Ask Rotoman – Page 16 – Answers to fantasy baseball questions (and much more) since 1996

Guest Post: The Baseball Prospectus Mixed Mock

March 6, 2015 by peter

I received the following in email earlier today. It is a computer generated analysis of the Mock I did for Baseball Prospectus earlier this week. I can’t contest the wisdom of the machine, which will someday replace the fantasy experts at CBSsports, at least. I apparently have a terrible team. But its writing is dismal.

I do hope they send out a story after the season, showing how these teams actually did, and how good or bad their analysis actually was.

Draft Recap

By CBSsports Interactive

Thanks to players like Jose Altuve, Brian Walton are the team to beat

The final victory is still up for grabs, but Brian Walton have taken a good first step, winding up with the top ranked draft. Coach Walton’s squad, led by Jose Altuve, are projected to wind up with 120 category points. That’s 55 more points than you are projected to come up with. You will have all year to prove us wrong, but for now, you are slated to finish in last place.

Bret Sayre are expected to be better than that overall, and much better on the outfielders front, where they have the best group in the league. Coach Sayre can trot out Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley, and George Springer into the starting lineup. Steve, meanwhile, are the worst in the league in that area, with Allen Craig, Melvin Upton, and Drew Stubbs gracing the starting lineup. Coach Moyer won’t be able to blame outside factors for that soft spot in the roster either, given that they had the 2nd easiest path through the draft.

Speaking of draft difficulty, you had it pretty rough, as you ended up with less value available to you than all but two other teams. You had to watch as good value picks like David Price, J.D. Martinez, and Dallas Keuchel were snatched right before it was your turn.

Turning to individual picks, we tapped Steve as having made the best pickup with Cliff Lee in the 169th slot. He was projected to be off the board a full 85 picks earlier. On the other hand, Fake Teams made the worst move of the draft. Coach Guilfoyle selected Starlin Castro with the 57th pick, which we pegged as a serious reach.

Your best pickup of the draft was Corey Kluber, who was expected to have been selected in the 25th slot, but who you got with pick #39. However, you mixed in some duds as well, the worst of whom was Daniel Murphy, taken 74 spots ahead of what his average draft position suggests.

Teams
Team	Projected Category Points
Brian Walton	120
Bret Sayre	95
Lawr Michaels	94
Lamentation of Their Women	84
Gardner	82
Team McLeod	79
Steve	77
Matthew Pouliot	75
Tim Heaney	75
Mike Gianella	74
Walter Kuberski	72
Ryan Bloomfield	71
Fake Teams	69
Asches to Asches, Cust to Cust	68
Rotoman’s Vertigos	65

*Players Drafted*
*Player*	*Pick Number*	*Average Draft Position*	*Pick Value Rank*
Jose Abreu	9	7	99
Ryan Braun	22	37	328
Corey Kluber	39	25	26
Hunter Pence	52	64	307
David Wright	69	114	340
Daniel Murphy	82	156	343
Marcell Ozuna	99	115	302
Salvador Perez	112	104	79
Leonys Martin	129	185	333
Huston Street	142	126	63
Michael Pineda	159	183	292
Drew Smyly	172	201	291
Erick Aybar	189	228	286
Danny Salazar	202	206	218
Matt Shoemaker	219	203	96
Martin Prado	232	240	212
Nick Castellanos	249	307	243
Jenrry Mejia	262	215	75
Taijuan Walker	279	293	188
R.A. Dickey	292	279	148
Angel Pagan	309	287	146
Jose Ramirez	322	289	137
Tyler Flowers	339	346	152

ASK ROTOMAN: Doing the Newest FAABest Steps!

March 5, 2015 by peter

Dear Rotoman:

As a league that’s been around for 30 years, we’ve played by the rules that Alex Patton established in his book, and have made sure we changed the ones he did in newer books. Since he hasn’t put out a book in several years, many in our league are wanting to know if some of our rules are outdated and need to be changed, dropped or modified.

We play NL, 5×5 (HR,R,SB,OBP,RBI and W,S,K,ERA,WHIP), $280 starting salary, $340 in season cap, 25 players with Farm Team. Three year contracts with extensions at $5 per year. We do $100 FAAB from after All-Star til last week of August. FAAB over $10 must be kept next year or dropped for $10 salary penalty.

