Projections

Ask Rotoman: Gyorko or Rendon in Dynasty Strat?

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Dear Rotoman:

I play in a Strat-o-matic league with Dynasty rules. I can draft Jedd Gyorko or Anthony Rendon next, and keep him forever. Who would you take?

“Seconds to Choose”

SD_Padres_Jedd_GyorkoDear Seconds:

My fast answer is Gyorko. He’s coming into his prime, should have more value this year and next, and has no playing time issues. Rendon filled in admirably when called on last year, but he’s not guaranteed playing time this year. This, the short term instant answer has to be Gyorko.

But you’re also asking about these two player’s careers. Which of them will have more value?

Gyorko demonstrated last year, at age 25, that he’s already a major league hitter, hitting for power in Petco, his offense-suppressing home field. His second half, after he returned from a groin injury in June, was not nearly as strong as the first half, but let’s chalk that up to growing pains. He makes enough contact that his batting average should be a little better than last year’s .249. And he’s a legitimate power threat at second base at a young age.

Rendon was called up last year when Danny Espinosa was sent down with a bad wrist and a horrible swing. Rendon is a little less than two years younger than Gyorko, and he was generally considered the better prospect before last season, and then had roughly an equivalent season (better BA and OBP, somewhat less power) at a younger age.

Curiously, both played second base last year, though both are considered better third basemen (dubious range, strong arms) going forward. And neither has a big defensive advantage, which matters more in Strat than most games.

The roster question you have to settle is how much NOW do you want to give up for a possibly somewhat better TOMORROW?

When it comes to career values, give something of an edge to Rendon. But this year and maybe next, you have to give an edge to Gyorko. Fangraphs various predictors  (Steamer and Oliver, but not the Fans) give Gyorko a WAR edge this year of 3.4 to 2.9.

Oliver, which makes five-year projections has Gyorko winning each of those years, though shows the margin falling by 2019. I have no idea how meaningful that is, but it does give you an idea of the possibilities.

For my part, in the Guide I have Gyorko priced at $15 this year, Rendon at $9. The big difference is expected playing time.

Since neither of these guys is likely to be a huge star, I think I’d take Gyorko now. Consider it better the bird in the hand, than counting on chickens before they hatch.

Avianly,
Rotoman

 

More Hitter/Pitcher Split Talk at Fangraphs

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Eno Sarris took a twittersation I had with Chris Liss, Steve Gardner, Jeff Erickson and Mike Gianella, following my appearance on the radio with Chris and Jeff earlier day, and turned it into more talk about these valuation issues.

You can read my fully expressed take at rotomansguide.com. And I’ll be writing more about some ancillary issues in the coming days at that site.

 

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2014 Professional Edition Has Landed!

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Cover_FBG2014_v32

The 15th annual is on its way to stores now. It includes profiles of more than 1,400 players, Picks and Pans or more than 300 players by an awe-inspiring roster of fantasy baseball talent, special profiles of this season’s Top 25 Rookie candidates, an excerpt from Larry Schechter’s new book, an NFBC-rules Mock Draft of top industry professionals, five Strategies of Champions pieces in which winners tell how they did it, and our§ information packed Draft At A Glance pages for each position, filled with tier notes, bid price lists and fast facts about last year’s profits and losses.

The Overachievers (or are they?): What to expect from the first half’s most surprising hitters

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The challenge on draft day is to buy a guy at his price, what everyone expects him to earn, and then get all the production that comes with a breakout season. In other words, much more than you paid for. This year, the biggest breakouts on offense have been Jean Segura, Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Nate McLouth, Everth Cabrera, Daniel Nava, Manny Machado, Domonic Brown, Matt Carpenter and James Loney (with honorable mention to Yasiel Puig and Carlos Gomez). What should you expect from them going ahead?

Jean Segura. He cost $15 in Tout Wars and earned his owner $41 in the first half. After a hot start hitting with power his SLG has declined each month, but his July BA is .314 after a .277 June. It was expected his wheels would earn him his pay, and they have, but it was the power surge that bumped him to the top of this list. He’s got 24 steals with only four CS. Given our expectations going into the season versus his red hot first two months, it seems reasonable to expect about a .300 BA with four homers and another 15 steals. That’s a very good shortstop.

Chris Davis. Cost $20 in Tout Wars, and earned $45 in the first half. After a couple of promising seasons in Texas, Davis failed for long enough that just about everyone became skeptical about him, but now after proving himself as capable last year, he’s pushing into new territory for just about everyone this year. He was on pace for 62 homers at the midway point, and has hit six more since. The big issues here are gravity and opportunity. Can he remain aloft for much longer? And will he get fewer chances to hit, as teams work around him? He’s hitting more fly balls than ever, and hitting homers on 36 percent of his fly balls. That’s not sustainable in the long run. Still, even if his homer per rate falls to last year’s rate he’s got something like 20 homers coming the rest of the way. (Note: He tore a callous during the HR Derby, an event which has a history of messing up power hitters. The injury isn’t supposed to be a big deal, but anything that affects a hitter’s hands shouldn’t be ignored.)

