Month: March 2008

Bill James shares his method to determine when a college basketball game is out of reach.

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Slate Magazine

A week or two ago I posted at pattonandco.com (Barry Bonds) that Bill James’ recent work seemed shoddy. The ideas weren’t fully thought through, and the execution was haphazard. But that was about his baseball work.

This story is good fun, even if Bill reveals himself as a Huckabee supporter, and has a bit of fun with figuring out who is going to win basketball games (which on a practical level might save someone wasted hours, depending on how many basketball games they watch).

The most excellent thing about this is that it doesn’t matter if the method works or not. Here is Bill James having some fun, and that’s fun for us. Bravo.

The Value Method 2008 – Elite Fantasy Baseball Strategy

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The Value Method 2008 – Elite Fantasy Baseball Strategy

I don’t think it’s cranky to wonder why the purveyors of the Value Method 08 don’t have any personal identification information on their site. They may be going for as clean an appearance as their site design, but if they really had knowledge to sell wouldn’t they be touting their experience, their math chops, their writing skills? Can it really all be about Google adwords?

If you’ve bought the Method I’d be curious about your reaction.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Florida Centerfield

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If you saw Cameron Maybin in his cup last year, and in Arizona later in the fall, you would not though he would be ready this summer to play in the major leagues. An awesome physical talent, yes, a ready major leaguer, no. But having traded away Miguel Cabrera, their star, the Marlins have to be inclined to put on display what they reaped.

Right?

Rotowire.com has him ranked No. 1, noting that he’s hit some opposite field homers with a decent average this spring. They have Alejandro De Aza, not a hitter but having a better spring, second, and Cody Ross, not a regular but he can hit, third. Finally, there is Alfredo Amezaga, the speedy supersub who is so far down the depth chart at each position you don’t even think about him. He’s averaged 350 AB the last two years, with a bunch of steals.

MLB.com has them ranked Ross, De Aza, and Maybin, which is why we’re doing this.

Rototimes.com likes Ross, Amezaga, De Aza, and has Maybin in Albuquerque.

Sandlotshrink.com digs ’em Maybin, Ross, De Aza.

Rotoworld.com has Maybin and De Aza and that’s it.

You can count on ESPN.com to get original. After Maybin and De Aza, yawn, they go for Brett Carroll, and then Ross. Carroll is coming off something of a Triple-A breakout season, but he’s old, his BB/K numbers aren’t so good, and, well, isn’t that enough?

BaseballHQ.com has Maybin with 55 percent of the PT, Ross with 30 percent, De Aza at 10 percent, and long lost speedster Eric Reed at 5 percent.

Yahoo.com is all over the Maybin, Ross sequence.

CBS Sportsline.com is kind of dull, with the Maybin, Ross, De Aza start, but then chimes in with Alexis Gomez, a country heretofore unheard from.

Going into this little survey I had Maybin for 299 fairly weak at bats. Lots of strikeouts, but a comforting number of walks and plenty of steals.

I had De Aza for a similar number of AB (297) but no power and no speed and no contact.

I had Cody Ross for a similar number, too, (266) because nobody is the front runner.

Remember, too, that these three aren’t limited to center field. With the injury prone Jeremy Heredia in left field and the ancient Luis Gonzalez in right, there will be blood out there.

Amezaga, who will play everywhere and no where (fish fans hope) gets 380 AB from me, splitting the difference of the past two years. I put Brett Carroll down for 96 AB, and Eric Reed for 194.

Indecision breeds a mess, that’s for sure. In spring training De Aza has 42 PA, Carroll has 38, Maybin has 35, Ross has 38, Gomez has 29 and Eric Reed didn’t make the cut.

I’m going to cut Eric Reed to nothing and leave the rest of them right where they are. My guess is that neither De Aza nor Maybin can hold the job this year, and Ross will end up with the most AB. But with 10 days left it’s better to remember what they cannot do then to underestimate their PT and create the illusion there is something they can do.

My prediction is that Maybin and De Aza each get a quarter of a season to show what they can’t do, and probably Cody Ross gets the most playing time.

PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

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This was in the Baseball Prospectus newsletter, which comes via email every day.

