Ask Rotoman

Who has more value in a standard ESPN keeper league this year and possibly for years beyond, David Peralta as an 11th rounder or Steven Souza as a 19th rounder? Thanks

“Rounders”

In last nght’s Tout Wars Mixed Draft Peralta went in the 7th and Souza went in the 14th. It looks like Peralta in the 11th (+4) and Souza in the 19th (+5) are about equal in terms of step-up value.

Peralta is the more valuable player, however, because he’s a decent contact hitter who will have a decent batting average. This will make him a productive regular.

Souza has a better power/speed combo, but strikes out more than a lot. This leads to a bad batting average and the ever present danger of losing playing time.

If you don’t care about batting average, if you already are dumping it, Souza is probably a reasonable choice, but otherwise Peralta is a clear value in the 11th and the better, more rounded player to keep.

Sincerely,

Rotoman:

12 Team H2H 7×7. Added OBP and SLG. to Offense and no wins but added IP, K/9 and SV/HLD to pitching. Only allowed two keepers

$1 Mookie Betts
$1 Francisco Lindor
$1 Roughned Odor
$26 Nolan Arenado
$18 Joey Votto
$1 Kyle Schwarber
$1 Jose Abreu

$1 Corey Kluber
$1 Noah Syndergaard
$1 Yu Darvish

“Dollar General”

One aspect of answering questions about leagues that don’t have standard configurations and rules is trying to figure out how they play.

In the writer of the above note’s league, potential young stars went for $1 last year, while Nolan Arenado and Joey Votto didn’t have crazy high prices. Does that suggest it’s best to value the extraordinary players, like Arenado and Votto, regardless of price? Or to go cheap and then pay for the studs in the auction, since their prices aren’t that crazy?

Then, if you’re going cheap, as it seems you should, do you take Betts and Abreu, because they’re the two best hitters, even though outfielders, or Lindor and Odor, because they’re MI and scarcer talents, or somehow get Schwarber in there because he’s a Catcher?

Or is it better to lock up your staff, take Kluber and Syndergaard, and get solid there with arms?

I don’t think there is a completely wrong answer here, except to take Yu Darvish, who may turn out to be okay, but is too big a health risk to keep over these other keeps. But I think I would lean toward Betts and Abreu, the two projected to earn the most this year, by quite a bit.

Position scarcity is a thing in a shallow league, but when you’re getting two essentially free players I think it makes sense to go for volume over nuance and speculation.

Sincerely,

Rotoman:

I am in an eight man Points FB league where we get one keeper from the previous year. Whatever keeper we choose we lose the round that the player was drafted the year before. I have to choose between Nolan Arenado and lose my 7th round pick or Corey Seager and lose my 23rd round pick. We can keep them for years to come but the round goes down every year they are kept. For instance, next year I would lose my 6th round for Arenado. What is your opinion??

“Days of Future Past”

Holy cow, there’s some soothsaying involved here.

Nolan Arenado in the 7th, even in an eight team league, is awfully good for this year. And really, in the 6th round next year he’ll be really good, too.

But Corey Seager is one of the top prospects at shortstop, an even shallower position than third base, and the prospect of having him well below price is obviously appealing. Hence your question.

So, first off, the easy answer is that if you have a competitive team this year, keep Arenado. He is a great keep and should be much more productive than Seager this year, and in all likelihood next year and the year after, too.

Now, it’s hard to imagine that in a league with one keep any team is out of it in any year, but if you want to take the long view you do have to consider keeping Seager at 23. After all, you’ll still be getting early valuable picks, including a 7th rounder, which in a league this size is roughly Top 50.

Seager likely won’t be as helpful this year or the next, but as he establishes himself he has the potential to be a Top-3 shortstop for many years to come. What you have to decide is whether it’s worth taking the downgrade this year for that sizable discount in the future.

I would lean toward Arenado, the bird in the proverbial hand, who is only 25 this year. He’s mature and ready now, and while he may not get any better, he’s plenty good enough to be a big plus in the seventh round.

Sincerely,

Hey Rotoman,

I need keeper help. I’m in a 12-team, 5×5 roto league with 29 rostered players. We’re allowed to keep up to 3 players but must surrender a draft pick 4 rounds earlier than where we drafted the player. We can keep the same player the next year by surrendering a draft pick another 4 rounds earlier and so on. There’s no limit on the years we can keep a player other than the declining surrendered draft pick.

