Blogs – Page 8 – Ask Rotoman

Rays of Light!

July 4, 2008July 2, 2008 by peter

On this day, a couple of days past midseason, Nate Silver talks about how PECOTA only projected the Rays to win 88-90 games this year, an audacious projection that now seems a little lily livered. That’s how good the Rays have been.

My goal here is to shout out about Nate’s analysis, which is excellent, but I have another objective. In Joe Sheehan’s column today he also takes on the Rays. Tucked behind the BP pay wall I can only guess at his overall point, but the tease is apologetic for not getting the Rays analysis right in the preseason.

But, and maybe Joe is being coy here, it was his analysis of the deal for Garza and Bartlett (oh so many months ago) that turned me on to what seemed like the key preseason Rays story. This was a defense that was moving from crap to good, and there would be some pitchers who would benefit. Based on that analysis, of Sheehan’s, Â I made a bet on Edwin Jackson, a post-hype starter who finished fairly strongly last year, but whose historical ineptitude made him a $2 pickup in the endgame.

There is a ton we don’t know about defense and how it helps and hurts teams, but when a team like the Rays moves from the bottom of the defensive efficiency ratings to the top, and at the same time dramatically reduces the number of runs it allows, it may be time to say that we at least know what works.

Without shorting the shrift of the excellent Nate Silver, I think this defensive shift has been Sheehan’s baby the last few years (at least) and he deserves a lot of credit for seeing what was happening.

Thou Shalt Not “Suck My Ass”

June 2, 2008 by peter

Yanksfan Soxfan

Astounding bit of research uncovered by this blog. A commenter says “best post ever” and I find it hard to disagree. Well, maybe by degree. But then I remember the first time I heard someone say “suck my ass,” which profoundly changed me. Best post ever!

Pat Jordan on the trouble with sports journalism.

June 7, 2008May 23, 2008 by peter

By Pat Jordan – Slate Magazine What isn’t clear to me is how we could ever return to those halcyon days when athletes were too dumb and powerless to protect their interests? I also question whether the change Jordan describes is because things have really changed, or is it that when Jordan met Catfish Hunter by the pool he had far more status and represented the preeminent sports magazine of the day (that would be Sports Illustrated). When Jordan called Beckett recently he represented the NY Times Magazine, not really a sports magazine, and he himself is now an older freelance sportswriter, not from Mr. Luce’s empire. In other words, if Rick Reilly (who recently jumped from SI to the ESPN family of sports outlets, as Brent Mussberger described him today during the Belmont Stakes show) wanted to profile Beckett would Josh be as reticent? And might he go through with it anyway, even if he was? Nonetheless, a fun story from a thoughtful baseball writer. Maybe the only former baseball player who is a better writer than Doug Glanville, but I’m being glib.

[This post was rewritten some on June 7th, because I had some better ideas and because the initial presentation was crap. Sorry about that. I hope this helps.]

Buzz Bissinger Will Abuse You Into Civility

May 4, 2008May 2, 2008 by peter

Serious Business: Gawker reefers a Bob Costas joint. Will “Deadspin” Leitch does a great job of explaining why the blogosphere is different than the mainstream media, and why both need to exist, but Bob and Buzz and (to a lesser extent) Braylon aren’t really listening. Will is brilliant, we all know, but the issue here is really about what’s news and why it matters. And he makes the far better argument than the workaday Buzz and the hyperprivileged Bob. That they seem to see him as some sort of sports journalism Al Queda is entrancing. Which is why I ended up watching all of the 18:00 minute clip, despite the curse words by the mainstream guys. That’s not newspaper talk.

How Did A-Rod Get So Good?

April 7, 2008 by peter

Freakonomics – Opinion – New York Times Blog

You have to read the Tyler Kepner story linked to within to get the whole story, but Dubner is right to point out Bobby Meacham’s quote. Learning to do something better than everybody, everything I’ve read says, is the result of practice, practice, smart coaching and more practice.

I didn’t work hard enough at the piano, to mention one thing.

Willie Mays Nude:

March 21, 2008 by peter

Deadspin

Supposedly the only photo of Willie Mays’ willie is for sale on eBay, and Deadspin has the story. The seller has placed a Giants logo over the sensitive area, perhaps a bit of subliminal seduction. Thanks, baseballmusings.com.

The 3 Stages of Rotisserie Grief

March 7, 2008 by peter

BBTF’s Primate Studies Discussion :: Eugene Freedman

It sounds like this is Eugene’s first fantasy baseball article. He does a good job of explaining Patton’s roto stages and teases his next story, but things really take off when the discussion starts. There are no answers here, but it’s good to hear the chatter.

One suggestion: Do what you like. I’ve never played in a league with holds. Changing BA to OBP is the best move any league can make.

Changes in home run rates during the Retrosheet years

March 3, 2008February 15, 2008 by peter

The Hardball Times

Tom Tango methodically and revealingly demonstrates, using information gleaned from Retrosheet and MLB’s ball-testing lab, that there is real evidence that the home run boom that began in 1993 was a product of a juiced ball. Don’t believe me? Read the story.

Which isn’t to say that this is the final word. Tom’s data relates to balls put into play as they relate to home run rate, which is the best way to figure out the effect of hitting the ball farther, but not so good for determining changes that might stem from the umpires’ calling of the strike zone (in which case the ball might be hit less often).

Plus, I find it hard to believe that given the potency of Mile High in Denver, that the control group of players had a similar increase in home runs to those who didn’t play in Colorado. That’s something to think about while reading Tom’s story.

David Pinto, of baseballmusings.com, says that manufacturing standards tightened up for the ball manufacturers in 1993, and that balls were tested more often. His theory is that the manufacturers established a more tightly wound ball (but still within the official specs) as the de facto standard. Unlike times past, when the equipment would slide and the balls would loosen up and a range of tightnesses were created, the modern ball is uniform and tightly wound.

In no way does this argument rule out the possibility that other factors played a part in the recent power boom (Tom doesn’t publish the numbers after 1998 for one thing), but it does establish that only modest changes to the ball could readily explain much if not all of the changes. That’s worth remembering when it is tempting to overreact.