Answers to fantasy baseball questions (and much more) since 1996
Sean Forman has got a draft of minor league history up since 1992. As usual the pages are elegant and easy to digest, and fast. Kudos, even though this noble second step indicates just how much more work there is to be done.
(No knock intended to thebaseballcube.com, which was the first step.)
Rick Paulus has been writing about fantasy baseball writing for a few years now in McSweeney’s, and he’s pretty funny. Especially so in this Super Scouting Report of Excessive Keeper Leagues. I’ve already signed URF, so don’t bother.
 bpr_070807_1.mp3 (audio/mpeg Object)
Mark Silva makes Barry Bonds’ elbow brace, which I guess a writer earlier today claimed gave Bonds a huge advantage when it comes to standing close to the plate (which makes some sense to me) and other physical advantages that Silva emphatically refutes.
That’s interesting, but the reason to listen to this mp3 is because Silva perhaps best knows about the size and definition of the muscles in Bonds’ arm, since he measures them every year. If steroids and other performance enhancing drugs are meant to build muscle mass, where’s the beef?
Excellent work, Will.
Trade No. 3: Carl Crawford for Juan PierreOne gets tons of love and one gets no respect, but over the second half of the year, Juan Pierre is going to be the better fantasy player. I’m sorry. Continue to be the better fantasy player. You saw me mention Pierre briefly in last week’s newsletter but let’s put those numbers into even more of a perspective.
From June 1 through July 22:
Juan Pierre: 27 R, 24 SB, 0 HR, 12 RBI, .335 average
Carl Crawford: 32 R, 19 SB, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .278 averageThe power is better for Crawford, but it’s not significant in the grand scheme of things and that’s not why you have either guy. Otherwise, they are basically the same, with Pierre hitting over 50 points higher. You could get Pierre plus something else for your Carl Crawford and not suffer any drop-off at all. Again, we play with numbers, not names.
The words above are Matt Berry’s. Matt is a friend of mine. He was an annual contributor to the Guide until some scum sucking international conglomerate with the face of Mickey Mouse bought him off. Good for him. Weezil.
Or is that weasel?
The point here is that in his weekly newsletter to ESPN fantasy players he actually suggests taking Juan Pierre over Carl Crawford for the last two months of the season. And he does this without mentioning that Crawford is hurt.
But nobody knows how hurt Crawford is. He won the Devil Rays game today with a homer. His MRI was good enough. If Crawford misses significant time in the last two months because of injury then Pierre is certainly the better choice. And that could happen.
But when we’re considering names versus stats, Crawford is a star, Pierre is a role player. Unless you know something, the right answer is go with the star.
PS. Matt’s other example, going for Brandon Phillips over Derek Jeter, is similar. But closer. Phillips is a potential star aborning, so casting aside Jeter isn’t ridiculous, though it may not work out. For now, Phillips is the hot hand, Jeter the very steady one.
Depending on your situation, you can decide.
The transaction deadline in Tout Wars is 5pm on Friday. The idea is to give players looking at Monday deadlines an idea of what the pros have done. And to give Nando DiFino material for his engaging ESPN.com column, Playing with the Pros.
How to determine when transactions have been made is an eternal struggle for fantasy leagues. In this case, the Phillies’ press release (linked here) is timed at 4:51 pm on Friday, nine minutes before the transaction deadline. Not one of the pros bid on Iguchi except for Major League Baseball Advanced Media employee Cory Schwartz. So, given our Vickery bidding system, his $22 bid on Iguchi becomes an uncontested $1 bid. Kudos to Cory.
If the Phillies’ press release was actually posted at 4:51, I doubt that the actual transaction was reported on the mlb.com or espn.com transaction lists, which we have used as the standard in the American Dream League. As Swatman of that league I check what’s on those two sites at noon each claims Monday and only players listed are eligible to be claimed.
But now I wonder if timestamped press releases on team’s individual sites should count? As long as the timestamp and the actual claim beat the deadline, I don’t see why not.
The shocking thing about the Rotowire redesign is that good looking can be so disorienting.
The site now looks somewhat organized, which is a plus, though in my 10 minutes visiting the new site I can’t say I’m happy with it. None of us, I think, change easily. I’m sure this will pass.
The other shocking thing is that forefront in the new design are Rotowire’s articles and newswire news. Secondary are the individual player updates that are the main reason I visit the site.
This so flies in the face of my experience, I want news updates long before I want news analysis, I fear this is a terrible mistake. But both RotoTimes and RotoWorld have made similar adjustments, so I may be in the minority. No matter what I think, in the new Rotowire design authorial voice and analysis wins.
Curious.
I may well have recommended this site at some point, maybe even recently, but while reading it this morning I was reminded again what a great idea it was to collect all the trade rumors in one place. In part the idea works because Tim is a witty writer who does a nice job laying out the various discussions, chattering and possibilities. As we approach the July 31 trading deadline teams hoping not to be hurt by ML deals, and teams in the first waiver position hoping to be helped can stoke the fires all day (and night) long at this site.
The Official Site of Major League Baseball
If pressed should teams rely on pitching, or cling to hitting? I think the answer (pitching) is clear. Especially if you can sing for Santana, Dump Carpenter (this post comes after the story was written), and stand by Brad Penny. At least until he fades.
Good luck into the second half.
Guide contributor and Asian baseball specialist Tim McLeod does a nice job surveying the Japanese players in the US thus far this season. I’m curious how the gaijin are faring in Japan this year, Tim, if you need an idea for a followup.