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2008 AL Stolen Base Leaders, by PECOTA Projected SB

Player, Team, SB

Freddy Guzman, TEX, 37
Carl Crawford, TBA, 35
Brian Roberts, BAL, 35
Chone Figgins, LAA, 33
Bradley Coon, LAA, 33

What you’ve got to like about PECOTA is that it finds stuff. Bradley Coon was a 25 year old in Double-A last year who stole 24 bases in 36 attempts. The Angels’ outfield is already crowded, as is their infield. This slap-hitting oldie with moderate speed seems an unlikely guy to see any major league playing time.

Freddy Guzman is no longer with the Rangers. He was copped in the Rule 5 draft last December and is hoping to snag the job as Curtis Granderson’s backup this summer in Detroit. He’s a real burner whose only problems are that he’s had a hard time making it to the majors, and hasn’t hit in his two brief trials. He’s got a decent eye but no power, so his game rests on his ability to steal first and then second.

The odds of either Guzman or Coons ending up in the Top 5 in the AL at this point are laughable, which is why I like BP’s picks. If they alert you to a player with potential who is for some reason off the radar, they’ve done their job.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Rangers Closer

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There are a number of tenuous bullpen situations this spring, but entering the last two weeks of camp none is more unsettled than the closer order in Texas. For the record, I have CJ Wilson projected for 7 saves, Eddie Guardado with 14, Joaquin Benoit with 10 and Kazuo Fukumori with 3. This is major ass covering that probably makes things seem more clear cut than they are. Let’s see how the other see it.

Yahoo.com says Wilson, Benoit, Guardado, Fukumori.

MLB.com has Guardado and Wilson as co-closers, backed up by Benoit. Fukumori ranks down their list.

Rototimes.com has Guardado and Wilson as co-closers, with Benoit and Frank Francisco as setup guys. Fukumori isn’t listed.

Rotoworld.com has them listed Wilson, Fukumori, Benoit, Guardado.

SandlotShrink.com has Wilson listed as the closer, and Guardado, Benoit and Fukumori as the setup guys.

BaseballHQ.com gives Wilson 70 percent of the saves, Guardado and Benoit 10 percent each and Fukumori five percent. The remaining five percent is out there, waiting.

Rotowire.com reports that CJ Wilson, who has been hurting this spring, is healthy, while Eddie Guardado’s bum knee didn’t help him make his case to be closer when Wilson was down. Still, they’re listed as co-closers. Benoit is the setup guy, though he’s been hurt this spring, too, with Fukumori behind him.

Sportsline.com has them listed as Wilson, Benoit, Guardado, and Fukumori.

All of which tells us that Wilson is probably the closer if his arm is okay (he was hurting with biceps tendinitis), and it’s anyone’s guess who will take his place if he can’t go (or if he fails, which I think his walk rate last year suggests could happen).

Guardado’s numbers last year don’t look so hot, but most of the damage came around his DL time. He finished strong and while that earn him a ringing endorsement because of his age and the wear and tear he’s endured, he’s got more potential than you might think. I like Benoit but he’s not going to move ahead of the other two unless they go down. And Fukumori is the wild card. A successful closer in Japan, he’s got the head for the job.

The mistake here wouldn’t be taking any few of these guys, but paying more for them combined than you would for the Texas closer. If it looks like Wilson’s the one he’s likely to go for closer money. Backing him up with the other guys, who will all have value in 4×4 leagues, will probably each cost you a little premium because of the chance that they’ll end up in the closer’s seat. And you’ll end up paying too much for the Texas closer and some setup guys.

But for cheap? Get on ’em all. You just might win the lottery.

The Patton $ on Disk 2008 page

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The Patton $ on Disk 2008 page

The newest  updates to the P$oD08 have been posted. These include mostly fixed team and league data, updated projections, and bid prices from Alex Patton (4×4), Mike Fenger (5×5), and me, Rotoman, Mixed league 12 team.

You can use the program, which runs incredibly fast on all Windows machines (including those Intel Macs that have Windows), or you can choose to use the accompanying text and Excel files.

In either case you get bid lists and up to date projections for all draftable players this season. And free updates through the week after opening day.

