Alex Rodriguez and the invisible depths of steroid abuse.

By William Saletan – Slate Magazine

I’m a regular reader of Slate, which features smart often contrarian writing about politics, culture and lifestyle. One regular column is called Human Nature, by William Saletan, a writer who specializes in parsing semantics and finding new or clearer meaning. Human Nature is about science, which allows him range broadly over a variety of topics.

I used to be a fan of his, but I stopped reading him after he wrote an explosive series about race and intelligence, quoting eugenics theorists who say there is racial difference without revealing that they often had ties to racialist groups. Saletan was trying to get at the truth about evolution, race, intelligence, and discuss how we should deal with legal, social and moral issues that come with knowing that there are racial differences in intelligence. That’s perhaps a brave and worthy topic, if you’re being speculative, but Saletan wrote it up as if the issue had been settled scientifically. It certainly has not been, and to assert that it is was a horrible blunder that destroyed the trust I had him as a writer.

Today he writes a piece, a horribly naive series of questions about ARod and baseball’s steroids testing, that purportedly points out that PED use is inevitably broader than the number of people caught (doh!), but also uses a broad brush to make all sorts of implications that just a little work would have taught him were false. 

The 2003 secret tests weren’t secret. They were part of a deal between MLB and the union. Everyone knew about them, and I’m pretty sure we can say there were no other agreed upon testing programs before 2003. To suggest that there were is just dumb.

If there were no other tests then the government didn’t seize any other results and the Union didn’t suppress them. If those things didn’t happen, and again, there is a nearly zero chance they did, to assert that they might have is just bogus and exploitative.

Saletan does talk about the allegations that Gene Orza, of the player’s union, warned A-Rod and others of the impending 2004 tests, as the basis for the union perhaps warning other players about other tests. Could have happened, I’ll give him that one. 

But a time line in the NY Times today shows that the 2004 testing didn’t begin until July of 2004, and the 104 players who tested positive in 2003 weren’t tested until they had been informed they’d tested positive–in September! With just a few weeks of testing to go between being told of their 2003 positive tests and the end of the season, those players were in effect told when the tests would happen, without actually being told. It becomes unclear how explosive the charge against Orza could be in this instance, but we’ll have to see what develops.

The reason the 2004 testing started late was because the union and the owners disagreed about technical issues involving the tests and the definition of a positive test, according to the Times. No one knows why it took the union months to inform the players who tested positive in 2003 about that after federal investigators seized the urine samples in April 2004. And no one knows why the union didn’t destroy the samples, as it was legally allowed to do, once the results had been certified in November 2003, which would have ensured the player’s anonymity, which had been a crucial component of the 2003 testing.

(I have a question. I assume that no one knew which players tested positive until the federal investigators seized the samples, at which point it became necessary to find out who they were in order to inform them that the government had their names and their positive tests. But I don’t know that. I’ve never seen the point addressed directly. Or maybe I should go back and reread the Mitchell report. But unless that was the case then the results weren’t really anonymous anyway.)

But I’m getting off track here. The point is that Saletan ignores the facts and just makes stuff up, and while that doesn’t invalidate his overall point (that more players used than tested positive in 2003) and while he points out that what he’s suggesting isn’t necessarily true, it is really bad form that most of his questions almost certainly aren’t true. That’s just shoddy.

About The Guide 2009

The last post I wrote was about the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009, of which I’m the editor. I think we create an excellent preseason fantasy preview that also has, unlike nearly every other fantasy mag, value all season long. When a guy gets called up in midseason there’s a good chance he’ll be in the Guide.

The Guide also has last year’s Games Played by Position data (major leagues and minor), which you won’t find anywhere else in such easy format (for the 1500+ players included in the Guide).

I also want to point out that the Guide is a fantasy product that is fact based. The arguments made for and against players are based on information that is divulged as the argument is made. A lot of the world of baseball happens randomly, a great deal of the game’s outcomes are random, but that shouldn’t be an excuse for spouting. Maybe it’s a style thing, but I hate guys (always guys) shouting at me about what matters.

What matters isn’t shouting.