Josh Donaldson. Went for $10 in Tout Wars, was earning $22 at midseason. Expectations were low because he really didn’t produce last year and with the addition of Jed Lowrie playing opportunities appeared to be limited in Oakland. Instead, Donaldson has confidently established himself as a power hitter, with an increased walk rate and a decrease in strikeouts. His BABIP and HR/FB are higher than ever before, and it seems likely he’ll end up hitting .280 rather than .310, but it also appears he’s made the adjustment to big league pitching. Now it’s up to the pitchers to block him back. Unless they succeed, look for 12 homers and a .275 BA the rest of the way.

Nate McLouth. Only $3 in Tout Wars, at the midway point he was earning $25. For those who noticed his strong September in 2012 and picked him up for a song this spring, April was very sweet. Since then, he’s been a bargain for the price, but not one of the best offensive players in the game. That’s the player you should expect the rest of the way. His past history has a $30 and $20 season in it, but those were a long time ago. Expect him to hit less than .260 with four homers and 14 steals.

Everth Cabrera. He went for $17 in Tout Wars, and was earning $33 on July 1 despite spending time on the DL. Last year he had a low BA with a high BABIP, which seemed to be a warning, but this year he has the same BABIP and a good BA. His basestealing skills are for real and are rare. He still led the league in steals after missing three weeks with a hammy strain. He’s stolen three bases in the week since he returned, so all seems to be okay on that count. Expect 25 to 30 steals and a BA somewhere between .250 and .300.

Daniel Nava. Was taken in the reserve round in Tout Wars, by Larry Schechter, and at midseason was earning $20. When he was pressed into action in 2012 he impressed at first, but then inevitably slumped some and his season ended in injury. Nava, who is 30 years old, was forgotten after the Red Sox signed Victorino and Jonny Gomes. We would do well to remember that when teams sign someone like Gomes, a power platoon player, they also create an opportunity for someone else. Nava got his chance and ran with it this year, with additional chances because of Victorino’s injuries. Nava has been much the same player this year as last, a mature hitter without special skills, who will hit with a little power (figure six homers) and post a .765 OPS (and .265 BA).

Manny Machado. He cost $14 in Tout Wars last March, and was earning $32 after the first half of the season. Promoted aggressively last year, he’s bloomed this year as a hitter. He’s a free swinger who makes plenty of contact, which thus far has led to a high BABIP and nice BA. The danger here is not that he isn’t capable of making contact and running for a good BA, at least for a while, but it’s a hard thing to pull off for an extended period because pitchers are always looking for a way to exploit your aggressiveness. He should hit another 6-8 homers, with a batting average that could range from .250 to .300 or so, though I would plan on the lower end of the range and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Domonic Brown. He went for $14 in Tout Wars, and had earned $31 at the halfway point this season. He was a can’t-miss prospect, the scouts said a few years ago, but to those of us who saw him hit (and didn’t see the projectability), he looked like a looming bust. And that’s the way he continued to look the last two years, with dismal stints in Philadelphia punctuating not-great stints in Triple-A. But when I saw him in spring training early in March he struck me as a different hitter, with a shorter stroke and a willingness to go the other way. Others saw the same thing, and though his role was entirely clear he went for a decent price for a guy who had lost his prospect luster. A slow start got everyone doubting, but when he exploded he blew up and by the end of May he was earning $28. He’s improved that in June, and though July has been quieter one senses we’re simply waiting for the next hot streak. If has just one more, look for 14 or so homers the rest of the way, but he’s a prime candidate for a huge September when rosters expand in September.

Matt Carpenter. Tout Wars went to $14 for him, and in the first half he’s earned $25. Questions about playing time kept his price down a little, and had some of us thinking his Tout price was an overbid. Wrong. Carpenter was rightly given the job at second base (when David Freese is able to play) and he’s pretty much performed as he did last year, only with middle infield eligibility. He’s got a higher batting average and a smidge more power, but that should be expected with more experience, shouldn’t it? Figure the BA will come down to .290-.300 the rest of the way and otherwise expect more of the same.

James Loney. Tout Wars price: $8, with midseason earnings of $25. Please indulge my personal grouse here: The last two years I bought Loney for what seemed like discount prices given his history of earnings, and he failed me. This year I let him go for cheap to the Tampa homer, and Loney’s back to being the dude he always was (and the Tampa homer is in first place by a lot). I hate that. Actually, Loney has been more than he’s been in the past, showing more power in Tampa than he had in LA all those years. He’s actually hitting fewer fly balls and more line drives this year, but his percentage of balls leaving the yard is up to a healthy 11 percent. My guess is that this reflects a better more aggressive approach, and as long as he stays focused and motivated earnings in the $20-25 range are sustainable. That means another six or seven homers, but probably with an average closer to .290-.295.

