I am wondering if I should start Max Scherzer tonight, September 4th, against the Cleveland Indians? I am not going to win the ‘Wins’ category in my current matchup, but a solid outing from Scherzer could lock me into winning ERA and WHIP. He has had a few shaky starts recently and the games against the Indians this year seem to yield a high amout of runs. Just wondering how you are feeling about that start or if it is too risky?
“Unsure About Scherzer”
Whatever I say here is going to be wrong, and whatever you do is going to be wrong. That’s Roto Law.
The reason you pay a lot of for Scherzer is because over the course of the season you know he’s going to be real good, even when he has some bad starts.
But things change a little when the Wins category doesn’t matter. Instead of a four category contributor he’s a three category guy. In roto leagues two of those cats that are very hard to move at this time of year. I’m inferringÂ you’re in a Head to Head league, in which case the difference between a good and bad outing from Scherzer could be the difference between winning and losing.
As you say, his last three starts have been poor, and his overall performance against the Indians this year has been weak. So there’s reason to worry. Still, I’m inclined to no overthink it. If the Tigers think Scherzer should be out there, I think he has to pitch for my team if a good performance will help me.
There’s too much time left in the season to start doubting your assets. And I’m sure Scherzer is an asset.
I did check Scherzer’s record against the Indians in 2013, and he was 3-0 versus the team, with a 2.70 ERA. The bottom line on performance versus opponents is the sample is always too small to rely on, even though there may be a decided reason a pitcher struggles against certain lineups. The problem is if he’s just had a run of normal bad luck, his numbers might look exactly the same.
So, stick with Scherzer, I say.
I just wish I could tell you whether you should or shouldn’t take my advice.