Ask Rotoman: Head-to-Head How-To

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Rotoman…As always I appreciate your advice….I have been doing rotisserie leagues for a long time now, and have always had pretty good success…however, the past two seasons I have been in two head-to-head leagues and have finished poorly both times…

Is there a different strategy or different players you target in head-to-head leagues? My teams always seem to have a good run for about 5-6 weeks in the middle of the season where everyone is hitting and my team dominates, but my teams always seem to go through an end-of-year slump and lose when it actually counts (in the end of the season and the playoffs)…

Help,
“Gimme H2H”

Dear Gimme:

The only Head to Head game I’ve played, apart from Strat-o-matic, is Scoresheet, so I’m no expert. Strat and Scoresheet are great games, but they use different rules than roto and points based fantasy leagues, so the H2H doesn’t really translate.

While I’m not expert, I host a discussion board that is frequently visited by some really smart and talented fantasy players who, it just so happens, recently started talking about H2H. You can find the thread here.

One thing I know for sure because I studied it in regards to fantasy football, which SteveP affirms in his encyclopedic posts at the end of the thread: Streakiness doesn’t matter. Collect the best aggregate stats you can and be done with it. Your results will rise or fall depending on how lucky you were. The H2H format increases hugely the luck factor in the final results, but there isn’t anything you can do about that.

You want to get the most stats, and this thread at the Ask Rotoman Discussion Board will help you get them.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Decoding the Depth Charts: Rockies 2B

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I at least in part wrecked two fantasy teams (Tout Wars NL, Rotoman’s Regulars) because of too much love for Marcus Giles. Not that there didn’t used to be a reason for admiration and optimism, but last year he languished for no apparent reason and you have to question his mental conditioning as much as anything. Slumps happen, but you have to stand up to them. Injuries have hurt him in the past, but this seemed different.

When he signed with the  Rockies I assumed he’d be the front runner for the second base job in Colorado, but it is increasingly obvious that he’s not even the second choice there. So I’m giving up. Let’s look at who reigns on the depth charts:

Rotowire.com likes Jeff Baker, Jayson Nix, Clint Barmes, Giles, Omar Quintanilla and, finally, Ian Stewart.

MLB.com goes Nix, Quintanilla, Stewart, Barmes, Giles. Baker is listed as the backup at first and third base.

ESPN.com goes Nix, Baker, Giles, Stewart, Quintanilla.

Sandlotshrink.com picks Nix, Giles, and someone new. Meet Matt Kata.  (They have Stewart as a backup at third base, Baker as a backup in the outfield.)

Rototimes.com comes through again! Giles, Nix, Stewart, Quintanilla, with Baker backing up in the outfield.

USAToday.com sez: Nix, Giles, Quintanilla, with Stewart backing up third base and Baker behind six guys in the outfield.

and finally, the finely tuned baseballHQ.com, which lists players with percentage of playing time. They like Baker (40), Nix (30), Giles (20), Stewart (15), Quintanilla (5) and Barmes (5).

My projections before I started this escapade gave Nix 200 PA, Baker 375, Giles 330, Stewart 125, Quintanilla 100 and Matt Kata 125. Barmes got 335, mostly based on the idea that he’d be traded.

1,000 PA for the other guys is a little too much considering that Stewart will play some third base, Baker will play some first and outfield, Quintanilla or Barmes will see some time at SS and somebody has to play in Colorado Springs. So let’s go through the possibilities…

Jayson Nix had a pretty good year in Colorado Springs last year and he’s a good second baseman. That has to count for something here. I don’t think he’s a major league regular, but he does enough to hold onto a job when there isn’t a better alternative.

Jeff Baker hasn’t much hit righties, which is a problem, and he isn’t really a second baseman, working on the position this past fall in the AFL.  He might make the Rockies but I don’t see him winning this job.

Marcus Giles was a good second baseman once upon a time, and he used to be able to hit for some power, get on base, and run. He isn’t so old that his time should be up. He’s been quiet but effective in spring training.

Stewart, Quintanilla, Barmes and Kata are all backups at this point. There is some hope that Stewart will end up being a major league regular but he’s not there yet.

Who do I like? I think Nix will win the job, will fail to impress with his bat, while Giles–having worked hard on his physical condition and attitude (I don’t know that this is true, but how could he not given how awful he was last year)–will eventually get a shot and win the job for the rest of the year. Except that he’ll then, after I’ve blown all my FAAB on him, wreck his hammy. Bah!

