Ask Rotoman

Questions and answers

ASK ROTOMAN: Getting Ahead in Head 2 Head

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Dear Rotoman:

I have played in a head to head league on CBS sports for the past five years.  The first year, I followed fantasy advice and skewed heavily towards hitters rather than pitchers.  I got destroyed that year.

Mat_Latos_01In this league, pitchers go first and often.  By the time I started drafting pitchers I was left with Mat Latos, Kyle Lohse, and downwards from there.  The best teams in the league had 12 starts for their pitchers each week because they had so many pitchers, while I had 5-8 starts.

Since then, I have sought the best bat available in the 1st round, two aces in rounds 2-3, and a decent player with position scarcity in round 4.  In the next 18 rounds, I target middling pitching, youth (ages 25-32) and OBP.  I don’t draft relievers until late and usually punt 2nd base and catcher.

Any ideas how I can improve my draft philosophy this year?

“Trying To Get Head 2 Head”

Dear Trying:

I guess after taking the standard fantasy advice, things didn’t go much better the next four years. Am I right? So you’re back.

I will not give you standard head 2 head advice, because you didn’t tell me your scoring system, so I can’t get to much into that. But I do have some suggestions I’m sure are worth taking a look at.

Take A Look At History: If the team that wins every year takes an ace starter early, and teams that don’t take an ace starter struggle, it’s probably worth giving the winning way a try. Not only will you end up with a better pitcher than usual, but your opponents will end up with lower-ranked pitchers in their later slots.

Take A Look At Categories: Different providers have different point values for different stats, so it is dangerous to get too specific about values from provider to provider. But CBSsports has a good stat download service, allowing you to download last year’s stats (I think) and definitely this year’s projections. You can then multiply the category values  by the player’s stats or projections in a spreadsheet, add them up, and see which players have real value across the season. One reason starting pitching often has a extra value is because points are given for a Win and a Quality Start and Strikeouts. That makes an ace on a good team a huge contributor when he pitches. Closers usually get a nice bump for a Save, too, though you can often find guys who get saves in the later rounds.

Take The Best Player Available: In auction leagues, you can concoct different strategies for your team by deciding how to budget your money, but in a draft league you want to focus on the best available player with each pick. Early on this is easy, the only questions will be whether you should take players at the less hitting-rich positions ahead of similarly rated guys at 1B and the OF. The answer is almost always yes, but you should always be looking at your next two picks, trying to find the best available talent for those two spots combined. I’m not sure how you’re dumping 3B and C, but my guess is that at some point you’d be better off taking better guys at those positions and scrambling at the end for your last outfielder.

Take Fun Guys Late: The last few rounds are the time to look for high upside risky players. There will always be boring productive guys on your waiver wire, so use those last spots to take erratic starters with high strikeout rates, and the home run hitting prospect who may not be called up until June, or the overall bum who has amazing splits against lefties or righties (or maybe at home versus the road). These types will vary depending on the size of your league and how aggressively owners chase this sort of talent. Just remember that you don’t have to be the most aggressive to score big here, if you study up before your draft.

The bottom line is that you’re going to win if your accumulate the most talent, so the only trick is knowing who has the most talent so that you make the best pick each time your turn comes. Good luck.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

ASK ROTOMAN: Help My 17-Team Deep League!

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Dear Rotoman:

I’m in a 17 team deep league with unconventional custom categories. I don’t have time to do my own custom predictions and valuations — so i’ve been using Baseball Monster to give me a sense of value. Do you know of any other sites that you would recommend higher? Thanks so much!!

“Unconventional and Custom”

Dear UaC,

It seems that Baseball Monster hasn’t been updated since the end of last season, so I can’t test their custom pricing tool. But I wanted to take on your question because it raises some good questions about customized categories and shallow versus deep leagues.

For one, you score every category the same. At least to start.

If you were making a price for Hit By Pitch, you would rank the hitters from first to last in that category. You would subtract the number of times the last drafted guy is expected to be hit from all the draftable players, which gives you the marginally valuable HBP. You can then divide the number of Marginal HBP by the total Marginal HBP and then multiply that times the amount of money allocated to that category (if your league had four categories, that would be one quarter—25 percent—of the money). Easy.

