peter

Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

2002 Tout Wars Draft

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Ask Rotoman :: Yeah, 2002

I have to admit, I was giddy. I wrote up who I was going to buy and why the night before the 2002 Tout Wars draft, and then submitted commentary later about why things changed.

They changed mostly because Albert Pujols went for $28. We have to adapt.

Still, even with a $28 Pujols my askrotoman.com squad finished fifth, as it had in 2001 and 2000. For some reason revealing who I was going to buy before the auction didn’t get me a better team. It got me a mediocre one.

Revisiting the 2002 draft story reminds me that we inevitably spout all kinds of booshwah because we’re excited and interested and we can. And we know stuff. The future careers of baseball players is in their hands. We get to judge, but they get to gloriously prove us wrong.

Those are the moments we should live for.

Decoding the Depth Charts: White Sox 2B

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This is a tricky one, because a lot has happened in the last couple of days.

What was a Battle Royale (think Pulp Fiction) has suddenly become a Media Noche (think Memories of Underdevelopment). Alexei Ramirez is suddenly catapulted into the White Sox starting job because yesterday the team waived Juan Uribe and today Danny Richar discovered a stress fracture in his ribs. Or is he?

Just so you know, I hadn’t projected (in Patton$onDisk08) Ramirez yet because absent a role and absent context it’s really hard to do any work at all. He’s been a very good player in Cuba and could be a major leaguer, or not. There’s really no way we can know with anything but the certainty that comes from saying that he’s a good athlete, he can hit but his defensive rep is weak, and we’ll see.

I had Richar down for 400 at bats, with three homers and three steals. He was a placeholder, at best, if he ended up getting that playing time. The reason he might have…

Is because Juan Uribe, who can hit a little, also can’t resist swinging. So he makes plenty of outs while occasionally whacking the ball. I had him down for 375 at bats, too many for the two of them combined, but again, each probably with fewer than one of them would have. If one hadn’t been released and the other injured.

So what do we do with Alexei Ramirez? Let’s look at some depth charts.

Rotowire.com has Ramirez as the White Sox starting 2B, with Pablo Ozuna as the backup. Danny Richar? Is out.

BaseballHQ.com gives Ramirez 40 percent of the playing time, with Richar and Uribe splitting the other 60 percent.

Over at sandlotshrink.com they like Richar, but note his injury, backed up by Ramirez.

ESPN.com has Uribe down as the starter, followed by Richar and Ozuna (they have Ramirez as the backup at shortstop behind Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe).

The usual quirky Rototimes.com has Uribe as the starter, Richar as the sub and Ramirez as the sub sub.

Rotoworld.com has Danny Richar alone at second base, with Ramirez listed as the third string center fielder.

Yahoo.com lists Uribe, then Ramirez.

The comprehensive Sportsline.com goes with Uribe, then Ramirez, then Richar, then Ozuna, then out of left field, literally, Jason Bourgeois.

So, how to sum it up? The Richar injury gets the obvious guy to fail out of the way. But does it mean the job is Ramirez’s? Indications are that the waivers on Uribe are revocable, so let’s leave the last word to Ozzie Guillen, who deserves it:

“Why have we not named Uribe the second baseman? I mean, he’s a great spring-training player, then all of a sudden spring training is over and we see a different player. If the season starts tomorrow, who pitches for Cleveland? Sabathia? Well, then the starting second baseman will be Pablo Ozuna. The next day? We’ll see.”

I’ve cut Richar’s projected time in half, left Uribe the same, and given a slight bump to Ozuna, who apparently will play against lefties. Alexei Ramirez? I’m leaving him blank. He may well earn a role this summer, probably as a utility player, but there seem to be too many bodies ahead of him right now to project him for playing time.

If he’s on the White Sox on opening day he’ll be worth a bid in the end game, unless he emerges from the scrum with the job. Then bump him to $6.

Patton on the XFL

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BaseballHQ.com

When Alex told me he was going to write about the XFL, a league a bunch of us oldtimers play in with oddball rules but rigorous discipline, I was skeptical.

Let me conclude, however, before you’ve read this, because no one wants me to go on too long, that Alex is the master of the roto narrative. I dare say that there isn’t anyone else in the world you might want to read about a fantasy baseball season. Especially when you’re not involved. But it’s hard to stop reading Alex.

If you play in a mixed league, you’ll want to read this story, which somehow finds all the suppleness of the game in the decidedly unsupple details of our rosters.

3/21 Fixed the link.

