Ask Rotoman

Hey Rotoman,

I need keeper help. I’m in a 12-team, 5×5 roto league with 29 rostered players. We’re allowed to keep up to 3 players but must surrender a draft pick 4 rounds earlier than where we drafted the player. We can keep the same player the next year by surrendering a draft pick another 4 rounds earlier and so on. There’s no limit on the years we can keep a player other than the declining surrendered draft pick.

My candidates are:

Y. Puig (drafted 19th round, surrender 15th round pick)

D. Salazar (drafted 28th round, surrender 24th round pick)

Y. Darvish (drafted 29th round, surrender 25th round pick)

J. Verlander (drafted 22nd round, surrender 18th round pick)

B. Hamilton (drafted 16th round, surrender 12th round pick).

Who do you like?

Thanks,
Sweet Surrender

Dear Sweet:

Your letter is of interest mostly because I’ve never heard of this keeper system before, and it is delightful.

Which means it is pretty close to unique (though as I type those words I’m sure to learn of others who do this).

As you might imagine, coming up with valuation systems for no dough is outside my pay grade, but let’s run a little pricing logic.

Billy Hamilton is your least attractive player, and he has the highest price. Set him freakin’ free.

The rest of your guys are good keeps no matter what. So, keep Puig, because he’s a hitter, and Salazar, because he’s cheaper than Darvish, and more attractive, which makes your choice either Verlander and Darvish. Both are fine keeps. Which is better?

It would be easy if they were priced equally. Verlander is a former ace who seems to be adjusting to aging and having less velocity. Darvish is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Many pitchers, though not all, do. Will he come back quickly or slowly or not at all is the big question.

Alas, Verlander is more expensive than Darvish. But in the 18th round, Verlander’s price is low enough that his apparent moxie increase in the second half last year, living with less (velocity), is a big plus over Darvish’s rehab.

For me, Puig, Salazar and Verlander are the way to go.

Sincerely,

Hello Rotoman,

I am in a 14-team mixed keeper auction league with 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers) and a budget of $260. Who should I keep as my last keeper? Jason Heyward for $20 or Michael Wacha for $10?

“Wacha Wacha Hey!”

I used that technique I described last week, converting draft position to dollar values, to assess what Heyward is going for these days versus Wacha. And I also converted their stats into dollar values and found something interesting.

Both methods said Heyward is worth $19, while Wacha is worth $14. The easy answer is keep Wacha.

But I’m not so sure. The key thing to remember is that shallow league prices are not linear. What this means is that a guy who collects twice as many stats is worth more than the guy who collects half as many.

The curve, that’s the non-linear part, from last year’s Tout Wars Mixed Auction, a 15 team mixed league, looks like this:

The left side represents the most expensive players, the right side the cheapest. Between them is not a straight line.

However, the part of the line that runs from Wacha, at $14, and Heyward, at $19, is pretty straight, meaning that the stats for each escalating pick are pretty much equivalent.

If that’s the case, it might make sense to keep Wacha instead of Heyward.

On the other hand, see how the curve arcs upward at the $20 mark? Heyward is right on the cusp of being valued non-linearly. He’s on a new team that is offensively rich and going to win the World Series for the first time since 1908, and he’s going to turn 27 this season.

Without knowing who your other keeps are it’s hard to make a contextual argument, so if you need pitchers it’s fine to keep Wacha, but any improvement by Heyward this year in his new hitters park will be valued as a multiple. I think I would roll the dice with the Cub and make history. Or be cursed.

Wachily,

Ps: The writer later contacted me to say what his categories were.

BA, HR, STEALS, RBI, RUNS, OBP and TB on offense and WINS, ERA, WHIP, SO,  HOLDS, SAVES and K/9 on pitching. 

Run those through the grinder and you get $20 for Heyward, $9 for Wacha. Another vote for going for the hitter.

And a reminder that categories matter.

