Players

ASK ROTOMAN: Wacha Flocka Cashner?

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Hi Rotoman –

Can you explain how prices sometimes do not coordinate with projections? For example below are your projections for Cashner and Wacha:

Cashner: 10 W, 3.53 ERA, 149 K, 1.24 WHIP
Wacha: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 173 K, 1.16 WHIP

Yet you have Cashner at $16 and Wacha at $8.

Could the difference be perceived risk?

“Wacha Flaka Cashner”

Dear WFC:
In the Fantasy Guide, the projections are a starting point. They’re based on past performance rates regressed toward the mean, with some manual adjustments, scaled to a rough estimate of playing time (which is also regressed). The Projections are my attempt to describe a player using numbers. I hope that they give a sense how hittable a guy is, what sort of control he has, does he hit for average, can he run, that sort of thing.

The Big Prices in the Guide are my attempt to fix a guy’s value against the market. The prices are meant to be advice on who to buy and who to not buy. Essentially, I try to set the price on guys I expect to do well a buck or two higher than their “market” price. And guys I have concerns about, I set a buck or two lower.

It is important to note that the Prices add up to the budget for a 12-team AL or NL league with $260 budget per team. The reason to budget this way is because it helps you track the spending during the auction. If guys are going for more than the bid prices, you know that there are going to be bargains later. If guys are going for less? A bubble is born.

Now, let’s fast forward to March 15. That’s the day I posted the updated projections and prices here, for purchasers of the Guide. The adjusted projections were:

Cashner: 184 IP, 3.54 ERA, 10 W, 149 K, 1.14 WHIP
Wacha: 172 IP, 3.77 ERA, 11 W, 163 K, 1.24 WHIP

Now here’s the interesting part. The price for Cashner in 5×5 is $16. The price for Wacha is $15. But if you translate the above to dollar values, Cashner’s line is worth about $17, while Wacha’s is worth $8.

What happened?

Two things. As we hurtled toward the baseball season I learned that the market for Wacha is red hot. People consistently have him valued higher than Shelby Miller, which I think is a little wacky. It turns out that he tends to be going in the $16-$18 range in startup auctions. If I kept him at my pessimistic $8 price, it would look like a massive overpay when he went for twice that on draft day. But it isn’t really. The low end of the market for Wacha is $16, and I don’t want him at that.

Cashner, on the other hand, is a guy I want at $16. I mean, I’d rather have him at $14, and that’s been his average price this preseason, ranging from $13 to $15, but if I have to go $16 I’m okay with that.

The other thing I did was tinker with the projections to better reflect my perceptions about these two.

Wacha was a fastball/changeup guy last year. That’s it. An excellent fastball, a tough change, and early success, but it’s really hard to sustain a high level of success over multiple times through the lineup with just two pitches. No matter how good they are. My pessimism derives from the limited arsenal and the good chance that as major league scouts and hitters get repeated looks at him, there is going to be some payback.

The reason why most everyone thinks I’m wrong is because Wacha has added a curveball, which he threw a fair amount in his first start this year, and a cutter, which he didn’t throw much. It’s early, the pitches are new, and so there’s a lot we know. If he adds them effectively, he will become every bit the ace he looked like late last year. My bet is there is going to be some adjusting and he’s going to have some rough starts. So I think he’ll allow more hits and runs. We’ll see.

Cashner, on the other hand, is older, more experienced, has a more traditional fastball/slider/change repertoire already in place. I like him being at least as good as he was last year, when he earned $17.

The final word is that this process is one that consists of information, generated by the players that play, the press that follows them and tells the world what happened, and the numbers that describe what they did. This information is distilled by analysts as it comes in and added to both the projection, something of a description of average talent levels, and the market, which filters it all through the lens of risk and reward, which leads to bid values.

The whole process stops, for a few seconds at least, the moment the auctioneer says Sold! And then it starts all over again.

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Quentin or Morse?

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Hi Rotoman:

I’m looking through ADP and I can anticipate a problem deciding between Carlos Quentin and Mike Morse. How should I go?

“Buyers Remorse”

Dear BR:

Go elsewhere!

