Answers to fantasy baseball questions (and much more) since 1996
Slip over to the Corrections and Updates page for the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Guide for an Excel spreadsheet with updated projections and Big Prices.
The update is for FBG buyers only. The password is the lower case version of the last name of the only $14 player on page 66 of this year’s Guide. You can look it up!
The software is out now, full of projections, bid prices, expert league results, and prospect lists, in Windows software, Excel and Text Files.
It runs great on a Mac with Windows and Boot Camp, Parallels, or Fusion. If you want help preparing for your league, learn more about Patton $ Software and data by clicking here.
And joining Pattonandco.com, a lively discussion board about fantasy and real baseball, is free!
Hi Rotoman,
I was wondering whether there Is a way I can convert the values of this years Fantasy Baseball Guide to fit my 12-team league with $274 to spend?
Thanks.
In fact I do. It’s from 2014 and available on the internet right here, along with good ideas about how to think about prices in shallow leagues.
Sincerely,
I bought the team you see on the left on April 5, 2015, to play in the American Dream League.
It is a keeper league, and I kept Kyle Seager, Kole Calhoun, Luke Gregerson and Kyle Gibson. I also kept Josmil Pinto as my first reserve pick, but he got hurt early in the season in the minors and was never called up.
Still, the other four did pretty well. Well enough to be, arguably, the best kept group in the league. That wasn’t clearly the case on auction day.
Alas, I made three costly errors in hitting on auction day: Victor Martinez (old and hurt and paid like he might repeat his extraordinary 2014 season), Adam LaRoche (got off to a hot start, but also old, and looked it as the season dragged on), and Danny Santana (young and spry but with massive holes in his swing and glove, thus spent most of the year in the minors).
These were all foreseeable outcomes, though none of the prices were crazy considering the players’ 2015 earnings. In any case, I preach it always but in this case I didn’t follow my own advice: Old guys, guys with notable flaws in their games, guys with potential health issues, have to be discounted. Otherwise, you don’t want them.
If you read my comments about Tout Wars, all I have to say here about pitching is, Ugh. I did it again. Kind of. The ADL is a 4×4 keeper league and it is known going in that the top pitchers will be kept or bid up. I priced the top guys aggressively, I thought, but they all went for premium prices. Shut out, unwilling to escalate too much, I got clever and decided to put my money on Alex Cobb, a top starter who was supposed to be back in six weeks. He didn’t come back, and was expensive bust No. 4.
Even so, in mid May I was in second place overall, and my staff was second in ERA and second in WHIP. My hitting was in terrible shape, because of slow starts by everyone. I tried to fix things on the waiver wire, but on April 20, our first week, I didn’t bid on Marco Estrada (who went for $4) and Shawn Tolleson (who went for $0). In the following weeks there wasn’t much pitching available, until Lance McCullers was called up.
I bid, but three teams bid more than $15 out of our $50 budgets. The winning team paid $19. I thought it was too expensive, until I saw McCullers pitch.
As, one by one, my high flying starters combusted, my team sank in the standings. Still, the team that finished last in the draft day standings was in fifth place as late as the penultimate week of the season.
Part of it was the ascension of Eddie Rosario and the resurrection of Shin-Shoo Choo (an old suspect guy who actually went at a discount). Some of it was adding Ben Revere at the trade deadline. I also had Kris Medlen come back in the second half, and picked up Josh Tomlin on waivers. They helped.
Another part was managing to top the league in Wins despite finishing next to last in ERA and fourth from last in WHIP. I had 26 wins from pitchers who had an ERA of more than 5.00 while they labored for my Bad K.
There are two lessons learned here.
1) Take flawed old players at a big discount or not at all. They may not fail, but the cost when they do should be less.
2) If going cheap in pitching, you have to have an ace. If you don’t have an ace you need a broader range of pitching support, which is going to cost more.
Looking at 2016, I have seven keepers max. How about?
Shin-Soo Choo 17
Chris Davis 23
Eddie Rosario 10
Jason Kipnis 20
Danny Salazar 10
Kelvin Herrera 2
Kris Medlen 3
On the Bubble
Salvador Perez 19
Caleb Joseph 1
Last but not least, Walter Shapiro’s Nattering Nabobs kicked ass all season long. They moved into first place the third week of the season, and were never bested after, winning with a 35-year league record 87 points. Here’s the finals (yes, the Palukas passed me on the next to last day, dropping me into the second division):
Which pitcher earned the most in the season’s first four weeks? Dallas Keuchel earned $40.
Which pitcher who wasn’t bought was earning the most after four weeks? Nick Martinez earned $24.
Our best hitter the first four weeks? Nelson Cruz earned $51.
And Tim Beckham is the undrafted hitter who is earning the most, with $12.
