Prospects

PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

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This was in the Baseball Prospectus newsletter, which comes via email every day.

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2008 AL Stolen Base Leaders, by PECOTA Projected SB

Player, Team, SB

Freddy Guzman, TEX, 37
Carl Crawford, TBA, 35
Brian Roberts, BAL, 35
Chone Figgins, LAA, 33
Bradley Coon, LAA, 33

What you’ve got to like about PECOTA is that it finds stuff. Bradley Coon was a 25 year old in Double-A last year who stole 24 bases in 36 attempts. The Angels’ outfield is already crowded, as is their infield. This slap-hitting oldie with moderate speed seems an unlikely guy to see any major league playing time.

Freddy Guzman is no longer with the Rangers. He was copped in the Rule 5 draft last December and is hoping to snag the job as Curtis Granderson’s backup this summer in Detroit. He’s a real burner whose only problems are that he’s had a hard time making it to the majors, and hasn’t hit in his two brief trials. He’s got a decent eye but no power, so his game rests on his ability to steal first and then second.

The odds of either Guzman or Coons ending up in the Top 5 in the AL at this point are laughable, which is why I like BP’s picks. If they alert you to a player with potential who is for some reason off the radar, they’ve done their job.

Point/Counterpoint: Johan Santana

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Mets Geek

My friend Steve Hubbell and his host, John Patterson, debated on January 18th whether a Santana trade would be good for the Mets, or a disasterous miscalculation. The die is now cast, apparently, and the Mets made a slightly better deal than Patterson anticipated (Gomez not Martinez). I suspect this debate will have entertainment value for years to come. Nice job, guys.

Walt Jocketty and the Search for Golden Arms

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Squawking Baseball

This somewhat rambling analysis of how to stock your pitching staff (if you’re a major league GM) strikes me as very smart. Don’t pay a lot because you need a lot. Pay a little because if you take enough small chances you can find a lot in the pool.

I think we need some real studies of what happens (namely, where the good pitchers on good teams came from) to buy into this fully, but given Rany’s survey of drafts it makes total sense to me that the best investment is in hitters.

And certainly major league teams are going this way now.

Feats of Clay

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The Boston Globe

An exhaustive profile of Clay Bucholz, the Red Sox phenom who has just been staked to a five run lead in this afternoon’s makeup game. His fantasy utility, even if he makes it stand up, is limited now, since he’ll be sent back to Pawuckett after the game, but expectations are sky high for the not so long run.

Also today, Detroit phenom Cameron Maybin was promoted and stalwart struggler Craig Monroe was designated for assignment. Monroe is one of those guys who seemed to bloom at a late age, and who is now fading early. Maybin is up for good if he can get on base, as a 19 year old, which is a big deal indeed. Or will be, if it works out. He’s played just four games at Double-A (homering three times).

Last Patton $ on Disk 2007 Update is Live

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Ask Rotoman News

For those who have been tracking the P$oD07 updates all spring, the final one was posted last night. It includes the Patton software, merge files for those looking for updated bid prices from Alex Patton, Rotoman, and Mike Fenger, my latest (and last) projections for the year, and text lists and an Excel file for those who simply want the stuff.

Thanks to all of this year ‘s and future customers. May you kick butt all season long.

Patton $ on Disk 2007 March 29 Update is Live

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The Prices are updated

If you’re looking for a cheat sheet with Alex Patton’s and my updated 4×4 prices, as well Mike Fenger’s 5×5 prices, along with my projections, updated through Thursday, at a price, click this link. You also get Alex’s excellent roto evaluation software, though you probably won’t want to tackle learning the software if your auction is this weekend.

Padres Deal Barfield!

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Padres trade 2B Barfield to Indians for two prospects – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

At Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Arizona Forum over the weekend, Blue Jays scout Kimball Crossley and Baseball HQ prospect analyst Deric McCammy looked at videos of Arizona Fall League players and analyzed their mechanics and predicted their futures.

Crossley said he never looked at video and was a little put off watching from the side angle (first base) rather than behind the plate, but that didn’t keep him and McCammey from gushing over Kevin Kouzmanoff. Both analysts like his swing, like his power, like his body and like his makeup, which is enough for me to say that maybe the Padres didn’t get taken in this trade.

Neither analyst thought Kouzmanoff would be a star, and while Barfield probably isn’t going to be one of the elite either, he’s a top notch defender at a middle position who has proven he can handle big league pitching.

No knock on Kouzmanoff, really. Seeing him play in person, well actually seeing him hit in person, makes you believe that he will hit. But he’s a slow runner who will be average at best in the field. And he’s older than Barfield.

The Padres got a pitcher, too. Andrew Brown is out of options. This is the third time he’s been dealt for a big league hitter. The first two were Gary Sheffield and Milton Bradley. He may well end up having a big league career but at this point that’s all.

Introducing Heater Magazine

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Heater Magazine – Home

John Hunt, who should need no introduction, Deric McKamey, the minor league expert at BaseballHQ.com, and Dave Studeman, of HardballTimes.com, have joined Graphical Pitcher author John Burnson to create Heater, an online magazine about baseball. While in the first issue Hunt and Studeman write fine “early season roto” columns, the heart of the Heater are the 30 pages of team statistical profiles and charts, and the umpteen more pages of position breakouts (as well as a page tracking minor leaguers).

Heater will be coming out each week, and for the fantasy player or the hard core baseball fan the wealth of charts, graphs, timelines and other details about this week, last week and next week, as well as a whole lot more stuff (I’m really just scratching the surface) is organized in an exacting and pleasing way. It’s like the back stats pages of Sports Weekly were totally rethought and reorganized to actually present the data in a way that made it easy to find trends and nuggets about players and teams. Radical.
In a word, all of it is useful, all of it is easy to understand, none of it is presented anywhere else in so fine and complete a manner. Don’t take my word for it. There is a sample copy at the link above. You’ll then have to decide if your money is well spent for this sort of thing. I’m hoping it is, because as long as they keep putting this stuff out my job is going to be a lot easier (and I’m going to look a lot smarter).