These two guys are not hitters you want to be making an investment in. Morse is the classic late bloomer. He didn’t really make the majors until 2010, as a 28 year old, albeit because of injuries and a couple of drug infractions. He had a big season in 2011 and hasn’t come close to duplicating that. He was hurt most of last year, had surgery and is expected to be better, but given his history the only way he should land on your team is if he’s the last sort-of regular outfielder left.

Carlos Quentin reached the majors in a more traditional manner, and had a fairly successful run in Chicago as a power hitter while in his mid-20s. He’s struggled in San Diego to stay healthy, and limited playing time and a tough park for homers has limited his value.

I would take Quentin, who is the better hitter, over Morse every time, but unfortunately that doesn’t mean he’s going to outearn him. Really, in a perfect world I’d avoid them both and find cheerier players to put on my team.

Happily,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Lake At The Top?

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Dear Rotoman,

in the current TXT files, you have Junior Lake hitting .318.  Typo or irrational exuberance?  If typo, what do you really predict (I’m curious, he’s pretty high variance).

“Junior Birdman”

Screenshot 2014-03-17 22.56.11Dear Jr.

Not really a typo, but one of those instances where a player with limited major league playing time has a high BABIP and a high strikeout rate, and manages to go through the projection tweaking without me noticing his outsized batting average.

If I had noticed I would have dropped Junior Lake’s BA projection this year to .275, which is more in line with his past production and contact rate. Maybe it’s a bit high, actually, but he’s always had a good BABIP coming up through minors. It’s hard to take that completely away from him without good reason.

The other numbers I have for him in the Patton $ Software and Data, are right on, but the .318 is the absolute high end of the possibilities for him this year. That’s if he strikes out less, gets on base a lot on batted balls, hits a homer every 40 at bats or so. That’s possible.

Equally possible is that major league pitchers are going to see that he’s not patient, and they’re going to extend the zone on him. He’s going to strike out more, and pop out more, and his average is going to drop to .235. That’s possible, too.

Which is the variance you’re talking about, Junior B. and I’m glad you brought it up. My projection for Lake has him earning $13 in 420 AB, hitting 10 homers and stealing eight bases (but getting caught nearly as much). That’s batting .275. But I’m willing to pay $7, a bit more than half, because even though there is a fair chance he’ll do better, there is an equally fair chance he’ll do worse. And I want to get caught holding a smaller bag if that happens.

I’ve seen Lake play and it looks like he has the physical skills to excel, the question is in his head and desire. You don’t want to bet on the come hoping those things develop now, but a modest bet will have decent upside if the others in your league let him go.

Cautiously,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: White Sox Position Battles

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Hey Rotoman:

When the White Sox resigned Paul Konerko and traded for Adam Eaton, they seem to have ended up with way too many players for OF, 1B and DH. What’s going to happen there?

“Chicago River Jam”

CT ct-met-Patricks-79992.jpgDear River Jam,

As we approach St. Patrick’s Day, when the Chicago River runs green with blarney, this is not a bad time to try to figure out what the south side squad has in mind.

Here are the players in the mix (I’m going to cross them off as we determine their role): Jose Abreu, Alejandro De Aza, Adam Dunn, Adam Eaton, Avisail Garcia, Paul Konerko, Dayan Viciedo.

Here are the positions: DH, 1B, LF, CF, RF. Looks like seven players for five positions

Let’s start with DH. Adam Dunn will hit (or walk) against righties. He was not great against righties last year, but not good against lefties. Paul Konerko was not good at all, overall, last year, but was very good against lefties. That seems like a nice match.

1B. Jose Abreu has been solid during spring training, which seems to be increasing confidence that his move into the majors is going to be a smooth one. Maybe. But what happens if he struggles? Success during the first couple of weeks of games in spring training is pretty meaningless. Keep an eye on Abreu’s health and effectiveness through the rest of camp (he’s having physical issues with his feet and ankles). When he can’t play, it looks like either Dunn or Konerko will be backing him up.