When you do this after the season you get the true value a player contributed in that category for the year.

But when you do this based on projections for the coming year you run into a few problems.

For instance, not every category is equally reliant on a player’s skill. Strikeouts and walks for pitchers are pretty reliable, at least until the pitcher gets hurt or his skills change, but wins, for instance, are not so reliable.

Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw, the game’s best pitcher, has won 13, 21, 14, 16, and 21 games in the past five years, making all his starts each year except last year. His marginal value would have been 6, 14, 7, 9, and 14, which varies wildly at or above the median marginal value (six each of those years) of a fantasy pitcher taken in the auction. In the three years he didn’t win 21 games, his value above an average starter in wins would have been 0, 1 and 3 wins. No great shakes at all.

So, how do you value those wins? Same pitcher, wildly divergent results. I dare say you don’t value them as reliably as you value his strikeouts. Yet in the standings, each category generates the same amount of value. But in Wins those values are compressed around the middle.

Another way categories vary in value is strategic. In the classic roto game, stolen base and saves guys generally cost less than you would expect based on the value they generate in those categories. While some part of that may be risk management, not putting all one’s eggs in one basket, another reason to devalue a category is because it’s possible to gain points in it without spending any money on it.

The ability to avoid paying for steals and saves in the auction encourages some teams to dump out of the category, spending money that might be budgeted for steals or saves on HR, RBI and Ks. Once a few teams do this, the demand for the top guys in these cats is lowered, and prices fall a bit. The category is still worth the same as other cats, but strategic investment creates and opportunity to reallocate resources more efficiently. You hope.

These are just two ways to evaluate your custom categories, and adjust your thinking about how money will be allocated for different players in your league.

Another factor is the deepness of your league. You call a 17 team league deep, but at that level the available replacement player is a starter. Maybe not a very good one, but good enough to fill in and produce when you have an injury. This bountiful replacement pool means that there is no reason to pay $2 or $5 or even $8 for a player. You can do just fine with the proverbial $1 player at a position or three. And what should you do with the extra money you save?

Buy scarce talent at positions where the talent isn’t that deep. Meaning, buy the best catcher, the best shortstop, the best third baseman, oh, and a reliable closer. Buy steals. Your goal is to get the players who do things that other players at their position don’t, and don’t worry about overpaying for them.

Get the best, then fill in as best you can.

Because, while the Baseball Monster pricer (and really all pricing software) might be able to tell you how much a player was worth in the past, it stumbles dealing with the non-linear values of the top players in a league that has a lot of available replacement talent.

The bottom line here is that you can call a league deep or shallow, but there is an actual definition that describes the difference. In a deep league almost all the available players are active on teams. There is virtually no replacement pool.

A league that has a replacement pool of some robustness is a shallow league. Maybe not as shallow as others, but it is a league that has the qualities of the non-linear pricing described above.

 

I’m sure there’s a formula out there to help translate the values of true deep leagues to far less deep leagues like yours, one that stretches the curve appropriately, but the best way for a fantasy player to make the adjustment is to sit down with the price list and to personally reallocate the excess values of the replacement level players to the best players. Adjust them also to better reflect your assessment of talent and the vagaries of your league, too. It is these things that matter more than hard and fast dollar values in a shallow-er league (much as any competently constructed pricer, like the one behind the pay wall at Rotowire, or the one in the Patton $ software we will be selling very soon, can give you).

Is there a free player pricer that works? There may well be, but the ones I used to use are gone. If you find one you would like me to evaluate, let me know. I’m happy to check it out and pass along what I find.

Linearly,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: The Ken Giles File

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Dear Rotoman:

15 team head to head, 6 keeper league. Here’s my roster.

