Month: February 2014

ASK ROTOMAN: Mr. Consistent Choo vs. Wildman Gomez?

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Dear Rotoman:

Which of these 2 outfielders would you rather have for 2014?

  Average HR SB Runs RBIs
Player A .284 19 20 97 60
Player B .277 21 38 76 67

Player A is Shin-Soo Choo.  Player B is Carlos Gomez.  These statistics are their averages over the past 2 seasons. Gomez has the advantage, perhaps, but if you extend the timeline to four years Choo is clearly superior.

Shouldn’t we value consistency more?

“http://fantasyassembly.com/“

Dear Fantasy Assembly:

As you can see from the above signature, I cheated. You, Fantasy Assembly, didn’t write asking my advice. I happened upon your site today and was interested in your story about consistent players. Hat tip to Ray Flowers, too.

Not because you (and he) are necessarily wrong, but because I think if you frame the question differently (as they slyly do, in fact) you’ll see that you clearly don’t want consistent players.

Here’s why.

Let’s say everybody in your league knew the right price of every player. And let’s say that they price enforced so that every player was bid up to the exact right price. If every owner knew exactly what the player was actually going to, say you were drafting last year’s stats, then every team would pay $260 for $260 talent. You’re looking at a 12-way tie!

Of course, players aren’t predictable. They have good years, bad years, better and worse years. Sometimes it’s luck, good or bad, sometimes it’s injury or distraction. But in our experience some players are more consistent than others.

One guy may earn $24-$26-$27 over a three year period. An average of $26.

Another might earn $38-$15-$24, also an average of $26. Now, if the down year was due to injury, it would be tempting to say this guy is a $26 player, too. Or close.

On draft day, both players are taken for $25. A $1 bargain, their owners think, but what is likely to happen?

Mr. Consistency might lose a couple of dollars or earn a couple of dollars. Not bad, but fairly low impact.

On the other hand, the wildman could earn $15 or he could earn $37 or he could earn $27, depending on which year you land him. That obviously hurts if you catch the bad year, but championships are won with clusters of good years. A midseason look at how the Tout Wars teams who had last year’s biggest breakouts were doing showed that one big win was not enough to drive a team to the top.

So maybe spending par to buy consistent players to shore up your stats isn’t the right way to go. Maybe taking riskier guys, with a bigger swing of potential outcomes, gives you a better chance of winning. Sure, in years where it all goes wrong, you’ll get killed. But in the years when things go right, you’ll have a dominating team.

Now, Fantasy Assembly kind of nods to this way of thinking, when it suggests you buy some consistent players and then make your upside plays in addition. Which may be enough, but I’m just not sure. The logic suggests that if you get fair prices on the erratic guys, they’ll give you a better chance of winning than the consistent guys, who give you a better chance at fourth place.

Of course, one great challenge is figuring out who is truly inconsistent, but with potential (not on his way down).

Tilting wildly,
Rotoman

LINK: Tony Blengino Describes What An Area Scout Does

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Tony, a former Fantasy Baseball Guide contributor, has been writing for Fangraphs the past couple of months about how baseball organizations work.

All good stuff, and this story is clear as a bell about the role of an Area Scout. While touching on the Phillies and Ben Wetzler and their contretemps, the piece’s value is as a very human and touching description of the process of young players deciding to enter the draft or go to college.

The details are fascinating and revealing.

ASK ROTOMAN: You like Teixeira better than Papi?!?!?

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Dear Rotoman:

Fantasy BB Guide is the only place I’ve seen Teixeira rated higher than Ortiz. The others I’ve looked at have Ortiz higher, by a lot.

Larry Schechter

Dear Larry,

I was kind of surprised when I saw your post at pattonandco.com about Ortiz and Teixeira. I didn’t think my valuations were extreme. In the Guide I have Ortiz at $13 and Teixeira at $15. These are conservative bids on an old guy and a guy coming back from a wrist injury.

I don’t think they’re bids that buy either of them, and that’s okay. (I happen to have a $10 keeper on Ortiz in the American Dream League, so I’m hoping he can duplicate last year’s magic, but I don’t expect him to.)

texandpapi

After reading your post, Larry, I went to Wise Guy Baseball to see how much Gene disagreed with me. He has Ortiz at $15 and Teixeira at $12 (but points out that Ortiz should be expected to miss time this year, and Teixeira’s price will go up if he shows power during spring training), which is not really much different from my take.

But then I picked up the Baseball Forecaster and see what you’re getting at. They have Teixeira at an optimistic but reasonable (if he’s healthy) $17 for the coming year, and Ortiz at $27, which for some reason makes me want to say Kiss my grits!

I mean, as an Ortiz owner I’m hoping against hope that he can do it again. He earned $32 last year, so it isn’t out of the question. But then I think about last year’s auction. Ortiz was coming off a $21 season. going into his age 38 season. He’d averaged $25 a year the preceding three years, and he went for just $10.

