Players

My drafting is done.

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Yesterday the American Dream League members commenced their 27th Rotisserie baseball season with the auction at the venerable O’Reilly’s Irish Bar on 31st Street in New York City.

The ADL is the toughest league I know. Members include my buddy Alex Patton, inventor of Patton Dollars and Stage 3 Hell (which wasn’t in evidence yesterday), Peter Golenbock, prolific baseball and sports writer, Les Leopold, who dragged me into the fantasy baseball writing business as the projections guy for Golenbock’s annual “How to Win at Rotisserie Baseball,” which Les did most of the roto analysis for. Those are the fantasy pros.

Other players include Mark Starr, a sportswriter (among other things) at Newsweek, Steven Levy, the technology writer at Newsweek until just recently, when he moved to Wired, Walter Shapiro, Washington chief for Salon.com, Michael Walsh, a former Time music writer, novelist, screenwriter, small arms expert, Mark Goodman, former Time film critic, novelist, journalist and recently political writer, Mark Jurkowitz, a long time media critic, Steve Stoneburn, a publisher of magazines, a lover of Jayhawks, and Bruce Buschel, a playwright, journalist, jazz documentarian, and the owner of one of the wickedest whiffle curves you’ve ever seen.

Plus he can control it.

I bring all this up out of vanity. It was an intimidating auction I stepped in to back in 1992 (did I mention that I was invited into the league after they kicked Hugh Sweeney–yeah, the guy the Sweeney Plan is named after–out of the league?), and it has never become less so. These are smart guys who play hard with sharp elbows. You have to love it.

This year the Bad Kreuznachs entered the auction with a decent list of keepers, but with the problem that they were nearly all outfielders.

Maicer Izturis $5–Not an outfielder, and not named the starter at SS until the day after the auction. Whew.

Chone Figgins $19–He was cheap last year because he was hurt to start the season. He came back early, played incredibly well, and is a great bargain this year. You can’t count on anything close to last year’s average, but it will be a plus, as will the steals.

Torii Hunter $20–I traded for Hunter last year trying to add homers or something, but that was yesterday. At the end of the day (my run for the crown ended in a tie for fourth) Hunter became a nice keep to pick up.

Emil Brown $3–For some reason Emil was out of favor in KC last year, and trade bait to boot. He ended up not being traded and not being used that much. Not a bad player at $3 but a lot of potential squandered. The A’s seem to see that, as long as they can overlook his baserunning (yikes!), and with enough AB he becomes a great bargain this year.

Brad Wilkerson $8–The day after I froze him the M’s announced he’d be platooning with Mike Morse. If the days off keep him healthy I’m all for it. I worry more about the ballpark. If he doesn’t get his share of jacks, his bad BA overwhelms his other production.

Milton Bradley $11–Awfully frail, but generally he earns this. And he doesn’t seem to be a slacker, when he isn’t getting into tussles that is. In a good park to hit, with his career on the line, I’m smart enough not to drool. But I want to.

Okay, those are the keeps. With a solid foundation in speed, fairly cheap, the mission was to accumulate AB and HR. Despite Figgins big year with BA in 2007, this wasn’t a good BA team, and so I decided to ignore that as much as I could. But I also didn’t want to chuck it all, because as Figgins showed last year, a good run can make a world of difference. Which is why I went…

Joe Mauer $22–This was my inflated price for him. He’s lacking in power or speed in the big sense, but for a catcher he brings some of both and a reliably (I stupidly hope) good batting average to earn his way. The danger is his injury history. I had him priced at $22, so I just hope he plays. I’ll take par.

Jamie Burke $1–End game catcher who shouldn’t kill the BA, might add a smidge of power, a player I really hope doesn’t matter.

Travis Hafner $26–I discovered within minutes of the start of the draft that power was king. Starting pitchers didn’t escalate the way I thought they might, and my savvy opponents didn’t chase speed simply because there wasn’t much of it (all of it was frozen except Carl Crawford and a lot of parttimers). I had Hafner at $24, he qualified at 1B in our league, he might not in yours, and the little bump seemed like a win.

Richie Sexson $14–Same verse again as Hafner. I wanted homers. There weren’t many out there. Sexson has hit a lot of them. Last year was so awful I’m counting on a bounceback. When he started talking about how he was hurt last year I bought in. My fingers are crossed.

Juan Uribe $11–In AL leagues a major issue is there aren’t enough shortstops. In the second half of the draft I identified a few who would be worth something like $8, well above my $4 bid prices. These were guys like Uribe and David Eckstein. I was targeting power, so I was looking for Uribe, but when Eckstein went for $12 I knew I was screwed. I was going to have to pay whatever for Uribe. Whatever was $11. If he plays I’ll be glad for the homers, and it will be fine, but it’s too high a price for a guy who might not play that much when the day is done.

Anthony Callaspo $2–Endgame middle infielder probably isn’t going to push Esteban German aside, but the out of season chatter was that the Royals might deal German. Even so, Callaspo doesn’t run and has no power, even though he can hit.

Josh Hamilton $26–I’d been advising people to pay $18 for Hamilton, what he earned last year, even though I knew they’d pay more for the possibility of more. When Hamilton came out in this draft lots of players were gone, and while there was still plenty of meat out there, Hamilton was the guy who might surprise. I got in a pissing match with Patton, and when it was over I felt I’d won despite the price. It was a situation decision, not one based on budget. If Hamilton earns his share, and he certainly could, I should have an incredible offense.

Reggie Willets $3–The real endgame, here’s a guy who earned real money last year, playing behind a bunch of guys who make it seem likely he won’t get much playing time this year. Which crushes his price. I won’t claim he’s a bargain, but he’s been a ML regular. For $3 I’ll be happy to be wrong.

I started the auction with no starting pitching, and almost all the good starters except Verlander and Bedard kept. I toyed with not spending any money on starters, but given my good freeze list I decided that it would be dumm to dump two categories in the auction. So I competed.

Justin Verlander $33–He was the best available starter and I had him at an inflated price of $36. Closed.

Justin Duchscherer $10–I have him well at a price in line with the prices I’ve been seeing, though a bit higher than I thought he’d go. At that point in the draft he looked like one of the more reliable pitchers left, incredibly enough. A risky pick, but when I took him I thought he’d go another bump.

Edwin Jackson $3–Looked good this spring. Was pretty decent the last two months last year. He was once a phenom. All that adds up to me that he’s worth a gamble.

Jason Jennings $2–Last year’s meltdown destroyed his rep, but he pitched very effectively in Colorado the year before. If he’s functioning I think I’m going to be awfully glad I have him.

Gavin Floyd $1–I thought I’d have to spend $3, but it worked out. He’s had a good spring, he has pedigree, and I’m not looking too closely because if I did I’d be rocking my head in despair. He’s a flyer I’m glad I got.

Francisco Rodriguez $22–I was pretty much price enforcing when KRod went for $22. I started writing about the collapse of closer prices years ago, but the trend continues. I’m not sure it’s so wise anymore to pass closers by completely, when prices are so low compared to the benefits, but this is the market working out what the real value of the saves guy is.

CJ Wilson $12–There weren’t many good closer alternatives left when I exercised my topper option on Wilson, turning an $11 bid into $12. He’s the Texas closer for now. He’s got the wrong arm, but he’s got great stuff. I picked him off the waiver wire last year, which is why I own his Topper now. The alternative in Texas right now isn’t clear.

Eddie Guardado $2–Which is why I bought one of the best alternatives. Guardado was lights out in September last year. That tells me his arm is okay, though age and history argue against him.

Jamie Walker $3–Another topper, mainly by default. He’s a very good but aging pitcher who is unlikely to get a meaningful role. But I controlled him and I’m not sure of George Sherrill in the closer role. Walker is one alternative, so adding him seemed like a plan, at least.

Is this a winning team? I think it stands a better chance of not winning a championship because I spent too much on Hamilton. But on the other hand, this is a team with strong strengths, plus Josh Hamilton. He could be a plus, despite his price. I hope so.

Industry Top 100 Prospect Analysis

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Project Prospect

Adam Forster looks at the Top 100 Prospect  lists from Baseball America, ESPN, Mound Talk and his own website and compares them, looking for analytical trends. No real conclusions can be drawn, I think you’d have to look at a few years worth of lists to get a fair appraisal of tendencies, but he shines a very bright light on the issues that go into the making of one of these lists.

He’ll share data, too, if you ask.

Tout Wars NL–Rotoman’s Team

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Zoho Sheet – 13_team

These are random notes on the Peter Kreutzer entry in this year’s Tout Wars NL. The idea is to give some context for the picks, why I made the final bid and when, plus any other tidbits along the way.

The big issue in this draft was that prices were generally right on. Only a few players (Chris Snyder, Ty Wigginton, Yunel Escobar, Lastings Milledge) ended up more than a few dollars off my bid prices. So in most cases the bidding quickly got to the area of the price, and then it just depended if two guys wanted to swap bids or not at that point.

Before Tout I make up a list of players I’d like at my prices that add up to the $260 budget, and I try to work from that. In the NL in recent years there are lots of stars but very little depth among hitters. I targetted Troy Tulowitzki and Brandon Phillips and held out some hope to pick up David Wright, though my $41 target was not aggressive.

Wright was nominated first and almost immediately went to $42 and I opted not to go past my budget. I did pick up Tulowitzky for $27 and could have made a bid on Phillips at $30, but I flinched and he went for $29. As I didn’t make that bid it ran through my mind I had him elsewhere, and I didn’t really want to make commitment bets in two leagues on him, though I think he’s no fluke.

On the pitching side I wanted to take many mid-teen potential aces with some level of injury discount. The odd thing is that the first one I bought was Carlos Zambrano. I have injury built into his projection and bid price, which is unusual, yet when I was price enforcing at $20 he became mine. Okay.

Enough prelude, here’s the team in position order.

Catchers: Dave Ross $3 and Eric Munson $2. The good catchers went for decent prices (Martin $26, McCann $18, both to Mike Lombardo, current champ), while the riskier mediocre hitters (Carlos Ruiz $11, Michael Barrett $9) went for too much. Ross and Munson went for too much but at that point I had the cash and the pickins were awfully thin. One hopes for just enough AB to get some positive power numbers.

Corners: Todd Helton $19, Chad Tracy $5, Ian Stewart $1. Helton was a good price early, I thought. Tracy will start the year on the DL, but at that price he can miss some time and I’ll be okay. The collapse of talent at 3B was a problem. Mark Reynolds and Nomar went cheaply ($8 and $4 respectively) but I let them go, and Kouzmanoff ($19) and Wigginton and Yunel Escobar went for a lot, so I let them go.

Middle: Tulowitzky went for his price. I like Miguel Tejada for $19, like I like Helton. Tad Iguchi for $8 is a good price, those his power will be neutralized a bit in that ballpark. Reyes went for $44, Ramirez for $40, and Rollins for $36.

Outfield: Juan Pierre at $16 wasn’t a buy I ever expected to make, but the price is good enough, I needed speed, and we get to keep his stats if he were to end up in the AL. Brad Hawpe at $23 is a fair enough price for another guy I have no shine for. I did like that he was a Rockie. Adam Dunn at $23 is a good price for a big power hitter, especially since I seemed to be compiling a team that didn’t value batting average much. Corey Patterson at $15 is the speed version of Dunn and one hopes that they don’t crash into each other chasing a short pop up. Final outielder, as it were, was Cody Ross, who should end up the regular center fielder in Miami. A regular (or close to it) for $3 can’t be bad, even though Ross isn’t all that good.

Utility: I had $4 and one slot left and it was my turn to nominated. Scott Podsednick has been having a good spring, and like so many of my players is a Rockie. It’s a shot.

Starters: Zambrano is joined by Pedro Martinez ($14) and Ben Sheets ($15), who are both having strong springs. The injury risk is high, which is why I could afford the three of them. If two play most of the season I should be okay. Noah Lowry $1 and Ryan Dempster $1 were crickets. I didn’t expect to get Lowry. He’s hurt and his WHIP may be especially painful coupled with Zambrano’s when he ‘s healthy. Dempster is having an excellent spring adjusting to starting. Final two slots went to Chuck James $3, also hurting but talented and supposedly coming back, and Carlos Villanueva $6, who has been very good the last two years, but has been squeezed this spring, perhaps it turns out all the way to Triple-A because he has an option. But with Capuano’s injury and I hope not Sheets’ he’ll see plenty of time Milwaukee.

Closers: Takashi Saito $22 was at the top end of the top prices for closers, as I had him rated. But I had him for $27, so he seemed like a bargain until all the other closers sold for similar prices. The closer game is kind of like a draft. We each take one really good one, one risky one, and perhaps a CIW. My risky closer is Kerry Wood $10, who has looked good this spring, but like so much of this team, comes with upside and injury potential intertwined.

Reserves: I got Mike Hampton (injury prone, having a nice spring) in the first round, shoring up one of my problem areas. In later rounds I got Yusmiero Petit, having a breakout kind of spring, Jonathan Meloan, in Triple-A but will end up in the bullpen at some point behind Saito, Joe Koshansky, as some overreaching Helton insurance, and Chris Sampson and Victor Diaz, late in the game, just because you can’t too many pitchers or outfielders.

After the draft Corey Schwartz told me that my team finished, based on his projections, in a three way tie for second. There is a lot of work to do, and injuries will be an issue (hopefully a manageable one), but this is the start.

Talking to Brian Bannister

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Baseball Digest Daily :: Voros

I’m a big Brian Bannister fan, because it looks to me like he gets better results out of his stuff than other pitchers do. It turns out he’s a bit of a stathead and knows who Voros is, and can maybe actually even explain DIPS (though he doesn’t in this story).

Now I’m a bigger Brian Bannister fan, and I think maybe he gets better results out of his stuff because he’s thoughtful. That would be so excellent.

2002 Tout Wars Draft

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Ask Rotoman :: Yeah, 2002

I have to admit, I was giddy. I wrote up who I was going to buy and why the night before the 2002 Tout Wars draft, and then submitted commentary later about why things changed.

They changed mostly because Albert Pujols went for $28. We have to adapt.

Still, even with a $28 Pujols my askrotoman.com squad finished fifth, as it had in 2001 and 2000. For some reason revealing who I was going to buy before the auction didn’t get me a better team. It got me a mediocre one.

Revisiting the 2002 draft story reminds me that we inevitably spout all kinds of booshwah because we’re excited and interested and we can. And we know stuff. The future careers of baseball players is in their hands. We get to judge, but they get to gloriously prove us wrong.

Those are the moments we should live for.

Decoding the Depth Charts: White Sox 2B

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This is a tricky one, because a lot has happened in the last couple of days.

What was a Battle Royale (think Pulp Fiction) has suddenly become a Media Noche (think Memories of Underdevelopment). Alexei Ramirez is suddenly catapulted into the White Sox starting job because yesterday the team waived Juan Uribe and today Danny Richar discovered a stress fracture in his ribs. Or is he?

Just so you know, I hadn’t projected (in Patton$onDisk08) Ramirez yet because absent a role and absent context it’s really hard to do any work at all. He’s been a very good player in Cuba and could be a major leaguer, or not. There’s really no way we can know with anything but the certainty that comes from saying that he’s a good athlete, he can hit but his defensive rep is weak, and we’ll see.

I had Richar down for 400 at bats, with three homers and three steals. He was a placeholder, at best, if he ended up getting that playing time. The reason he might have…

Is because Juan Uribe, who can hit a little, also can’t resist swinging. So he makes plenty of outs while occasionally whacking the ball. I had him down for 375 at bats, too many for the two of them combined, but again, each probably with fewer than one of them would have. If one hadn’t been released and the other injured.

So what do we do with Alexei Ramirez? Let’s look at some depth charts.

Rotowire.com has Ramirez as the White Sox starting 2B, with Pablo Ozuna as the backup. Danny Richar? Is out.

BaseballHQ.com gives Ramirez 40 percent of the playing time, with Richar and Uribe splitting the other 60 percent.

Over at sandlotshrink.com they like Richar, but note his injury, backed up by Ramirez.

ESPN.com has Uribe down as the starter, followed by Richar and Ozuna (they have Ramirez as the backup at shortstop behind Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe).

The usual quirky Rototimes.com has Uribe as the starter, Richar as the sub and Ramirez as the sub sub.

Rotoworld.com has Danny Richar alone at second base, with Ramirez listed as the third string center fielder.

Yahoo.com lists Uribe, then Ramirez.

The comprehensive Sportsline.com goes with Uribe, then Ramirez, then Richar, then Ozuna, then out of left field, literally, Jason Bourgeois.

So, how to sum it up? The Richar injury gets the obvious guy to fail out of the way. But does it mean the job is Ramirez’s? Indications are that the waivers on Uribe are revocable, so let’s leave the last word to Ozzie Guillen, who deserves it:

“Why have we not named Uribe the second baseman? I mean, he’s a great spring-training player, then all of a sudden spring training is over and we see a different player. If the season starts tomorrow, who pitches for Cleveland? Sabathia? Well, then the starting second baseman will be Pablo Ozuna. The next day? We’ll see.”

I’ve cut Richar’s projected time in half, left Uribe the same, and given a slight bump to Ozuna, who apparently will play against lefties. Alexei Ramirez? I’m leaving him blank. He may well earn a role this summer, probably as a utility player, but there seem to be too many bodies ahead of him right now to project him for playing time.

If he’s on the White Sox on opening day he’ll be worth a bid in the end game, unless he emerges from the scrum with the job. Then bump him to $6.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Florida Centerfield

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If you saw Cameron Maybin in his cup last year, and in Arizona later in the fall, you would not though he would be ready this summer to play in the major leagues. An awesome physical talent, yes, a ready major leaguer, no. But having traded away Miguel Cabrera, their star, the Marlins have to be inclined to put on display what they reaped.

Right?

Rotowire.com has him ranked No. 1, noting that he’s hit some opposite field homers with a decent average this spring. They have Alejandro De Aza, not a hitter but having a better spring, second, and Cody Ross, not a regular but he can hit, third. Finally, there is Alfredo Amezaga, the speedy supersub who is so far down the depth chart at each position you don’t even think about him. He’s averaged 350 AB the last two years, with a bunch of steals.

MLB.com has them ranked Ross, De Aza, and Maybin, which is why we’re doing this.

Rototimes.com likes Ross, Amezaga, De Aza, and has Maybin in Albuquerque.

Sandlotshrink.com digs ’em Maybin, Ross, De Aza.

Rotoworld.com has Maybin and De Aza and that’s it.

You can count on ESPN.com to get original. After Maybin and De Aza, yawn, they go for Brett Carroll, and then Ross. Carroll is coming off something of a Triple-A breakout season, but he’s old, his BB/K numbers aren’t so good, and, well, isn’t that enough?

BaseballHQ.com has Maybin with 55 percent of the PT, Ross with 30 percent, De Aza at 10 percent, and long lost speedster Eric Reed at 5 percent.

Yahoo.com is all over the Maybin, Ross sequence.

CBS Sportsline.com is kind of dull, with the Maybin, Ross, De Aza start, but then chimes in with Alexis Gomez, a country heretofore unheard from.

Going into this little survey I had Maybin for 299 fairly weak at bats. Lots of strikeouts, but a comforting number of walks and plenty of steals.

I had De Aza for a similar number of AB (297) but no power and no speed and no contact.

I had Cody Ross for a similar number, too, (266) because nobody is the front runner.

Remember, too, that these three aren’t limited to center field. With the injury prone Jeremy Heredia in left field and the ancient Luis Gonzalez in right, there will be blood out there.

Amezaga, who will play everywhere and no where (fish fans hope) gets 380 AB from me, splitting the difference of the past two years. I put Brett Carroll down for 96 AB, and Eric Reed for 194.

Indecision breeds a mess, that’s for sure. In spring training De Aza has 42 PA, Carroll has 38, Maybin has 35, Ross has 38, Gomez has 29 and Eric Reed didn’t make the cut.

I’m going to cut Eric Reed to nothing and leave the rest of them right where they are. My guess is that neither De Aza nor Maybin can hold the job this year, and Ross will end up with the most AB. But with 10 days left it’s better to remember what they cannot do then to underestimate their PT and create the illusion there is something they can do.

My prediction is that Maybin and De Aza each get a quarter of a season to show what they can’t do, and probably Cody Ross gets the most playing time.

PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

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This was in the Baseball Prospectus newsletter, which comes via email every day.

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2008 AL Stolen Base Leaders, by PECOTA Projected SB

Player, Team, SB

Freddy Guzman, TEX, 37
Carl Crawford, TBA, 35
Brian Roberts, BAL, 35
Chone Figgins, LAA, 33
Bradley Coon, LAA, 33

What you’ve got to like about PECOTA is that it finds stuff. Bradley Coon was a 25 year old in Double-A last year who stole 24 bases in 36 attempts. The Angels’ outfield is already crowded, as is their infield. This slap-hitting oldie with moderate speed seems an unlikely guy to see any major league playing time.

Freddy Guzman is no longer with the Rangers. He was copped in the Rule 5 draft last December and is hoping to snag the job as Curtis Granderson’s backup this summer in Detroit. He’s a real burner whose only problems are that he’s had a hard time making it to the majors, and hasn’t hit in his two brief trials. He’s got a decent eye but no power, so his game rests on his ability to steal first and then second.

The odds of either Guzman or Coons ending up in the Top 5 in the AL at this point are laughable, which is why I like BP’s picks. If they alert you to a player with potential who is for some reason off the radar, they’ve done their job.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Rangers Closer

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There are a number of tenuous bullpen situations this spring, but entering the last two weeks of camp none is more unsettled than the closer order in Texas. For the record, I have CJ Wilson projected for 7 saves, Eddie Guardado with 14, Joaquin Benoit with 10 and Kazuo Fukumori with 3. This is major ass covering that probably makes things seem more clear cut than they are. Let’s see how the other see it.

Yahoo.com says Wilson, Benoit, Guardado, Fukumori.

MLB.com has Guardado and Wilson as co-closers, backed up by Benoit. Fukumori ranks down their list.

Rototimes.com has Guardado and Wilson as co-closers, with Benoit and Frank Francisco as setup guys. Fukumori isn’t listed.

Rotoworld.com has them listed Wilson, Fukumori, Benoit, Guardado.

SandlotShrink.com has Wilson listed as the closer, and Guardado, Benoit and Fukumori as the setup guys.

BaseballHQ.com gives Wilson 70 percent of the saves, Guardado and Benoit 10 percent each and Fukumori five percent. The remaining five percent is out there, waiting.

Rotowire.com reports that CJ Wilson, who has been hurting this spring, is healthy, while Eddie Guardado’s bum knee didn’t help him make his case to be closer when Wilson was down. Still, they’re listed as co-closers. Benoit is the setup guy, though he’s been hurt this spring, too, with Fukumori behind him.

Sportsline.com has them listed as Wilson, Benoit, Guardado, and Fukumori.

All of which tells us that Wilson is probably the closer if his arm is okay (he was hurting with biceps tendinitis), and it’s anyone’s guess who will take his place if he can’t go (or if he fails, which I think his walk rate last year suggests could happen).

Guardado’s numbers last year don’t look so hot, but most of the damage came around his DL time. He finished strong and while that earn him a ringing endorsement because of his age and the wear and tear he’s endured, he’s got more potential than you might think. I like Benoit but he’s not going to move ahead of the other two unless they go down. And Fukumori is the wild card. A successful closer in Japan, he’s got the head for the job.

The mistake here wouldn’t be taking any few of these guys, but paying more for them combined than you would for the Texas closer. If it looks like Wilson’s the one he’s likely to go for closer money. Backing him up with the other guys, who will all have value in 4×4 leagues, will probably each cost you a little premium because of the chance that they’ll end up in the closer’s seat. And you’ll end up paying too much for the Texas closer and some setup guys.

But for cheap? Get on ’em all. You just might win the lottery.