Sabermetrics and the Twins

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Aaron Gleeman liked this story today on Facebook, and it’s a delightful romp showing how baseball’s statistical revolution is earworming Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire.

The thing I didn’t know and wonder about is the assertion that Michael Lewis’s first choice for a Moneyball team was the Twins. That seems, um, sick, in the, um, sick way. Whatever.

The reason to read this story is because some of the players talk about their process in a less than canned way, which is bracing. Okay, a little bracing.

Jason Collette, Monitoring the Small Sample

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Jason has an excellent post over at Rotowire, called Monitoring the Small Sample, that makes the obvious but excellent point that:

“All change has a starting point. If a pitcher’s strikeout rate needs 150 batters faced to become meaningful, it does not mean we ignore plate appearances 1 to 149. Rather, it means we watch the player’s process during that span to see if something has changed or if the improved numbers are another example of statistical randomness. Last season, Fernando Rodney faced just 42 batters in April but had seven saves and a 0.87 ERA.”

And what fantasy player wasn’t buying Rodney as soon as they possibly could, despite the universal belief that he would self destruct at any moment? Every fantasy player was buying. Not always happily but out of necessity.

But if we know certain things about a player’s or team’s approach, maybe that helps identify one of those starting points. Jason says:

April served as a starting point for the changes Rodney made in his delivery and his position on the rubber that led to better short-term results that eventually became better long-term results. Discussing, tweeting, or writing about such changes to deliveries, positioning of hands and feet, or swings is not confirmation bias of statistical recency as much as it is looking for starting points for change.

The bottom line for fantasy players in deep leagues is that we don’t have time for confirmation. If there is a whisper of hope to improve we jump on it, not always prudentially. But in shallower leagues the questions are different. Knowing that small sample success might be fueled by a change in approach or situation might get you out ahead of the crowd.

Note: Rotowire is a pay service and if you’re not a subscriber I don’t know what the link will get you. I pay for Rotowire and wholeheartedly recommend it.

Bad K’s American Dream League Team

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At dinner after our annual American Dream League draft, Hacker owner Steve Levy asked me if Tout Wars was tougher than our neighborhood league, the American Dream League, which started in 1981. The ADL is not an experts league, but between Alex Patton, Les Leopold, Peter Golenbock, and moi, I doubt any league has gotten more books and magazines published about fantasy baseball over the years. And that is a disservice to the creds of the other members, who have written professionally about baseball for longer than the league’s 33 year tenure.

But therein lies the crux of my answer. The ADL is as chock full of canny baseball and fantasy analysts as any league, but the pace is different. In the ADL we go seven rounds deep on reserve, and no one struggles to come up with viable names, but during the auction the ADL lopes, with plenty of patter, recaps, and counting of the money. The Tout Wars auctions are played at a gallop. And time matters, because time pressure undermines those with poor organization.

That, of course, is one way to look at it. The other is to say that an AL only auction that takes six hours to complete is full of time for chatter, banter, badinage and riposte. It also offers plenty of time to consider what’s going on and try to adjust and beat it. In an auction where the bidding proceeds quickly there’s plenty of pressure and opportunities to make mistakes. In this slower format, mistakes may be made, but it’s also possible to discern trends and strategies and counter them.

Which leads us to my 2013 American Dream League team.

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The Final Weekend

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The penultimate software update came out last Thursday, and there haven’t been any major suprises since then, but I’m going to post notes on some of the little things that might change your draft.

Khris Davis: Has made the Brewers after a big power-hitting spring. He’s not a huge prospect, but he is coming off a very productive minor league year and a robust spring training. I think he’s moved up into the top of the $1 or $2 outfielders in NL only leagues.

Steven Pearce: He’s also had a huge spring, but unlike Davis who is 25, Pearce is 30. Not that he can’t be productive for a spell, but his issues are with major league pitchers (not the mix he saw in ST). He may be a worthwhile pickup if you have a hole, but don’t count on him to get playing time or hit regularly.

Johan Santana: Is having shoulder surgery and may never pitch again. And certainly not this year.

Colin Cowgill: Has been given the leadoff spot and job in center field for the Mets. I’m very dubious that he’ll be able to hold it, too many strikeouts, not enough power, but he doesn’t have any shut down opposition.

