The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2017 Projections Update Is Here.

Actually, it was here a week ago, but a screwup on my part made it very hard to find.

If you would like the FBG projections and prices update, it is here. The password is the last name of the first player profiled on page 90 of the 2017 Fantasy Baseball Guide. It is case sensitive.

You do not have to sign up for Dropbox, or even sign in, to download the file.

You can track what changes I’ve made to the projections since March 15 here.

Corrections for The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2017

fbg2017-cover-largeFirst off, if you want to read the Mock Draft Commentaries, go here.

If you would like the FBG projections and prices update, it is here. The password is the last name of the first player profiled on page 90 of the 2017 Fantasy Baseball Guide. It is case sensitive.

This is the place where I’ll post corrections and updates to the 2017 Guide. There is a link in the top nav bar, so you can always find it.

Page 6:  Talking about team names, as we do sometimes, Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito were traded from Boston and Washington respectively last winter. While the team changes for both, to the White Sox, made it into their capsules, the wrong team names linger on this page of rookies.

Page 6: Very embarrassing. The photo credit is wrong. The picture of Yoan Moncada is by friend and new contributor Buck Davidson. I’m sooo sorry Buck, and will get a fixed PDF for you to use as a clip.

A Reader Writes:

The Fantasy Baseball Guide is a great pub and is most useful.  I have one question and one suggestion:

Q. It appears to me that Matt Moore’s “Big Price” of $14 is not consistent with his projected stats of 4.44 ERA and 1.35 Whip.   I believe his Win and K totals of 11 W and 127 K are very average.  I understand he has upside potential, but it appears too me that the $14 projection is not supported by your projections. Please explain.

S. It seems to me it would take little effort on your part to include the player’s team either in the “Player’s by Position” section or the Full Profiles.  I play in a hybrid NL + 2AL teams (Houston and Texas) and many of us have limited knowledge of other AL players.  I understand there will be changes between the start of the season and your publication date, but that’s not near the problem of having no idea of the player’s team (and whether or not he is on one of our teams).  Please consider including the team for each player.

Thank you for your consideration.

Dear Reader. The projection in the Guide was the mechanical projection that derived from Moore’s history, and as you note looked rather pessimistic for a player I’m fairly keen on and three other writers made PICKS of this year. I work on the projections all winter and at some point I upgraded Moore to a 3.72 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. It just so happens this projection, also in 150 innings pitched, is worth about $12 and I’ve dropped his bid price to $13. Note that in CBS and LABR, Moore went for $13 and $11, so I was definitely in the ballpark on Moore’s bid price if not his projection in the Guide.

The Guide projections and price update is due tomorrow, probably in the evening, here on the corrections page. It will have hugely reworked projections and bid prices for those who bought the Guide. You may still find it on the shelves at Barnes and Noble and other magazine retailers, and you can also buy the online version at thefantasysportsguide.com. Use the promo code Rotoman17 and get $1 off.

As to the issue of team names, they are available in the stat lines for all the players with major league experience last year. And I do add team names to the end of the prospect capsules because readers very much want them, but it really is a problem to be more definitive. The magazine heads off to the printer just days after the Winter Meetings conclude, and at that point there are still hundreds of free agents out there. Plus, trades will be made. So, the choices are to either list the team name that the player ended last year with, which in hundreds of cases will be wrong, or their team name at press time, which means hundreds will be listed as a Free Agent.

It’s always seemed to me that the team name in the stats is just as reliable as either of the above methods, and doesn’t pretend to an authority that we don’t have in mid December. I’m open to suggestions, surely, so please feel free to send them along.

A reader named Jeffrey reports: I figure that if Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray are worth $2 apiece, then Tyler Chatwood should be worth a bid of $1. If I see anything else of note, I will send another email.

Read more…

It’s Out! The Fantasy Football Guide 2016!

Here it is, the 17th annual Fantasy Football Guide.

ffg16-at barnes and nobleIt’s in stores now. That picture is from a Barnes and Noble in Brooklyn NY, where it appeared for the first time yesterday.

We’re usually found in Barnes and Noble and Wal Mart (though not in Wal Mart Canada), and each year I find it for sale in different grocery and drug stores.

I found the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 in my local CVS last March, but when I went back a few days later they had moved the magazines to the back corner of the store. Yesterday, I went in and the magazine display was smaller and had no sports magazines at all. I know where not to go.

This year’s Guide has a great roster of writers:

Andy Goldstein edited the position pages, which he wrote along with JD Bolick, David Gonos, HC Green, Marc Meltzer, and Matt Wilson.

Herija C. Green edited the team pages, and wrote some of them, along with Matt Wilson, Rob Blackstien, Buck Davidson, Jack Delaney, Daniel Dobish, Keith Hernandez, Jason Hoffman, and Nick Minnix.

JD Bolick’s NFL Draft review runs 10 dense pages, with a ton of video references if you’re interested in see what he’s describing.

Doug Anderson and Dave Gawron prepared Strength of Schedule info for Daily and Full Season games respectively.

