Ask Rotoman

Questions and answers

2002 Tout Wars Draft

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Ask Rotoman :: Yeah, 2002

I have to admit, I was giddy. I wrote up who I was going to buy and why the night before the 2002 Tout Wars draft, and then submitted commentary later about why things changed.

They changed mostly because Albert Pujols went for $28. We have to adapt.

Still, even with a $28 Pujols my askrotoman.com squad finished fifth, as it had in 2001 and 2000. For some reason revealing who I was going to buy before the auction didn’t get me a better team. It got me a mediocre one.

Revisiting the 2002 draft story reminds me that we inevitably spout all kinds of booshwah because we’re excited and interested and we can. And we know stuff. The future careers of baseball players is in their hands. We get to judge, but they get to gloriously prove us wrong.

Those are the moments we should live for.

The Patton $ on Disk 2008 page

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The Patton $ on Disk 2008 page

The newest  updates to the P$oD08 have been posted. These include mostly fixed team and league data, updated projections, and bid prices from Alex Patton (4×4), Mike Fenger (5×5), and me, Rotoman, Mixed league 12 team.

You can use the program, which runs incredibly fast on all Windows machines (including those Intel Macs that have Windows), or you can choose to use the accompanying text and Excel files.

In either case you get bid lists and up to date projections for all draftable players this season. And free updates through the week after opening day.

Ask Rotoman: Head-to-Head How-To

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Rotoman…As always I appreciate your advice….I have been doing rotisserie leagues for a long time now, and have always had pretty good success…however, the past two seasons I have been in two head-to-head leagues and have finished poorly both times…

Is there a different strategy or different players you target in head-to-head leagues? My teams always seem to have a good run for about 5-6 weeks in the middle of the season where everyone is hitting and my team dominates, but my teams always seem to go through an end-of-year slump and lose when it actually counts (in the end of the season and the playoffs)…

Help,
“Gimme H2H”

Dear Gimme:

The only Head to Head game I’ve played, apart from Strat-o-matic, is Scoresheet, so I’m no expert. Strat and Scoresheet are great games, but they use different rules than roto and points based fantasy leagues, so the H2H doesn’t really translate.

While I’m not expert, I host a discussion board that is frequently visited by some really smart and talented fantasy players who, it just so happens, recently started talking about H2H. You can find the thread here.

One thing I know for sure because I studied it in regards to fantasy football, which SteveP affirms in his encyclopedic posts at the end of the thread: Streakiness doesn’t matter. Collect the best aggregate stats you can and be done with it. Your results will rise or fall depending on how lucky you were. The H2H format increases hugely the luck factor in the final results, but there isn’t anything you can do about that.

You want to get the most stats, and this thread at the Ask Rotoman Discussion Board will help you get them.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: 10 Valuable AL Guys Not on a ML Roster on Opening Day — Maybe

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Hi, My draft is on this Sunday & it is an American League ONLY draft. You have been of much help in the past & I was wondering if you could again help me out AGAIN? Could you give me a list of 10 players that will have an impact this year in fantasy baseball that will not be on a opening day roster? “Minor Key”

Dear Minor:

I have no idea if I can give you 10 from the American League, and even though you don’t care about the National League, I think I should list some of them, too. Tomorrow. For now, let’s go through the AL rosters and see what we come up with:

AL

Yorman Bazardo had a good run with the Tigers last year. His father died just as Spring Training was getting under way and he’s behind in his work. He’s a control pitcher whose rates haven’t changed dramatically as he advanced, which is a good indicator of major league success. Too bad he doesn’t have a better punch out. Okay, I admit it, I like his name.

Clay Buchholz on the other hand has an arm, plus he has a no hitter already. You have to like that. The Red Sox trip to Japan creates interesting possibilities for roster management and I’d be lying if I said I’d thought them all through. Buchholz is the youngster and at the back of the rotation, if he’s in the rotation. It wouldn’t be a surprise if was sent down for a few weeks at the start of the season.

