Ask Rotoman – Page 8

ASK ROTOMAN: Should I WeaR A Dickey?

April 2, 2015 by peter

Dear Rotoman:

I am in a 12 man league in yahoo. I saw on the waiver wire that R.A Dickey is out there and I was wondering if I should pick him up as my back end starter over Henderson Alvarez or Jason Hammel or even Ken Giles?

“Fashion Hound”

Dear Hound:

I love RA Dickey much more than I love dickies.

RA Dickey was born without a UCL, for one. For another, he recharged a stalled out career as a pitcher to become, for one season anyway, one of the best pitchers in the game. He also managed to write his autobiography before that career season, and spent much of his time on top of the world doing things like climbing big mountains to raise money for charity.

He also starred in a fun baseball movie called Knuckleball!

Dickies, on the other hand, were something I wore for some reason when I was a kid, maybe because we were so poor we couldn’t afford an entire turtleneck. What a dweeb!

But that’s the easy question. The question you ask is a little tougher.

Do you want RA Dickey over Henderson Alvarez and Jason Hammel?

I project Dickey to earn $14 this year. He earned $11 last year and $10 the year before. Fantasy experts are paying him about $9 this year.

I project Henderson Alvarez to earn $4 this year, though last year he earned $16. Fantasy experts are paying him about $6 this year.

I project Jason Hammel to earn $7 this year, though last year he earned $14. Fantasy experts are paying him about $5 this year.

So yes, I think you want Dickey, even though he’s old. He’s also a knuckleballer, which reduces the stress on his arm. That said, part of his success was that he was a hard-throwing knuckleballer, and he’s not throwing as hard now as he was during his glorious season. But he’s still effective and probably a better bet than Alvarez and Hammel?

But what about Ken Giles?

He’s not a starter, but he is the closer in waiting behind the Phillies’ most marketable player, Jonathan Papelbon. As a hard-throwing setup guy he can earn $10, but if the Phils are able to move Papelbon he becomes so much more valuable.

I think I would take Dickey for Hammels and hold onto Giles.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Keeper Question

April 2, 2015 by peter

Rotoman:

12 team AL only legacy league. 9 keepers. Approximately 15 percent inflation. Should I keep:

Alexei Ramirez at $20
Shane Green at $5
JA Happ at $5
Robbie Grossman at $2
Masahiro Tanaka at $23 (likely not but I’m a Yankee fan)

Can keep all or none?
“Edgy”

Dear E:

Yes on Alexei Ramirez (a $21 player without inflation) and Shane Greene (a $6 player w/o inflation), and maybe on Robbie Grossman (he’ll earn $2 if he holds onto a job, but things are tight in the Houston OF).

No on JA Happ, who should cost less than $5 in your auction, and Masahiro Tanaka, who should cost $18 to $20 in your auction and will be an injury risk every time he pitches. If Tanaka pitches all season he’ll way outearn his price, which makes him a high risk/high return arm this year.

Sincerely,

Ask Rotoman: Zack Greinke or Mark Melancon?

March 16, 2015 by peter

Rotoman:

Only 4 pitching categories in my keeper league. Wins+Saves is one category…Greinke or Melancon?

“Volatile”

Dear V:

My 5×5 projections for both Greinke and Melancon are worth $17 this year, so I thought this would be an easy one to answer. Combine the value of the Wins and Saves for the pitchers, divide in half, and replace the values of Wins and Saves with that number and bingo. Or voila! Or eureka!

Instead, I’m not sure. I used the Razzball, FanGraphs and Patton $ Online value calculators on whatever projections they used (Grey Albright, Steamer, Rotoman) and found that though the numbers they spit out were different, all favored Greinke. In order: $10.4/$8.2, $7.6/$1.9, $10.1/$7.55.

Fangraphs clearly punishes relievers more for their lack of strikeouts, but I’m sure a closer look would show they’re rewarded more for their low ERA and Ratio. Razzball and Patton were close enough to declare a winner, but I was nagged by the question of population. You see, pricing systems are based on the performance of some group of players. In the regular 5×5 world this means one thing, but when you make guys who get saves more valuable, as you do when you combine saves and wins, the population changes. That changes the value of an earned run, it alters WHIP, it means a strikeout is worth something different.