Why? Because he’s an old DH, and he looked so seriously overmatched in 2009 that it is hard to put the images of his flailing out of one’s mind. That he hasn’t looked overmatched since counts as a little miracle. That his 2008 and 2009 problems were wrist based and similar to Teixeira’s now is certainly meaningful. But most importantly, David Ortiz is going to be 39 years old this year, and old guys with no defensive value do not decline slowly. They’re here, they produce, and when they stumble and fail to produce they are dragged out into the woods to die a noble death, after which they are eaten by bears.

I think it is possible that Ortiz could earn $27 this year. If he was 31 years old I would expect him to, but he’s far older than that and he’s very vulnerable. What I know is that he cost $10 in a keeper league with inflation in 2013. Bump him a few for his great season, but anybody who bids him up to the high teens is trying to beat back time. Good luck with that.

Now, I may have been overly optimistic on Teixeira. He is expected to recover from surgery and be as fine as a 34 year old coming off wrist surgery could be. Which means that maybe there will be a power problem, which would be a big problem because between the defensive shifts he faces and his demonstrable inability to hit for average, if Teixeira doesn’t have any power he’s a poor first baseman. But he is expected to recover, at some point.

The Yanks are slow rolling him into practices and games, supposedly to help his rehab, not because there are concerns about his health. There’s no way to read that except cautiously. If he was 100 percent he’d be playing. He’s not 100 percent, which doesn’t mean he won’t be ready come April. But it certainly doesn’t mean he will be.

So maybe I should have been more cautious about Teixeira. Maybe Gene got the ratio right. I’ll mess with this as we learn more. But what I’m sure of is that paying Ortiz as if he wasn’t going to be 39 years old this year. as if he didn’t qualify only at DH, is a mistake. Unless you think, because he’s going to be 39 years old in November, he’s a young 39.

Which has me wondering. How high will best-selling author Larry Schechter (see the ad in the sidebar, buy the book Winning Fantasy Baseball) go on the Cookie Monster in Tout AL a mere four weeks from now? He ended up wasting $6 on Teixeira in last year’s auction, but it didn’t hurt him (and was a worthy effort). Is he targeting Ortiz? Or just trying to stir up interest among the gullible?

Designated,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Take 2? Ellsbury, Kipnis, Choo or Justin Upton

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Rotoman!

I need help choosing my keepers. 5 keepers are allowed and my choices are:

The no brainers: Miggy, Goldschmidt and Adam Jones.

Take two: Ellsbury, Kipnis, Choo, Justin Upton.

My best pitchers are Lee and Chapman who I don’t think are worth a keeper spot.

“Hitting the Spot”

Dear Hitting:

In 5×5 I’ll agree that Chapman isn’t a keeper, but I’m not sure about Cliff Lee. Still, you know your league so if you think he’s not a good keep we’ll leave it at that.

I agree with the three obvious picks, though I’m not sure I’d count Jones as that much more a sure thing in the outfield as Ellsbury or Upton. There is a lot of love out there for Jones this year, given his solid seasons the last two years, and the fact that he is coming into his prime. Of course, he is also a swinging machine who has shown remarkable consistency the last few years, but his lack of walks and less than elite contact skills are going to catch up with him at some point. He’s perceived as money in the bank, but as his price goes up the weaknesses in his game become exposed. In any case, it’s hard to see him getting better at this point, which limits his value unless he’s a keeper.

Which means good for you.

Still, in my book he’s a $30 player this year. For the others I have Ellsbury at $29, Kipnis at $27, Upton at $26 and Choo at $24. The fact is that any of these guys is capable of putting up a $30+ season, so you’re looking at other factors when making your choice.

I like Ellsbury’s speed and he isn’t without power. He’s only 31 and though there is a history of injuries, there is also a history of recovery from injuries. I think he’s the clear choice this year.

Jason Kipnis is the other. You can argue whether he’s better than Upton and Choo, you might convince me that they have more upside, but given his speed, power and age—plus the fact that he’s a second baseman—he earns the edge in my book.

Does he earn the edge over Cliff Lee? Last year Kipnis earned $29, while Lee earned $34. The infielder turns 27 this year, while Lee is hitting 35. That is a reason to take the offense. Another is because you have better alternatives for No. 1 starting pitcher, and you don’t want to get locked into Lee. That’s a good reason, too.

But if you’re looking at straight ahead player value for the coming season, I think I would give the edge to Lee.

Pitching in,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: May I Please Have a Top 250 Please

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Dear Rotoman:

I appreciate your magazine ..love the experts picks and pans ..strategy ideas…etc. You guys set the bar. I would like to offer an addition to your magazine for ’15. How about a cheat sheet that is perforated that can be torn out to use at drafts? Or at least a centralized location  for rankings and dollar values for easier reference.