Anthony Swarzak has a great arm but is a little lacking in experience. He’s certainly not going to start the season in Minnesota, but depending on how things work out he could end up there. The Twins are not super aggressive with promotions, usually, but Swarzak is further along than most. There is a chance he’ll get a shot this year, and that means he could contribute.

Kevin Mulvey went to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal. Unlike Swarzak, he didn’t spend 50 games on the bench last year after testing positive for recreational drugs. He’s not as dominant an arm as Swarzak and doesn’t have near the ceiling, but if he doesn’t make the Twins rotation out of camp he’s likely to get a shot at it before Swarzak does.

Gio Gonzalez struck out 185 guys in 150 Double-A innings last year, and while he walked a fair number of guys (57) he kept the ball in the park, didn’t allow many hits, and got the job done. He’s way young and the A’s aren’t in a big rush to hurry him along, but stuff happens and he’s close to ready.

Nick Adenhart doesn’t have Gonzalez’s heat, but he’s got a well-rounded set of pitches and he’s learning to use them. He’ll start the year in the minors, but if anything disrupts the Angels’ rotation he’s likely to get a trial. Good luck.

On the hitting side…

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a lot of major league at bats, but he’s not a good catcher and the Rangers went and signed Ben Broussard to play first base. His bat should work in the major leagues now, but it makes sense for the Rangers to send him down to either get better as a backstop or tackle a new position.

Carlos Quentin has been slow coming back from shoulder surgery, and Jerry Owens will almost certainly be the White Sox left fielder on opening day. This opens up the possibility that the Sox could option Quentin to get some regular playing time. While an extended spring training gig is an option, Quentin’s not really hurt badly enough for the DL. Let him play!

Wladimir Balentien has a double and a homer in his three major league plate appearances. He’s shown good patience and an aggressive bat in his career overall. The Mariners clearly think he needs some more time, though he made big strides last year. Presumably they think their pennant run this year will be helped more by Ibanez and Wilkerson, but when they drop out of contention Balentien will be the guy who comes up and impresses. That’s my prediction.

Evan Longoria is not only a hitter but also a first rate defensive player. He’s having a big spring, but the Rays may decide to have him start the year in Triple-A because he’s young and perhaps they don’t want to start his career clock and salary just yet. But he’s ready now, and will be the top Rookie prospect not in the AL at the start of this year if he doesn’t start the season in St. Pete.

Brandon Wood doesn’t have a place to play right now and should start the season in Triple-A. He’s got huge power, but he has struck out an alarming amount of the time in the minors. Some scouts think that’s going to be a problem, others say he’ll be fine. There’s a good chance he isn’t going to get a real chance in the majors this year, but an injury or trade or two could open up an opportunity mighty quick. And when he plays he’ll hit home runs. Fer sure.

That’s 10. I’m sure I missed some good ones. Like Luke Hochevar, who is going to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s not really ready anyway. David Price was the No. 1 in last year’s draft, and is supposed to be ready soon. Jeff Clement will start the season playing in Tacoma, but if the Mariners trade Johjima after they fall out of the race he could be the starter at any time. That’s 13. I’m out of here.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Royals 1B/DH

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A friend asked me the other day about depth charts, and wondered which had the most reliable information. I said that I didn’t really know about the best, but that I used Rotowire (because I pay for it) and MLB.com (because I’m there) mostly. He wrote back that he wasn’t a Rotowire subscriber, but checked out some others and couldn’t understand why MLB.com had Schilling as the Red Sox second starter and other inconsistencies with the spring news, which got me to thinking…

Over the next couple of weeks I’m going to look at some of the spring’s positional and role battles through the lens of the various depth charts available to me. That means free services and Rotowire and BaseballHQ are in play.

I hope we’ll learn something about depth charts, the services, and most important, who’s going to play this season. Let’s start with the Royals’ first base/dh battle.