So, I ran the numbers on last year’s stats using my own pricing calculator.

Last year, in 5×5, my pricer says Greinke earned $21 and Melancon earned $19, Combine Wins and Saves into one category for all ML pitchers, re-sort, and their prices change to $21 and $20.

Which means, if you agree with me that they’re each worth $17 this year, that Melancon gains a little edge in value over Greinke using your rules. But prices didn’t change as much at the high end as I expected they would.

Of course, value is only part of the equation. Keeper questions start there, but always come back to what the guy is going to go for in your league. You want to keep the one you think is going to cost more. That’s a question only you can figure out.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Should I trade my No. 1 pick? For a lot.

March 9, 2015 by peter

Rotoman!

I have the third overall pick in a 12 team league. Twofold question, I have a trade offer of my First Rounder for a 2nd, 4th and Sonny Gray. Is this good? The guy offering the trade is in the 7th slot. Second, if I keep the pick, Kershaw or Stanton? Assuming Trout and McCutchen go No. 1 & No. 2.

“Two Shades of Gray”

Dear Two Shades:

I have a simple chart to show you why you don’t want to trade your third pick for a 17th, 41st and Sony Gray.

Those are the prices, in descending order, for players in last year’s Tout Wars Mixed Auction. The things to notice here are the elegant curve of the line. On the left are the most expensive players, and on the right are the least expensive.

The 20 cheapest players cost $1. They’re that flat line to the far right. After that, the line moves pretty much straight up until you get to the 75th or so most expensive player, and then it starts getting steeper. By the time you get to the first 10 or so players, moving cheapest to most expensive, you’re clawing your way up a cliff.

This is the nature of the shallow mixed auction.

A shallow mixed draft is different. Each player taken in order is the best player available. So the price paid is one step down for each player taken. The line is a straight descending line, not unlike the auction values from about 75-336. But compare it to the auction line and you can see that the first 70 or 75 players are a draft’s bargains. And the earlier in the draft, the bigger the difference between the red line and the blue, which means the bigger the bargain.

I have to admit, Two Shades, from your description, I’m not sure what you’re ending up in this deal you’re talking about. But if I read it literally, you’re trading your first pick and ending up with two second picks and two fourth picks plus Sonny Gray. I hope that’s the deal, because then it is kind of close.

The marginal value of your five picks after the trade is $31, while you traded away $33 of marginal value. Plus you got Sonny Gray! To make up the diff!

But Sonny Gray’s ADP is 78 right now. That’s the magic point where the blue line crosses the red line. Ergo, Sonny Gray has no marginal value above his draft position. Getting him in trade doesn’t really help you at all.

So, not only are you trading more value to get less value, but you’re using up two more roster slots to do it. There is a recipe for such advice. Don’t do it.

Which takes us to part two of your question:

Kershaw or Stanton?

There is a good argument to be made for saying that Clayton Kershaw has the most value this year of any baseball player in the fantasy game. He’s coming off one of the best pitching seasons of all time, at a young age, during which he missed 15 percent of his starts because of injury. And now he’s healthy. Amazing.

So I think it makes sense to take Kershaw if he’s there.

But I also think you should hope that one of the guys ahead of you takes him and leaves you Trout or McCutchen or Goldschmidt.

If you take Kershaw early you’re going to have a heckuva time adding enough hitting to your mix. It can be done, but you’re going to be sacrificing your big hammer, that is the hitter people are willing to bid up. Whether that’s Trout, McCutchen, Goldschmidt or the other big name first round hitter who has special status because he plays middle infield, these are the guys who make up a big part of that value cliff on the auction chart.

Kershaw is in there, for sure, but somewhere there is another chart that shows that more pitchers will come out of the blue and earn $30 than hitters will. And not a few great pitchers fail at some point.

Which is why, with a Top 4 pick I’ll take a hitter. But Kershaw gets very viable after that.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Doing the Newest FAABest Steps!

March 5, 2015 by peter

Dear Rotoman:

As a league that’s been around for 30 years, we’ve played by the rules that Alex Patton established in his book, and have made sure we changed the ones he did in newer books. Since he hasn’t put out a book in several years, many in our league are wanting to know if some of our rules are outdated and need to be changed, dropped or modified.