LF. This would seem to be a battle between Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo. De Aza doesn’t have a big platoon split in his career but has generally been protected against left-handed arms. Viciedo has been much better against lefties in his career, but was a little better against righties last year. De Aza is coming off two fine fantasy years, but he’s more of a liability in real life baseball, making plenty of outs while he’s stealing bases and hitting homers. Viciedo is the youngster, the potential power source who has yet to erupt. It’s tempting to see this as a head to head matchup, or a straightaway platoon, but Viciedo’s potential development and De Aza’s usefulness playing center field mean that there could be room for both men, at least some of the time.

CF. Adam Eaton was supposed to take the league by storm last year. He was a fantasy darling before camps even opened, the sure source of scores of stolen bases, except that he wasn’t. After hurting his elbow in spring training and deciding not to have surgery, he did not run wild in the second half of the season. He then found himself traded to Chicago in the offseason. No one knows whether he can be an everyday centerfielder or whether he can hit and run enough to help a team batting leadoff. He is far from proven. He’s ripping it up in spring training so far, but that’s just 26 at bats. De Aza was the team’s center fielder last year and is insurance this year should Eaton stumble at the plate or have his elbow unravel under stress.

RF. The White Sox traded Jake Peavy last summer to the Red Sox in a three-way deal that returned the excellent outfield prospect Avisail Garcia from Detroit. Garcia hit .304 after landing in Chitown last summer, raising hopes that Little Miggy (his Motor City nickname, based on body type, not hitting profile) will step into the right field job without issue. Could happen, but the youngster (he turns 23 in June) is pretty unseasoned, walked just 9 times in 249 at bats last year, while striking out nearly 25 percent of at bats. Garcia’s success this year is far from guaranteed. Some contingency has to be available should he struggle. That would be De Aza, too.

370px-Dayán_Viciedo_on_June_26,_2012CONCLUSION: What looks like a mountain of alewives piling up at the south end of Lake Michigan doesn’t look that bad under closer examination. At least in terms of planning. There are some potential success stories brewing, including Viciedo, Eaton and Garcia, and valedictory turns positioned for success, in Dunn and Konerko. De Aza’s versatility will be utilized, one way or the other, and the door is open for Jose Abreu, who has the talent to explode onto the scene. To my taste, the sweetest anchovy in the box is Viciedo, whose price has been dropping because of the uncertainty (and his own slow development). He is just two years older than Garcia, approaching that age where smarts and experience best complement a player’s natural physical gifts.

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Does Sizemore Matter?

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Dear Rotoman,

What are your thoughts on Grady Sizemore?

“Thinking Along”

Dear Thinking,

In the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2013 we ran profiles of both Grady and Scott Sizemore. With Grady we noted his three microfracture surgeries, his possible timetable of a midseason return, and said it was best to have no expectations. Scott Sizemore was expected to be healthy after surgery to repair his ACL, which he tore in 2012. $3 I said, for the As third baseman. But Scott Sizemore again tore his ACL in the second game, thus ending his 2013 season. Meanwhile, there was no sign of Grady. Which is why I decided to scratch both of them from the 2014 Guide. Oops.

Now they’re back. Scott Sizemore is competing with the equally back-from-the-dead second baseman Brian Roberts for the Yankees job at second base. And Grady is trying out with the Red Sox, ostensibly to serve as their fourth outfielder.

Here are the knocks on Grady. He hasn’t played a full season since 2008. He was passably productive (.788 OPS) in 503 plate appearances in 2009, and has been ineffectual when not not playing since. That’s a lot of down time. But Grady was a finely conditioned athlete (see illustration), and presumably hasn’t shirked on the upper body while rehabbing his knees.

Screenshot 2014-03-14 09.34.43Still, keeping muscle tone (and this isn’t a recent selfie, this is from 2009) is easier when you’re 31 (turns 32 in August) than it is to keep your bat speed and timing. Especially after years of not facing real pitching. Which isn’t to say he can’t do it.

I was skeptical last year of Victor Martinez coming back effectively after a year off. I could find little evidence of other hitters at his age missing a full year and becoming effective regulars again. Martinez, of course, did just fine. History is a guide, not a destiny.

So, Sizemore has age on his side, but has essentially missed his entire prime to injury. He lands on the post-prime part of his career with a history that offers only caution and hope. It would be nice if he regained some of his career, wouldn’t it?