Each month we publish the 5×5 roto prices, along with a listing of what these player’s cost on auction day, so you can judge how players are performing versus expectations. This month we let the stats run into May a bit because of the late start to the season.
These are 5×5 stats based on a 24-team mixed league, so AL or NL peculiarities are ignored. This makes the prices a little less exact, because league context does affect them, but the differences are small and complicate issues significantly.
You can find the spreadsheet here on Google Docs.
Dear Rotoman:
I am in a 12 man league in yahoo. I saw on the waiver wire that R.A Dickey is out there and I was wondering if I should pick him up as my back end starter over Henderson Alvarez or Jason Hammel or even Ken Giles?
“Fashion Hound”
Dear Hound:
I love RA Dickey much more than I love dickies.
RA Dickey was born without a UCL, for one. For another, he recharged a stalled out career as a pitcher to become, for one season anyway, one of the best pitchers in the game. He also managed to write his autobiography before that career season, and spent much of his time on top of the world doing things like climbing big mountains to raise money for charity.
He also starred in a fun baseball movie called Knuckleball!
Dickies, on the other hand, were something I wore for some reason when I was a kid, maybe because we were so poor we couldn’t afford an entire turtleneck. What a dweeb!
But that’s the easy question. The question you ask is a little tougher.
Do you want RA Dickey over Henderson Alvarez and Jason Hammel?
I project Dickey to earn $14 this year. He earned $11 last year and $10 the year before. Fantasy experts are paying him about $9 this year.
I project Henderson Alvarez to earn $4 this year, though last year he earned $16. Fantasy experts are paying him about $6 this year.
I project Jason Hammel to earn $7 this year, though last year he earned $14. Fantasy experts are paying him about $5 this year.
So yes, I think you want Dickey, even though he’s old. He’s also a knuckleballer, which reduces the stress on his arm. That said, part of his success was that he was a hard-throwing knuckleballer, and he’s not throwing as hard now as he was during his glorious season. But he’s still effective and probably a better bet than Alvarez and Hammel?
But what about Ken Giles?
He’s not a starter, but he is the closer in waiting behind the Phillies’ most marketable player, Jonathan Papelbon. As a hard-throwing setup guy he can earn $10, but if the Phils are able to move Papelbon he becomes so much more valuable.
I think I would take Dickey for Hammels and hold onto Giles.
Sincerely,
.
As reliable as spring and the cry, “I’m in the best shape of my career,” comes the 2015 edition of Patton $ Software.
The software contains my 2015 baseball projections, my suggested bid prices (and Mike Fenger’s) for 5×5 and Alex Patton’s 4×4 bid prices, prospect lists and expert league draft results, as well as ways for you to enter your own bids, make up-to-the-minute draft lists for your fantasy drafts, edit and automatically adjust the projections and show what players earn with different statlines. In short, everything you might need to prepare to win your fantasy league this year.
There is a new procedure for buying this year. Go to pattonandco.com and register, if you’re not already registered. Click the menu item that says Subscribe and follow the instructions (essentially, click the blue button, enter your payment information, and authorize payment for $36).
Rotoman!
I get 2 keepers – Andrew McCutchen is my first, and I need to choose from the following for my second: Brian McCann, Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Freddie Freeman, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, or Masahiro Tanaka.
“Seconds of Pleasure”
Dear Seconds:
First thing I do is compare my prices for a list of guys with BaseballHQ’s prices. For primarily veteran players, this makes it easy to see if there is a consensus:
Player PK HQ
McCann 13 13
Gordon 23 30
Kinsler 24 24
Ramirez 22 25
Freeman 26 27
Cruz 22 22
Machado 21 17
Cole 13 16
Tanaka 18 17
What we learned here, I think, is that Brian McCann, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado and Gerrit Cole are not keepers for you.
I don’t think Tanaka is a keeper either, since he’s coming back from an injury that often requires surgery, without having surgery. Lots of upside if he makes it work, but too much risk to use for a keeper. (If you disagree, stop here and freeze Tanaka, it’s a risky but reasonable choice.)
Which leaves us, in order of average value: Freddie Freeman, Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez. But from top to bottom it’s close, so you have some decisions to make, because there are some things I don’t know about your league.
For instance, how deep is it? It is a mixed league, clearly. If it’s a 10 or 12 or 15 team mixed league, position scarcity matters, which elevates Dee Gordon over Freddie Freeman. If it’s 20 or 25 teams, Freeman is close, if not Gordon’s better.
If it’s an OBP league, however, Freeman is enough better that you would take him over Gordon, even in a 15-team league. Maybe. Read on.