Fantasy Advice From the Front Office to Your Office

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MLB Front Office

These guys sent me an email today and asked me (and I’m sure everyone else they could think of) to write about them. The site is brand new and a little thin. The two big news stories are the launch of the new design, which is more exciting for them than us, and their season preview, which isn’t yet available. It’s also one of those widgeted together CMS jobs, not unattractive (at all) but distractingly overwhelming with information on the front page. And, I would suggest, not terribly helpful steering me toward what I should be reading.

But I looked around some more and found a nice simple story in the articles section about contact rates and batting average that will be very useful if true for fantasy players, and made me want to put together my own study.

There’s also a piece, linked to here, about the very varying ADP for some fellas with similar stats last year. I like this sort of thing and thought it might be of interest for me to post my projections for the five guys (rather than the writer’s use of last year’s stats).

Player A   550   116   45    133   2    .306

Player B   600    91   32   121     5   .323

Player C   550     91  35    110    5    .296

Player D   550    83    33   109   1   .300

Player E   450    89   26     88   5    .321

I think my projections explain why Player E is being drafted 66th (I have him rated a little lower, as the 50th best hitter) this year. He’s old and he’s been hurt recently. But as the writer says in this useful piece, when the perception runs ahead of the player’s decline (one hopes) there’s a chance to find some real value. (Actually, he ends the story with a rather wishy-washy conclusion, which suggests he thinks taking Player E with the 66th pick is pushing it a little, too. Good for him!)

Good luck to MLB Front Office. Or as my intellectual property attorney, Confucius, might say, May the legal team at MLB and MLBAM not hear about their site for a long time.

Bill James shares his method to determine when a college basketball game is out of reach.

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Slate Magazine

A week or two ago I posted at pattonandco.com (Barry Bonds) that Bill James’ recent work seemed shoddy. The ideas weren’t fully thought through, and the execution was haphazard. But that was about his baseball work.

This story is good fun, even if Bill reveals himself as a Huckabee supporter, and has a bit of fun with figuring out who is going to win basketball games (which on a practical level might save someone wasted hours, depending on how many basketball games they watch).

The most excellent thing about this is that it doesn’t matter if the method works or not. Here is Bill James having some fun, and that’s fun for us. Bravo.

The Value Method 2008 – Elite Fantasy Baseball Strategy

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The Value Method 2008 – Elite Fantasy Baseball Strategy

I don’t think it’s cranky to wonder why the purveyors of the Value Method 08 don’t have any personal identification information on their site. They may be going for as clean an appearance as their site design, but if they really had knowledge to sell wouldn’t they be touting their experience, their math chops, their writing skills? Can it really all be about Google adwords?

If you’ve bought the Method I’d be curious about your reaction.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Florida Centerfield

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If you saw Cameron Maybin in his cup last year, and in Arizona later in the fall, you would not though he would be ready this summer to play in the major leagues. An awesome physical talent, yes, a ready major leaguer, no. But having traded away Miguel Cabrera, their star, the Marlins have to be inclined to put on display what they reaped.

Right?

Rotowire.com has him ranked No. 1, noting that he’s hit some opposite field homers with a decent average this spring. They have Alejandro De Aza, not a hitter but having a better spring, second, and Cody Ross, not a regular but he can hit, third. Finally, there is Alfredo Amezaga, the speedy supersub who is so far down the depth chart at each position you don’t even think about him. He’s averaged 350 AB the last two years, with a bunch of steals.

MLB.com has them ranked Ross, De Aza, and Maybin, which is why we’re doing this.

Rototimes.com likes Ross, Amezaga, De Aza, and has Maybin in Albuquerque.

Sandlotshrink.com digs ’em Maybin, Ross, De Aza.

Rotoworld.com has Maybin and De Aza and that’s it.

You can count on ESPN.com to get original. After Maybin and De Aza, yawn, they go for Brett Carroll, and then Ross. Carroll is coming off something of a Triple-A breakout season, but he’s old, his BB/K numbers aren’t so good, and, well, isn’t that enough?

BaseballHQ.com has Maybin with 55 percent of the PT, Ross with 30 percent, De Aza at 10 percent, and long lost speedster Eric Reed at 5 percent.

Yahoo.com is all over the Maybin, Ross sequence.

CBS Sportsline.com is kind of dull, with the Maybin, Ross, De Aza start, but then chimes in with Alexis Gomez, a country heretofore unheard from.

Going into this little survey I had Maybin for 299 fairly weak at bats. Lots of strikeouts, but a comforting number of walks and plenty of steals.

I had De Aza for a similar number of AB (297) but no power and no speed and no contact.

I had Cody Ross for a similar number, too, (266) because nobody is the front runner.