My candidates are:

Y. Puig (drafted 19th round, surrender 15th round pick)

D. Salazar (drafted 28th round, surrender 24th round pick)

Y. Darvish (drafted 29th round, surrender 25th round pick)

J. Verlander (drafted 22nd round, surrender 18th round pick)

B. Hamilton (drafted 16th round, surrender 12th round pick).

Who do you like?

Thanks,
Sweet Surrender

Dear Sweet:

Your letter is of interest mostly because I’ve never heard of this keeper system before, and it is delightful.

Which means it is pretty close to unique (though as I type those words I’m sure to learn of others who do this).

As you might imagine, coming up with valuation systems for no dough is outside my pay grade, but let’s run a little pricing logic.

Billy Hamilton is your least attractive player, and he has the highest price. Set him freakin’ free.

The rest of your guys are good keeps no matter what. So, keep Puig, because he’s a hitter, and Salazar, because he’s cheaper than Darvish, and more attractive, which makes your choice either Verlander and Darvish. Both are fine keeps. Which is better?

It would be easy if they were priced equally. Verlander is a former ace who seems to be adjusting to aging and having less velocity. Darvish is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Many pitchers, though not all, do. Will he come back quickly or slowly or not at all is the big question.

Alas, Verlander is more expensive than Darvish. But in the 18th round, Verlander’s price is low enough that his apparent moxie increase in the second half last year, living with less (velocity), is a big plus over Darvish’s rehab.

For me, Puig, Salazar and Verlander are the way to go.

Sincerely,

Hello Rotoman,

I am in a 14-team mixed keeper auction league with 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers) and a budget of $260. Who should I keep as my last keeper? Jason Heyward for $20 or Michael Wacha for $10?

“Wacha Wacha Hey!”

I used that technique I described last week, converting draft position to dollar values, to assess what Heyward is going for these days versus Wacha. And I also converted their stats into dollar values and found something interesting.

Both methods said Heyward is worth $19, while Wacha is worth $14. The easy answer is keep Wacha.

But I’m not so sure. The key thing to remember is that shallow league prices are not linear. What this means is that a guy who collects twice as many stats is worth more than the guy who collects half as many.

The curve, that’s the non-linear part, from last year’s Tout Wars Mixed Auction, a 15 team mixed league, looks like this:

The left side represents the most expensive players, the right side the cheapest. Between them is not a straight line.

However, the part of the line that runs from Wacha, at $14, and Heyward, at $19, is pretty straight, meaning that the stats for each escalating pick are pretty much equivalent.

If that’s the case, it might make sense to keep Wacha instead of Heyward.

On the other hand, see how the curve arcs upward at the $20 mark? Heyward is right on the cusp of being valued non-linearly. He’s on a new team that is offensively rich and going to win the World Series for the first time since 1908, and he’s going to turn 27 this season.

Without knowing who your other keeps are it’s hard to make a contextual argument, so if you need pitchers it’s fine to keep Wacha, but any improvement by Heyward this year in his new hitters park will be valued as a multiple. I think I would roll the dice with the Cub and make history. Or be cursed.

Wachily,

Ps: The writer later contacted me to say what his categories were.

BA, HR, STEALS, RBI, RUNS, OBP and TB on offense and WINS, ERA, WHIP, SO,  HOLDS, SAVES and K/9 on pitching. 

Run those through the grinder and you get $20 for Heyward, $9 for Wacha. Another vote for going for the hitter.

And a reminder that categories matter.

Need a third Keeper in a 2 Catcher, 6×6, 13 Team League:

We can keep three at no cost. Keeping Kershaw and Bryant.

Need to choose No. 3 from Kyle Schwarber, JD Martinez, and Joey Votto.

“Rich”

Forget Schwarber. He’s too young, too inexperienced, to keep over the other two. He could hit 70 homers this year, that’s a possibility, but he could also hit nine, with a .188 BA. He also doesn’t have a position, and while it will be fun to play him at Catcher this year, his defensive issues in the outfield could cost him at bats. He’s a fine guy to freeze at a good price, but he’s risky and doesn’t belong with the other two.

Here’s what you need to know about the other two: If one of your six categories is OBP, keep Votto. If one of your six categories is BA, keep Martinez.

If your six categories are weird, leave a comment with details on what they actually are.

Sincerely,