On newstands everywhere!
Prospects
An Interview with Oakland GM Billy Beane
John Sickels of Minor League Ball
I was working on Brett Wallace yesterday for the Guide (on sale in January!), and came to the conclusion that Wallace can hit and the A’s can use a third baseman, though he may not be that good a defensive player. Billy Beane agrees!
Nice interview by John, and Billy gives thoughtful answers. He just doesn’t trash anyone. Oh well.
Save $25 on First Pitch Arizona!
For what I think is the seventh time I’m heading out this November for Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Arizona symposium. This year’s dates are November 6-8, though I’m flying the fourth so I can get in a game on Thursday afternoon.
You cannot imagine how great it is to watch some of the best young talent around (this year we have Stephen Strasburg) in a near empty park, allowing you to sit just about anywhere you want (including behind home plate, where you can sometimes spy the radar readings of the ML scouts who are always in attendance.
Origins of Major League Starting Pitchers, 2008 –
 Minor League Ball John Sickels looks at all the starting pitchers with 10 or more win shares in 2008 and looks at where they were at when they stepped over to the professional game. First rounders have a big edge, but what stands out is that successful pitchers come from everywhere.
A similar list tracking the last 20 Â or more years would be of great interest, if anyone has time tomorrow (or the next day), since the list itself isn’t exactly objective. I would assume that the way scouts and organizations work has changed over the years, and this would be reflected. Or, more tantalyzingly, maybe not.
Stephen Strasburg 3.5.09
This is one of a number of videos that Eun Park posted on John Sickel’s site.
After reading about Strasberg, seeing him is something of a let down. He seems to be short arming the ball, which is a way to gain some speed, at great cost to one’s arm. This clip is most interesting when the woman in the row ahead of Eun fluffs up her hair. The juxtaposition of hard working moundsman and sensual hair tossing is poetic.
On the other hand, this clearly wasn’t Strasberg’s best day, so it would be foolish to draw any conclusions. But watching this I wouldn’t give him $15m even if I had it.
Top Earning Pitchers with No Bid Price
I’m working on this week’s update for the Patton $ Software and Data and found a category that might be of interest. These are the pitchers that neither Alex nor Michael have put bid prices on, who I have given the highest valued projections. I guess this is really a reflection of my prejudices this year filtered by Alex and Mike’s bids. If they think they’ll be around on draft day they aren’t on this list:
- Tommy Hunter, TEX
- Ben Sheets, FA (Texas likely)
- Wade Davis, TB
- Jeff Neimann, TB
- Daryl Thompson, CIN
- Ian Kenneday, NYA
- Kevin Mulvey, MIN
- Jon Niese, NYN
- Tommy Hanson, ATL
- Anthony Swarzak, MIN
- Kyle McClellan, STL
- Casey Janssen, TOR
- Dustin Mosely, ANA
- Eduardo Morlan, TB
Make of this what you will. Or can.
Maximum impact sluggers
This is just a solid bit of analysis of power hitters we don’t know for next year. Or, like Chris Davis, who we think we know too well.
According to former BaseballHQer Melchior, Davis should be fine but not great, and you shouldn’t overlook all those strike outs (he shows you why).
Good stuff, though you shouldn’t overrely on strikeout rates to gauge future performance. Still, youngsters who fail to make contact have a lot of things they have to improve if they’re going to be successful the second time round the league. Most, as Al points out, don’t make it.
Spikes Up: Fourth Annual Top 35 Prospects
To be honest, prospect lists are suspect. I don’t know any minor league expert who has actually seen all the players he writes about. And to their credit, the best writers (I like Sickels and Callis, but when I listen to McCamey I’m charmed) let you know who they’ve seen and who’s bubbling up through some statistical filter.
Rob’s list is of interest because it seems unassailable in it’s intelligence. I’m pretty sure Rob would agree that these lists offer little real guidence for future performance. The interesting reason is why:
Because nobody knows. Or maybe it’s better said that we all know a little.
Industry Top 100 Prospect Analysis
Adam Forster looks at the Top 100 Prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN, Mound Talk and his own website and compares them, looking for analytical trends. No real conclusions can be drawn, I think you’d have to look at a few years worth of lists to get a fair appraisal of tendencies, but he shines a very bright light on the issues that go into the making of one of these lists.
He’ll share data, too, if you ask.