage you’re going to get out of a 1 for 1 performance by Elmore. That’s just one of thousands of at bats your team is going to accumulate over the course of the season, which makes it the smallest of advantages possible.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: Addison Russell at Second Base

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WHEN WILL CUBS RUSSEL BE QUALIFIED 4 2 BASE?

No Signature

Dear Shouter:

There are so many things wrong with your question, they must be addressed.

A salutation isn’t required, but it is nice. I’m fine with just Rotoman! or Hey Rotoman! or Hey! Or even something without an exclamation point.

Secondly, we are too deep into the 21st century for anyone to not know about the caps lock. Don’t use it to communicate. It is that easy. WHY? Because it feels like shouting.

It isn’t that hard to type “for.” Or FOR if you must.

If you’re going to type 2, you might as well type 2B. That gets it done. 2 BASE sounds like a small boy band.

The premise of your question is either impossibly specific or hits the sweet spot of my opinion.

Screenshot 2015-04-27 16.23.16If you want to know how many games it takes for Addison Russell (LL at the end, or I prefer ll) in your fantasy league to qualify at second base, I have no idea because you didn’t say what league you’re in.

And since looking up rules is easier, there is always a link on your stat service, than typing with thumbs, you should look there.

If you’re asking how Addison Russell is performing as a second baseman, since he has always played shortstop until this year, I’m interested, too.

Russell had only played five minor league games at second base before the Cubs called him up to the major leagues. And he’s played five major league games at second base. He made one error in each five-game set, which is too many, but errors are not a fair way to grade a fielder, at least not entirely.

Joe Maddon says Russell is doing a fine job as a fielder at second base, which could be the truth, or Maddon could be blowing smoke. We do know that Russell is a fine shortstop, so any problems he has at the less-demanding second base position are likely due to the learning curve, which he should quickly move along.

The big issue for Russell right now is the bat. He drove in two with a double yesterday, but he’s struck out 12 times in 22 AB. Even for a Cubs player that’s a lot. But Maddon seems fine with letting him work it out, and the Cubs have been winning, so maybe he’ll get a chance to develop his big league talent in the big leagues.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: A Dank(s) House Is Not A Home

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Dear Rotoman:

With Cam Bedrosian (LAA) being called up from the minors, I have a tough decision to make:  I hold both TJ House (CLE) and John Danks (CHW) on my squad.  I think Bedrosian has a closer in waiting feel about him and LAA looks like they will need one before the season wraps, so one of my starters needs to go.  I see nothing on the projected pitchers list about House in CLE and Danks has been stinking up the joint in CHW.  I need innings and can afford a bad outing or two if I can get 6 IP per start.  Your suggestions on who to keep and who to toss? (12 team AL only 5×5 Roto with regular categories, with the exception of S is S+1/2H).

“A Chair”

Dear Chair:

With a 14.14 ERA, why is this man smiling?
With a 14.14 ERA, why is this man smiling?

I’m listening to the Luther Vandross version of the Bachrach-David classic (see below). Thanks for putting me in mind of it.

First off, you might be right about Bedrosian, though if the Angels were to move Huston Street it’s hard to see the job going to anyone other than Joe Smith first. That makes Bedrosian a real longshot, but since your league values holds he has some potential value.

As for Danks vs. House, I had Danks as a $1 pitcher in the preseason, and House as a $5 pitcher. Not much has changed since then.

House is not a big strikeout guy, but gets lots of grounders. He’s been terrible so far, and his velocity is down, but it appears this is more a question of finding a rhythm than health. So, expect him to get back to the decent-enough form he showed last year. Maybe not quite as stellar an ERA, but lots of ground outs and something close to 7 K per 9.

Danks has shown in recent years that as bad as he can be sometimes, he’s not an overall disaster. He only strikes out five or six per nine and shouldn’t be expected to have an ERA better than 4.25.

So, House is clearly to be preferred, despite his cold start. He’s slated to be the Indians starter this coming Tuesday. I can’t promise he’ll go six innings, and would probably have written different advice if the Talking Heads Burning Down the House was the first song that came to mind.

Sincerely
rotomansignature

https://youtu.be/zryovw_FD4Y

ASK ROTOMAN: Travis or LeMahieu

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Rotoman:

I am working on a trade for Justin Upton. The other team wants me to give him Devon Travis or DJ LeMahieu as well as someone else. Who should I give him?