The nice thing for fantasy players is that he’s a late-round low-cost flyer at this point. Skepticism is damping down his price, while there is a real chance for playing time if Jackie Bradley Jr. doesn’t grab hold of the starting job or someone gets hurt. That could mean real value if Sizemore can actually play.

The problem, of course, is that he’s a low contact high-walk-and-strikeout type of player, which means in a BA league he’s likely to hurt you in that category. He’s had a little power, and maybe will add to that, as guys often do as they move into their 30s. What made him specially valuable back in his glory days were his legs, but since they’ve been the motor of his downfalling, don’t count on big steals numbers. Still, you have to think that if he’s going to make the team as a backup centerfielder that the legs will be healed.

I haven’t put a projection in the software at this point because really? If you made me I’d say 300 AB, .235 BA, .350 OBP, 10 HR and 5 SB. I’d pay a buck for the chance that works out. I’d use a 23rd round pick in AL only. I wouldn’t assume any mixed league value.

I would also wonder why I thought an obvious bad pun was a good idea for a headline?

Seismically,
Rotoman

PLAYING TIME: Seattle’s Shortstops

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Screenshot 2014-03-13 08.41.57When the Mariners added Robinson Cano as a free agent this past winter, they forced one of their top prospects, Nick Franklin, from the position he seemed likely to hold onto for the foreseeable future. For all intents and purposes, this set up a battle for shortstop between the team’s top two middle infield prospects.

Brad Miller is the older of the two and had the better rookie season. He’s got a good eye, makes good contact and stepped up into the majors with only a small hit to his walk rate last year. He’s also played more shortstop than Franklin.

Franklin stumbled in the majors last year, hitting .225. He was able to draw walks in the majors, but his contact rate took a big hit and his batting average crashed. But even his minor league contact rates trailed Miller’s. Franklin has more power, however, he hit 12 homers last year, and might end up getting on base as much as Miller once he adjusts to big league pitching. The question is whether he’ll get the chance this year.

There are a few possibilities here and one could burn a lot of pixels over the backs and forths of the arguments, most of which end up with the logical conclusion that two bodies cannot exist in the same space. The bottom line is that last year Miller’s bat was ready, Franklin’s was not. Both are having strong springs, which makes this all clear as mud, but the course that makes more baseball sense is to give Miller—the older more established candidate—the job, send Franklin down for more seasoning, and see what happens.

If Franklin gets off to a hot start maybe there’s a trade to be had, or an injury will change all the conditions. If Miller stumbles, a team that has struggled to get prospects started on the road to their self realization as major league regulars (I’m not just blowing Smoak here), will have Franklin and Willie Bloomquist to fall back on.

That seems like the most likely way to get everyone in place to succeed.

ASK ROTOMAN: Where’s Harvey?

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Hey Rotoman!

I have been using your Guide every year for about 10 now. Best on the market! I got a question for you though, why doesn’t Harvey have a writeup this year? All other injured players past and present have had them.

“Long Time Reader”

DSC_0163_Matt_HarveyDear LTR:

I think it’s true that in the past we’ve covered some injured pitchers in the Guide, but I’m pretty sure we haven’t covered all of them.

In recent years we’ve been adding more information to the player profiles in the Guide, and added Picks and Pans writers, so that we’ve trimmed the number of players profiled from 1600 to 1400 (or so).

Most of these have been short relievers who pitched only a few innings the year before, who have little to no chance at a larger role in the coming year. But some have been injured pitchers and guys who seem to have retired. Like Bobby Abreu.

So maybe we have changed the way we do things a little. And it’s likely that every decision isn’t the best one, though that’s what I strive for.

Fortunately, I also have this forum to redress any possible errors. Forthwith, possible profiles for Bobby Abreu and Matt Harvey:

BOBBY ABREU: One of the reasons that he looked old and slow in 2012 was because he was really old and really slow. It was no illusion. The notion that he could take a year off at his advanced age and regain his major league skills would seem totally fantastical. But Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg has said Abreu could win a job as a pinch-hitter/bench sort, so we have to take that seriously. A year like Jason Giambi’s post 40s output wouldn’t be outrageous to get, but it would be ridiculous to expect.

