As usual, David Gassko does a great job breaking down the components. But, of course, I have quibbles. . .
It isn’t clear to me why there is little chance of Matsuzaka breaking down. It seems to me some significant portion of the risk is that the pitcher breaks down, no matter how convincing the history is.
He doesn’t address the explosion of revenue that accrues when you win. Tampa Bay might generate more revenue winning 80 games than 70, but that bump is tiny compared to the bump you get (I’m assuming) going from 87 to 97 wins and winning the World Series.
The risk in this scenario is different than the one for a team trying to compete (rather than win the whole enchilada).
With so much money in the owners’ pockets it’s hard not to think that the concept of “value” is pretty much dead.