Roto

League Standings

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AMERICAN DREAM LEAGUE

I’m pretty sure the link will dead end, but the point is that last night 7 ADL teams were within 1.5 points of first place (I was 7th). 20 minutes ago I checked in and I was in 1st place. Five minues later I was in fourth (.5 behind a three-way tie).

I hope your league is as competitive, but the real lesson is that this early in the season little changes make big differences. I can’t help but feel exhilerated when my Bad Ks are in first, or depleted when they sink to third, but at this point in the season the changes are pretty meaningless.

This is the time to prey on those who mistake a slow start for disaster.

Last Patton $ on Disk 2007 Update is Live

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Ask Rotoman News

For those who have been tracking the P$oD07 updates all spring, the final one was posted last night. It includes the Patton software, merge files for those looking for updated bid prices from Alex Patton, Rotoman, and Mike Fenger, my latest (and last) projections for the year, and text lists and an Excel file for those who simply want the stuff.

Thanks to all of this year ‘s and future customers. May you kick butt all season long.

Tout Wars – Battle of the Experts

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The draft list

One of the great disappointments of Tout Wars is that we’ve never figured out how to make the live experience work for those with the good sense not to visit a hotel somewhere in the New York area on a day they could be seeing the Allman Brothers in their annual visit to the Beacon Theater.

But the first few rounds of this year’s AL draft as recorded here tell a story that Matt Berry better back up with results. He bought Santana, he bought Halladay, both for relative cheap (because the so-called experts are wimpy when it comes to pitching), but then he interestingly continued to buy star powered players.

He turned a lesson in how experts don’t value pitching enough into a lesson in how you should buy chalk players, and let everyone else scramble. It may have worked out, but we’ll need the resurrection of the Tout Wars software to let us know who Matt is actually jamming with.

What we know now for sure is that (barring catostrophic injury) he won the league by grabbing Santana and Carpenter at those prices. Unless he paid too much for his other guys.

(Tout Wars NL will be taking place Sunday morning, March 25, at 9am, at the Marriott whatever at 6th Ave and 42nd Street. See you there.)

Mike Gianella’s Blog

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Roto Think Tank

Mike G. has been an energetic figure at the various Alex Patton sites over the years, and he drafted the Alex Patton LABR team in 2003. It turns out that Mike is a fine writer about the arcane roto issues that some of us obsess over endlessly, and his new website is a great place to explore the intricacies of what Alex calls the game’s Masochism.

I have to admit that some of you will not suck this discussion like sweet nectar, but I think that’s your loss. The fantasy game is played at the edges, where players eager to exploit inadequacies of the scoring system meet real scouts who believe they know something about the way players develop.

Good luck!

Patton $ on Disk 2007 is now available

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www.askrotoman.com

For those who swear by it, the release of POD07 is a big day. We’ve been squashing some bugs the past week, as it were, and everything seems to be working okay now. So, if you want the software that has my projections, Alex Patton’s and my 4×4 bid prices (actually mine aren’t in yet, but they will be by the March 1 update at the latest) and Mike Fenger’s 5×5 bids, lightning fast operation and a myriad of ways to incorporate your own ideas into the mix with ours, now is the time.

There will be updates on March 1, 15, 22, 29 and April 5. Getting all the projections and bids balanced to league budgets and up to date is a constant project for us, and the data develops as spring training progresses.

I encourage you to visit the discussion board over at alexpatton.com, to ask users about the software and your expected uses of it.

Manny now more scary than scary good

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SportingNews.com – Brendan Roberts

When Brendan says that the TSN rankings have Manny Ramirez at No. 25 I thought, that’s silly. But I looked in the just-arrived Fantasy Baseball Guide and discovered that in our mock draft Manny was taken No. 30. And looking at the names that went ahead of him that doesn’t seem too far off the mark. Manny is an injury risk, he is getting older, he’s probably going to end up in Boston again (though he clearly doesn’t want to be), and he’s coming off a mildly down season. But assuming he makes it through spring training without any obvious physical problems, and that he could end up going anywhere from 12th to 35th, he’s a great pick at the low end of that range. And he might even prove to be a good one at the top end. Does that make him a sleeper?

Straight Draft Post Mortem

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Baseball HQ

The link is going to take you to a page that requires a subscription of some sort to baseballHQ.com. I’m going to tell you what Ray Murphy’s straight draft research tells me that’s of interest to all of us: Fantasy teams that finished higher, on average, than other teams in the National Fantasy Baseball Championships had younger players than teams that finished lower. They also had players who had lower reliability scores (Shandler’s system) than other teams.

I’m fairly confident that the whole idea of reliability scores is a crock. Well, not in intent, but as a measurement. Manny Ramirez earns $31-$33 every year, until we decide that’s a reliable benchmark, and then he doesn’t. The problem with all ballplayers is that by the time they can be judged reliable, they’re old enough to become unreliable.

Ray’s conclusion is right, however. You need to stock up on the reliable players, and then take chances when the choice is between a reliable mediocrity and anybody else whose pulse might beat proudly.

I know, you knew that, but seeing the excellent numbers the NFBC throws off really helps. Which is a good reason to become a baseballHQ.com subscriber. For smart fantasy baseball analysis (and lots of it) there’s no better site.