Ken_Giles_comes_setcatcher yadier molina
1b justin morneau
2b dee gordon
3b pablo sandoval
ss xander bogaerts
of starling marte, wil myers, arismendy alcantara
sp cliff lee, cory kluber, jose fernandez, matt cain and 6 other pieces of trash
rp steve cishek, ken giles, and 3 other pieces of trash

pitcher heavy league for points and holds count
keeping (marte, kluber, cishek, ken giles, dee gordon, jose fernandez)

am I making a mistake? Any response welcomed

“Ken Giles Phile”

Dear KGP:

When do you have to turn in your keepers? Ken Giles doesn’t have the closing job yet.

I know it looks smart for the Phillies to deal Jonathan Papelbon, opening up their closing job for Giles, who had an average fastball of 97.2 mph last year and consistently topped 100 mph. Giles improved his control after arriving in the majors last year, so maybe he’s ready. And there was chatter that the Phillies were talking to the Brewers about Papelbon this week, which makes sense since the Milwaukee team has Jonathan Broxton as their putative closer at this point.

Still, right now Papelbon is only crazily expensive ($12.5M, with a $13M vesting option for 2016) for this year. The Phillies would no doubt like to get out from under that contract, but they’re certainly not crippled by it. And if the Brewers (who are on Papelbon’s no trade list) don’t offer much for Papelbon now, it would be an easy call for the Phils to hold onto him and see who needs a top closer as the season progresses. Saving money is good, getting a good prospect is better.

So, it isn’t a slam dunk Giles is going to have the job all year. That makes him a weak freeze at this point. On the other hand, you don’t have a slam dunk alternative, so maybe he’ll end up your best choice. But at this point I would consider keeping a hitter, a choice that depends on the pool of kept players. Molina, Sandoval, Bogaerts and Myers are all less risky than Giles right now, but don’t have the closer’s upside if he wins that job.

What I can’t guess is how badly other owners in your league might vary any of these guys. So while Giles isn’t an obvious mistake, you should look closely and take as much time as you can. There may be a better choice on your roster.

Patiently,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Should I Sit Scherzer?

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Rotoman:

I am wondering if I should start Max Scherzer tonight, September 4th, against the Cleveland Indians? I am not going to win the ‘Wins’ category in my current matchup, but a solid outing from Scherzer could lock me into winning ERA and WHIP. He has had a few shaky starts recently and the games against the Indians this year seem to yield a high amout of runs. Just wondering how you are feeling about that start or if it is too risky?

“Unsure About Scherzer”

scherzer-headshotDear Unsure,

Whatever I say here is going to be wrong, and whatever you do is going to be wrong. That’s Roto Law.

The reason you pay a lot of for Scherzer is because over the course of the season you know he’s going to be real good, even when he has some bad starts.

But things change a little when the Wins category doesn’t matter. Instead of a four category contributor he’s a three category guy. In roto leagues two of those cats that are very hard to move at this time of year. I’m inferring you’re in a Head to Head league, in which case the difference between a good and bad outing from Scherzer could be the difference between winning and losing.

As you say, his last three starts have been poor, and his overall performance against the Indians this year has been weak. So there’s reason to worry. Still, I’m inclined to no overthink it. If the Tigers think Scherzer should be out there, I think he has to pitch for my team if a good performance will help me.

There’s too much time left in the season to start doubting your assets. And I’m sure Scherzer is an asset.

I did check Scherzer’s record against the Indians in 2013, and he was 3-0 versus the team, with a 2.70 ERA. The bottom line on performance versus opponents is the sample is always too small to rely on, even though there may be a decided reason a pitcher struggles against certain lineups. The problem is if he’s just had a run of normal bad luck, his numbers might look exactly the same.

So, stick with Scherzer, I say.

I just wish I could tell you whether you should or shouldn’t take my advice.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Which Pitcher Should I Take?

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Dear Rotoman:

So I’m activating Michael Pineda. I wanted to see his first couple starts, and I’m impressed. So who do you think has the best season going forward – Dallas Keuchel, Ian Kennedy, or do I not add Pineda?

Keuchel has that great sinker/slider. He goes deep into games. Kennedy is a strikeout machine. Although when he’s hit, he’s hit hard. And the offense behind is abysmal.

Both have identical fantasy points to this point.

