Month: September 2014

Six and out. An American Dream League Update.

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Yesterday:

Kyle Seager hit a homer and I gained half a point by moving ahead of the Jerrys. And Albert Pujols hit a homer and moved the Bags into a tie with the Tooners.

The Bags remained tied with the Nova in RBI, thanks to that Pujols dinger in a lost cause, and the Moose Factory passed both, costing the Bags a point.

Moose stole two bases, passing me in that category. No movement for the Bags, who are one ahead and two behind.

In Batting Average the Bags continue to flail, and the Nabobs have moved within .0004 of catching them. More importantly, a .002 gap has opened in front of the Bags.

In Wins, the Palukas won the suspended game with Cody Allen, moving to within one of the Bags, but then the Bags (Pineda) and BBs won games. Kyle Lobstein got off to a bad start to his game versus the White Sox, but ended up allowing two runs in seven innings and losing because the Tigers were shut down by free agent starter Chris Bassitt. Bags are now two wins behind me.

In the Saves clump, Bags (Petricka) and Peppers (Feliz) earned saves, moving one ahead of the Tooners and Hackers.

Thanks to CJ Wilson, the BBs fell behind me in ERA, and there was no real WHIP movement.

The final tally? Bad K still rule, with 71, while the Bags stand at 69.5. 

At one moment yesterday—at least—it was 70-69.5, but the Palukas had lost half a point.  There are too many points at stake in too many categories to predict how this is going to go. What I know is that if I lose that point to the Bags in wins, I’m toast.

Which means I have to seriously consider activating Kyle Gibson for today’s game against the Diamondbacks. Gibson has been miserable the last month, it’s something of a surprise the Twins are running him out there again. But Arizona is the games 24th worst offense, and the pitcher will be hitting.

Unmentioned until now, the Peppers report they have a road to about 68 points, climbing into third or even second place possibly if he gets enough steals. He was frustrated that Terrance Gore’s steal in the 10th inning of yesterday’s resumed suspended game didn’t count for his team.

Could the hue and cry of fantasy league players make baseball change the way it does its bookkeeping?

UPDATE: Before Tuesday night’s games I dropped Adam Lind and activated Nick Franklin, and released Jeff Beliveau and activated Kyle Gibson, who I had sat two weeks ago to try to avoid more beatings. Franklin, I hope, has more chance for HR and SB than Lind. I don’t care that much about BA and RBI. As for Gibson, he has a start tonight against a weak Arizona offense and Sunday, against a resting Tigers. I have one team one Win ahead of me, and the second place team is two wins behind. This stupid category is very important. But the risk is that Gibson pulls a Paxton. I’m hoping very short leash, since he’s in uncharted innings waters, but we’ll see.

 

 

Beat Rotoman in a Daily Game, this Friday!

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Screenshot 2014-09-22 20.16.00It’s free! And if you beat me you can win a $10 entry to a future game.

I don’t know much about that, but what I do know is that I’ve never played a daily game before. So I’m inexperienced.

I know, too, that while the illustration shows a football player, I’m playing baseball.

I also know this game is the work of a guy named Brandon Ward, who runs a Daily Game site called Advanced Sportstistics. You can register and join FreeRoll3 from this page.

Brandon’s gimmick is advanced stats. Hitters accrue points for Runs Created, among other things, while pitchers gain points for FIP (and, non analytically, wins).

I’m not sure about the categories, there seems to be a problem with redundancy, but the game is free, so I’m going to give it a try. And I’m going to beat you.

Good luck!

Seven More Days in the American Dream League

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Yesterday started off nicely, with two homers, giving me a little cushion over the Jerrys, but the last runs of the day came from a Josh Donaldson blast, bringing the Jerrys back into a tie with me in home runs. I finished the day with 70.5 points.

Screenshot 2014-09-22 11.43.59All kinds of things happened to the Bags, who gained a point and a half in RBI, but lost two in Saves, where four teams stand tied today at 58. He has a total of 69 points this morning.