Anyway, do you know if most teams still use these same basic rules or have any of them mostly changed. The one I want to modify is to make FAAB all year vs. six weeks. Currently, early in the season, lower ranked teams are “rewarded” by drafting guys that don’t play or will soon be sent down, to wait and see the two or three guys we all miss in the draft each year. The league winner last year screwed his draft and left with $60+ dollars, only to pick up Erving Santana, Hector Rondon and Aaron Harang the first three weeks of the season. Personally, I feel like every player needs to be FAAB eligible so that EVERY OWNER has a chance. Higher ranked teams cannot get these guys for DL selections because lower teams are holding their DL guys several weeks to see if someone good comes up.

Any input you can give us would be greatly appreciated as it relates to how most leagues deal with things these days.

“Old Ruled”

Dear OR:

What’s funny is that I’ve played with Alex Patton in the American Dream League, which was something of the model league in his books, for more than 20 years, and our rules are totally unlike yours. I’ll be brief: AL, 4×4 (BA), $260 budget, no salary cap, 24 man rosters with seven man reserve. One year contract with no escalator. $50 FAAB starting the third week, and then all season long.

Crazy no?

The fact of the matter is that your league is much more progressive, with your 5×5 and OBP, particularly, than the ADL is. Which doesn’t mean that rules can’t or shouldn’t be changed. There’s just no reason to try to conform to any one set of rules, because you can’t. There are people playing in so many styles I hesitate to list them, because I’m nodding off just thinking about them.

Which brings us to your crazy FAAB rule. Yes, I said crazy, because I think you guys have it all backward.

In the old days, before their was FAAB in Fantasyland, the waiver wire ruled supreme. Whoever got their claim in first, when a player “came over,” (as we still say though without the frenzied dialing), would acquire the player. But everyone soon realized that this gave such an advantage to the unemployed obsessive they wished they could be, that weekly waivers became more the norm.

The problem with weekly waivers is that priority goes to the bad teams, the teams lower in the standings, which means they acquire talent that all too often would get traded to one of the good teams, thus making all the other competing teams angry. Hence, FAAB.

FAAB is an equalizer. It gives each of us the chance to make the market on a particular player on a particular day. And if we blow our wad one day, the teams that still have FAAB left have the advantage. Which is why it is perfect tool for leagues to use all season long.

In fact, relegating it to a brief period means there is no warp and woof to the budgets. I would imagine players are traded over from the AL and everybody goes all in on them, and they’re awarded to the team lowest in the standings on the tie-breaker. That misses the point.

I mentioned that in the ADL we wait three weeks to start up our FAAB. This is a vestige of our time before FAAB. We held up waivers until there was some settling in the standings, a bubbling up of talent, a dropping down of not so much, so that good teams off to a bad start weren’t unjustly rewarded. Some argue that since we use FAAB now we could start waivers Week 1, and they’re right. But I resist that.

Having a week or two, or even three, before teams can beef up their rosters is a test for teams that take players in the auction who are injured. The idea is no more an impetus to force them to find a replacement than the Affordable Care Act was intended to compel the States to set up their own exchanges. Rather, the goal is to inflict on them a little pain if they don’t draft a replacement. Isn’t that fun?

As for some of the other crazy new rules the kids are coming up with, OR, don’t get me started. Have you heard of the Daily Games?

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Dump Power?

March 5, 2015 by peter

Rotoman:

5X5 , NL only, 10 team auction league. Have rule where we can keep toppers and at draft can keep them if we bid one more dollar where bidding stops. Am thinking about punting HRs and RBIs.

Have Grenke, Wainwright, Bumgarner, A.Wood, Wacha, all as toppers. Have deGrom at $10, Melencon at $5, Cishek at $17, and hitters Span, Revere, Carpenter, D. Murphy, J. Upton, Polonco, E. Young all as toppers. Suggestions on punting HRs and RBIs and are toppers worth keeping?

“Topper”

Dear Top:

I have one point. Toppers are fun, but they are almost never bargains.

The process of topping in your league turns a 10-team auction into a nine-team auction. That should make little difference, if any, on the prices paid for players in your auction.

This is important because it means you should not plan your auction strategy around your Topper list. Feel to hold onto as many Toppers as you’re allowed. Sometimes the bidding will stop early and you’ll save a buck or two, but more often, at least in the leagues I play in, someone else will bid the extra dollar, knowing that it makes the Topping decision that much harder.