Thanks and continued good stuff!

“EZ Tear”

Dear EZ:

the250-copyThanks for writing. I got a fair number of requests for a Top 250 or Top 300 cheat sheet last year, enough that I seriously considered adding the feature this year. But after careful consideration I just couldn’t do it. Here’s why:

First off, there is the matter of format. What rules should apply to the list? The Big Prices in the Guide are a buyers guide for only-league Rotisserie players, but they have the virtue of identifying and ranking players for 12 and 15 team roto, and 8 and 12 team ESPN leagues, and 12 and 20 team Yahoo leagues. List players by position and you have a fair rank order.

But each of these leagues would have a somewhat different Top 250 because league depth changes the values of the rare talents at each position relative to the polloi, the easily replaced guys, which will change the ranking order a little, depending on the size of the league.

The categories matter, too, of course. Everybody has different scoring rules. I play in a 12-team AL 4×4 league, a 12-team NL 5×5 league that uses OBP, a 15-team mixed 5×5 league that uses OBP, and a 20 team Yahoo 5×5 league. Each of these leagues would have a different Top 250, even before we factor in the reserve and FAAB rules in each league (which also change values).

And then there is timing. The fact of the matter is that the 2014 Guide closed on December 9th, 2013. The rankings and values in the Guide, as in all the print magazines, are a valiant attempt to keep up with events before they happen. That’s why so much of the Guide is given over to the player profiles, which address each player’s past history and intrinsic talents.

Those life details are the elements that will help us make up our minds about each guy as the spring proceeds. I do my best to make the best values for all players in the Guide, but realistically we all have to know that much is going to change. Ryan Dempster is going to take a year off, Cory Leubke is going to have another TJ. Etc etc.

I use the Guide all through the preseason to remind myself about what we all said about players, to help me fine tune my player evaluations as the news changes a player’s role or team or makes me rethink his skills.

In this context, making a fixed Top 250 in December seems not only quixotic, but misleading. To tell you the truth, as we approach March 1st and the start of the exhibition season, it still doesn’t make much more sense to me, for all those category and format reasons. But enough people have asked that I think I’ve come up with a solution.

When I post the March 6th projections and prices update for owners of the Guide, I’m going to create some sort of one-page position-by-position ranking of players. This will be a one-page updated version of the Draft At A Glance charts in the Guide.

I will still suggest that you use the provided spreadsheet to create your own list of bid prices based on your league’s rules and your own evaluation of players. Isn’t that the fun of the game? But I’m happy to offer up mine at that point, for your entertainment pleasure.

Listing,
Rotoman

Ps. I’m reminded, however, of a day when the lists in the Guide were used in a real draft.

It was a draft Major League Baseball Advanced Media held to launch the MLB network. This was maybe 2000 or so. There were 10 or so experts (I was a columnist at mlb.com) and a few regular guy contest winners, drafting a bar on the Bowery in Manhattan that had deep pod-like booths for weekend night mating reason. I ended up sitting in a booth with Craig Leshen, one of the regular guys. Craig is a nice guy and he knew his stuff, but he also used the Draft at a Glance pages in the Guide throughout the draft to help him choose players.

Because of the need to take breaks throughout the draft, to film segments for the MLB network, it got late and patience started to get short. At some point MLBAM announced that the winner of this draft-and-hold league would win $2000, which got our attention.

Needless to say, perhaps (for why else would I be telling this story), the season started and Craig’s team got out to an enormous lead. One it did not relinquish all season (though it was telling how, over the course of the season, without transactions, the teams that got off to bad starts improved, and the teams that got off to good starts did worse, a prime example of regression to the mean).

For Craig, it was money and glory, just a little of the latter which reflected on the Fantasy Baseball Guide.

Patton $ Online: New Update is Out February 22nd.

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pattonlogoThis week’s update includes more batting order and pitching role info, a listing of the MLB Top 100 Rookies, updated projections and team assignments, and the ever evolving bid prices of Rotoman and Mike Fenger in 5×5, and Alex Patton in 4×4. Updates will continue through April 3.

Subscribers can update at the secret download page.

For more information about the software, spreadsheet and text files, visit software.askrotoman.com.

Revolutions Per Minute: A Bowling Story

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Mike Salfino is the Wall Street Journal’s extremely sharp sports analyst, with a focus on the numbers side of things. Usually he looks at baseball and football, casting a gimlet eye on weak analysis and demonstrating an enthusiastic love for the metric that reveals hidden value. Not only for fantasy players, but also fans of the game.

jasonbelmonte

He has a story today that brings his usual acuity to a somewhat surprising subject: Bowling.