Each team’s closers:

BAGS: Petricka, Putnam, Britton (4/10) (Games at home/Games on road)
TOONERS: Robertson, Doolittle (7/7)
PEPPERMARTINS: Qualls, Feliz, Street (7/12)
HACKERS: Mujica, Nathan (13/0)

The Peppers have the edge here. They also have Soria, if Nathan should stumble. Bags benefit because closers derive a slightly higher percentage of their saves when the team is on the road, but the bottom line is that in such a small number of games, anything can happen.

The other big news as of this morning. The Bags had $11 FAAB left, no one else had more than $6. I had $0. We bought:

Bags paid $7 for Rusney Castillo. I drafted Lisalverto Bonilla and Danny Farquhar.

One other interesting thing today. At 6:05 the Indians and Royals resume a game that was suspended a few weeks ago, with the Indians up by two entering the bottom of the 10th inning. Stats aren’t credited from suspended games until the game is finished. If the Indians can hold on Cody Allen, who blew the save in the 9th, will get the win, moving the Palukas within one win of the Bags.

The Bags have eight starts this week. The Pals have only five on their active roster, with Allen Webster on the bench.

I’m one win behind the Jerry’s, in what could prove to be another pivotal point. I have seven starts active, with Kyle Gibson and Hector Noesi on the bench. The Jerry’s have five starters.

About the Palukas: They’re in the hunt with 77 points, but it looks to me like they have a potential plus of three points, unless something incredible happens. It’s possible, but I think unlikely, for both my team and the Bags to finish below 70, the Pals apparent cap. We’ll be watching.

 

 

Eight Days Left.

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Entering Saturday’s games I had a two point lead on the Burn Bags. Here’s what happened that mattered:

My team had no starting pitchers. Matt Scherzer won a game for the Tigers and for Jerry’s Kids. I lost half a point.

The Burn Bags got a win from Marcus Stroman, and gained half a game.

At the start of Sunday, Bad K had 70.5, Burn Bags had 69.5.

Bad K had Rick Porcello starting on Sunday. Burn Bags had Corey Kluber and Hisashi Iwakuma. What could go wrong?

No. 9! A Big Day With The Stick

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I asked for homers, and Kyle Seager, Ian Kinsler, and Kennys Vargas each hit one, while Dustin Ackley hit two!

I asked for steals, and James Jones came running.

I asked for wins, and, oh well. Kevin Gausman pitched fine, but some porous defense and the fact that, having clinched, the Orioles had no need to push him, lead to a no decision.

Alas, the Jerry’s won, costing me a half point in Wins. We’re tied. He’s got Scherzer going today. I could promote Hector Noesi, who is facing the Rays and Chris Archer in Tampa. What are the odds? The White Sox are underdogs by 161+, meaning if you bet $100 on them you would get paid $161 if they won. Yeesh.

So, after a very nice day with the stick and, other than Yeorvis Medina, some good pitching, the Bad K lost a point. And the Bags, who scored wins from Taiwan Walker and Jose Quintana, gained a point. So things are tightening up.

UPDATE: I took a look at ERA and 3 ER in 5 IP would cost me a point to the Nova. Without Noesi pitching today I have nine starts left (including Noesi against the Royals next week). So do the Jerry’s. I’m not going to activate him.

Screenshot 2014-09-20 10.20.43

Countdown! 10 Days to… What?

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I’m in first place in the American Dream League. Here are today’s standings (click to enlarge):Screenshot 2014-09-19 14.08.53There are 10 days left in the season, and I find myself chewing over the categories, trying to find comfort, but there is little succor except that right now I’m in first place. Here are some of the things that my team needs to do:

Hit home runs. As the start of this week my team was one behind Jerry’s Kids, but is now four behind. And only one ahead of the Moose Factory. Passing the Jerry’s is the only offensive point I can add.

Steal bases. I’m three steals ahead of the Moose Factory, but they’ve been running a lot. I lost Alex Rios and Brock Holt, and Erick Aybar isn’t running. I put James Jones in on Wednesday and he stole a base. That’s good.

Win games. At the start of the week I was four wins ahead of Jerry’s Kids, but that is down to one. I’ve got Kevin Gausman tonight against the Red Sox. Jerry’s have Hiroki Kuroda against the Blue Jays. If Gausman doesn’t win I may have to insert Hector Noesi for his Sunday start, which is alarming. I could use some relief wins.