Pineda is kind of a wild card. He could be great. He has massive potential. His start to the season was great. But he doesn’t have more then a dozen starts in the past 2 years.

I’m stuck Rotoman! I just activated Cole, but it was the worst good news ever, as I put Garret Richards on the DL. Help me finally bring home the ship this year!

“Pitching A Fit”

Dear Pitching:

In the short term I think your choice is either Kennedy, because of the strikeouts, or Pineda, because of the high variance. That is, he’s had two great starts. At most he has another six or seven. Maybe he’s in a groove and will fool hitters for the next five weeks, and will post a ridiculous ERA over that time.

It could happen.

He might also find his new ace control is not a total antidote to balls trickling through and others getting painfully swatted out of the park.

That could happen, too.

Keuchel, at this point, may be a more reliable version of Pineda, but he’s not more valuable than Kennedy, and lacks the strikeout punch, so he’s stuck in the middle. And so are you.

I’ll take Kennedy, he’s got the strikeouts. But the fact is that all three of these guys are borderline in a mixed league and I might take Pineda if I need to get lucky.

One other possibility is to stream these guys, looking for good matchups each week. Just note that Kennedy has been better away from Petco this year than at home.

Sticking pins for the most part,
Rotoman

TELL ROTOMAN: Stay Out of Politics, Write About What You Know.

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Dear Rotoman,

After reading your letter from the editor regarding the Washington REDSKINS I put your magazine back on the rack. Stick to what you know and please quit with the politics.

Respectfully,
Mark

Dear Mark:

Thanks for the respect.

I didn’t realize so many people read my Letter From the Editor before buying the Guide. I’m glad to hear it. I’ve always tried in the Letter to introduce readers to the creators of the magazine and what they’re thinking, introduce new ideas, and promote the idea of the fantasy community, by which I mean the ways that playing this game together promotes fellowship, sportsmanship and creative good-natured smack, because it is a social game. We play it together.

Now I fear that those of you who are taking offense at my Letter this year are making it seem like I went on some crazy rant about the Washington football team’s name. So to be clear, about halfway through the letter, after some stuff about the way the fantasy games have taken hold in ways we didn’t expect 20 years ago, I wrote this:

“What we have seen far more than half of is the debate about the team name used by the Washington football team. While the team’s owner, Daniel Snyder, and the NFL resist, they are being swallowed up by a rising tide of criticism. The name is simply and directly offensive, it always has been to anyone who has given any thought to it, and this is increasingly obvious as the once disenfranchised gain stronger voices. The list of groups and individuals who think Snyder should change the name is long and the arguments in favor of keeping the name don’t pass the smell test.

redskins+logo+petaOne of the best arguments in favor is an old idea, a misdirection like the Statue of Liberty play. The team, it was suggested some 20 years ago, should keep the Redskins name but change their logo to a potato. PETA, of all organizations, created sample artwork.

If Snyder doesn’t bite on that he’s making a big mistake.

While putting together this year’s Guide, we started talking about taking unilateral action. We can’t control what Snyder does, but we can control what we do. So this year your Fantasy Football Guide isn’t using the Washington team name. We’re leaving it out. We suspect you won’t miss it.

And if you do, we hope you’ll otherwise enjoy this year’s issue and it helps you make many victories over friends, old and new.”

I’m still waiting for someone to explain how the name is not offensive, and why it should be retained. I’ll publish their comments if someone steps up.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: How Do I Stay Out of Last Place?

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Dear Rotoman:

I’m new to fantasy baseball and am struggling to stay out of last place.

It would appear I need better hitting in every category, especially HRs and RBIs.  What should I look for when trying to make trades?  It’s obvious the available batter with the most HRs on the season hasn’t helped me at all.

Is there someplace I can “learn” fantasy baseball strategy?

Oh, and while I’m in last place and it’s obvious my buddies are all better than me, is it okay that I still talk smack—or is that not protocol?

Thanks,
“Owning Last”

Dear Mr. Last:

At the risk of saying something obvious, something I’ve never done before, every league has someone in last place. There is no shame in it, but you sound rightly interested in allowing someone else to have no shame while being in last. Good for you.