It is your keepers that should determine your how you approach your auction.

deGrom at $10 is a decent keep. Melancon at $5 is a very good one. Cishek at $17 is keepable, but he’s no bargain. Your strength going into auction is that you won’t need to buy any saves.

Your weakness is that you’re going to have to buy everything else. Which brings us to your second question: Should you dump power? Or, as we say, should you Sweeney?

The decision to dump one category, much less two, is predicated on the competitiveness of your league. In a league where all the teams are relatively equal, the expected total points of the winning team will be relatively modest. In that case, dumping may be a way gain an advantage. Win the eight categories other than HR and RBI, you end up with 82 points, which can win a competitive league.

Is that the situation in your league? There’s no way I can know that.

What I can say for sure is that the best time to Sweeney is when you have great closer keepers, and an otherwise weak hand. That’s you, though I would say your closer keepers are just okay, since Cishek is at market value. Still, that’s a fair place to start.

The Sweeney Plan was invented in a 4×4 league. It is very hard to dump HR and RBI and win the Runs category. Here’s why:

Carpenter, Span, Reyes and Yelich didn’t hit that many homers, but they didn’t score that many runs either, compared to the leaders. Nine of the top 11 positions in this list of major league runs leaders went to guys who get paid to hit homers.

Fantasy experts generally say, Never dump a category in the auction! Never!

I’m a little less doctrinaire than that. There are times it makes sense to face reality before you auction. But I’m not sure it ever makes sense to Sweeney in the auction in 5×5, at least if you are trying to win. There’s just too thin a margin for error for the Sweeney to make sense.

Since your team is wide open, since your keeper list is weak, it makes sense for you to look for a competitive edge. I would suggest deemphasizing batting average. Not dumping, exactly, but disregarding BA as a category when you’re evaluating players.

Try to accumulate as many at bats as you can, getting regulars at every hitting slot. In your league, look for top of the lineup types who aren’t stars, obviously.

You’ll still have a tough road ahead. I’m sure you have competitors with much better freeze lists going in. But if you are able to buy enough at bats and a couple of those guys have career years, especially with the batting average, well, ya never know.

Sincerely,

Patton $ Software Is Out Now!

April 15, 2015February 28, 2015 by peter

As reliable as spring and the cry, “I’m in the best shape of my career,” comes the 2015 edition of Patton $ Software.

The software contains my 2015 baseball projections, my suggested bid prices (and Mike Fenger’s) for 5×5 and Alex Patton’s 4×4 bid prices, prospect lists and expert league draft results, as well as ways for you to enter your own bids, make up-to-the-minute draft lists for your fantasy drafts, edit and automatically adjust the projections and show what players earn with different statlines. In short, everything you might need to prepare to win your fantasy league this year.

There is a new procedure for buying this year. Go to pattonandco.com and register, if you’re not already registered. Click the menu item that says Subscribe and follow the instructions (essentially, click the blue button, enter your payment information, and authorize payment for $36).

LINK: New Improved Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator

February 26, 2015 by peter

Last year we linked to the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator, which makes up fantasy baseball team names from MLB and player team names, and random memes in the zeitgeist, or something like that.

There is a new and updated version of the Generator up now, in case you’re in need of a name.

The Spring Training Football Yes FOOTBALL Podcast Is Posted!

February 25, 2015 by peter

It kind of ticks me off when I’m searching for fantasy baseball news during spring training and I come across people talking about football. I mean, everything in its place!

But Andy and Derek, who handle the fantasy football podcast here DURING football season, got excited and started talking.

Please forgive. Please listen, if you care to, and then get back to baseball!

David Gonos Likes The Fantasy Baseball Guide!

February 22, 2015February 22, 2015 by peter

I just found this review of the Fantasy Baseball Guide on David Gonos’s website.

David is a friend and colleague, and also a good guy. He’s also a straight shooter and a knowledgeable fantasy writer, which is why his praise here means so much to me.

He also does a good in-depth job of describing the Guide’s contents. The magazine has been out for almost six weeks now, which means it is selling out in some outlets (Barnes and Noble, Walmart, and other drug, book and grocery stores), but use David’s promo code (gonos15) and save a buck at thefantasysportsguide.com on the digital version.

