Fantasy Sites

Games played streak ends after Matsui breaks wrist

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ESPN.com – MLB

One of the reasons I went after Hideki Matsui this year in the American Dream League (AL only) is because he’s been so consistent. Reliable. No more. Which got me thinking about a couple of attempts to gauge reliability that have surfaced in recent years.

One of these is Sig Mejdal’s Injury Projections. Mejdal list percentages of chance for players to get hurt. His Top 10 Hitters Most Likely to Get Hurt (published last November) was: Griffey (just getting off DL), Jordan (not yet), Cliff Floyd (playing like it), Gary Sheffield (on DL), Rondell White (playing like it), Sammy Sosa (retired), Reggie Sanders (gets off DL tomorrow), Jose Valentin (29 AB so far), Alomar Jr (back spasms and shoulder pain because he could’t play every fifth day), Geoff Jenkins (okay so far).

On the pitching side: Kerry Wood (like fish in a barrel), Orlando Hernandez (DL), Wade Miller (DL), Carl Pavano (DL), Jaret Wright (only 16 IP so far), Oscar Villareal (healthy), Randy Wolf (DL, out for season), Matt Mantei (DL), Rudy Seanez (ineffective, but pitching), Brad Penny (sharp).

That’s a lot of hits so far, but I’m not sure how useful that is.

Ron Shandler gave Matsui an 88 reliability score, on a scale of 100, reflecting his consistent performance and health over the past three years. Ken Griffey, on the other hand, scored a 7. Nomar? 22. All will have spent time on the DL this spring.

Introducing Heater Magazine

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Heater Magazine – Home

John Hunt, who should need no introduction, Deric McKamey, the minor league expert at BaseballHQ.com, and Dave Studeman, of HardballTimes.com, have joined Graphical Pitcher author John Burnson to create Heater, an online magazine about baseball. While in the first issue Hunt and Studeman write fine “early season roto” columns, the heart of the Heater are the 30 pages of team statistical profiles and charts, and the umpteen more pages of position breakouts (as well as a page tracking minor leaguers).

Heater will be coming out each week, and for the fantasy player or the hard core baseball fan the wealth of charts, graphs, timelines and other details about this week, last week and next week, as well as a whole lot more stuff (I’m really just scratching the surface) is organized in an exacting and pleasing way. It’s like the back stats pages of Sports Weekly were totally rethought and reorganized to actually present the data in a way that made it easy to find trends and nuggets about players and teams. Radical.
In a word, all of it is useful, all of it is easy to understand, none of it is presented anywhere else in so fine and complete a manner. Don’t take my word for it. There is a sample copy at the link above. You’ll then have to decide if your money is well spent for this sort of thing. I’m hoping it is, because as long as they keep putting this stuff out my job is going to be a lot easier (and I’m going to look a lot smarter).

Tout Wars – Battle of the So-Called Experts

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Tout Wars – Battle of the Experts

Tout Wars is big this year, in large part because of Sam Walker’s book Fantasyland. Sam’s outsider caricatures of his Tout Wars opponents seemed to ruffle some feathers, but these birds all liked the attention, which is why the draft was held in a conference room at a Times Square hotel, a huge step away from the year we drafted in Steve Moyer’s baseball shrine of a basement in Pennsylvania.
I drafted in the NL section Sunday, along with reps from Creative Sports, Mock Draft Central, Wise Guy Baseball, TQ Stats, Ultimate Fantasy Sports, Roto Junkie, RotoTimes, FantasyGuru, RotoWorld, BaseballHQ, Rotowire, and Fantasybaseball.com.

The only interesting thing that happened, as far as I’m concerned, is that I spent $11 on Colorado minor league DL candidate Ryan Shealy. This was one of those auction moments. I blame the NL. It’s really a sucky league. I kept not bidding on such talents as Jose Cruz and Jacque Jones beyond their projected value because, well, I really didn’t want those guys.

But there is such pervasive mediocrity in the NL that once you get beyond the top couple of stars at each position, it’s a wide sargasso sea of interchangeable pieces, some of whom are bound to pay off—but how can you tell?

You can’t. The teams that went Stars and Scrubs have an advantage, I think.

You can follow the link to see what we did. But back to Shealy. At the moment Shealy was nominated (by me) Lombardo, Zaleski and I had far more money than any of the other teams, and there wasn’t much talent left. I decided that Shealy, even if he only played a few months, was by far the most differentiated and valuable player. So, I went and got him. I was appalled that Lombardo kept raising me, but at that point in the draft it seemed like the time to commit, or end up with money at the end.
I subsequently got all the players I targetted, so from a strategic point of view I did the right thing. But I’m not sure my judgment that Shealy was the guy I wanted/needed was sound.

Auction is a great way to play this game because it opens up all these various pathways to success and failure. I look at the teams and I think the teams that went Stars and Scrubs (notably John Hoyos’s RotoJunkie squad and Jason Pliml’s Mock Draft Central) did best. That’s because the NL is so devoid of talent.

But if Shealy’s shoulder heals and he gets 350 AB in the OF, or if Helton’s back crumbles and he gets plenty of AB at 1B, I’m not surrendering.

(This story is a warning that expert league drafts are good fun to follow, and may give you an idea of what might happen in your league, but the exigencies of the situation are way more important than anything as pedestrian as projected values. Which is how Hector Luna ended up going for $8. But that’s the same story, just a different verse.)

Baseball Prospectus

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I was just the other day wondering why Kevin Goldstein had stopped writing the minor league player daily email for Baseball America (and how I noticed because it wasn’t quite so charming), and I didn’t notice until today that he’s been writing for Baseball Prospectus. It turns out he’s going to be writing 4-5 times a week for them. This is disturbing because his stuff is good, but I had pretty much decided not to renew BP (which they tell me expires in two days).

In today’s story he looked back at the Top 30 prospect lists from 2001 in BA and evaluated how many of the 900 included made the bigs and in what capacity. This isn’t a groundbreaking bit of news, but it’s an average of eight, most of the them not regulars. Goldstein, as usual, is judicious in his judgments and fair in his pronouncements.

I’ve been finding BP less than essential, but not worthless. Worth the dough they’re charging (I don’t know what that is)? We’ll see.

The Thomas George–Dollar Value Calculator

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Fantasy Baseball – Dollar Value Calculator

With the Rototimes.com dollar value calculator skulking into the site’s pay section, hidden away like the Rotowire price calculator, an old standby moves on. The Thomas George is a venerable roto site with its own free calculator. It allocates percentages to hitters by percentage, which is not right unless you play in a league that auctions position by position, but a quick runthrough found it to be usefully accurate nonetheless. Maybe you can hack the percentages so that they treat all production equally.