Answers to fantasy baseball questions (and much more) since 1996
John Holdzkom landed in the Pirates pen a few weeks ago with a spotty history. He started this year in an independent league in Texas, for instance.
A friend of our friend Tim McLeod, Brook “Boris” Kilpatrick, has some first-hand experience with Holdzkom in Australia in 2013, and shares it at his website that covers Australian baseball. It’s a fun piece.
We make trades trying to get an edge for ourselves, but since the other guy is also trying to get an edge what we hope for is a Win-Win scenario. Both teams get what they need. Very nice, and all that, but it doesn’t always work out that way.
Rafael Soriano’s meltdown in last night’s Nationals game caused me to revisit a trade I made in Tout NL with Brian Walton at the end of July. Brian, in fact, took possession of Rafael Soriano on July 28th, the same day I took possession of Eric Young Jr.
Soriano had a 1.10 ERA and .902 WHIP going into that night’s play.
Young was averaging 50 AB and 6 SB per month on the season, though he had been slightly more productive when active because he missed time on the DL in June. In July, up to the point of the trade, he had 38 PA and 5 steals.
To set the context, Brian and I were virtually tied in Saves, each with one closer, at the bottom of the pile. The idea was that whichever of us got two closers would be sure to gain at least a few points in Saves. I was ahead of Brian, so I wanted him to trade me his closer, but he wasn’t interested in my starting pitchers (other than Bumgarner, who I wasn’t trading), and all my hitters were hurt. I needed steals (and Runs and RBI) and Brian had a big lead. It wasn’t perfect for me, but it seemed fair on the points potential, Soriano for Young, and, more to the point, something had to be done.
If I got a steal for every save I lost I would have been happy.
The night of July 28, Soriano allowed 4 runs and blew the save and Eric Young did not play. And that’s the way it’s gone for both ever since.
Since Walton acquired Soriano he’s won 2, saved 6, with an 8.22 ERA and 1.786 WHIP. He has struck out 15 in 15.1 innings.
Since I acquired Eric Young he’s had just 24 AB and stolen 2 bases, with 3 runs and 2 RBI. Yawn!
What-if scenarios are tricky, but to assess it roughly, if I had kept Soriano I would have one half point more in saves (tied with Walton, instead of 12 behind), and at least one fewer point in ERA and WHIP, and my hitting would be the same, except I’d be five behind the two guys ahead of me in steals, instead of three.
Brian has gained one and  a half points in Saves, and Soriano’s terribleness may not have cost him points in ERA and WHIP, but that’s because he’s so low in the standings in those cats (and he remains in first in steals).
He wins the deal, but not in the way either of us expected.
In which they preview the first week’s games for fantasy football purposes.
Rotoman:
I am wondering if I should start Max Scherzer tonight, September 4th, against the Cleveland Indians? I am not going to win the ‘Wins’ category in my current matchup, but a solid outing from Scherzer could lock me into winning ERA and WHIP. He has had a few shaky starts recently and the games against the Indians this year seem to yield a high amout of runs. Just wondering how you are feeling about that start or if it is too risky?
“Unsure About Scherzer”
Dear Unsure,
Whatever I say here is going to be wrong, and whatever you do is going to be wrong. That’s Roto Law.
The reason you pay a lot of for Scherzer is because over the course of the season you know he’s going to be real good, even when he has some bad starts.
But things change a little when the Wins category doesn’t matter. Instead of a four category contributor he’s a three category guy. In roto leagues two of those cats that are very hard to move at this time of year. I’m inferring you’re in a Head to Head league, in which case the difference between a good and bad outing from Scherzer could be the difference between winning and losing.
As you say, his last three starts have been poor, and his overall performance against the Indians this year has been weak. So there’s reason to worry. Still, I’m inclined to no overthink it. If the Tigers think Scherzer should be out there, I think he has to pitch for my team if a good performance will help me.
There’s too much time left in the season to start doubting your assets. And I’m sure Scherzer is an asset.
