peter

Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

Doctor confirms Pujols has tear, but won’t need immediate surgery – MLB

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ESPN

The issue here is what do you think you should pay for an Albert Pujols who could shut down at any time. The rehab from the surgery is supposed to be eight months, which is why it didn’t make sense to do it last October.

Eight months back from next February is  May, which is probably too soon to count the Cardinals out even if you’re a pessimist.

But unless the Cards are really in it come June 15th or so, it makes sense to shut Albert down and focus on the last two years of his contract with them. A half a season of Albert is worth about $20, though at this point uncertainty is going to drive his price to $30. I’m going to go with $22.

Maybe the Pujols uncertainty is a good reason to start Colby Rasmus in the minors. Or it may be a good reason to promote him aggressively, the way the Cards once upon a time promoted Pujols. That’s a story worth watching closely.

Patton & Co. is Free

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Patton & Co.

Sign ups have been slow and we don’t know why. If you haven’t signed up please let me know your thoughts. If you tried it out and stopped using it I’d like to know why, too. I’m constantly impressed when I get over there about the information on players, so I feel like the product has a use, especially since the level of postings has been really good.

Now, there will be no pay mode until well after the season starts (and I personally think the model works better with no pay mode at all, at least for the comment database, so I’m arguing for that).

So please check it out if you haven’t, and let me know what your problems are if you have and stopped. Write to askrotoman(at)gmail.com.

Thanks.

Corey Patterson Signs with Reds

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2005 Chicago Cubs Statistics and Roster – Baseball-Reference.com

The story I remember from 2005 involved Patterson slumping, the Cubs messing with his swing and approach (which has always been free swinging), some disagreement between Patterson and his manager (but nice words from management about his professionalism), and then he was gone to Baltimore.

Now he’s reunited with that 2005 manager, Dusty Baker, in Cincinnati. Though he signed a minor league deal, this has to be an indication that Jay Bruce will (unsurprisingly) be beginning the year in Triple-A. More interestingly, it could be a reunion of two guys who like to the bat to be put on the ball and so seem both made for each other and oddly paired. Risky personal dynamics, advancing age, and Patterson’s speed and defense make him a strong sleeper choice at this point.

Patton$ on Disk 08 is here.

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Support Ask Rotoman Page

The link takes you to the page where you can now download the software, Excel and Text files (after paying, of course).

If you’re a past user of the software you’ll be getting the same Windows program with this year’s data, updated weekly through the first week of April.

New users should know that the P$oD software runs superfast in Windows, but comes with a bit of a learning curve. It is designed specifically for draft preparation, though it also comes with an auction module for use during your draft. Note that all the data is available outside of the program, too, and many people who buy the package never run the software at all.

Changes in home run rates during the Retrosheet years

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The Hardball Times

Tom Tango methodically and revealingly demonstrates, using information gleaned from Retrosheet and MLB’s ball-testing lab, that there is real evidence that the home run boom that began in 1993 was a product of a juiced ball. Don’t believe me? Read the story.

Which isn’t to say that this is the final word. Tom’s data relates to balls put into play as they relate to home run rate, which is the best way to figure out the effect of hitting the ball farther, but not so good for determining changes that might stem from the umpires’ calling of the strike zone (in which case the ball might be hit less often).

Plus, I find it hard to believe that given the potency of Mile High in Denver, that the control group of players had a similar increase in home runs to those who didn’t play in Colorado. That’s something to think about while reading Tom’s story.

David Pinto, of baseballmusings.com, says that manufacturing standards tightened up for the ball manufacturers in 1993, and that balls were tested more often. His theory is that the manufacturers established a more tightly wound ball (but still within the official specs) as the de facto standard. Unlike times past, when the equipment would slide and the balls would loosen up and a range of tightnesses were created, the modern ball is uniform and tightly wound.

In no way does this argument rule out the possibility that other factors played a part in the recent power boom (Tom doesn’t publish the numbers after 1998 for one thing), but it does establish that only modest changes to the ball could readily explain much if not all of the changes. That’s worth remembering when it is tempting to overreact.

The running of the monkeys —

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Sal Baxamusa — The Hardball Times

Sal looks at the way the Marcel the Monkey projections change based on a ballplayers’ (in this case Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones) recent hot and cold streaks. His charts do a particularly good job of showing how short-term changes shape our overall picture of a player’s skills and future value.

His conclusion is pretty dull, considering how much fun the charts are (if you like charts), but that’s probably right, too.

Would anyone like to see more of these?