peter

Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

David Luciani Writes…

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A Message from the Editor published February 4

The link here is to an editors letter from Baseball Notebook’s David Luciani in which he declares he’s retiring from baseball writing after this season because of the trouble he’s had with anonymous posters challenging his record in prospect prognostication.

I don’t know the facts in this case. David was an early advertising supporter of this site, but he never earned his money back from the ads, for what that’s worth. What I do know is that whether stuff is printed on paper or the electronic ether of the internet, there are hard copies out there. If you have a file with old Baseball Notebook prospect reports print outs I’d like to see them.

Based on our intermittent dealings I like David Luciani, but more importantly I’d like to see some actual facts in this case. Charges without factual support are reprehensible. If you have information that supports either side in the matter please let it shine.

Major League Baseball : Ask Rotoman Begins

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Major League Baseball Fantasy Home

This link doesn’t lead to anything now except the fantasy page at MLB.com. Well, MLB.com is still commenting on offseason moves, helpfully, and you’ll find those at this address. But starting on Wednesday you’ll find Ask Rotoman again for the Sixth Year In A Row! As much as I like spouting off on baseball issues and giving my opinion about fantasy moves, the best stuff in the column comes from you readers. Funny questions, provocative questions, challenging questions, these don’t always make my job easier but they make the column better. So if you have a good or funny or outrageous or clever or provocative question, please send it along by writing either to peter@askrotoman.com or visit the discussion board at talk.askrotoman.com and post there. Thanks.

The Best Projections in the Universe

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Baseball HQ: HQ Today

I received a copy of John Burnson’s Graphical Pitcher 2006 today from Amazon. No time yet to delve deeply into charts, which present a cognitive problem, at least at first. How to absorb a ton of information until you speak fluently the local dialect? I did read all the text, which is informative and entertaining (as the ultra-bright and engergetic Burnson always, in my experience, is). But the real wow is a study he (they?) published at baseball HQ last year after randomly drafting gazzilions of virtual fantasy teams, calculating virtual standings, and tracking which players appeared more often on winning teams.

This is a brilliant way to solve so many player valuation problems, one that was hinted at when roto stat service pioneer Jerry Heath published which players appeared most often on the last place and first place roto teams in the leagues he served. But taken to this level I believe it qualifies as original rotisserie research, which is a rare thing and about the highest praise I can give.

Which got me to go to baseballhq.com looking for the original article. I didn’t get to WOW before stumbling over this article Ron published in his free weekly newsletter last week. It doesn’t say much more than last year’s “Player Projections are a Crock” article did, but he says it more vehemently. I agree with him, as you know if you’ve been coming here regularly over the past few years, but I think he’s giving short shrift to the key role of the fantasy tout, which is to identify not only which players are going to get worse or better but which are going to get the most better or worse relative to public expectations.

The most important number to know, if you could, would be what price a guy is going to go for in your league.
The second most important is to know how to maximize each player’s contribution by putting together a solid roster. Ron has long focused on this in very constructive ways, but Burnson’s article in The Graphical Pitcher 2006 (and presumably archived somewhere at baseballhq.com) makes you say, “Wow.”

Strategies of Champions: Rotoman Regulars 2005

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Ask Rotoman » Strategies of Champions: Rotoman Regulars 2005

Anthony Beaulieu won the 2nd Annual Rotoman Regulars League, and with some encouragement from me wrote a Strategies of Champions piece about how he put together his winning team. Confusion about the due date and some last-minute ads nudged the piece out of the magazine, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth a look. I don’t think anything teaches us more about strategy than learning what actual champions did to win their league.

OddJack, the Gambling Guide – Casino, Poker, Sports Betting, Horse Racing

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rotoman says give up on Victor Martinez

Actually, what got me interested in this post, was that Oddjack called me “salmon-pants Rotoman.” I own salmon pants (though my fashion consultant calls them “tomato,” and I only occasionally wear them, preferring black and slate). But how would Oddjack know that? My imagination scares me.

More egregiously, Oddjack seems to suggest that I suggested last June that Players (note capital P) should give up on Victor Martinez, when the gist of my post was absolutely the opposite. If you bailed on VM last June, blame Oddjack. Not Rotoman. And check the link. I never said it.

I do think Oddjack is a fine moniker.

The Short of It

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Fantasy: Top 20 Shortstops For 2006 — The Hardball Times

The laudable Hardball Times has a Top 5, and I have a Top 5.

Theirs: Jeter, Young, Reyes, Rollins, Lugo.

Mine: Young, Furcal, Tejada, Jeter, Rollins

Not huge differences, except I have Rollins at $30 and the next guy, Reyes, at $24. I’m sure Lugo doesn’t belong in the Top 5, and while I wouldn’t rule out Reyes doing it again, I wouldn’t pay for it. And I’ve loved Lugo longtime.

What does this mean? Not that much. In any roto auction Tim Dierkes would be more likely to end up with Lugo or Reyes and I’d be more likely to get Tejada or Furcal. And both of us would be scrapping for a number two.

I used to like Lugo in that role. Now, after a few years of getting burned, I’m going for Edgar Renteria, if his price has dropped enough.

Jenks’ed

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ChicagoSports.com – Closer or setup suits Hermanson

In most keeper leagues Dustin Hermanson is not going to be available because of his low price, even if he begins the season as a set up guy. Or should be.

Hermanson says here that he feels good and has worked hard to overcome the back problems that interrupted his 2005 season as a closer. Still, Bobby Jenks has a history of injury and wildness and given his youth and the high stakes in Chicago this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he stumbled.