But let’s assume you play the aging and inferior but more popular BA format. Gordon is more valuable than Freeman, and clearly more valuable than the guys HQ and I have ranked below him, which makes young Dee the obvious keep, EXCEPT…
Except Gordon contributes in one category. In your league is it more helpful to have a 2B who steals 50 bases but doesn’t do much else? Or is it better to have a guy like Hanley or Ian, who will hit double digit homers and steal double digit bases, with a better BA?
If you follow HQ’s guidance (and $30 bid) this is a no brainer, but depending on how your league values steals (and marginal hitting ability, which is what Gordon has), he may be hugely valuable, but he’s surely also risky. Guys who don’t hit lose at bats.
Not that the other guys aren’t risky. Ramirez moves to the American League for the first time, is changing positions and brings with him an injury history that has to be considered, at least, while Kinsler has seen his power and speed decline in recent years, as he has moved into his middle 30s.
Looked at through this frame, you really can’t make a bad choice here, but not one of them is a slam dunk winner. Freeman might be the safest bet, but he plays first base for a team that has stripped away every other offensive weapon. Gordon is the most explosive, if he plays he will run, but if he’s hitting .222 will he still play? Ramirez has the biggest upside. If he stays healthy he could be a 20/20 guy, but he’s not likely to stay healthy, which probably makes Kinsler the safer bet.
So, I’ve talked myself into Kinsler, for all the reasons listed above, hoping he’ll have a year not unlike last year’s, even if not quite so much.
Sincerely,
Dear Rotoman:
As a long time reader of the Guide I find this year’s dollar valuations puzzling. Case in point: Arrieta at $19 and Kennedy at $2. Will the update on March 15 contain new dollar amounts for pitchers or just playing time adjustments which pertain primarily to position players?
“Puzzled About Prices”
Dear PAP:
As a long time reader of the Guide, I’m surprised you haven’t long been puzzled about those prices. But let me explain a bit about the process, and Arrieta and Kennedy especially, after I answer your direct question:
The mid-March free update to the projections and prices in the Guide will reflect my latest thinking about all the players in the Guide, plus those added and subtracted from the pool due to injury or other circumstances. The link will show up here, at blog.askrotoman.com, and will be password protected, so it is only available to those who have purchased the Guide.
Commercial Break: The Fantasy Baseball Guide is available at many book, drug, grocery and WalMart stores, but it has been out now for a month and is sold out in some venues. You can buy the online version at thefantasysportsguide.com. Use the promo code Rotoman2015 and save $1!
Now, back to our regularly scheduled program.
To create the Big Prices in the Guide, which are my suggested bid prices for players, I try to combine two bits of information.
The first is what I expect a player to earn this year. I look at what he’s earned in the past (in Arrieta’s case, $23 last year, in Kennedy’s, $6, -$15, $4 the last three years) and make an estimate.
The second part is to read what the market will be for the player come March, and whether I want to be ahead of it or behind it.
In Arrieta’s case, he had a break out second half last year following an adjustment to his delivery. He has great stuff, and I feel pretty confident that he’ll be able to repeat as a $23 earner. Or somewhere close. I’m sure other people will be more skeptical, so I knocked his price down to a $19 bid price, because I want to own him.
In Kennedy’s case, he can be an effective pitcher at times, but he’s not developed as the dominant arm he showed back with the Yankees when he came up, mostly because he allows a lot of baserunners. I think a repeat of last year’s numbers is the likely outcome for him, in a range, and only want Kennedy if I get him at the very end of the auction. In the Guide Mike Fenger says drop out before he reaches $10, but I think that’s counting too much on improvement. I would prefer to hedge against failure. Hence, the $2 bid price.
Now, I’ve heard from plenty of people who think Arrieta’s unlikely to earn $19 next year, because he allowed so few homers on fly balls, and because they’ve gotten used to him not being very good. I think they’re wrong about Arrieta’s probable success, but what I’m hearing is that the market for Arrieta may be even weaker than I expected. In which case I may drop his price some more going forward. My goal is to estimate what it’s going to take to buy him, and if I want him enough, add enough to get him in most auctions. Unless I bump into someone thinking like me.
As for Kennedy, his team has improved offensively in the offseason, something not included in that $2 bid price. As I work to balance the books, as we get closer to the season, he’s a guy who might bounce up a dollar or two. He’s not a bad buy at $4, but I think he is at $9, though it wouldn’t surprise me if he earned that. It is certainly possible.
You can see updated bid prices at pattonandco.com, by the way, and that’s a good place (once you’re registered) to ask why I’m thinking this way or that.
The final point about the prices is that they are a work in progress. I use them in my auctions, so they seriously reflect my thinking, but I seriously expect you, the reader, to make your own evaluations and shape your auction by second guessing me. You may think I’m crazy about Arrieta, and you might drop his bid price to $12, but you do so knowing that there is at least one person like me out there who would pay $17 for him. If you let me have him at $13, you’re giving me $4 more dollars than I expected to have elsewhere.