Need a third Keeper in a 2 Catcher, 6×6, 13 Team League:

We can keep three at no cost. Keeping Kershaw and Bryant.

Need to choose No. 3 from Kyle Schwarber, JD Martinez, and Joey Votto.

“Rich”

Forget Schwarber. He’s too young, too inexperienced, to keep over the other two. He could hit 70 homers this year, that’s a possibility, but he could also hit nine, with a .188 BA. He also doesn’t have a position, and while it will be fun to play him at Catcher this year, his defensive issues in the outfield could cost him at bats. He’s a fine guy to freeze at a good price, but he’s risky and doesn’t belong with the other two.

Here’s what you need to know about the other two: If one of your six categories is OBP, keep Votto. If one of your six categories is BA, keep Martinez.

If your six categories are weird, leave a comment with details on what they actually are.

Sincerely,

12 team league. Keepers are kept in round drafted for a max of 3 years. My set Keepers are Rizzo (1st), J. Fernandez (8), and Correa (22). I need to pick 2 of these last 3.

Rendon (21st Round, 1 year left)

McCullers (23rd Round, 2 years left)

C. Martinez (23rd Round, 2 years left)

Who do you like?

“Hobson”

Dear H:

Of these six players you have five excellent freezes. That is, guys who are cheap! The one exception is Anthony Rizzo, who is a first round keeper at a first round price.

Now, that isn’t to say he isn’t a good keeper, but because of this and the fineness of your other five picks, he’s the one I would first look at closely.

Who would you be able to get with your first pick if you didn’t keep Rizzo? If everyone else is keeping their first round picks, you might be able to make your first pick Rizzo, which would be like having six keepers!

There’s no way for me to know how this games out, but while Rizzo is your best player he is the one with the least amount of extra value.

(Note: In auction leagues you would also have to consider how much higher your opponents would bid up Rizzo because of inflation, but that is not a factor in draft leagues. Your only question is who will be available to you for your first round pick if you throw Rizzo back.)

If, for some reason, you judge it is best to hold onto Rizzo,  as well as Correa and Fernandez, then your choice is indeed between the three you list above. They clearly rank Rendon, Martinez, McCulllers (partly because of inexperience and partly because he’s likely to pitch fewer innings this year), which makes the question, would you rather have two years of McCullers or one year of Rendon and your best late-round find this year?

I’m sure there’s a way to tease the math, to look at two year projections for McCullers, to scale up Rendon’s injury risk, and prove that two years of McCullers is the better deal. But the bottom line in shallow league valuations is that with such high replacement-value players available, it’s okay to take on the injury risk and go for the higher impact player. Rendon comes with some risk, but he’s a high-octane hitter in the middle infield, a much more valuable piece this year who will allow you (force you) to find another similar gem next year.

As much as I love McCullers’ arm, he’s the one to cut loose if you’re sure that Rizzo is a good keep in your league.

Sincerely,

Rotoman!

Defending champ in a 12 team, auction-draft league with four Keepers. Offensive categories incl. OBP & SLG to go with the standards. Pitching incl. K/9, QS, WHIP, ERA, IP, SV. Appreciate any advice on which of the following two players to keep along with Arenado ($1) and Correa ($1):

Stroman ($1)

Cueto ($7)

Archer ($15)

McCutchen ($29)

“Hello to Arms”

Hello!

You’ve got two strong hitters at skill positions in Arenado and Correa, for less than peanuts, and Marcus Stroman for one samolean is irresistible. That leaves one.

McCutchen is still a bargain at $29, but not a big bargain, so unless you know something about inflation or your leaguemates (like, will they bid him to $60 because of scarcity?), I think you can let him go.

BTW You call this an auction-draft league. Does that mean you really auction? Or do you draft players with auction prices? This sort of thing makes a difference. But I can’t address that specifically, so let’s look at Chris Archer at $15 versus Johnny Cueto at $7.