If you’re a beginner and playing against more experienced players, it’s no wonder that you’re struggling. Fantasy baseball, in each of its many styles and flavors, is a game that requires knowledge in at least a few different spheres.

How well do you know baseball? How well do you know the rules and values of your particular fantasy game? How well do you know probability? How able a negotiator are you? These are just a few of the areas that you need to be able to handle to compete. There are more. Many more.

Which doesn’t mean, as a beginner, you can’t have fun. And it doesn’t mean you can’t have some success, too. A goodly portion of success (or failure) in any fantasy season, is pure luck. Lack of injuries and the unexpected breakout seasons of players influence any single year’s winning results, a lot, while even the best player can be destroyed by stars getting hurt or failing to perform for mysterious reasons.

As a beginner you’re not likely to overcome your mistakes, but if you make some smart decisions you may be able to beat out someone else who has had worse luck than you. That’s the first step toward fantasy baseball competence!

There are many places to learn about the game and it’s strategies. I dare say, starting at the early posts here at blog.askrotoman.com and reading forward, following links to my stories at ESPN and MLB.com, will answer a broad range of questions for you about player evaluation, projecting and pricing players, and league ettiquette. (To answer your question briefly, it isn’t really right for losers to talk smack, but it’s fine to participate in the ribbing and shadenfreude that are inherent parts of any game.)

I also have a site, rotomansguide.com, which is serving as a fantasy baseball resource for beginners and experts.

There are countless articles on the web about playing fantasy baseball. My friends at KFFL have a beginners summary, which talks about many issues for those getting started, and there are many more out there. Not everyone is right about everything, sorting out the good stuff from the lame is part of the process, which will help make what you learn stick.

As to your question about which players to acquire, here are two tips.

1) Specialize. As the season progresses you cannot make up points in every category. Whether you play in a category or points league, focus on the scoring parts of your game in which you have the most potential, and trade off the other categories to improve those. This isn’t going to win you a championship, but it can get you out of the cellar, which is progress.

2) Buy low. Rather than buy the power hitters who’ve hit the most homers on the season, buy the available power (or other category) hitters about whom there were the highest expectations in the preseason. These players were released because they weren’t performing, but unless they’re hurt or have some other obvious problem (they’ve lost their jobs, for instance), you can expect them to play the rest of the way as was expected of them in the preseason.

In any case, welcome to the wonderful world of fantasy baseball.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: My Team Is Terrible. What Can I Do?

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Hello,

I feel like my team is jinxed this year. I have all the underachievers on one team. It’s kind of amazing. Anyways, its a 10-team 7 x 7 league with 4 keepers each year. What would you do with these guys?

Zobrist
Jennings
Myers
Aramis Ramirez
Beltran
Butler
Craig
Segura
and Mauer

They all are playing mediocre or awfully. Not really sure of a move to make here. Thanks!

“Stinky”

Dear Stinky:

I’m assuming your pitchers are okay, since you don’t mention them, but still, this is a bad team because you have mediocre players having bad seasons at every position.

Mediocre, you might mutter, or splutter, trying to come up with a clever riposte, but don’t bother. In a 10-team mixed league, you need to have some stars, and you don’t have any. Look at your list:

Zobrist is maybe the eighth best second basemen. Seven teams have better keystone players.

Jennings, Beltran and Wil Myers were ranked in the 40s among outfielders going into this season. I assume your league rosters 30 outfielders (10×3). We’re talking below replacement level. Good players in baseball, because they have 90 starting outfielders, are not good players in a league your size.

Aramis Ramirez was the 17th best third baseman going into this season. Too old.

Billy Butler was the second best DH, out of three, and probably should have been third.

Allen Craig at first base was in a similar position as Ben Zobrist at second. Bottom three in your league going into the season.

And Joe Mauer ranked seventh among catchers.

In fact, your best player among their peers is Jean Segura, and he ranks sixth among shortstops.

I detail all this not to ridicule, really, but to shine the harsh light of reality on your roster. None of these players is a player you would want to keep for next year, even if they were having a typical year.