Thanks!
Sincerely,
I can’t say his name without thinking of the Lowell George song made famous by Little Feat, “Willin'”, but I’m partial to the cover by Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen. Here it is, a soundtrack for player analysis.
We published our first pass at 2015 roto prices at pattonandco.com (you’ll need a free registration to see it all and comment) last week, and one of the biggest sore thumbs seems to be my robust price for Wilin Rosario. That price, $21, is the same I had for him in the Fantasy Baseball Guide, and is based on the fact that the Rockies catcher earned $20, $22 and $13 the last three years. Last year he struggled with a wrist injury and a viral infection, which explains some of the power dropoff, but commenters are struggling to see how he’s going to get at bats unless he’s traded. And if he’s traded he’ll lose the Coors Field advantage, which leaves him where?
How is Rosario as a catcher? Nobody thinks he’s a good catcher. In John Dewan’s +/1 rankings he was the fourth worst catcher in baseball last year, though over the last three years he escaped the bottom group. So he’s not the worst. But he’s bad enough that the Rocks say he will platoon with Justin Morneau at first base this year, taking the at bats there versus lefties. Losing catcher eligibility is a long-term concern, but nothing to worry about for 2015. This year he’s a catcher.
Rosario can’t hit righties. Against righties he has a career OPS of .707. That’s not so great compared to his spectacular OPS against lefties of 1.009, but it isn’t helpless. While 27 catchers with 500 or more PA over the past three years have a better overall OPS than .707, only six have a better combined OPS than Rosario’s .795. It would be better if Rosario was better against righties, obviously, but he’s been so productive against lefties that on past performance he ranks as a solid Top 10 catcher. He also has the third-best Slugging Average the last three years among catchers overall. He’s a productive hitter, even if he only plays against lefties.
Rosario can’t hit on the road. There are 29 catchers with 500 PA the last three years who have a better OPS overall than Rosario’s .690 road OPS. This is a point of some concern, since part of the worry about Rosario is that he’ll be traded to a team that won’t play its home games a mile high. But until that happens, Rosario is playing half his games at Coors. His overall numbers make him the seventh-best backstop in the game the last three years. You have to worry about a move, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Will Rosario be traded? If the Rockies had a catcher they could go to every day, I would worry about this, but so far Rosario’s competition is Nick Hundley and Mike McKenry. Hundley is a good defensive backstop with a pretty weak bat. McKenry hit last year like he never did before, in a limited number of at bats. At his age, he is an unlikely candidate to repeat. Rosario is a good platoon partner with Morneau and can serve as an alternate to Hundley behind the plate, at least part of the time. That adds up to another 400 AB season this year, I think, with home games in Coors. Which makes $20 or so dollars of earnings a no brainer.
Okay, it’s time for Little Feat’s live version of Willin’ in 1977 on German TV, which is really great.
What’s Rosario’s value? A healthy Rosario has shown $20 and $22 earnings, which dropped last year to $13 when he was sick and hurt. People talk about how he’s declined each of his ML years, but they’re not looking at the offensive context. Rosario earned more in 2013 than in 2012, despite hitting fewer homers. And in 2014 he walked more, if not a lot, improving his approach to the strike zone. It is because of all of this that I expect him to get 400 AB and hit 20 homers. That’s what he does. If he hits .274, that works out to about $17 in earnings, so maybe my $21 bid limit is a little too high.
Every Rosario Has Its Thorn. Wilin Rosario is a flawed hitter. Not so good versus righties, of whom there are way more than lefties, and not so good away from Coors Field, where he may not be a permanent fixture. So it’s easy to see why all the naysayers are dumping him. He’s not perfect, and he’s likely to have some rough times (read: slumps) at times.
Every Thorn Has Its Rosario. But this is a catcher with prodigious home run power, even when he’s not a Mile High. He’s hit 36 homers in 709 AB at Coors. He’s hit 29 homers in 659 AB away from Coors. In a counting game, give me the homers, and the discount of the naysayers.
Conclusion. My bid price in the Guide was based on what I thought Rosario would earn. And the fact is that even at that price, I thought you should want him. The comments, however, suggest I’ve wildly (and willingly) overbid Rosario. Cool! At $21 Rosario was par. At $17 he was safe. The bottom line for me is that 26 year olds with a history of success are good bets not to be terrible. And every dollar I don’t have to pay for them because the common wisdom hates them, is a savings for me. I’m dropping my bid price to $17, because that seems the more likely winning bid price, and better matches his predicted (by me) earnings in 5×5 roto. But his value as a catcher is greater than that, in Tucumcari and Tonapah.