Archer will be 28 this year, has made 93 career starts and is considered an up and comer. He actually arrived last year, pitching the whole season and for the most part dominating, thanks in large part to throwing his excellent slider more. There are many pitchers who find improvement and success using their slider, and a fair body of evidence that this increases their risk of injury. Still, it wouldn’t be crazy to see another year from Archer like his 2015. 3.30 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, about a strikeout an inning is just fine. Frankly, it wouldn’t be crazy for him to have an even better season, but it wouldn’t be reasonable to expect it.

Cueto  just turned 30, yesterday (though today as I first typed it), and has made 223 starts. He’s been reliable and healthy, generally, though he struggled some after being traded to the Royals last year, where he won a World Series ring, despite not helping as much as they hoped he would. But he did pitch well, generally, in the playoffs, and he crushed the NL team he faced, so while there is evidence that he might be in decline a little, there isn’t much evidence he’s going to freefall.

The interesting thing about Cueto is that he’s been underestimated his whole career. All the component stats don’t like him as well as his results, year after year after year. It appears that’s because, while he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys he does get an above average amount of infield popups, which raises his automatic out rate to pretty respectable levels. Now he’s in San Francisco, a good pitchers park, after spending his successful pre-KC career in Cincinnati, a homer friendly home.

I hope you see where this is going. I’m choosing durable hurler with long history of success in a hitters park (moving to a pitchers park) over the less experienced major league arm with an elevated injury risk because he throws a freaking awesome slider a bit too much of all of the time. And the gravy? The older more established dude is cheaper.

Arenado $1, Correa $1, Stroman $1, Cueto $7.

Sweet.

Ps. Notice how I didn’t ask how you could possibly have Arenado at $1. Rules are rules, I have no quarrel there, but that’s a crazy rule that gives you that.

Pps. Doesn’t it seem that the names of all the possible and obvious keeps you name in your letter sound like plausible Medieval instruments of torture or war? I know I would hate to be struck down by an arenado, or poleaxed by a correa. Please, no! Not the stroman!

Ouch.

Ask Rotoman: 12 team Keeper League. 5 keepers per team. Non snake draft. I won last year so am drafting 12th. Trying to decide if I should keep Marte in the 3rd round (36 overall) or Bogaerts in the 12th (144). Other 4 keepers are all SP (Kershaw (1), Archer (11), C.Martinez (19), Arrieta (22)). Thanks!

Non snake! That should put a little dent in dynasties, though getting to keep Arrieta in the 22nd is a dynasty maker.

As for your hitter choice, it’s a tough one. Marte is one of the top power/speed guys in the game, certainly one of the Top 20 fantasy players, so getting him with No. 36 is a nice discount.

On the other hand, I love Bogaerts. He’s young, has some power and speed, showed lots of improvement making contact last year, and plays shortstop, a position that is extremely weak this year. He’s ranked around 60th overall this year, which means you’re getting him 84 picks early.

So, what’s more valuable? 16 picks in the early going or 84 picks in the middle? We have a way to check.

Take a look at last year’s Tout Wars Auction results. While any individual player could be off, if you rank the auction results from most expensive pick to least expensive, you can compare comparable draft ranks and see what their financial value is.

For instance, the 20th pick last year was worth $29, so that’s probably what Starling Marte is worth this year. The 36th pick, on the other hand, was worth $25, so the net result is you can judge Marte as a +$4 bargain.

The 60th pick last year, our proxy for Bogaerts, was worth $20. What was the 144th worth? $12, so Bogaerts is +$8. Twice as good! And you have a shortstop!

Now, you still should do some analysis of who other teams are going to be keeping. It’s possible in your league all the other keeps will be top hitters, so there won’t be a top hitter available to you at 24, your first pick. Marte is the safer pick then because he would be less replaceable, so while he may not have as much of a discount, he could be more valuable to your team than the other options that will be available to you early on.

Because you need hitting.

Sincerely,