peter

Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

Is a Cubs title in the cards?

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Jeff Passan – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

I guess I should make Jeff Passan a category. He’s consistently right about things, writes well and is sometimes, like in this comic look at recent Cubs’ history, very funny.

I’m not sure what to make of Soriano moving to center field. After the initial reluctance he seemed to adjust to left field. He’s fast enough to chase stuff down out there, so I suspect it could work (with some miscues).

As for the money, it’s funny. None of it makes any rational sense. Maybe the Cubs got better this week, maybe not, but at least the scratch is going to the performers.

How much is Matsuzaka worth?

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The Hardball Times

As usual, David Gassko does a great job breaking down the components. But, of course, I have quibbles. . .

It isn’t clear to me why there is little chance of Matsuzaka breaking down. It seems to me some significant portion of the risk is that the pitcher breaks down, no matter how convincing the history is.

He doesn’t address the explosion of revenue that accrues when you win. Tampa Bay might generate more revenue winning 80 games than 70, but that bump is tiny compared to the bump you get (I’m assuming) going from 87 to 97 wins and winning the World Series.

The risk in this scenario is different than the one for a team trying to compete (rather than win the whole enchilada).

With so much money in the owners’ pockets it’s hard not to think that the concept of “value” is pretty much dead.

Padres Deal Barfield!

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Padres trade 2B Barfield to Indians for two prospects – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

At Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Arizona Forum over the weekend, Blue Jays scout Kimball Crossley and Baseball HQ prospect analyst Deric McCammy looked at videos of Arizona Fall League players and analyzed their mechanics and predicted their futures.

Crossley said he never looked at video and was a little put off watching from the side angle (first base) rather than behind the plate, but that didn’t keep him and McCammey from gushing over Kevin Kouzmanoff. Both analysts like his swing, like his power, like his body and like his makeup, which is enough for me to say that maybe the Padres didn’t get taken in this trade.

Neither analyst thought Kouzmanoff would be a star, and while Barfield probably isn’t going to be one of the elite either, he’s a top notch defender at a middle position who has proven he can handle big league pitching.

No knock on Kouzmanoff, really. Seeing him play in person, well actually seeing him hit in person, makes you believe that he will hit. But he’s a slow runner who will be average at best in the field. And he’s older than Barfield.

The Padres got a pitcher, too. Andrew Brown is out of options. This is the third time he’s been dealt for a big league hitter. The first two were Gary Sheffield and Milton Bradley. He may well end up having a big league career but at this point that’s all.

Pro Baseball in Italy

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Pro Baseball in Italy

My friend Lisa, who has spent a lot of time in Italy, sent me this link a month or so ago. The phenomenal thing is not only that he wrote only one post, but that it is of some interest to all of us who love baseball.

But I sure wish he’d tell us more of the Italian game.

Tigers dazed and confused – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

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Tigers dazed and confused – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

I’ve spent enough time praising Jeff Passan this year that he should have his own category, but not yet.

This analysis of the Tigers’ woes makes for nice theater (read: column) but ignores the reality. There is no hope of really measuring a team’s abilities (and disabilities) in a seven-game series.

That fact makes it hard for baseball writers who have to maintain the pretext of, um, what may we can best call “inevitability.” But as sports consumers we shouldn’t buy into the drama they have to create to do their jobs. Not that it isn’t entertaining, and even sometimes meaningful, but because the purveyors of this news make it hard to tell the difference.

There is some hope

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Anyone who has been checking in regularly (or irregularly) probably noticed some funky doings here lately. By arduous trial and error I seem to have learned enough mySQL to be able to see the light up ahead. And it doesn’t look like an oncoming train.

Thanks for your patience. With production getting underway on the magazine (The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2007!) there probably won’t be a lot of action here. But (knock on wood) at least it looks like things are working.

Fantasy Football: Draft Tips

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RotoRob

I’m not sure I should admit this, but I’m participating in my first fantasy football draft tonight. So, while looking for tips I came upon this pleasant advice from a guy named Andy at the site of a friend, Rob Blackstien, who has worked as editor and writer on both Fantasy Guides. I was worried about tracking Bye weeks, but Andy has made me a little less afraid. Now it’s time for a beer.

And, to be clear, Ask Rotoman will not become a fantasy football site (though you should check out the discussions at talk.askrotoman.com if you’re interested).

Time for Heads to Roll?

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Baseball Musings

When I started reading this David Pinto post I started getting irked by his blunt attack on Ricciardi, accompanied by some good but not-climactic quotes.

But the real point here is his extension of Bill James’s idea of Families of Managers, from James’ excellent book “Baseball Managers” (who came up with that title?), and a rather potent idea that Joe Torre (the 2nd act) is the father of a Third Way of managing.

There has been much to criticize Torre for the last few years, but his approach has been direct and consistent, which is what gives Pinto’s idea legs. History will tell us more about Willie Randolph and Joe Girardi as managers than we know now, but their success this year makes Pinto’s thesis well worth discussing.