Ask Rotoman: 10 Valuable AL Guys Not on a ML Roster on Opening Day — Maybe

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Hi, My draft is on this Sunday & it is an American League ONLY draft. You have been of much help in the past & I was wondering if you could again help me out AGAIN? Could you give me a list of 10 players that will have an impact this year in fantasy baseball that will not be on a opening day roster? “Minor Key”

Dear Minor:

I have no idea if I can give you 10 from the American League, and even though you don’t care about the National League, I think I should list some of them, too. Tomorrow. For now, let’s go through the AL rosters and see what we come up with:

AL

Yorman Bazardo had a good run with the Tigers last year. His father died just as Spring Training was getting under way and he’s behind in his work. He’s a control pitcher whose rates haven’t changed dramatically as he advanced, which is a good indicator of major league success. Too bad he doesn’t have a better punch out. Okay, I admit it, I like his name.

Clay Buchholz on the other hand has an arm, plus he has a no hitter already. You have to like that. The Red Sox trip to Japan creates interesting possibilities for roster management and I’d be lying if I said I’d thought them all through. Buchholz is the youngster and at the back of the rotation, if he’s in the rotation. It wouldn’t be a surprise if was sent down for a few weeks at the start of the season.

Anthony Swarzak has a great arm but is a little lacking in experience. He’s certainly not going to start the season in Minnesota, but depending on how things work out he could end up there. The Twins are not super aggressive with promotions, usually, but Swarzak is further along than most. There is a chance he’ll get a shot this year, and that means he could contribute.

Kevin Mulvey went to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal. Unlike Swarzak, he didn’t spend 50 games on the bench last year after testing positive for recreational drugs. He’s not as dominant an arm as Swarzak and doesn’t have near the ceiling, but if he doesn’t make the Twins rotation out of camp he’s likely to get a shot at it before Swarzak does.

Gio Gonzalez struck out 185 guys in 150 Double-A innings last year, and while he walked a fair number of guys (57) he kept the ball in the park, didn’t allow many hits, and got the job done. He’s way young and the A’s aren’t in a big rush to hurry him along, but stuff happens and he’s close to ready.

Nick Adenhart doesn’t have Gonzalez’s heat, but he’s got a well-rounded set of pitches and he’s learning to use them. He’ll start the year in the minors, but if anything disrupts the Angels’ rotation he’s likely to get a trial. Good luck.

On the hitting side…

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a lot of major league at bats, but he’s not a good catcher and the Rangers went and signed Ben Broussard to play first base. His bat should work in the major leagues now, but it makes sense for the Rangers to send him down to either get better as a backstop or tackle a new position.

Carlos Quentin has been slow coming back from shoulder surgery, and Jerry Owens will almost certainly be the White Sox left fielder on opening day. This opens up the possibility that the Sox could option Quentin to get some regular playing time. While an extended spring training gig is an option, Quentin’s not really hurt badly enough for the DL. Let him play!

Wladimir Balentien has a double and a homer in his three major league plate appearances. He’s shown good patience and an aggressive bat in his career overall. The Mariners clearly think he needs some more time, though he made big strides last year. Presumably they think their pennant run this year will be helped more by Ibanez and Wilkerson, but when they drop out of contention Balentien will be the guy who comes up and impresses. That’s my prediction.

Evan Longoria is not only a hitter but also a first rate defensive player. He’s having a big spring, but the Rays may decide to have him start the year in Triple-A because he’s young and perhaps they don’t want to start his career clock and salary just yet. But he’s ready now, and will be the top Rookie prospect not in the AL at the start of this year if he doesn’t start the season in St. Pete.

Brandon Wood doesn’t have a place to play right now and should start the season in Triple-A. He’s got huge power, but he has struck out an alarming amount of the time in the minors. Some scouts think that’s going to be a problem, others say he’ll be fine. There’s a good chance he isn’t going to get a real chance in the majors this year, but an injury or trade or two could open up an opportunity mighty quick. And when he plays he’ll hit home runs. Fer sure.

That’s 10. I’m sure I missed some good ones. Like Luke Hochevar, who is going to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s not really ready anyway. David Price was the No. 1 in last year’s draft, and is supposed to be ready soon. Jeff Clement will start the season playing in Tacoma, but if the Mariners trade Johjima after they fall out of the race he could be the starter at any time. That’s 13. I’m out of here.