We play NL, 5×5 (HR,R,SB,OBP,RBI and W,S,K,ERA,WHIP), $280 starting salary, $340 in season cap, 25 players with Farm Team. Three year contracts with extensions at $5 per year. We do $100 FAAB from after All-Star til last week of August. FAAB over $10 must be kept next year or dropped for $10 salary penalty.

Anyway, do you know if most teams still use these same basic rules or have any of them mostly changed. The one I want to modify is to make FAAB all year vs. six weeks. Currently, early in the season, lower ranked teams are “rewarded” by drafting guys that don’t play or will soon be sent down, to wait and see the two or three guys we all miss in the draft each year. The league winner last year screwed his draft and left with $60+ dollars, only to pick up Erving Santana, Hector Rondon and Aaron Harang the first three weeks of the season. Personally, I feel like every player needs to be FAAB eligible so that EVERY OWNER has a chance. Higher ranked teams cannot get these guys for DL selections because lower teams are holding their DL guys several weeks to see if someone good comes up.

Any input you can give us would be greatly appreciated as it relates to how most leagues deal with things these days.

“Old Ruled”

Dear OR:

What’s funny is that I’ve played with Alex Patton in the American Dream League, which was something of the model league in his books, for more than 20 years, and our rules are totally unlike yours. I’ll be brief: AL, 4×4 (BA), $260 budget, no salary cap, 24 man rosters with seven man reserve. One year contract with no escalator. $50 FAAB starting the third week, and then all season long.

Crazy no?

The fact of the matter is that your league is much more progressive, with your 5×5 and OBP, particularly, than the ADL is. Which doesn’t mean that rules can’t or shouldn’t be changed. There’s just no reason to try to conform to any one set of rules, because you can’t. There are people playing in so many styles I hesitate to list them, because I’m nodding off just thinking about them.

Which brings us to your crazy FAAB rule. Yes, I said crazy, because I think you guys have it all backward.

In the old days, before their was FAAB in Fantasyland, the waiver wire ruled supreme. Whoever got their claim in first, when a player “came over,” (as we still say though without the frenzied dialing), would acquire the player. But everyone soon realized that this gave such an advantage to the unemployed obsessive they wished they could be, that weekly waivers became more the norm.

The problem with weekly waivers is that priority goes to the bad teams, the teams lower in the standings, which means they acquire talent that all too often would get traded to one of the good teams, thus making all the other competing teams angry. Hence, FAAB.

FAAB is an equalizer. It gives each of us the chance to make the market on a particular player on a particular day. And if we blow our wad one day, the teams that still have FAAB left have the advantage. Which is why it is perfect tool for leagues to use all season long.

In fact, relegating it to a brief period means there is no warp and woof to the budgets. I would imagine players are traded over from the AL and everybody goes all in on them, and they’re awarded to the team lowest in the standings on the tie-breaker. That misses the point.

I mentioned that in the ADL we wait three weeks to start up our FAAB. This is a vestige of our time before FAAB. We held up waivers until there was some settling in the standings, a bubbling up of talent, a dropping down of not so much, so that good teams off to a bad start weren’t unjustly rewarded. Some argue that since we use FAAB now we could start waivers Week 1, and they’re right. But I resist that.

Having a week or two, or even three, before teams can beef up their rosters is a test for teams that take players in the auction who are injured. The idea is no more an impetus to force them to find a replacement than the Affordable Care Act was intended to compel the States to set up their own exchanges. Rather, the goal is to inflict on them a little pain if they don’t draft a replacement. Isn’t that fun?

As for some of the other crazy new rules the kids are coming up with, OR, don’t get me started. Have you heard of the Daily Games?

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Dump Power?

March 5, 2015 by peter

Rotoman:

5X5 , NL only, 10 team auction league. Have rule where we can keep toppers and at draft can keep them if we bid one more dollar where bidding stops. Am thinking about punting HRs and RBIs.

Have Grenke, Wainwright, Bumgarner, A.Wood, Wacha, all as toppers. Have deGrom at $10, Melencon at $5, Cishek at $17, and hitters Span, Revere, Carpenter, D. Murphy, J. Upton, Polonco, E. Young all as toppers. Suggestions on punting HRs and RBIs and are toppers worth keeping?