The candidates are Billy Butler (535), Ross Gload (477), Ryan Shealy (162) and Justin Huber, who is converting to the outfield this year because of the logjam ahead of him. My playing time totals reflect the conventional wisdom, with Gload and Butler the putative starters and Shealy a sub or elsewhere.

Rotowire has Gload as the first baseman, Butler his backup, followed by Teahen and then Shealy, with Butler as the DH with Gload as his backup. For some reason they have Esteban German as the third string DH.

MLB.com has the same order at first base, but doesn’t include Gload at DH (just Butler and German).

Yahoo’s minimal approach puts Gload and Shealy at first, and Butler at DH.

ESPN, which is maximal, has Gload followed by Butler, Shealy and Teahen at first, and Butler, German and Gload at DH.

Rototimes.com comes to the rescue of creeping boredom, listing Shealy as the starter against lefties and righties (so far the only service to include platoon info), with Gload and Huber as subs at first base, and Butler as the DH. They also list the Triple-A guy at the position, if there is a meaningful one.

Rotoworld.com has Gload the 1B starter and Shealy his backup, with Butler as the DH.

SandlotShrink.com also has Gload and Shealy at 1B, with Butler the DH.

USAToday.com has the same.

Drafthelp.com has Gload and Butler as the starters and doesn’t rank reserves.

BaseballHQ.com has the neatest information, as it were. They give playing time percentages for each player. At first base Gload (60), Shealy (20), Butler (10) and Teahen (10). At DH Butler gets (65), Huber (10) and Guillen (5). I assume DH doesn’t add up to 100 because of interleague games, though that wouldn’t account for 20 percent of the plate appearances as implied here.

sportsline.com throws us a little curve, putting Butler, Gload, Shealy at first base (in that order) and Gload, Butler, Huber (in that order) at DH.

What did we learn? Everyone except Rototimes is lock step on this one. They’re declaring their affection for Shealy out front. I like him this year, too, though as a sleeper pick who could emerge if there’s an injury or either Gload or Butler gets off to a bad start. As a result I’ve knocked Butler and Gload down about 120 plate appearances total in my projections, and given those to Shealy.

1B: Gload, Shealy, Butler

DH: Butler, Shealy, Huber

And, it should be noted, that the Royals have too many players. Huber is out of optioins, I believe, and German becomes expendable with the arrival of Callaspo, so either Shealy or Huber could end up elsewhere.

Patton & Co. is Free

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Patton & Co.

Sign ups have been slow and we don’t know why. If you haven’t signed up please let me know your thoughts. If you tried it out and stopped using it I’d like to know why, too. I’m constantly impressed when I get over there about the information on players, so I feel like the product has a use, especially since the level of postings has been really good.

Now, there will be no pay mode until well after the season starts (and I personally think the model works better with no pay mode at all, at least for the comment database, so I’m arguing for that).

So please check it out if you haven’t, and let me know what your problems are if you have and stopped. Write to askrotoman(at)gmail.com.

Thanks.

Patton$ on Disk 08 is here.

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Support Ask Rotoman Page

The link takes you to the page where you can now download the software, Excel and Text files (after paying, of course).

If you’re a past user of the software you’ll be getting the same Windows program with this year’s data, updated weekly through the first week of April.

New users should know that the P$oD software runs superfast in Windows, but comes with a bit of a learning curve. It is designed specifically for draft preparation, though it also comes with an auction module for use during your draft. Note that all the data is available outside of the program, too, and many people who buy the package never run the software at all.

Play Like the Pros: And in the end… – Fantasy Baseball

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ESPN

One of the roto writing highlights this year was Nando DiFino’s Play Like the Pros column at ESPN. Given the task of covering the stultifying business of expert league waiver claims he found wit and insight by the barrelfuls. The season’s last entry is a compilation of what the rest of us had to say about our mostly miserable seasons.  Not as witty or insightful perhaps, but a measure of what some of us think made or broke our teams this year.