Which tells us what we need to know: You can’t wait for a rebound.

You thus have two choices.

1) Try to trade your way to a better team this year. This is a hard thing to do, probably impossible at this point in the year, but a worthy challenge if you like to deal. The secret is to unlock the value you have in mostly name brand players, to make speculative plays on young unproven players who are showing signs of breaking out this year. You might try Gregory Polanco, for instance, who was just called up, if he’s available. For a team so stinky, maybe Rougned Odor would be a good fit.

2) Set up your freeze list for next year. This involves a similar process, but means going for guys who might have value next year. Matt Harvey, coming back from Tommy John, is a illustration of this type of candidate. Risky, but worthless to any team that has him this year, so perhaps cheap now and possibly excellent in 2015.

You know better than I how your keepers are valued in your league. Whichever way you go, and you can combine the two approaches up to a point, be bold and uncompromising. Take risks, but jump only if the possible outcome is excellence. In a league your size, anything less is doomed.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Which Lateral Pitching Move Should I Make?

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Dear Rotoman:

My league: 12 team, categories are r, 1b, 2b, 3b, hr, RBI, bb, k’s, sb, avg, w, L, qs, era, whip, k’s, s, bs, holds

My team:
C- Carlos Ruiz
1b- Anthony Rizzo
2b- Howie Kendrick
3b- Evan Longoria
SS- Xander Boegarts
Of- Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera
Uti- Justin Heyward, Mark Teixeira
Bench- Oscar Tavares, Jon Singleton, Michael Bourne, Brian Dozier
DL- Josh Hamilton
SP- Madison Bumgarner, Jason Verlander, Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, Yovani Gallardo
RP- Krod, Joakim Soria, Grant Balfour, Cody Allen
DL- Andrew Cashner

2 questions: I’ve been offered two deals, one where I would give up Hamilton for Gio Gonzalez and another deal where I would give up Mark Teixeira and get Trevor Bauer.

Also what 2 guys do you think I should drop to activate Hamilton and Cashner with my roster right now or if I were to make either of those deals

“Pitching Poor”

Dear PP:
You’re problem is that Bumgarner had a bad April, Verlander and Hamels are struggling and Cashner is hurt, so you have to play Gallardo.

Solution No. 1 is to put Cashner in for Gallardo when he comes off the DL this weekend. That’s easy.

Solution No. 2 is tougher. Verlander has pitched poorly this year, worse than in his mediocre 2013 campaign. Velocity, strikeouts are down, bases on balls are up. This is a struggling pitcher. Hamels, on the other hand, has been throwing some more walks, but for the most part looks the same as usual. So, expect him to bounce back some. But what do you do with Verlander?

Are either Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Bauer an upgrade? And if so, enough of an upgrade to be worth dealing Hamilton or Teixeira?

While both might pitch better than Verlander, neither is close to a chalk starting pitcher for your staff. Gonzalez is fine, strikes out one per inning, but allows a fair number of baserunners. Bauer is freshfaced, and has been throwing a worrisome number of walks. Either might be just fine, if you had them you might choose to play them ahead of Gallardo, but it’s hard to see either solving your problems unless they get uncharacteristically hot. Teixeira and Hamilton have their flaws, but they are real contributors on offense when they’re healthy. Both seem to high a price for either of these guys.

Before making either of those deals, I suggest you try to pry a better pitcher away from some team, even though there will be a bigger price. You have enough outfield depth to put together a package, or even deal McCutchen and play your depth, in order to land a pitcher as good as Bumgarner.

The other alternative is to use Taveras or Singleton as bait for a hot starting starter without a strong rep. With an extra arm or two you might be able to play matchups, and still play Verlander if he gets hot. Last year, after a strong start, he struggled through June and July, but he was able to right the ship, and finished the season strong.

I don’t think he was taking the velocity hit then. Let’s see. Just downloaded Verlander’s chart from Brooks Baseball.

Brooksbaseball-Chart

Nope. He had other issues last summer. I’d be worried, but I would also try to really get better before trading for guys like Gio and Trevor.