It seems that a young bowler by the name of Jason Belmonte is turning the world of keglers over and over and over really fast by delivering the bowling ball with forward speed and a ton of spin. Mike explains it all here.

The one question I have. The ball is traveling 20 miles an hour down a lane that is 60 feet long. The travel time is measured in seconds, but the metric is scaled to a minute? It seems to me the number would be more manageable and meaningful if they scaled it to the second.

60 revolutions per second. Sounds good to me.

And here you get what the Wall Street Journal can’t offer: video.

http://youtu.be/CDvK6brkXGA

In The News: Lord Zola Proclaims 2-20-14

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Todd Zola and I were members of the alt.rec.fantasy.baseball usenet group back when George Clinton was president. We knew what was coming.

And now, today, umpteen years later, we both published charts linking draft order to auction prices, which seems to be the new orange. Make of it what you will.

I think Todd’s story does a fine job pointing out that using ADP for your mixed draft analysis is not enough. And I’m happy to embrace Todd’s perfectly independently concluded idea that draft value is akin to auction value.

FWIW Todd and I are talking about sharing data and working on some new ideas, too.

ASK ROTOMAN: Your Prices Seem Low!

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Dear Rotoman:

Your values for top players seem low. I am in an AL 4×4 12-team $260 keeper league. Its the keepers that inflate the value of the top players on draft day. Do you have a formula I can apply to your prices that takes into account how many players we are drafting and how many dollars are left (after keepers).

“Inflate Me”

Dear IM:

Yes! You are absolutely right. In a keeper league (4×4 or 5×5 doesn’t matter), where inexpensive players are carried over from one year to the next, you need to adjust the startup prices in the Guide or prices create yourself or you obtain elsewhere to account for these lower priced players.

For example, I allocate $3120 for 168 hitters and 108 pitchers in each 12-team AL and NL league, because that is what is going to be spent.

In your keeper league, however, you may have 50 hitter freezes and 20 pitcher freezes. What you need to figure out is how much money is going to be “saved” by your having these freezes.

To do this, list the players in your league who are going to be frozen. Then compare their keeper prices to the startup league prices from the Guide (or the updates). Total each column.

Let’s say the 70 keepers in your league are going to cost their teams $700 in keeper fees, but my price list says that they’re actually worth $1000. How is that going to affect your league’s prices in the auction?

1. To start we have $3120 in value.

2. In your league (after keepers) you’ll have $3120 minus $700 which equals $2420 in cash for buying the available players.

3. Based on the values in the Guide, this money is chasing $3120 minus $1000  in value, which equals $2120 total value in your auction.

4. Figure out an inflation rate by dividing the amount of cash you have by the amount of value ($2420/$2120) which equals 14 percent.

5. This extra money is available to be spent in your auction, which means that a player I gave a price of $35 might actually cost 14 percent more, or $40. (Multiply $35 * 1.14 = $40)

The important thing to recognize here is that teams that don’t take the inflation into account will stop bidding at $35 or $36, thinking they’re going over budget. The savvy player will know that a player’s par price is higher than that (in some leagues, depending on the keeper rules, it can be much much higher).

So, knowing your inflation rate is a big help while tracking your auction, but there are some confounding issues.

The 14 percent inflation is usually not distributed evenly. 

For one thing, the 14 percent increase in price of a $3 player doesn’t round up to $4, so what rounds down is distributed to more expensive players. This effect is echoed up the line, so that more money is distributed to more expensive players.

But it also makes strategic sense to manually allocate more bid money to more expensive players.

Would you rather pay $4 for a $3 player, or get the edge when budgeting of going to $41 on the player who rounds up to $40. The fact is that you might still get the same cheaper player and the more expensive one if your budget allocates the inflation money to the top group.

In which case the important number is not the 14 percent, but rather the $300 extra you have to pay the available player pool. Go through your list and bump the prices of top players you like the 14 percent, and then distribute the remaining money (which you didn’t give to those players who cost less than $12) to the players you fancy.

This is subjective, of course, so you’re going to want to be careful, but the effect of inflation is somewhat subjective, too. As an aggressive player you should make sure you err going after the players you value more than those you don’t. Your budgeting can help make those choices clearer in advance.

Another reason to allocate the money to more expensive players is because if you don’t spend on them early on, you may end up holding the bag in the end game by either not having spent all your money, or by being compelled to pour too much extra cash into the last available (and now wildly overpriced) talent.

It’s much more effective to spend an extra dollar on three or four expensive guys than to spend $5 on a $1 player at the end. Or leave $4 (or more) on the table, unspent.

The bottom line is that the proper tracking of inflation can give you a huge advantage over owners who either don’t think about it or try to wing it. Knowing whether owners are spending more or less than they should in the early rounds of the auction will help you decide whether to spend now or wait for bargains later.

Coldly,
Rotoman