Thanks for listening, Peter.

Ps. The Guide has perceptive player profiles, the picks and pans of many industry lights, my bid prices (far in advance of the season) and access via the link in the editor’s letter to updated projections (which are way better than the mechanical projections we can do in November) and prices on the website. Plus strategy pieces from experts who won tough leagues, about how they did it. And the Creativesports.com Mock Draft, which saddled me with the first pick this year. I went with Pujols, though that isn’t the consensus choice. But that’s why we do it.

the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 Cover
The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 Cover

The new Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 has been out for a few weeks now, but I’ve been so busy and this is the offseason I hadn’t plugged it here. New this year are complete Major League and Minor League Games Played by Position for all the listed players.

Once again the five year Player Cost and Player Earned scans give a most excellent idea about how prices change after a player has had an inexplicably bad year. Not much. They also give a good idea of player’s real value, apart from whatever spike or slough he’s just gone through.

And, of course, there are the crowd pleasing Picks and Pans, in which a broad cross section of fantasy experts write their own player comments for the players they care for or loath most.

The mag is out in all the usual Barnes and Nobles and Walmarts and Borders and other newsstands and groceries. Enjoy.

The 2008 Scouting Report

By the Fans for the Fans.

There are people with a lot of energy, and then there is Tom Tango. He not only invented the Marcel the Monkey projections, but also runs the Fans Scouting Report project, which polls real people to report on what they see when they watch players on defense.

They thought Edgar Renteria was awful last year. Some thought Michael Young, surprise Gold Glove winner, was good, but some thought he was awful. Everyone liked Erick Aybar.

The sample sizes aren’t big enough to allow much authority to the ratings, but they are another data point in the endless drive to figure out who can play defense and who can’t.

Maximum impact sluggers

By the Numbers: Al Melchior

This is just a solid bit of analysis of power hitters we don’t know for next year. Or, like Chris Davis, who we think we know too well.

According to former BaseballHQer Melchior, Davis should be fine but not great, and you shouldn’t overlook all those strike outs (he shows you why).

Good stuff, though you shouldn’t overrely on strikeout rates to gauge future performance. Still, youngsters who fail to make contact have a lot of things they have to improve if they’re going to be successful the second time round the league. Most, as Al points out, don’t make it.

Hitler is a Cubs Fan

Winter Meetings Preview at hirejimessian.com

You would think there could be too many Downfall mashups, but this isn’t the one that crosses the line. Very well written, and you all know about the acting.

Happy Birthday Sean Forman!

Halos Heaven

The link is an effusive thanks to Sean for creating and developing and then pretty much perfecting baseball-reference.com. All the more important because it’s all true. The HOF waits, though I suspect Sean will be in the class of 2022.

Call Me Crazy! Punto Signs! Call Twins Crazy!

Yahoo Sports

PUNTO RETURNS TO TWINS

Nick Punto isn’t the full-time shortstop the Minnesota Twins are seeking, but he’s been excellent insurance in the past and now will be for another two years. Punto, 31, signed a two-year deal for $8.5 million with an option for a third year Thursday.

Punto batted .284 last season and was the Twins’ regular shortstop for much of the season. The Twins have had trouble filling the position since trading Jason Bartlett to the Tampa Bay Rays a year ago.

How in the world can anyone justify paying Nick Punto more than $4M per year? It is this kind of signing that makes me think that major league teams know things that those of us outside the decision making core just don’t know.

I mean, the Twins have other options for utility infielders and backup starter shortstops who might cost 1/10th what they’re paying Punto. Can he be ten times more valuable than those alternatives are? Can he be three times as valuable? It doesn’t seem so.

Yeesh.

(Note that I’m not arguing that Nick Punto stinks or doesn’t deserve to play in the majors, or even that he isn’t a starter. The point is that he isn’t so much better than the alternatives to be worth $4M per year. If he’s worth $4M what is Rafael Furcal worth?)

PHILLIES go to the World Series

For the first time since 1993: MLB.com: Gameday

One league, sixteen teams. Going to the World Series once in 15 years seems pretty normal. All things being equal.