“Topper”

Dear Top:

I have one point. Toppers are fun, but they are almost never bargains.

The process of topping in your league turns a 10-team auction into a nine-team auction. That should make little difference, if any, on the prices paid for players in your auction.

This is important because it means you should not plan your auction strategy around your Topper list. Feel to hold onto as many Toppers as you’re allowed. Sometimes the bidding will stop early and you’ll save a buck or two, but more often, at least in the leagues I play in, someone else will bid the extra dollar, knowing that it makes the Topping decision that much harder.

It is your keepers that should determine your how you approach your auction.

deGrom at $10 is a decent keep. Melancon at $5 is a very good one. Cishek at $17 is keepable, but he’s no bargain. Your strength going into auction is that you won’t need to buy any saves.

Your weakness is that you’re going to have to buy everything else. Which brings us to your second question: Should you dump power? Or, as we say, should you Sweeney?

The decision to dump one category, much less two, is predicated on the competitiveness of your league. In a league where all the teams are relatively equal, the expected total points of the winning team will be relatively modest. In that case, dumping may be a way gain an advantage. Win the eight categories other than HR and RBI, you end up with 82 points, which can win a competitive league.

Is that the situation in your league? There’s no way I can know that.

What I can say for sure is that the best time to Sweeney is when you have great closer keepers, and an otherwise weak hand. That’s you, though I would say your closer keepers are just okay, since Cishek is at market value. Still, that’s a fair place to start.

The Sweeney Plan was invented in a 4×4 league. It is very hard to dump HR and RBI and win the Runs category. Here’s why:

Carpenter, Span, Reyes and Yelich didn’t hit that many homers, but they didn’t score that many runs either, compared to the leaders. Nine of the top 11 positions in this list of major league runs leaders went to guys who get paid to hit homers.

Fantasy experts generally say, Never dump a category in the auction! Never!

I’m a little less doctrinaire than that. There are times it makes sense to face reality before you auction. But I’m not sure it ever makes sense to Sweeney in the auction in 5×5, at least if you are trying to win. There’s just too thin a margin for error for the Sweeney to make sense.

Since your team is wide open, since your keeper list is weak, it makes sense for you to look for a competitive edge. I would suggest deemphasizing batting average. Not dumping, exactly, but disregarding BA as a category when you’re evaluating players.

Try to accumulate as many at bats as you can, getting regulars at every hitting slot. In your league, look for top of the lineup types who aren’t stars, obviously.

You’ll still have a tough road ahead. I’m sure you have competitors with much better freeze lists going in. But if you are able to buy enough at bats and a couple of those guys have career years, especially with the batting average, well, ya never know.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Andrew is Easy.

February 20, 2015February 20, 2015 by peter

Rotoman!

I get 2 keepers – Andrew McCutchen is my first, and I need to choose from the following for my second: Brian McCann, Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Freddie Freeman, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, or Masahiro Tanaka.

“Seconds of Pleasure”

Dear Seconds:

First thing I do is compare my prices for a list of guys with BaseballHQ’s prices. For primarily veteran players, this makes it easy to see if there is a consensus:

Player PK HQ
McCann 13 13
Gordon 23 30
Kinsler 24 24
Ramirez 22 25
Freeman 26 27
Cruz 22 22
Machado 21 17
Cole 13 16
Tanaka 18 17

What we learned here, I think, is that Brian McCann, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado and Gerrit Cole are not keepers for you.

I don’t think Tanaka is a keeper either, since he’s coming back from an injury that often requires surgery, without having surgery. Lots of upside if he makes it work, but too much risk to use for a keeper. (If you disagree, stop here and freeze Tanaka, it’s a risky but reasonable choice.)

Which leaves us, in order of average value: Freddie Freeman, Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez. But from top to bottom it’s close, so you have some decisions to make, because there are some things I don’t know about your league.

For instance, how deep is it? It is a mixed league, clearly. If it’s a 10 or 12 or 15 team mixed league, position scarcity matters, which elevates Dee Gordon over Freddie Freeman. If it’s 20 or 25 teams, Freeman is close, if not Gordon’s better.