Pablo Sandoval: Is hurting still. These spring training issues often go away when the games count, but I’m not buying him. There’s simply too much downside smoke to ignore.

JD and Fernando Martinez: JD is recalled, Fernando goes on the DL. Neither has shown he’s a big league regular, but Fernando has the better pedigree. Both are still young and should not be ignored.

Steve Delabar: Manager John Gibbons has said he’ll get saves if Casey Janssen needs to be rested and he’s a better matchup than Sergio Santos. That will probably send his price up some, but his skills will make him a plus even if he doesn’t get a lot of saves.

Mike Carp: Made the Red Sox and could see time at DH with David Ortiz’s problems. Carp is a good hitter but a defensive liability.

Ryan Sweeney: Did not make the Red Sox.

Tyler Colvin: The Rockies for some reason demoted Colvin. It’s hard to see what the talented hitter with limited contact skills can learn in more Triple-A time, but there you go. He’ll be back and instead of costing $12 will be a waiver pickup, and much more dangerous.

The Solid, the Shifty and the Fungible

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[Cue Ennio Morricone music here.]

The long and fun Tout Wars weekend is over. Drafts were held, summaries will be written (and posted at toutwars.com), and eventually games will be played. At no other time will more people write the words, “I like my team,” more often.

You can find the spreadsheet with all the leagues’ results here.

I spoke on Sirius XM after the auction and was asked about some of the players I bought, and while I was talking I couldn’t help thinking that this was for the most part a boring draft. Relentlessly and with few exceptions players (even starting pitchers this year) went for something close to my bid price. I, for the most part, bought the guys whose price stopped at or below the price I’d put to paper for them. My strategic goal was to buy stats and to acquire risky guys who might make an impact.

The goal for every fantasy team is to establish a powerful enough base that the breakout guys put you in contention to win. That’s what might happen out of the draft, but the real work is massaging the roster all season long to maximize in each category. Some combo of work, good timing and utter luck are what puts teams over the top. But first, they have to get into contention.

Here are my purchases with some notes on the players and their prices. As you’ll note, mostly boring, but I like my team.

THE SOLID

Rob Brantly ($7, $6) He’s the cleanup hitter! On a really crummy team! He’s got some power and shouldn’t crush my BA, and has the potential to do more.

Joey Votto (My Bid Price $37, I paid $37) Hey, he’s Joey Votto. Is he not a power hitter anymore? I don’t believe that, but if it’s true he will then be the most awesome hitter for average ever. There is the chance for profits here, he earned in the 40s in 2010, but mostly I want him to stay healthy all season.

Ryan Zimmerman ($27, $27) Third base is a ghost town once you get past the top five, and with Headley’s injury even he’s suspect. So, a solid producer at his price is a win. Every other third baseman who cost more than $10 exceeded his bid price, demonstrating the league’s sensitivity to getting shut out at the hot corner.

Zack Cozart ($12, $14) Having three $25+ guys at the time, I didn’t feel comfortable pushing Starlin Castro and extra buck. He went at my bid price. And Jimmy Rollins went for one under. As I pushed Cozart $2 past my price I regretted not going the extra dollar for the much better players, but he was the last full time SS available. His job is secure and even if he isn’t the best hitter in the world he has a bit of power/speed production. A bit.

Hunter Pence ($22, $21) One of the places where the Touts try to save money is in the midlevel outfielders, the guys who are not dominant either in power or speed. Pence is one of those guys, and capable of having a bigger year than this bid pays for.

Angel Pagan ($21, $19) Another Giant outfielder? Yes, but one who runs a lot. Guys like Cameron Maybin went for $25. Maybin’s like Pagan but younger with a worse batting average.

Denard Span ($15, $14) Another boring outfielder at the slightest of discounts, but Span has never had a season like the best he seems like he might be capable of. On a new team, despite a weakish spring, one hopes for more than what he’s done in the past. But if he does just that, I’m okay with it.

Scott Hairston ($7, $4) Once the prices drop below $10 the comparison doesn’t mean much. Hairston earned $18 last year in 350 AB. It wouldn’t take a lot to get him more playing time in Chicago (or released for that matter), so consider him cheap and likely to earn a bit of a profit with the chance of something more.

Yorvit Torrealba ($1, $1) A catcher in Colorado backing up a guy who is a bad catcher. Yorvit has some productive years behind him, and having taken a catcher who will start the year in the minors, I was looking for a puncher’s chance with a catcher in dollar days. Hello son.

Cliff Lee ($28, $26) I’ve knocked my starting pitching bids down quite a bit in prep for this draft, and was glad to see that pitcher prices were generally on par. Any of the top six or seven starters will earn out, unless he gets hurt. I chose Lee for no particular reason.

Zack Greinke ($21, $19) Maybe he was a little cheaper because of injury concerns, though he appears to be healthy at this point. He’s in a good ballpark in a lineup that costs a lot. Irresistible.

Mike Minor ($14, $12) I would have gladly gone to $14 on Minor, who seemed to put it all together in the second half last year. CBS and LABR landed in the $12 range, so I’m not claiming this is a bargain, but given the potential upside I was happy.

Marco Estrada ($10, $11) He’s a guy for whom my projection outpaces my bid price. He throws strikeouts and homers and if he can rein in the one he could have special upside.

Lance Lynn ($11, $11) Like Estrada, plenty of strikeouts. He’s kind of the opposite of Minor, in that he stumbled in the second half, but was overall just fine. While it would be great if all three of Minor/Estrada/Lynn were solid this year, you have to figure one will fail. But which one? That’s why I have three.

THE SHIFTY

Travis D’Arnaud (Minors, $5) One can argue that the money spent on D’Arnaud and Matt Adams could have been better spent buying Starlin Castro rather than Zack Cozart. I won’t argue with that, but once the barn door is open you have to adjust. I didn’t buy Castro. D’Arnaud isn’t a lock for the big leagues this year, but indications are he’ll get a chance come June or July. He’s a free-swinging power hitter, who may get off to a slow start offensively, but will quickly outearn his price here if he has any success at all. If he turns into Devin Mesoraco this year, I’ll be disappointed, and not all that surprised.

Matt Adams ($5, $5) He may or may not make the team at the start of the season, and doesn’t seem to have a regular job if he does, but they’re not going to let him languish. He’s too potent a hitter for that. Is he a big league star hitter? Borderline at that level, for sure, but he will hit for power if he gets the playing time. The other guys available at this price were Gaby Sanchez and Todd Helton. Either could be better, but neither could be much better.

Dee Gordon ($9, $8) As spring training winds down it looks like Gordon could end up marginalized despite Hanley Ramirez’s injury. My thought was that in 100 AB in the next month or so Gordon could steal 15 bases, but I paid too much given his shortcomings as a hitter and the possibility he’ll end up in Triple-A later this week. My fingers are crossed to ward off buyer’s remorse.

Jonathan Broxton ($5, $5) On my sheet I still had Broxton down at $10, his pre-Aroldys Chapman-as-closer price, but I didn’t pay up here out of confusion. He was my last buy and I had $5 left. He surely would have cost $3 if I hadn’t nominated at $6 (whoops, tiny print on the spreadsheet, adjusted down a buck) and spent my last $5. He was the best available pitching choice at that point by far, as a Closer in Waiting.

Kyuji Fujikawa ($9, $8) If I had bought Alfonso Soriano, who I dropped out too soon on because I wanted Carlos Quentin who was then bid out of my price range, I wouldn’t have had money for Fujikawa. But I did. I actually preferred Steve Cishek, but when he was bid up to his price I had to shift my sights to Fujikawa. Chris Liss spent $8 on Marmol (and bid $7 on Fujikawa, saying one of us is going to be glad he couldn’t bid more or didn’t have to). Given the situation, I’m fine with this, but it is no discount and is certainly risky. And I would have preferred Michael Fiers, who went for $7 (but might have gone higher because Derek Carty had the scratch at that point), but decided to get it settled earlier.

Drew Storen ($6, $2) Again, in the endgame the expected bid price doesn’t mean much. But Storen throws strikeouts and has a history as a closer, making him the Closer in Waiting (and likely to vulture a few as well).

THE FUNGIBLE

Daniel Descalso ($4, $3) I wanted Jordany Valdespin or Donovan Solano, but Valdespin’s price spiraled and when Descalso was nominated before Solano I pounced rather than being shut out. That’s how weak second base is. When Solano went for $2 I was full of regrets and remorse. Still am.

Tyler Moore ($2, $2) He was the best power threat (tee hee) on board at this point in the draft, with no clear path for any playing time at all except as DH during interleague.

Chris Capuano ($1, $1) Coming off a fine year, but lacking a clear role in the Dodgers rotation, let’s call him Best Available Arm and hope some team in a good ballpark that needs a pitcher trades for him.

THE RESERVES

Gregg Dobbs ($3, reserve) Because T’Arnaud is starting in the minors, and I drafted Torrealba, his replacement, into my utility slot, I wanted the best available hitter for some power with a big league job to fill that hole. That’s Dobbs, probably, which isn’t saying a lot. Can’t have too many Marlins.

Kolton Wong (minors, reserve) If he’s called up he’ll have more value than Daniel Descalso fer sure.

Alex Castellanos ($2, reserve) I was going for the best young hitter who might make an opening day team, looking for offensive options.

Freddie Galvis ($1, reserve) When I saw the Phillies play in spring training, Freddie led off the game with a sharp single to left field that he turned into a double. The crowd of Phillies phans went crazy. It turns out they love him after seeing him play sort of regularly last year. I was looking for another shot at 2B.

FOR A FEW DOLLARS MORE (a conclusion)

When a league plays the game as tightly as this one does your options are limited. I’d targeted Domonic Brown after seeing him play in spring training, but his success meant everyone knew what I knew, and Phil Hertz bumped him a buck or two past my price. Early on I might have pushed, but at that point my budget was stretched.

Mike Gianella had the most interesting draft, spending just $34 on pithcing. The problem with that is that his pitching isn’t very good, but he does have a lot of hitters at decent prices. He’s got talent, now he needs to rearrange it.

Lenny Melnick and Phil Hertz were the reason I stopped targeting guys. They both have their buys, and aren’t afraid to push their budgets to get them. When you collide you usually lose, one way or the other. I’d hoped to pick off Julio Teheran for a few bucks, but Phil took him all the way to $8. Playing agnostically, a phrase I think originates with Liss, let’s you find the bargains where they fall. For Gianella that meant on offense. For me, I worked to find them on both sides of the aisle.

The danger is that I will confuse bargains for my overreaches. That may be what happened with Dee Gordon, D’Arnaud and Adams, or those could each turn out to be a robust embrace of risk that pays off. I’m looking forward to finding out.

Random Roster Notes March 21, 2013

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AL

Oakland’s Hiroyuki Nakajima is having a horrible spring. I had a fairly aggressive projection for him, based on him being a full-time player this year, but he’s slipping fast and doesn’t seem likely to be a starter coming out of camp. Handicapping NPB players is more art than science at this point, especially since the league changed the baseballs a couple years back. What samples we had up ’til then became much less useful. But the other issue is the one of short-term failure or success. Nakajima may actually have all the talent implied by the projection, but his slumping month could deprive him of regular PT. I’ve trimmed him to 250 AB for now, but kept his offensive rates intact. This doesn’t make sense, such a player would likely be a regular, but it tries to reconcile his slow start with my original estimation of his talent. There may well be further adjustments in the next 10 days.

Houston’s Jason Castro is healthy and having a torrid spring, the sort of thing we expected a couple of years ago. I’ve bumped up his projection, both power and batting average, and bid price a bit.

Chicago’s John Danks is struggling and not healthy. He’s likely to start the season on the DL. I dropped his bid price a bit, though it’s still higher than his prices in CBS and LABR.

I already had a modest bid price on Kansas City’s putative closer Greg Holland, because the team has two excellent alternatives in Kelvin Herrera and Aaron Crow. Holland’s velocity is down this spring, so be careful here.

I had the Yankees’ Derek Jeter with too many AB given his age.

NL

Colorado’s Josh Rutledge made a strong impression last season after he was called up, hitting for power and average. He’s the team’s second baseman going into this season and looks like he’s a $17 player this year, kind of prorating out what he did last summer. There’s a few reasons to be cautious. Most importantly, he’s a swinging machine with just fair contact skills. That matters because if he gets off to a bad start and Nolan Arenado stays hot, the Rocks have plenty of alternatives, so his position is far from secure. This isn’t a prediction of doom, just a reason not to like all the things about Rutledge’s there are to like uncritically.

Miami’s Juan Pierre should be going at a goodly discount to his projection, a reflection of his advancing age. At some point he’ll get injured or slow down.

Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun is the NL’s best hitter, reflected in a $40 projection and $40 sticker prices in CBS and LABR, but he’s under investigation for the Biogenesis mess. He’s too good and the story is too weird to knock his price down a lot, but I did erase the premium I built in because he’s so extraordinary. But he’s now a risky play, rather than a safe one.

The Brewers’ Jean Segura is a player attracting divergent positions. He’s got good speed, but is young and unproven and without any power at all. Plenty of players are effective with those skills, if they can lay bat on ball and use their speed to get on base. Segura doesn’t walk that much and a slow start could cost him playing time or his job. It’s that risk that has my price on the low side.

Pittsburgh has Travis Snider slated to play right field this year, but Snider’s past failures weigh heavily on him. He’s still just 25 years old, so chances are good he’ll overcome, but a slow start and he could give ground quickly to Jose Tabata, who comes with baggage of his own. That’s a good reason to bid lightly on both of them.

Arizona’s Adam Eaton is perhaps the young player fantasy punters are most excited about this spring. He’s having a fine spring and seems to be in position to see the bulk of the AB playing CF for the Dbacks. His Triple-A stats came from Reno, and it’s really hard to adjust the outsized offensive stats coming out of that park in that league, so there’re a range of possibilities. I’ve said before I’m not convinced he’s going to set the league on fire, but he’s a solid prospect with good speed who will take a walk.

For some reason my mechanical projection for Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman was very modest. I’ve had a strong bid price on him, however, and he’s showing this spring that he’s added a very effective change up. Don’t let him go cheaply.

Milwaukee’s Wily Peralta is in the rotation to start the season, and could make some noise this year. He should be cheap.

San Diego’s Jedd Gyorko will see regular time to start the season because of Chase Headley’s injury. The projection for him in the software was fairly wack (really low BA, lots of RBI), and has been tidied up. This happens sometimes with the minor leaguers and is usually caught by this time. Gyorko’s season could turn on that limited audition in April. If he kills he could be a major leaguer for life, but if he gets off to a slow start he could end up returning to Triple-A when Headley returns.

San Francisco’s Brandon Belt is having a nice spring. My bid for him was too low. I’ve bumped it up a few bucks, but am still below CBS and LABR. He’s a good post-hype sleeper, but is a lot less attractive if you’re paying him as if he’s a reliable piece.

Brian Meissner Will Be Missed.

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I knew Brian Meissner, mostly, as an email voice. Together we put out the last two issues of the Fantasy Baseball Guide and the last issue of the Fantasy Football Guide. Brian was the Art Director. We each worked out of our home offices in different Brooklyn neighborhoods, though our paths walking our daughters (him two–twins, me one–tween) to school overlapped, and a couple of times we met for coffee at Cafe Couleur to talk about the work. But most of the time we sent files back and forth with email lists of to do items and concerns and an occasional bit of baseball chatter.

Brian died yesterday, a week after suffering a massive stroke. The adjective massive seems like a cliche, but witnessing just a sliver of the outpouring of love and support for him and his family from family and friends makes the adjective massive seem trivial. Brian was a gentle, good-hearted and thoughtful man and the hole that comes with his loss is massive.

Brian loved baseball and loved playing fantasy baseball, which meant he was full of good ideas for the magazine (he radically redesigned the mock draft section in a vastly superior way), and loved good design, which meant he brought many visual improvements to bear throughout the book. The last time we met, prelude to this year’s Guide, it was late in the day for coffee, so we stopped in for strong dark beers at the Double Windsor. Though we were supposed to be figuring out how to get the magazine done on a short schedule that included Christmas week, we mostly kicked around ideas for fantasy games and products that might hit big with the fantasy-loving public, setting us up financially while helping us devote even more time to the study and appreciation of the game. We had a great time, I spent far more time out than I intended and arrived home late to dinner, and I got to meet Brian’s wife, Jeanne, as she picked him up for date night (the kids were on a sleepover).