I did check Scherzer’s record against the Indians in 2013, and he was 3-0 versus the team, with a 2.70 ERA. The bottom line on performance versus opponents is the sample is always too small to rely on, even though there may be a decided reason a pitcher struggles against certain lineups. The problem is if he’s just had a run of normal bad luck, his numbers might look exactly the same.
So, stick with Scherzer, I say.
I just wish I could tell you whether you should or shouldn’t take my advice.
Sincerely,
Rotoman
One of the country’s largest circulation daily newspapers announced yesterday that they’ve changed their policy, and will not publish (with the exception of reader letters and quotes in which the name is relevant, as well as packages supplied by outside vendors, though they’re going to try to strip it from those) the Washington NFL team’s name. I suspect they’re going to get some letters.
None of the most expensive hitters show up on the list of profitmakers, because the known hitters are paid for on auction day. The Top 20 is a mix of guys having explosively good years after being paid to be a little above average, and the unknowns who weren’t bought or were taken in the end game, who have turned out to be pretty productive. It’s hard to look back to March and see how we could have predicted any of these breakouts, but the teams that landed these guys have a leg up on the rest of us.
Profits are where it’s at, the more you have the more likely you are to win, and they can be found among starters and relievers, including setup guys. Starting studs can still turn out to be a bargain, but the differencemaker in pitching is the number of impact players who are either unbought in the auction or picked up for a buck or two in the end game.
You’ll find the Google Sheet here, the explanation and some follow up posts at RotomansGuide.com.
Yesterday was the trading deadline in Tout Wars. You can see the NL standings by clicking here. I currently have 58 points.
As recently as the third period in July I had 73 points and was battling with four other teams for the title.
But then a series of injuries, which cost the season or serious playing time for all my stars (Hanley, McCutchen, Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, and dreadful play by Jay Bruce), knocked me down the ladder.
Now I’m playing to stay above 60 points, which is where a next-year FAAB penalty kicks in, and to gain as many places as I can, to earn an earlier reserve round pick next spring.
Alas, there was no easy path to gaining points. While I’m in last in RBI and Runs, I still have points in HR and SB to defend and to attain, so selling off my hitters for pitching didn’t work. Similarly, I’m in a fight for Wins and Strikeouts, as well as in a scrum for ERA and WHIP.
The interesting thing yesterday morning was that the return of McCutchen and Hanley had stabilized the team in HR, and I was content to ride with the FAAB hammer and my squad going forward, hoping that Zimmerman and Votto might make contributions in the last couple of weeks. I was getting enough playing time from the scrubs I’d picked up to possibly hold on. But then I got an email from Scott Wilderman saying he wanted to trade Kenley Jansen and Francisco Rodriguez.
Weeks earlier I had tried to pry them from him for some starting pitching, but he didn’t want to do it. Instead, I ended up trading Rafael Soriano away, so that now Scott’s saves had little value for me. I almost said no to him, but then offered him Wily Peralta and Alfredo Simon, who have been struggling a bit and aren’t huge K guys. He said yes.
Now I had two closers, but no chance to gain in Saves, so I offered the closers for good middle guys plus offensive help. I received a few different offers and took these:
Kenley Jansen and Charlie Culberson for Jordan Walden and Scooter Gennett from Brian Walton.
Francisco Rodriguez and Kevin Frandsen for Tyler Clippard and Chris Owings from Mike Gianella.
The only downside on this was I was hoping to turn Frandsen into Dilson Herrera, but as it turned out my bid (which I had to withdraw) wasn’t nearly high enough. So, I’ll take my chances with Owings, who isn’t expected to play full time, but should come off the DL today.
Having replaced two starters with Clippard and Walden, I looked to FAAB and picked up Dylan Axelrod and Felix Doubront, both of whom have looked good lately. My hope is some extra strikeouts and some good innings, though this is a risky proposition.
Still, I now have Clippard, Walden, Doubront, Axelrod, Owings and Gennett instead of Peralta, Simon, Broxton, Diekman, Frandsen and Culberson. There’s something to be said for fresh faces.