If it’s an OBP league, however, Freeman is enough better that you would take him over Gordon, even in a 15-team league. Maybe. Read on.

But let’s assume you play the aging and inferior but more popular BA format. Gordon is more valuable than Freeman, and clearly more valuable than the guys HQ and I have ranked below him, which makes young Dee the obvious keep, EXCEPT…

Except Gordon contributes in one category. In your league is it more helpful to have a 2B who steals 50 bases but doesn’t do much else? Or is it better to have a guy like Hanley or Ian, who will hit double digit homers and steal double digit bases, with a better BA?

If you follow HQ’s guidance (and $30 bid) this is a no brainer, but depending on how your league values steals (and marginal hitting ability, which is what Gordon has), he may be hugely valuable, but he’s surely also risky. Guys who don’t hit lose at bats.

Not that the other guys aren’t risky. Ramirez moves to the American League for the first time, is changing positions and brings with him an injury history that has to be considered, at least, while Kinsler has seen his power and speed decline in recent years, as he has moved into his middle 30s.

Looked at through this frame, you really can’t make a bad choice here, but not one of them is a slam dunk winner. Freeman might be the safest bet, but he plays first base for a team that has stripped away every other offensive weapon. Gordon is the most explosive, if he plays he will run, but if he’s hitting .222 will he still play? Ramirez has the biggest upside. If he stays healthy he could be a 20/20 guy, but he’s not likely to stay healthy, which probably makes Kinsler the safer bet.

So, I’ve talked myself into Kinsler, for all the reasons listed above, hoping he’ll have a year not unlike last year’s, even if not quite so much.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: How is a stat service like a nice Chianti and fava beans

February 19, 2015 by peter

All Hail Rotoman!

Is there a ‘3rd party’ available for a weekly FAAB process?

Currently, our FAAB rules require us to turn our weekly roster changes and FAABs into the commissioner on Sunday Nights by 9pm. The league-friendly commissioner, has made that 9pm kind of a ‘soft deadline’ and has on occasion accepted FAABs and roster changes past that 9pm deadline with a friendly reminder to get it in on time. In addition, new job responsibilities have delayed the FAAB results and roster changes until Tuesday, sometimes Wednesday mornings.

My thought here is… IF there is a 3rd party process available, any and all deadline and integrity concerns can be completely eliminated.

There is NOT an integrity issue with the commish. Just looking at alternative methods for assuring that the FAAB process is timely and legit.

Sincerely,
Hannibal Lester

Dear Hannibal,

Almost all stat services have automated FAAB processes. These require that teams enter their claims and picks and moves into the box, via a form of some sort, and at the appointed hour, as the bells strike, the software does it’s utterly rational magic and awards are made.

In the past I’ve used the systems at Yahoo, ESPN and CBSsports and found they all worked well enough. It has been a while, however, so chances are decent they have improved, though I don’t know for sure.

I can enthusiastically endorse the BidMeister at onRoto.com, which is quite flexible and fault tolerant, though it does force you to submit your bids structured as replacement blocks. That is, all your claims to replace your first basemen go in at once, then your claims for a starting pitcher, then the outfielder.

I was at first wary of this, but once you take this into account you can gain most of the control you want by ordering the blocks and using your FAAB.

And this is how a stat service is like a liver, which goes so well with the favas and a nice Chianti. It filters out the labor and toxins of a fantasy league, increases communication and information, making the thing work better, and does so quietly, at least in the best of times.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Puzzled About Prices!

February 18, 2015 by peter

Dear Rotoman:

As a long time reader of the Guide I find this year’s dollar valuations puzzling. Case in point: Arrieta at $19 and Kennedy at $2. Will the update on March 15 contain new dollar amounts for pitchers or just playing time adjustments which pertain primarily to position players?

“Puzzled About Prices”

Dear PAP:

As a long time reader of the Guide, I’m surprised you haven’t long been puzzled about those prices. But let me explain a bit about the process, and Arrieta and Kennedy especially, after I answer your direct question:

The mid-March free update to the projections and prices in the Guide will reflect my latest thinking about all the players in the Guide, plus those added and subtracted from the pool due to injury or other circumstances. The link will show up here, at blog.askrotoman.com, and will be password protected, so it is only available to those who have purchased the Guide.