Get a save. A month ago I had three more saves than the BB Guns, who had no closers. But suddenly Aaron Sanchez saved two games for the Blue Jays and now I have a one save lead.

The bottom line for my team is I have an upside of one point in home runs, and that’s pretty much it (barring a complete pitching meltdown for one of the teams ahead of me in ERA and WHIP). I have a downside of about three and a half points.

Let’s look at my main competitor, the Burn Bags:

He’s one homer behind the Fine Tooners in Home Runs. (Potential: +1)

He’s tied with the Moose Factory in RBI, and they are four RBI behind the Palukas and Nova. (Potential: +2.5)

In Batting Average, there are four teams between .2605 and .2580. All four of those have been switching places almost every day. The Bags are the last of the four because his hitters have been very cold. A hot streak would be devastating, to me. (Potenial: +3)

In Wins the Bags are tied with the Palukas and one behind the BBs. (Potential: +1.5)

In Saves the Bags are two saves ahead of the Tooners and the Peppermartins and three saves ahead of the Hackers. I had expected the Tooners and Peppers to both pass him weeks ago, and time is running out. (Potential: -1)

He has potential to fairly easily add seven points to his total. If he adds four of those I’m going to have a hard time bettering his score. At this point, it seems, it’s much more about what his team does than mine.

Should be fun.

Here are the current categories:

HITTING

Screenshot 2014-09-19 14.37.46

PITCHING

Screenshot 2014-09-19 14.38.02

LINK: Building a Major League Bullpen

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Former Fantasy Baseball Guide writer and former Brewers and Mariners front office hand Tony Blengino takes a look at the best bullpens in each league in each year since 2000, and what he discovers is something we only-league fantasy players have already figured out: Even though good relievers are important and can earn lots of fantasy value, non-closers are not a good place to invest draft dollars.

Analysis at Fangraphs well worth reading for what it tells us about player consistency, management intention, and how the two are not a straight line.

 

LINK: Did pitchFX Destroy Baseball?

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marcummoveDerek Thompson surveys the scientific literature of the strike zone today to demonstrate that fewer homers hit is bad for baseball, and that fewer homers are being hit today for two primary reasons:

1) Starting in 2006 stringent drug testing reduced the use of PEDs in the game.

2) Starting in 2006, the introduction of the pitchFX system increased the size of the strike zone, most notably by expanding the low part downward. Follow the link for more about pitchFX, a video and computer sensor system that tracks the speed and trajectory of every major league pitch.

It’s an interesting piece, especially the chart that shows how much better the umpires have gotten since their work could be not only reviewed, but reviewed against real objective data (not that it is always perfect).

As someone who, perhaps naively, argued in the early days of the homer boom that it looked to me like the real cause was a flattening strike zone, which meant hitters could look inside or outside and not so much up and down, the data strongly suggests this is at least partially true. One researcher says that the decline in homers since 2006 is 40 percent due to changes in the strike zone.

That’s a lot, and could be true, but I suspect we haven’t heard the last of this.

At the end of his piece Thompson lists other causes for a drop in offensive power, including defense (though this shouldn’t have much of an impact on homer rates) and changes in the baseball, but when he tries to remind us all of the shadow of PEDs use on this issue, he falters.

He writes:

Perhaps most importantly, the harsh 2006 rules against performance-enhancing drugs offer a compelling explanation for baseball’s dearth of power—although it’s odd that baseball’s minor leagues haven’t seen a similar decline in offensive performance since their own steroid policy was implemented.

The minor league drug policy is in many ways more stringent than the major league program. What the minor leagues don’t have is pitchFX and the absolutely best umpires.

Baseball_umpire_2004Oh, and to answer the question in the headline: pitchFX didn’t destroy baseball, it simply made the administration of the game more accurate and fair.

But if the low run environment proves to be persistent and unpopular, MLB can raise the bottom of the strike zone back to 2006 levels. That’s what they do. (It perhaps pertains that it was part of my argument about the power of the strike zone to change other outcomes, that umpires would be inclined to make this adjustment in an ad hoc way if the pitchers became too dominant, in order to help sustain the game’s equilibrium, which wavers but never cracks.)