Remember, too, that these three aren’t limited to center field. With the injury prone Jeremy Heredia in left field and the ancient Luis Gonzalez in right, there will be blood out there.

Amezaga, who will play everywhere and no where (fish fans hope) gets 380 AB from me, splitting the difference of the past two years. I put Brett Carroll down for 96 AB, and Eric Reed for 194.

Indecision breeds a mess, that’s for sure. In spring training De Aza has 42 PA, Carroll has 38, Maybin has 35, Ross has 38, Gomez has 29 and Eric Reed didn’t make the cut.

I’m going to cut Eric Reed to nothing and leave the rest of them right where they are. My guess is that neither De Aza nor Maybin can hold the job this year, and Ross will end up with the most AB. But with 10 days left it’s better to remember what they cannot do then to underestimate their PT and create the illusion there is something they can do.

My prediction is that Maybin and De Aza each get a quarter of a season to show what they can’t do, and probably Cody Ross gets the most playing time.

PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

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This was in the Baseball Prospectus newsletter, which comes via email every day.

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2008 AL Stolen Base Leaders, by PECOTA Projected SB

Player, Team, SB

Freddy Guzman, TEX, 37
Carl Crawford, TBA, 35
Brian Roberts, BAL, 35
Chone Figgins, LAA, 33
Bradley Coon, LAA, 33

What you’ve got to like about PECOTA is that it finds stuff. Bradley Coon was a 25 year old in Double-A last year who stole 24 bases in 36 attempts. The Angels’ outfield is already crowded, as is their infield. This slap-hitting oldie with moderate speed seems an unlikely guy to see any major league playing time.

Freddy Guzman is no longer with the Rangers. He was copped in the Rule 5 draft last December and is hoping to snag the job as Curtis Granderson’s backup this summer in Detroit. He’s a real burner whose only problems are that he’s had a hard time making it to the majors, and hasn’t hit in his two brief trials. He’s got a decent eye but no power, so his game rests on his ability to steal first and then second.

The odds of either Guzman or Coons ending up in the Top 5 in the AL at this point are laughable, which is why I like BP’s picks. If they alert you to a player with potential who is for some reason off the radar, they’ve done their job.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Rangers Closer

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There are a number of tenuous bullpen situations this spring, but entering the last two weeks of camp none is more unsettled than the closer order in Texas. For the record, I have CJ Wilson projected for 7 saves, Eddie Guardado with 14, Joaquin Benoit with 10 and Kazuo Fukumori with 3. This is major ass covering that probably makes things seem more clear cut than they are. Let’s see how the other see it.

Yahoo.com says Wilson, Benoit, Guardado, Fukumori.

MLB.com has Guardado and Wilson as co-closers, backed up by Benoit. Fukumori ranks down their list.

Rototimes.com has Guardado and Wilson as co-closers, with Benoit and Frank Francisco as setup guys. Fukumori isn’t listed.

Rotoworld.com has them listed Wilson, Fukumori, Benoit, Guardado.

SandlotShrink.com has Wilson listed as the closer, and Guardado, Benoit and Fukumori as the setup guys.

BaseballHQ.com gives Wilson 70 percent of the saves, Guardado and Benoit 10 percent each and Fukumori five percent. The remaining five percent is out there, waiting.

Rotowire.com reports that CJ Wilson, who has been hurting this spring, is healthy, while Eddie Guardado’s bum knee didn’t help him make his case to be closer when Wilson was down. Still, they’re listed as co-closers. Benoit is the setup guy, though he’s been hurt this spring, too, with Fukumori behind him.

Sportsline.com has them listed as Wilson, Benoit, Guardado, and Fukumori.

All of which tells us that Wilson is probably the closer if his arm is okay (he was hurting with biceps tendinitis), and it’s anyone’s guess who will take his place if he can’t go (or if he fails, which I think his walk rate last year suggests could happen).

Guardado’s numbers last year don’t look so hot, but most of the damage came around his DL time. He finished strong and while that earn him a ringing endorsement because of his age and the wear and tear he’s endured, he’s got more potential than you might think. I like Benoit but he’s not going to move ahead of the other two unless they go down. And Fukumori is the wild card. A successful closer in Japan, he’s got the head for the job.

The mistake here wouldn’t be taking any few of these guys, but paying more for them combined than you would for the Texas closer. If it looks like Wilson’s the one he’s likely to go for closer money. Backing him up with the other guys, who will all have value in 4×4 leagues, will probably each cost you a little premium because of the chance that they’ll end up in the closer’s seat. And you’ll end up paying too much for the Texas closer and some setup guys.

But for cheap? Get on ’em all. You just might win the lottery.