MATT HARVEY: Was absolutely killing the National League when he went down in August. Waited until October to have the TJ, which crushed any chance of a late 2014 cuppa. Keeper league rules are too various to suggest a future price, but it is good to remember that while starting pitchers usually return to form after successful TJ about a year afterwards, the rule of thumb until full return (if there is full return) is two years. You can do the math from there.

In hindsight, including a short comment about an injured star, like Harvey, is probably the right thing to do. Thanks for your question.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: A One Or A Two?

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Rotoman!

I’m in a 12 team roto league keeper. my keeper options are either keeping Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Gonzalez or Goldschmidt, Yasiel Puig and Jason Kipnis?. So really the question is Cargo or Puig/Kipnis? We can keep players forever so I want to make sure I make the right decision. 

“Eternally Yours”

Dear Eternally:

What I don’t know, because you didn’t tell me, is why you can only keep one extra guy if you keep Cargo, or  the two other guys if you go that way. That feels unusual to me, but let’s run with it because we can make something of a closer look, whatever your rules are.

Of the three, Gonzalez is probably the best hitter, but because of injuries he didn’t earn as much as Kipnis last year. Still, I have him at $34 for this year, with Kipnis at $27 and Puig at $24. Puig is a bit of a wild card here. It would not be a surprise if he was a bust, but it would not be a surprise if he earned well into the 30s. We don’t know how he’s going to adapt to pitchers adaptations, and we don’t know whether the 26 pounds he added in the offseason was because of hard work or sloth.

But we do know that Kipnis earned $29 as a 26 year old. We also know that Gonzalez is 29 this year, while Puig turns 24. Which means the two guys have seven years on Gonzalez. If we assume each of these guys will play well until they’re 35, you’ll get six years out of Gonzalez, while you’ll get 19 years out of the other two. By that measure take the two.

But, I’m sure that isn’t the measure. Here’s what is:

Let’s assume that Cargo is $7 more valuable than Kipnis in a deep league for each of the next six years. That’s $42 more value, which is whittled down some amount in a shallow league because Kipnis plays a more valuable defensive position.

The question for you is whether Puig is going to outearn the player you would end up with instead by that same $42 or more over the next six years. Obviously, given the information I have I can’t answer that.

But what is important here for everyone to remember is, in multiplayer deals the measure isn’t just the players in the deal, but also the player who would have to be added or dropped who isn’t in the deal in order to make the rosters whole.

Completely incomplete,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Should I take a pitcher or hitter?

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Dear Rotoman:

Having trouble deciding who to take first round. Its a 6×6 H2H league and a 4 keeper league, so technically the first round is the 5th. I have the first pick and here are the best available in the order I like them.

  • Jose Fernandez
  • Alex Rios
  • Adam Wainwright 
  • Jose Bautista 
  • Steven Strasburg
  • Ian Desmond
  • Hunter Pence
  • Matt Carpenter
  • Chris Sale
  • Sin Soo Choo

My keepers are already : Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, David Price, and Adrian Gonzalez.

“Sitting Pretty”

Dear Sitting,

I’m flying a little blind here, since I don’t know what six pitching categories you’re playing with. Some leagues add Holds. If that’s the case in your league I would definitely take a hitter with your first pick, but even if your sixth category is Quality Starts (another popular choice) I would probably take a hitter.

That’s because you already have a quality starter as a keeper, and in Head to Head you want to pile up quality at bats. Obviously pitching matters, you want quality starts, but as we’ve seen, there will be plenty of starting pitching available late in the draft, in the reserve rounds and off the waiver wire for you to stream against weak offenses in pitchers parks week after week.

There won’t be power speed guys like Alex Rios, or power/on base guys like Jose Bautista after the next round or two. So load up while you can.

That said, I’m not sure Rios and Bautista are your best hitters in this spot. Rios had a fine year again last year, perhaps escaping the yoke of an every-other-year reputation, finally. But given his age, shouldn’t he be more in danger of one of his inexplicable extended slumps? While Bautista has the injury time bomb ticking beneath him.

Don’t get me wrong, both are reasonable picks at this point, but I think the durable Hunter Pence is a better, more reliable pick, and not as good as Ian Desmond, who may be the youngest and best offensive player of the bunch and a shortstop to boot. That’s who I would take.

Ohbladi!
Rotoman