Two Short Notes:

Yasiel Puig‘s hot start is an illusion. It’s fantastic fun, but obviously he’s not going to hit .391 while striking out 24 percent of the time. It’s really hard to tell where he’s going to land, however, and how hard he’s going to fall. Based on the strikeouts and ground balls, I’d expect him to hit .270 the rest of the way, with 10-12 homers, but that’s really just a WAG. If the pitchers figure out the swing sooner he could be in the minors just like that.

Carlos Gomez has added power the last two years, is still fast, and is way over his head right now in BA. Line drive percentage suggests he should perhaps be hitting for a slightly higher average, but he’s currently got a BABIP .040 points above his career number. The power and speed are real, but his batting average should come down closer to .260 the rest of the way.

Ask Rotoman: Down on Upton? Raising the Aybar?

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Dear Rotoman:

Should I drop BJ Upton and take Erick Aybar? Upton has not hit anything.

Greg

Dear Greg:

The last three years BJ Upton has earned $20, $24 and $24. Erick Aybar has earned $13, $13 and $18.

Going into this season I expected Upton would be worth paying $27 for, while I priced Aybar at $18.

Upton is a little younger than Aybar, but both are in their late 20s, pretty much prime time for established players, which both of them are.

So far Upton has earned -$1, while Aybar has earned $1 after missing 15 days on the DL with a sore heel.

Since we’re just a month into the season, recent performance is really not a trusted indicator of performance the rest of the season, unless we can find a reason for Upton’s problems that suggest something new. So, what has changed since last year?

Well, he’s playing on a new team in a different league, so maybe there are some familiarity issues, with ballparks and pitchers, but one of the reasons for bumping his price was that he was moving from a pitcher’s park to a neutral run environment for his home games. That should offset, at least partly.

He’s been seeing the usual mix of pitches but hasn’t been getting ahead in the count quite as much as he did last year, but the difference isn’t great and he hasn’t hit when he’s been ahead. When he does hit the ball he’s hitting more ground balls and fewer flies and line drives, but these differences aren’t huge.

Upton has always been a hitter who works the count, walks a fair amount but strikes out a lot, leading to a low batting average. If that doesn’t bother you, however, he has good speed and home run power (which is no doubt why you rostered him). The alarming thing is that he’s striking out more this year than he ever has before (31 percent versus 25 percent of plate appearances).

The bottom line here, however, is that despite his struggles Upton is on pace to hit 18 homers and steal 18 bases, and he’s not going to hit .143 the rest of the way. If he’s struggling because he’s facing a fresh set of pitchers and/or because he’s carrying the burden of a big new contract, as the season goes along he’s going to get more familiar with the league and the parks and the hurlers, and the contract will become a lot less new. So figure he’ll bounce back, at least partly, and hit about .220 with 15-20 homers and 15-20 steals, and hope for more and better (which is what he’s done historically).

Erick Aybar will hit for a better average, figure about .290 or so, and steal a comparable number of bases, but he’s likely to hit fewer homers. Figure him for 5-10, more are unlikely.

At this point, who do you like? If batting average matters you probably should have bought Aybar on draft day, but obviously context changes as the season goes on (especially when you’re carrying someone who is hitting .140). Aybar will deliver a decent to good batting average, but not the counting numbers overall that Upton is likely to. But Upton does carry the threat of total failure this year. It does happen, especially with low contact-type hitters (see Adam Dunn’s 2011), so if you want to play it safe Aybar might be the better choice for you.

I would stick with Upton because of the potential upside, the one that I saw on draft day. But if BA matters to you Aybar could prove more valuable even if Upton bounces back. That’s the decision you’ll have to make based on your lineup.

Unevenly floppy,
Rotoman

Ps. I found this preseason poll at fantasypros.com.
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The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2013 Update == Is Out Now! And a correction.

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Updated projections and Big Prices for the Guide can be found here.

I just corrected a few projections wins totals from the March 14 update. What happened was I used the mechanical adjustment built into the Patton software to increase the projected value of Verlander, King Felix, and Jered Weaver. The mechanical adjustment gave each of them too many projected wins. Wins are a very arbitrary category, and while any of these excellent pitchers could win 23 or 25 wins, the odds are so much against them doing so that it’s silly to project them to do that. I’ve reduced their win totals. Their earnings suffer, but that’s because they’re projected for the injury risk, which is the best reason NOT to bid up pitchers. They sometimes get hurt, catastrophically.

Of course, when they don’t get hurt the best pitchers are usually the best pitchers, which is a good reason to bid them up to their true value (which is already discounted 33 percent because of the hitter/pitcher budget split). How you land on this question is usually a matter of whether you bought Chris Carpenter in is healthy or unhealthy years, or Roy Halladay last year.