Bob Lung contributed a piece about why consistent play can help you put together a better team.

John LaPresto surveys the wounded and the walking, and lets us know how things are looking for the injured.

Marc Meltzer prepared our player projections.

And Lawr Michael and Geoff Stein put together the Mock Draft, which features both friends and new faces this year.

I hope you enjoy it. Let me know if you find any errors or what you think by writing to askrotoman at gmail.com. There’s a link to a corrections page at the top of this page.

And if you can’t find a physical copy, there will soon be online and pdf versions available at thefantasysportsguide.com. Use the coupon code ROTOMAN and save $1 off your online purchase.

Updated Projections for Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 Buyers, out now!

fbg2016-cover 600wSlip over to the Corrections and Updates page for the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Guide for an Excel spreadsheet  with updated projections and Big Prices.

The update is for FBG buyers only. The password is the lower case version of the last name of the only $14 player on page 66 of this year’s Guide.  You can look it up!

ASK ROTOMAN: Panik Attack

How did Joe Panik not get drafted in your mock draft in the Guide?

“Ordinary Joe”

Shocking, isn’t it? I have a few ideas, which may be of interest to those who follow mock and industry drafts.

  1. When you draft in November, there are no rankings. So the draft software (couchmanagers.com, thank you very much) throws up a list based off of who knows what. This doesn’t much matter early, when everyone is working off their own lists, but in the frenzy and late night (of all our souls) it is human nature to lean on the list in the endgame. Panik must have been ranked down the list after missing two months, and was overlooked.
  2. He’s just not ranked that highly. In last night’s Tout Wars Mixed Draft, he was taken in the 20th round. With the last pick in the 20th round. That’s number 300 overall. I think we may be undervaluing the power surge he showed before he was hurt last year, but that placement has been pretty consistent. If he hits 12-15 homers and .300+ someone (in this case Rudy Gamble) is going to be very happy.
  3. Not many 2B were taken in the endgame. Scarcity means those who are taken are taken earlier, and makes it easier for someone to slip through. In the last three rounds of the mock, after Panik’s place in Tout, the only second basemen taken were Micah Johnson and Jurrickson Profar.

Sincerely,
rotomansignature

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 in Brooklyn!

I spied the Guide in the wild today, at the Park Slope Barnes and Noble. Just us and the Sporting News amidst the gun mags.

2016-01-11 14.40.27
Guitar mags, too.

Protected: Stats Update: Password is the last word in Buck Davidson’s Allen Craig profile, page 46, in the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

David Gonos Likes The Fantasy Baseball Guide!

FBG2015-coverI just found this review of the Fantasy Baseball Guide on David Gonos’s website.

David is a friend and colleague, and also  a good guy. He’s also a straight shooter and a knowledgeable fantasy writer, which is why his praise here means so much to me.

He also does a good in-depth job of describing the Guide’s contents. The magazine has been out for almost six weeks now, which means it is selling out in some outlets (Barnes and Noble, Walmart, and other drug, book and grocery stores), but use David’s promo code (gonos15) and save a buck at thefantasysportsguide.com on the digital version.

2015 Errata Data and Corrections

homer-dohThis is the place to find corrections and amplifications about the Fantasy Baseball and Football Guides 2015.

For the mid-March Projection and Big Price Update, visit this page. The password is the last word in Buck Davidson’s Allen Craig profile on page 46 of the 2015 Guide.

THE FANTASY BASEBALL GUIDE 2015

Page 52: The Moyer Pan of Andre Ethier is meant to be a Moyer Pan of Andrelton Simmons on Page 86. The tipoff? Ethier is not valued for his glove, no way no how. Blame Rotoman for bad cutting and pasting.

Page 69: For some reason, J.D. Martinez and Victor Martinez appear alphabetically before Leonys and Russell Martin. This is wrong, but you’ll have to ask Excel how it happened, and Excel isn’t talking.

Page 71: Will Middlebrooks isn’t included in the Guide. I don’t have an explanation for that, except I made a mistake. I’m not high on Middlebrooks at all, I think there’s a fair chance he’s going to fail utterly if he can ever stay healthy enough to get consistent playing time, but he should have been in there.

Will Middlebrooks, $3: Last year’s power outage can be blamed on hand and finger injuries, which popped up throughout the season, but the contact issues that surfaced in 2013 only got worse last year. Now he heads to a park where his power, if it returns as part of his game, isn’t likely to play quite so grandly as it did in Boston. There’s enough uncertainty about his skill set to make him a possible endgame play in NL only leagues, maybe he’ll hit some homers if he proves he isn’t injury prone, that he’s just been unlucky. But the odds are strong he’s going to fail.

NEW! The Fantasy Football Guide Podcast

FFG14_PodcastLogoAndy Goldstein and Derek Jones launch their latest podcast, in this inaugural release they  tackle Quarterbacks and Running Backs.

Listen here:

http://www.askrotoman.com/wordpress/podcast/the-fantasy-football-guide-podcast-1/.

The podcast is available through iTunes, too.