ASK ROTOMAN: Andrew is Easy.

February 20, 2015February 20, 2015 by peter

Rotoman!

I get 2 keepers – Andrew McCutchen is my first, and I need to choose from the following for my second: Brian McCann, Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Freddie Freeman, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, or Masahiro Tanaka.

“Seconds of Pleasure”

Dear Seconds:

First thing I do is compare my prices for a list of guys with BaseballHQ’s prices. For primarily veteran players, this makes it easy to see if there is a consensus:

Player PK HQ
McCann 13 13
Gordon 23 30
Kinsler 24 24
Ramirez 22 25
Freeman 26 27
Cruz 22 22
Machado 21 17
Cole 13 16
Tanaka 18 17

What we learned here, I think, is that Brian McCann, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado and Gerrit Cole are not keepers for you.

I don’t think Tanaka is a keeper either, since he’s coming back from an injury that often requires surgery, without having surgery. Lots of upside if he makes it work, but too much risk to use for a keeper. (If you disagree, stop here and freeze Tanaka, it’s a risky but reasonable choice.)

Which leaves us, in order of average value: Freddie Freeman, Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez. But from top to bottom it’s close, so you have some decisions to make, because there are some things I don’t know about your league.

For instance, how deep is it? It is a mixed league, clearly. If it’s a 10 or 12 or 15 team mixed league, position scarcity matters, which elevates Dee Gordon over Freddie Freeman. If it’s 20 or 25 teams, Freeman is close, if not Gordon’s better.

If it’s an OBP league, however, Freeman is enough better that you would take him over Gordon, even in a 15-team league. Maybe. Read on.

But let’s assume you play the aging and inferior but more popular BA format. Gordon is more valuable than Freeman, and clearly more valuable than the guys HQ and I have ranked below him, which makes young Dee the obvious keep, EXCEPT…

Except Gordon contributes in one category. In your league is it more helpful to have a 2B who steals 50 bases but doesn’t do much else? Or is it better to have a guy like Hanley or Ian, who will hit double digit homers and steal double digit bases, with a better BA?

If you follow HQ’s guidance (and $30 bid) this is a no brainer, but depending on how your league values steals (and marginal hitting ability, which is what Gordon has), he may be hugely valuable, but he’s surely also risky. Guys who don’t hit lose at bats.

Not that the other guys aren’t risky. Ramirez moves to the American League for the first time, is changing positions and brings with him an injury history that has to be considered, at least, while Kinsler has seen his power and speed decline in recent years, as he has moved into his middle 30s.

Looked at through this frame, you really can’t make a bad choice here, but not one of them is a slam dunk winner. Freeman might be the safest bet, but he plays first base for a team that has stripped away every other offensive weapon. Gordon is the most explosive, if he plays he will run, but if he’s hitting .222 will he still play? Ramirez has the biggest upside. If he stays healthy he could be a 20/20 guy, but he’s not likely to stay healthy, which probably makes Kinsler the safer bet.

So, I’ve talked myself into Kinsler, for all the reasons listed above, hoping he’ll have a year not unlike last year’s, even if not quite so much.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: How is a stat service like a nice Chianti and fava beans

February 19, 2015 by peter

All Hail Rotoman!

Is there a ‘3rd party’ available for a weekly FAAB process?

Currently, our FAAB rules require us to turn our weekly roster changes and FAABs into the commissioner on Sunday Nights by 9pm. The league-friendly commissioner, has made that 9pm kind of a ‘soft deadline’ and has on occasion accepted FAABs and roster changes past that 9pm deadline with a friendly reminder to get it in on time. In addition, new job responsibilities have delayed the FAAB results and roster changes until Tuesday, sometimes Wednesday mornings.

My thought here is… IF there is a 3rd party process available, any and all deadline and integrity concerns can be completely eliminated.

There is NOT an integrity issue with the commish. Just looking at alternative methods for assuring that the FAAB process is timely and legit.

Sincerely,
Hannibal Lester

Dear Hannibal,

Almost all stat services have automated FAAB processes. These require that teams enter their claims and picks and moves into the box, via a form of some sort, and at the appointed hour, as the bells strike, the software does it’s utterly rational magic and awards are made.

