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I didn’t blog last week’s Ask Rotoman because I was on vacation and, well, it slipped by. This week I evaluate some underperforming pitchers, reconsider Robinson Cano, and discover a reader for whom one question isn’t nearly as good as five. I hope you enjoy.
I took note of this little chart in part because Mike Bacsik was noted the other day as a guy who had held Barry Bonds to 1-15 in his career (the 1 was a dinger). Looking at the chart I got to thinking about the difference between the two extremes of balls put into play. 27 percent seems like a lot, but when hitters can be expected to hit about .300 on balls in play, it amounts to nine extra hits per 100 batters faced (or roughly about two and a half per game).
That could be a lot. The difference between a 1.2 WHIP and a 1.4 WHIP reflects those 2.5 hits. The issue here, as we so often see, is really baserunners allowed. If you don’t walk many the extra hits you allow pitching to contact aren’t a problem, just as the hits you don’t allow by not pitching to contact don’t help much if you give up a lot of walks.
The other issue is the type of ball put in play. Some pitchers do better than others controlling line drives (which almost always result in a hit). As we accumulate data about all these things we may well get a better idea of what works best, but I suspect that pitchers like Mike Bacsik, who simply get things done, will still find work.
Nothing succeeds like success. (In Bacsik’s case, recently.)
Trade No. 3: Carl Crawford for Juan PierreOne gets tons of love and one gets no respect, but over the second half of the year, Juan Pierre is going to be the better fantasy player. I’m sorry. Continue to be the better fantasy player. You saw me mention Pierre briefly in last week’s newsletter but let’s put those numbers into even more of a perspective.
From June 1 through July 22:
Juan Pierre: 27 R, 24 SB, 0 HR, 12 RBI, .335 average
Carl Crawford: 32 R, 19 SB, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .278 averageThe power is better for Crawford, but it’s not significant in the grand scheme of things and that’s not why you have either guy. Otherwise, they are basically the same, with Pierre hitting over 50 points higher. You could get Pierre plus something else for your Carl Crawford and not suffer any drop-off at all. Again, we play with numbers, not names.
The words above are Matt Berry’s. Matt is a friend of mine. He was an annual contributor to the Guide until some scum sucking international conglomerate with the face of Mickey Mouse bought him off. Good for him. Weezil.
Or is that weasel?
The point here is that in his weekly newsletter to ESPN fantasy players he actually suggests taking Juan Pierre over Carl Crawford for the last two months of the season. And he does this without mentioning that Crawford is hurt.
But nobody knows how hurt Crawford is. He won the Devil Rays game today with a homer. His MRI was good enough. If Crawford misses significant time in the last two months because of injury then Pierre is certainly the better choice. And that could happen.
But when we’re considering names versus stats, Crawford is a star, Pierre is a role player. Unless you know something, the right answer is go with the star.
PS. Matt’s other example, going for Brandon Phillips over Derek Jeter, is similar. But closer. Phillips is a potential star aborning, so casting aside Jeter isn’t ridiculous, though it may not work out. For now, Phillips is the hot hand, Jeter the very steady one.
Depending on your situation, you can decide.
The transaction deadline in Tout Wars is 5pm on Friday. The idea is to give players looking at Monday deadlines an idea of what the pros have done. And to give Nando DiFino material for his engaging ESPN.com column, Playing with the Pros.
How to determine when transactions have been made is an eternal struggle for fantasy leagues. In this case, the Phillies’ press release (linked here) is timed at 4:51 pm on Friday, nine minutes before the transaction deadline. Not one of the pros bid on Iguchi except for Major League Baseball Advanced Media employee Cory Schwartz. So, given our Vickery bidding system, his $22 bid on Iguchi becomes an uncontested $1 bid. Kudos to Cory.
If the Phillies’ press release was actually posted at 4:51, I doubt that the actual transaction was reported on the mlb.com or espn.com transaction lists, which we have used as the standard in the American Dream League. As Swatman of that league I check what’s on those two sites at noon each claims Monday and only players listed are eligible to be claimed.
But now I wonder if timestamped press releases on team’s individual sites should count? As long as the timestamp and the actual claim beat the deadline, I don’t see why not.
I may well have recommended this site at some point, maybe even recently, but while reading it this morning I was reminded again what a great idea it was to collect all the trade rumors in one place. In part the idea works because Tim is a witty writer who does a nice job laying out the various discussions, chattering and possibilities. As we approach the July 31 trading deadline teams hoping not to be hurt by ML deals, and teams in the first waiver position hoping to be helped can stoke the fires all day (and night) long at this site.
Excellent if rambling post about Chris Carpenter—who I suggest might be back this year in this week’s column, filed mere hours before the bad news surfaced—and Tony La Russa, who has been a bit grumpy.
Clay Davenport and Will Carroll put together translated season-by-season home run stats for all of modern baseball history and demonstrate that Babe Ruth really was the greatest. There is a nice twist, however, one that seems very satisfying at first, but the explanation about how it came about makes me want to learn more about the project before throwing all my support behind it.
But even if you shouldn’t say this stands as decisive evidence, it sure feels right.
Guide contributor and Asian baseball specialist Tim McLeod does a nice job surveying the Japanese players in the US thus far this season. I’m curious how the gaijin are faring in Japan this year, Tim, if you need an idea for a followup.
The Royals’ offense is getting better. That’s what this chart says. If we believe the still relatively new management has a chance to get it right, this is a reason to hope that in the future the Royals will suck less.
More importantly, it’s a reason not to assume that the Royals will lie down when facing your pitchers. Right now this isn’t a bad offense.
A while back I posted about a Joe Sheehan story that delved into the pitch by pitch data that MLB is making available. Here’s another story, by HT’s John Walsh, looking behind the news using those numbers. I’m still not sure what to make of it, his discussion about potential errors is very important, but nonetheless the potential for all this data to open up vast new areas of understanding about the game is obvious.