In a league like yours, with so many categories, playing time and category management matter a lot. It’s really hard to tell from outside which of these hitters you should be playing. All of them are fine hitters, who will contribute in some ways and hurt you in other ways. Teixeira, for instance, hurts you in BA but helps you in walks. Michael Bourn doesn’t have a lot of power, but will help you in Triples. And so on.

Good luck finding a better trade.
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: Time Wieters for No Man

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Dear Rotoman:

I have Matt Wieters on my team.  Do you think I should pick up a catcher to replace him or wait to see if he will eventually get better. Replacement Options would be John Jaso, Kurt Suzuki, AJ Pierzynski, Wellington Castillo, or Russell Martin.

“Caught Looking”

Dear Caught:

Wieters went on the DL on May 11th and is eligible to return on May 26th, but so far his elbow still hurts and he hasn’t been able to throw, so don’t expect him to return when eligible.

joeweider-flexing

Reports are that he’s feeling better, but until he proves himself able to throw at full effort without re-injuring himself it’s hard to say with any certainty when he’s going to get back. Right now he’s no strongman.

The range of possibilities extends from a healthy return in early July as a catcher, to an earlier unhealthy return limited to DH duties sometime in mid June, or season-ending Tommy John surgery, probably after it’s decided that he’s not getting better from rest. The value of the DH stint is reduced because surgery will remain an option, should the Orioles fall out of the race.

Since you asked the question, I’m assuming you play in a league that has no DL or reserve slots. I can understand not having reserve lists, keep those healthy players available to all teams, but I think it’s just cruel to force teams to make decisions like this. The uncertainty punishes teams that suffer more injuries than other teams, and most injuries just aren’t predictable.

So be it. Let’s say Wieters comes back July 1 and is healthy. You’ll get $9 of expected production out of him the rest of the way, in half a season, assuming he performs as expected.

You’ll get a little more than two-thirds of a season from the other guys. Here’s what they cost in the preseason and what they’ve earned so far, as well as an evaluation of their value going forward:

John Jaso: ($8, $4) He is the most like of these guys to have a breakout season, beating expectations by a lot. He’s already ahead. Plus he’s earning his breakout without a ridiculously high batting average. Expect $6 more from him, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he put up $8 more.

Kurt Suzuki: ($2, $5) He’s hitting better than .300, but has always looked like a .240 hitter, now playing in a park notorious for stifling homers. He’s not going to be a $15 hitter this year. Expect perhaps another $3, or less.

AJ Pierzynski: ($12, $3) He’s a little bit behind expectations but has such a long and robust history it’s easy to expect him to catch up. He could earn another $9.

Wellington Castillo: ($9, $3) He’s right on pace to earn to expectations, which is another $6. Why not?

Russell Martin: ($10, $2) He missed time on the DL, which puts him on pace to have earned $4 thus far, and thus $8 more the rest of the way if he stayed on that pace. Expect a little less than that, but it’s in the ballpark.

So, your best bets are Pierzynski and Jaso, with Martin a bit behind. None should be expected to earn more in the next four months than Wieters will if he plays three healthy months. If you were sure Wieters were going to come back, you would hold onto him. Or so the evidence would suggest. But the difference isn’t great, and the odds that Wieters won’t return are more than zero.

How much more? If you think they’re 1 in 5 chance, Wieters rates as $7 the rest of the way. If it’s a 50/50 chance, Wieters becomes a $4 player. The real odds are probably somewhere between those two, but you can’t ignore the possibility that he’ll opt for surgery, making him a $0 player. The only scenario in which Wieters beats Jaso or Pierzynski is if he gets healthy and plays the rest of the season as you hope he would. Those odds favor replacing him.

If it were my choice, I would switch to Jaso as soon as possible, but I wouldn’t blame you at all if you switched to Pierzynski instead. He’s probably the safer choice of the two. Either way, make the move, and remember you can always angle to recapture Wieters via FAAB if he does come back.

That wouldn’t be a bad move at all.

Sincerely,
Rotoman