In the past I’ve used the systems at Yahoo, ESPN and CBSsports and found they all worked well enough. It has been a while, however, so chances are decent they have improved, though I don’t know for sure.

I can enthusiastically endorse the BidMeister at onRoto.com, which is quite flexible and fault tolerant, though it does force you to submit your bids structured as replacement blocks. That is, all your claims to replace your first basemen go in at once, then your claims for a starting pitcher, then the outfielder.

I was at first wary of this, but once you take this into account you can gain most of the control you want by ordering the blocks and using your FAAB.

And this is how a stat service is like a liver, which goes so well with the favas and a nice Chianti. It filters out the labor and toxins of a fantasy league, increases communication and information, making the thing work better, and does so quietly, at least in the best of times.

Sincerely,

ASK ROTOMAN: Puzzled About Prices!

February 18, 2015 by peter

Dear Rotoman:

As a long time reader of the Guide I find this year’s dollar valuations puzzling. Case in point: Arrieta at $19 and Kennedy at $2. Will the update on March 15 contain new dollar amounts for pitchers or just playing time adjustments which pertain primarily to position players?

“Puzzled About Prices”

Dear PAP:

As a long time reader of the Guide, I’m surprised you haven’t long been puzzled about those prices. But let me explain a bit about the process, and Arrieta and Kennedy especially, after I answer your direct question:

The mid-March free update to the projections and prices in the Guide will reflect my latest thinking about all the players in the Guide, plus those added and subtracted from the pool due to injury or other circumstances. The link will show up here, at blog.askrotoman.com, and will be password protected, so it is only available to those who have purchased the Guide.

Commercial Break: The Fantasy Baseball Guide is available at many book, drug, grocery and WalMart stores, but it has been out now for a month and is sold out in some venues. You can buy the online version at thefantasysportsguide.com. Use the promo code Rotoman2015 and save $1!

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program.

To create the Big Prices in the Guide, which are my suggested bid prices for players, I try to combine two bits of information.

The first is what I expect a player to earn this year. I look at what he’s earned in the past (in Arrieta’s case, $23 last year, in Kennedy’s, $6, -$15, $4 the last three years) and make an estimate.

The second part is to read what the market will be for the player come March, and whether I want to be ahead of it or behind it.

In Arrieta’s case, he had a break out second half last year following an adjustment to his delivery. He has great stuff, and I feel pretty confident that he’ll be able to repeat as a $23 earner. Or somewhere close. I’m sure other people will be more skeptical, so I knocked his price down to a $19 bid price, because I want to own him.

In Kennedy’s case, he can be an effective pitcher at times, but he’s not developed as the dominant arm he showed back with the Yankees when he came up, mostly because he allows a lot of baserunners. I think a repeat of last year’s numbers is the likely outcome for him, in a range, and only want Kennedy if I get him at the very end of the auction. In the Guide Mike Fenger says drop out before he reaches $10, but I think that’s counting too much on improvement. I would prefer to hedge against failure. Hence, the $2 bid price.

Now, I’ve heard from plenty of people who think Arrieta’s unlikely to earn $19 next year, because he allowed so few homers on fly balls, and because they’ve gotten used to him not being very good. I think they’re wrong about Arrieta’s probable success, but what I’m hearing is that the market for Arrieta may be even weaker than I expected. In which case I may drop his price some more going forward. My goal is to estimate what it’s going to take to buy him, and if I want him enough, add enough to get him in most auctions. Unless I bump into someone thinking like me.

As for Kennedy, his team has improved offensively in the offseason, something not included in that $2 bid price. As I work to balance the books, as we get closer to the season, he’s a guy who might bounce up a dollar or two. He’s not a bad buy at $4, but I think he is at $9, though it wouldn’t surprise me if he earned that. It is certainly possible.

You can see updated bid prices at pattonandco.com, by the way, and that’s a good place (once you’re registered) to ask why I’m thinking this way or that.

The final point about the prices is that they are a work in progress. I use them in my auctions, so they seriously reflect my thinking, but I seriously expect you, the reader, to make your own evaluations and shape your auction by second guessing me. You may think I’m crazy about Arrieta, and you might drop his bid price to $12, but you do so knowing that there is at least one person like me out there who would pay $17 for him. If you let me have him at $13, you’re giving me $4 more dollars than I expected to have elsewhere.

Thanks!

Sincerely,