“Give Me A Second”

Dear DMAS:

Both LeMahieu and Travis are on fire right now. The Blue Jays second baseman is hitting .356 with three homers (and no steals), while the Rockies second baseman is hitting .444 (!!!) with a homer and a steal. Needless to say, neither is quite as good as they’ve looked so far.

I feel as if we have a pretty good handle on LeMahieu. He has earned $13 and $14 the past two years, with modest power and stolen base potential. That makes him a solid addition to any team, but not a differencemaker.

devontravisphotoTravis is more interesting. He’s posted solid numbers in the minor leagues, but did so as a collegiate player who was a little old for each level. He didn’t rocket up through the minors, the way highly-skilled players often do.

He’s shown decent plate coverage and strike zone control, and some power, but it isn’t clear how that is going to translate to the big leagues over the long run. My projection for him shows him to be similar to LeMahieu, but with more speed.

But he also is more unknowable. He’s younger, with more growth potential, and is perhaps a little more athletic. That suggests there is a chance he could get better than anyone (except maybe the Blue Jays) expected.

So, I would put it this way: If you want to play it safe, hold onto LeMahieu. He’s got a job, is solid but not exciting. If you want to gamble, hold onto Travis. Maybe the power is for real, the speed will kick in, and he (plus Upton) will make you a winner.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: Kris Bryant is Coming! Kris Bryant is Coming!

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Hey Rotoman,

I am in a 12 team H2H Points league which is very competitive between the guys I work with.

My question pertains to Kris Bryant…I am not going to ask you when is he going to get the call. I am sure you are tired of that.

I have him sitting on my bench and it looks like he is going to (once he gets called up) take one of my two Utility spots. They are right now filled with Stephen Vogt and Brandon Belt. I was wondering which of the two to keep knowing that most likely somebody else would put in a waiver claim on either.

“Get Out The Vogt or Tighten the Belt?”

Dear GOTVoTTB:

The only reason I can imagine you would consider dumping Belt in favor of Vogt is if it’s a good strategy to have a backup catcher available. I wouldn’t do that, so my answer is that Vogt is the guy to dump when Bryant is called up.

Screenshot 2015-04-15 13.26.15When will Bryant be called up? 

This coming Friday is deadline number one. If he’s called up after April 17th, the Cubs will gain an additional year of control before he becomes a free agent.

The next deadline is sometime in June. If he’s called up after that, he will avoid super two status in 2017, and thus won’t go into arbitration until after the 2018 season.

Waiting until June would save the Cubs millions of dollars over the next six years, which is why they might waid.

On the other hand, they’re off to a good start, one game over .500 at this point. Bryant is again crushing Triple-A pitching, to an OPS tune of 1.089. There is clearly little for him to learn in the minors.

Plus, the Cubs are playing Mike Olt and Tommy La Stella at third base. Even if Bryant struggles with big league pitchers, he’s better than either of those two. Which is why I think we’ll see him sooner rather than later.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: Boring or Flashy?

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Dear Rotoman:

Do you think it would be wise to cut Tyler Clippard and pick up Miguel Castro of Toronto?

It is a 10-team mixed league roto league. I look forward to your reply,

“Bedazzled”

Dear B:

Tyler Clippard is the closer on the Oakland Athletics, but has not yet had a save opportunity in this young season. It’s expected that Clippard will return to his usual role as a setup guy once Sean Doolittle comes off the DL, which is expected to be in late May.

castro3Miguel Castro is a hard-throwing youngster who has surprisingly ended up as the Blue Jays closer just a week into the season. He’s a lively performer who already ranks fourth on the list of 20 and younger pitchers with the most saves since MLB went to Divisional play in 1968.

And that’s the rub. We’re in mostly uncharted territory here. Terry Forster had 26 saves in 1972 as a 20 year old, Victor Cruz had nine in 1978, and Don Gullett had six in 1970, all before the era of fantasy baseball. Is a 20 year old with just 15 starts in Single-A last year able to hold onto the closing job all season long?

And what are the chances that Doolittle doesn’t make it back in five weeks, or he cedes the closer job even if he does make it back?

There are no hard and fast answers to any of these questions. What I think we know is that Castro probably has a slightly higher save ceiling than Clippard, but Clippard might be a little more reliable. That is, Castro is the greater unknown here, and thus comes with greater risk, but also has a better chance to get a lot of saves this year.

For me, this seems to be a bit of a sideways move for you. Probably worth doing if Castro is cheap, certainly worth doing if you don’t have to throw Clippard back, but in all likelihood, not a reason to bet the farm.

Edge to Castro.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature