How much is Matsuzaka worth?

The Hardball Times

As usual, David Gassko does a great job breaking down the components. But, of course, I have quibbles. . .

It isn’t clear to me why there is little chance of Matsuzaka breaking down. It seems to me some significant portion of the risk is that the pitcher breaks down, no matter how convincing the history is.

He doesn’t address the explosion of revenue that accrues when you win. Tampa Bay might generate more revenue winning 80 games than 70, but that bump is tiny compared to the bump you get (I’m assuming) going from 87 to 97 wins and winning the World Series.

The risk in this scenario is different than the one for a team trying to compete (rather than win the whole enchilada).

With so much money in the owners’ pockets it’s hard not to think that the concept of “value” is pretty much dead.

This Week’s Ask Rotoman

Major League Baseball : Fantasy : Fantasy

I’ve been traveling some of Appalachia’s blue highways this week, which has brought the blog to a complete stop, though Ask Rotoman appeared Wednesday as usual. Will Travis Hafner sit again during interleague play? How much difference does it make having Roy Oswalt rather than Mark Buehrle? How do you sort our oddball categories and pick players who suit them? Clemens? Podsednick? Betemit?

Tout Wars – Battle of the So-Called Experts

Tout Wars – Battle of the Experts

Tout Wars is big this year, in large part because of Sam Walker’s book Fantasyland. Sam’s outsider caricatures of his Tout Wars opponents seemed to ruffle some feathers, but these birds all liked the attention, which is why the draft was held in a conference room at a Times Square hotel, a huge step away from the year we drafted in Steve Moyer’s baseball shrine of a basement in Pennsylvania.
I drafted in the NL section Sunday, along with reps from Creative Sports, Mock Draft Central, Wise Guy Baseball, TQ Stats, Ultimate Fantasy Sports, Roto Junkie, RotoTimes, FantasyGuru, RotoWorld, BaseballHQ, Rotowire, and Fantasybaseball.com.

The only interesting thing that happened, as far as I’m concerned, is that I spent $11 on Colorado minor league DL candidate Ryan Shealy. This was one of those auction moments. I blame the NL. It’s really a sucky league. I kept not bidding on such talents as Jose Cruz and Jacque Jones beyond their projected value because, well, I really didn’t want those guys.

But there is such pervasive mediocrity in the NL that once you get beyond the top couple of stars at each position, it’s a wide sargasso sea of interchangeable pieces, some of whom are bound to pay off—but how can you tell?

You can’t. The teams that went Stars and Scrubs have an advantage, I think.

You can follow the link to see what we did. But back to Shealy. At the moment Shealy was nominated (by me) Lombardo, Zaleski and I had far more money than any of the other teams, and there wasn’t much talent left. I decided that Shealy, even if he only played a few months, was by far the most differentiated and valuable player. So, I went and got him. I was appalled that Lombardo kept raising me, but at that point in the draft it seemed like the time to commit, or end up with money at the end.
I subsequently got all the players I targetted, so from a strategic point of view I did the right thing. But I’m not sure my judgment that Shealy was the guy I wanted/needed was sound.

Auction is a great way to play this game because it opens up all these various pathways to success and failure. I look at the teams and I think the teams that went Stars and Scrubs (notably John Hoyos’s RotoJunkie squad and Jason Pliml’s Mock Draft Central) did best. That’s because the NL is so devoid of talent.

But if Shealy’s shoulder heals and he gets 350 AB in the OF, or if Helton’s back crumbles and he gets plenty of AB at 1B, I’m not surrendering.

(This story is a warning that expert league drafts are good fun to follow, and may give you an idea of what might happen in your league, but the exigencies of the situation are way more important than anything as pedestrian as projected values. Which is how Hector Luna ended up going for $8. But that’s the same story, just a different verse.)

Pro Baseball Newspaper Articles Archive

Pro Baseball Newspaper Articles Archive

The implementation is far from perfect, but if you have a spare 20 or 30 years and strong eyes you’ll find lots to chew on at this site, which claims to have 60,000 articles from baseball’s history. These turn out to be pdfs that on my computer, at least, are readable, but not pleasantly so. If you’re looking for newspaper writing about a particular moment in baseball’s pre-internet history, there’s lots here that as far as I know isn’t available elsewhere.

Fun with Brandon

Yahoo! Sports – Fantasy – One-Man Mock Draft

Brandon Funston is a fantasy veteran and I have no doubts about the preseason utililty for fantasy players with time on their hand to have a One-Man Mock Draft. Thinking through the different processes each team owner would have to go through to make his optimal pick has got to be good exercise, and will certainly help you familiarize yourself with all the draftable players.

But Funston’s talk about “runs” is pretty silly. The whole concept of the run is based on teams going all emotional because they fear all the good players at a position will be taken before their next pick. So they take a lesser player in the run rather than the best available player. When you’re drafting by yourself the psychological pressure shouldn’t play a role, and if you try to simulate it you’re likely to do yourself a disservice.

The other thing he says is that he designed his mock to reflect this year’s tendencies to draft pitchers later and more hitters earlier. Needless to say, if you can pick up Jake Peavy (3rd), Rich Harden (6th) and Roy Halladay (6th) in rounds 3 to 6, the right way to play your mock draft is to do it. When there is a lot of pitching and prices fall, as seems to be happening this year (as it did last), load up.