MLB

The Official Matsuzaka Prediction Thread

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BBTF’s Newsblog Discussion

Somebody will average these all out, dropping the guy who’s predicting 29 wins (and a 1-0 loss on the last day of the season). I remember that last year around this time we were having similar discussions about Johjima (except we weren’t sure if his last name had an “h” or not). I’ve been working on an updated set of predictions for all players (not just positively valued ones) for a game mlb.com is putting out, and discovered a little too late that I didn’t have a Dice-K projection (he was far from signed when the magazine went to bed). So, here it is:

200 IP, 3.74 ERA, 17 wins, 9 losses, 55 walks, 180 strikeouts, 23 homers, 1.21 WHIP.

That’s a tweener, probably worth about $25 in an AL only league. I think he could be much better, but injury risk and the real chance that he’s not going to dominate would cause me not to chase him. I have him in the magazine at $14, but now that he’s signed and the adrenaline is flowing I’d go to $18 probably. Depending on what we see in spring training.

Funny money

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SI.com

This story correctly points out that the Tribune company is putting lipstick on a pig before selling it (not just the Cubbies, but the whole shootin’ match), but fails to note the tax advantages that accrue to new franchise owners. In short (and I’m not accountant, so don’t expect too many details), for the first five years after buying a team new owners can depreciate the expense of salaries, which amounts to a substantial tax break.

Which is why so many owners get into baseball, last five years, and then start complaining about all the money they’re losing and move on.

Is a Cubs title in the cards?

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Jeff Passan – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

I guess I should make Jeff Passan a category. He’s consistently right about things, writes well and is sometimes, like in this comic look at recent Cubs’ history, very funny.

I’m not sure what to make of Soriano moving to center field. After the initial reluctance he seemed to adjust to left field. He’s fast enough to chase stuff down out there, so I suspect it could work (with some miscues).

As for the money, it’s funny. None of it makes any rational sense. Maybe the Cubs got better this week, maybe not, but at least the scratch is going to the performers.

Padres Deal Barfield!

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Padres trade 2B Barfield to Indians for two prospects – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

At Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Arizona Forum over the weekend, Blue Jays scout Kimball Crossley and Baseball HQ prospect analyst Deric McCammy looked at videos of Arizona Fall League players and analyzed their mechanics and predicted their futures.

Crossley said he never looked at video and was a little put off watching from the side angle (first base) rather than behind the plate, but that didn’t keep him and McCammey from gushing over Kevin Kouzmanoff. Both analysts like his swing, like his power, like his body and like his makeup, which is enough for me to say that maybe the Padres didn’t get taken in this trade.

Neither analyst thought Kouzmanoff would be a star, and while Barfield probably isn’t going to be one of the elite either, he’s a top notch defender at a middle position who has proven he can handle big league pitching.

No knock on Kouzmanoff, really. Seeing him play in person, well actually seeing him hit in person, makes you believe that he will hit. But he’s a slow runner who will be average at best in the field. And he’s older than Barfield.

The Padres got a pitcher, too. Andrew Brown is out of options. This is the third time he’s been dealt for a big league hitter. The first two were Gary Sheffield and Milton Bradley. He may well end up having a big league career but at this point that’s all.

Tigers dazed and confused – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

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Tigers dazed and confused – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

I’ve spent enough time praising Jeff Passan this year that he should have his own category, but not yet.

This analysis of the Tigers’ woes makes for nice theater (read: column) but ignores the reality. There is no hope of really measuring a team’s abilities (and disabilities) in a seven-game series.

That fact makes it hard for baseball writers who have to maintain the pretext of, um, what may we can best call “inevitability.” But as sports consumers we shouldn’t buy into the drama they have to create to do their jobs. Not that it isn’t entertaining, and even sometimes meaningful, but because the purveyors of this news make it hard to tell the difference.

Time for Heads to Roll?

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Baseball Musings

When I started reading this David Pinto post I started getting irked by his blunt attack on Ricciardi, accompanied by some good but not-climactic quotes.

But the real point here is his extension of Bill James’s idea of Families of Managers, from James’ excellent book “Baseball Managers” (who came up with that title?), and a rather potent idea that Joe Torre (the 2nd act) is the father of a Third Way of managing.

There has been much to criticize Torre for the last few years, but his approach has been direct and consistent, which is what gives Pinto’s idea legs. History will tell us more about Willie Randolph and Joe Girardi as managers than we know now, but their success this year makes Pinto’s thesis well worth discussing.

When fantasy meets reality

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Yahoo! Sports

Jeff Passan hits with another tear jerker, though this one is really only happy news and a fun read for fantasy fans. Even before I started playing roto one of my stated goals in life was to some day own a big league team. That seemed the only way to get into the business. But then, as now, it turned out that there are other paths, as my friends Keith Law, Tony Blengino and Ron Shandler have demonstrated. For me, ownership is still probably the best route, but you might find another way. If you’re interested.

Judge: Fantasy leagues allowed to use MLB player names, stats – MLB – Yahoo! Sports

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MLB – Yahoo! Sports

My opinion is that this will was the rational conclusion, and it will also prove to be the best one for the fantasy sports business and the leagues, too. MLB has plenty to sell beyond the stats and names, and they will benefit because the grass roots development of leagues and games won’t be squelched before they start.