I met Jeff Barton, who invented and runs Scoresheet Baseball with his brother, out in Arizona last November at Ron Shandler’s shindig at the AFL. Jeff invited some of us to play in a Scoresheet league this year. Over the years the most vocal proponents of a fantasy game that is not Rotisserie have certainly been Scoresheet players, who love the game for the way it reflects the shape of real baseball games and the shape of the real baseball season. So I said yes.
I’m a newbie, my team isn’t so hot and, to be honest, I don’t have the time to soak up all the information I need to help me play this game better. But I can see the appeal. Each week you get actual box scores from simulated games based on the preceding week’s actual stats. It’s a deft mixture of roto and sim baseball played nearly in real time, and it only hurts when your Johan Santana is edged by Brian Bannister. But such things do happen.
I bring all this up because in this week’s Scoresheet newsletter Jeff lists the players who turn up most on winning and losing teams. This is a great way to measure a player’s actual impact on the standings. As you can see, the differences aren’t huge. Jermaine Dye is a disappointment, but he can’t single-handedly wreck teams. Perhaps you’ll find some names here that will help explain your season thus far:
(And don’t forget to check out Scoresheet Baseball.)
This week we’ve printed a short list of ‘Scoresheet All-Stars’
and ‘Scoresheet All-Worsts’. We took all of the players in the
majors, and totaled the won-loss records for all of the teams that
they are on in Scoresheet, then divided by the number of teams they
play on to come up with their ‘average Scoresheet won-loss record.’
Most pennant races are decided by just a couple of games, so if a
single player makes the difference in 3 or 4 games that is a big deal.This list is not just an order of the players who are having the
best (and worst) seasons, but more shows players who are playing
much better or worse than what they ‘cost’ (how high the draft pick
used to get them, or what they cost in trade).
*Note A guy like Matt Albers (who probably was not even picked
in many pre-season drafts) may show on a league’s ‘Worst’ list
because he was not picked until the mid-season supplemental draft
in many leagues. Those drafts go in the reverse order of won-loss
records, and since Buchholz was a top supplemental pick in many
leagues, Buchholz did end up getting picked by a lot of teams that
already had a losing record when they got him.Have a great week! – Jeff Barton
AL Bests
4468-3596, 35-28 Danny Haren
4347-3717, 34-29 John Lackey
4345-3718, 34-29 Alex Rodriguez
4340-3723, 34-29 Kelvim Escobar
4339-3724, 34-29 Carlos Guillen
4334-3730, 34-29 Grady Sizemore
4332-3730, 34-29 Victor Martinez
4312-3751, 34-29 J.J. Putz
4310-3753, 34-29 James Shields
4293-3769, 34-29 Johan Santana
4289-3775, 34-29 Pat Neshek
4287-3776, 33-30 Alexis Rios
4255-3746, 34-29 Magglio Ordonez
4190-3685, 34-29 Matt Guerrier
4266-3798, 33-30 Joe Nathan
4263-3800, 33-30 Justin Verlander
4230-3771, 33-30 Hideki Okajima
4252-3811, 33-30 C.C. Sabathia
3084-2649, 34-29 C.J. WilsonAL Worsts
3687-4375, 29-34 Joe Crede
3798-4265, 30-33 Brandon McCarthy
3790-4211, 30-33 Jake Westbrook
3832-4231, 30-33 Jermaine Dye
3838-4226, 30-33 Vicente Padilla
3209-3595, 30-33 Doug Mientkiewicz
3842-4221, 30-33 Jorge Cantu
3593-3967, 30-33 Casey Fossum
3789-4147, 30-33 Sammy Sosa
3853-4210, 30-33 Chone Figgins
3821-4178, 30-33 Jason Kendall
3829-4171, 30-33 Mark Grudzielanek
3797-4139, 30-33 Mike Maroth
3861-4203, 30-33 Kevin Millwood
3737-4075, 30-33 Scott Podsednik
3867-4195, 30-33 Josh BarfieldNL Bests
5456-4622, 34-29 Jake Peavy
5403-4676, 34-29 Brad Penny
5374-4706, 34-29 John Smoltz
5372-4710, 34-29 Chase Utley
5299-4719, 33-30 Todd Helton
5312-4767, 33-30 Jose Reyes(NYN)
5281-4739, 33-30 Chris Young(SD)
5275-4744, 33-30 Derrek Lee
5253-4764, 33-30 Chipper Jones
5248-4769, 33-30 Edgar Renteria
5210-4742, 33-30 Tim Hudson
4722-4288, 33-30 Sergio Mitre
5191-4761, 33-30 John Maine
5247-4834, 33-30 Roy Oswalt
5245-4835, 33-30 David Wright
5212-4805, 33-30 Scott Linebrink
5239-4837, 33-30 Albert Pujols
5204-4812, 33-30 Matt Holliday
5225-4853, 33-30 Russell Martin
5190-4827, 33-30 Matt Morris
5217-4864, 33-30 Miguel CabreraNL Worsts
4781-5298, 30-33 Adam LaRoche
4862-5219, 30-33 Taylor Tankersley
4110-4458, 30-33 Jose Castillo
4867-5213, 30-33 Josh Johnson(Flo)
4808-5146, 30-33 Bronson Arroyo
4211-4546, 30-33 Matt Albers
4780-5111, 30-33 John Patterson
4816-5138, 30-33 Anthony Reyes
4849-5167, 30-32 Juan Pierre
4823-5132, 31-32 Clay Hensley
4634-4942, 30-33 Mark Mulder
4162-4469, 30-33 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
4866-5152, 31-32 Freddy Garcia
4867-5150, 31-32 Brian Giles
4841-5112, 31-32 Dan Wheeler