Commercial Break: The Fantasy Baseball Guide is available at many book, drug, grocery and WalMart stores, but it has been out now for a month and is sold out in some venues. You can buy the online version at thefantasysportsguide.com. Use the promo code Rotoman2015 and save $1!

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program.

To create the Big Prices in the Guide, which are my suggested bid prices for players, I try to combine two bits of information.

The first is what I expect a player to earn this year. I look at what he’s earned in the past (in Arrieta’s case, $23 last year, in Kennedy’s, $6, -$15, $4 the last three years) and make an estimate.

The second part is to read what the market will be for the player come March, and whether I want to be ahead of it or behind it.

In Arrieta’s case, he had a break out second half last year following an adjustment to his delivery. He has great stuff, and I feel pretty confident that he’ll be able to repeat as a $23 earner. Or somewhere close. I’m sure other people will be more skeptical, so I knocked his price down to a $19 bid price, because I want to own him.

In Kennedy’s case, he can be an effective pitcher at times, but he’s not developed as the dominant arm he showed back with the Yankees when he came up, mostly because he allows a lot of baserunners. I think a repeat of last year’s numbers is the likely outcome for him, in a range, and only want Kennedy if I get him at the very end of the auction. In the Guide Mike Fenger says drop out before he reaches $10, but I think that’s counting too much on improvement. I would prefer to hedge against failure. Hence, the $2 bid price.

Now, I’ve heard from plenty of people who think Arrieta’s unlikely to earn $19 next year, because he allowed so few homers on fly balls, and because they’ve gotten used to him not being very good. I think they’re wrong about Arrieta’s probable success, but what I’m hearing is that the market for Arrieta may be even weaker than I expected. In which case I may drop his price some more going forward. My goal is to estimate what it’s going to take to buy him, and if I want him enough, add enough to get him in most auctions. Unless I bump into someone thinking like me.

As for Kennedy, his team has improved offensively in the offseason, something not included in that $2 bid price. As I work to balance the books, as we get closer to the season, he’s a guy who might bounce up a dollar or two. He’s not a bad buy at $4, but I think he is at $9, though it wouldn’t surprise me if he earned that. It is certainly possible.

You can see updated bid prices at pattonandco.com, by the way, and that’s a good place (once you’re registered) to ask why I’m thinking this way or that.

The final point about the prices is that they are a work in progress. I use them in my auctions, so they seriously reflect my thinking, but I seriously expect you, the reader, to make your own evaluations and shape your auction by second guessing me. You may think I’m crazy about Arrieta, and you might drop his bid price to $12, but you do so knowing that there is at least one person like me out there who would pay $17 for him. If you let me have him at $13, you’re giving me $4 more dollars than I expected to have elsewhere.

Thanks!

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Shining A Macho Light on Yasiel Puig

February 18, 2015 by peter

Dear Rotoman:

In a 5×5 12-team mixed-keeper league with five keepers where you can keep a player for up to three years, would you make the following deal:

I trade an extra 5th round pick and release either Manny Machado (2yrs left), Jorge Soler (3 yrs left) or Xander Bogaerts (3 yrs left).

And I get Puig with 2 years remaining.

Is giving up one of my fifth round picks and one of those players worth 2 years of Puig?

“Puigilist”

Dear P:
I have one hand tied behind my back because I have no idea what the value of a fifth round pick is. If all 12 teams keep five players, that’s 60 players gone. Another four rounds gone is 48 players, which would mean the fifth pick would be somewhere between the 108 and 120th best player.

Based on the consensus Average Draft Position at FantasyPros.com, that would be a player like JD Martinez or Mookie Betts, Lance Lynn or Steve Cishek.

Puig is ranked 24th in the consensus ADP, while Machado is 138th, Soler is 111th, and Bogaerts is 182nd.

It isn’t clear to me what you get back for that fifth pick, but even if it was the 23rd round pick, I think you would prefer Puig and the 23rd round pick to Bogaerts and JD Martinez or Mark Trumbo.

Remember, the rule of thumb is, you almost always want to be on the side of the trade that gets the best player, especially in a relatively shallow league, as a 12 team mixed is.

Sincerely,