Brian’s friend Willy contacted me Sunday a week ago. Brian had heard my chat with Patrick Davitt on the baseballHQ podcast while doing the dishes on Saturday night. Patrick was impressed by the visual look of the magazine and asked who was responsible, and I praised Brian’s work creating the design. Willy told me that, “upon hearing your segment, [Brian] stopped doing the dishes and ran over to his wife saying excitedly, “I’m Fantasy Famous!”, which is a Brian line if I’ve ever heard one.”

Willy went on: “I played it for some friends and family and then I played it some more and more and more. Everyone that showed up wanted to hear it, and that was quite a lot people. It was great to have, and knowing that he listened to it the last night before the stroke, I think everyone found a little comfort in knowing he went to bed after having had a great day and night feeling good.”

People enter our lives in many differing contexts, and some bring delight and pleasure. Brian was one of those for me, and I will miss him.

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2013 Update == Is Out Now! And a correction.

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Updated projections and Big Prices for the Guide can be found here.

I just corrected a few projections wins totals from the March 14 update. What happened was I used the mechanical adjustment built into the Patton software to increase the projected value of Verlander, King Felix, and Jered Weaver. The mechanical adjustment gave each of them too many projected wins. Wins are a very arbitrary category, and while any of these excellent pitchers could win 23 or 25 wins, the odds are so much against them doing so that it’s silly to project them to do that. I’ve reduced their win totals. Their earnings suffer, but that’s because they’re projected for the injury risk, which is the best reason NOT to bid up pitchers. They sometimes get hurt, catastrophically.

Of course, when they don’t get hurt the best pitchers are usually the best pitchers, which is a good reason to bid them up to their true value (which is already discounted 33 percent because of the hitter/pitcher budget split). How you land on this question is usually a matter of whether you bought Chris Carpenter in is healthy or unhealthy years, or Roy Halladay last year.

NL Random Roster Notes, March 15, 2013

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SAN DIEGO PADRES

Casey Kelly was working his way into the interesting territory, and then today appears to be committed to TJ. We shant see him before 2014.

Before I posted today’s updated files Mike asked me to change the newly appointed Padres second baseman, Jedd Gyorko, to $7. I failed to do that. You can do it, and the new price will also be reflected in next week’s update.

AL Random Roster Notes, March 14, 2013

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I’ve been polishing the projections in the software, and going through some of the playing time issues on various team. What follows are some thoughts as things start to get real:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Considering the disrespect shown to Jim Johnson, none of the other Orioles relievers is getting much CIW status. Pedro Strop is the obvious name here, while Darren O’Day is probably the best arm. That said, Steve Johnson has control issues, but also throws a ton of strikeouts (and bases on balls, and home runs). All should be available in the reserve rounds unless soomeone in your league has a similar thought. Note that Johnson is working as a starter in spring training.

The Orioles have a lot of live arms and veterans with some success competing for the fifth rotation slot. Arrieta, Britton, Matusz, Bundy and Jurrjens, might contribute, especially given Buck Showalter’s usual success with pitchers. Any one of them could be a reserve pick winner.

Brian Roberts has looked healthy. Given his age and his time on the shelf he’s not going to bounce back to former glory, but has a chance to outearn his price if he stays healthy. Alexi is the obvious go to if he doesn’t, but Ryan Flaherty survived a year on the big league roster last year as a Rule 5 draftee.

BOSTON RED SOX

John Lackey has been showing health if not exactly effectiveness this spring.

The presence of Andrew Bailey obscures the presence of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara, who promise to at least throw lots of outs, if not any saves.

I bumped up Mike Napoli a few bucks, though still to less than CBS/LABR paid. If you can stand the BA risk he could prove very productive.

Pedro Ciriaco is the likely backup at 2B, SS and 3B, which given Drew’s solidity and Middlebrooks’ limitations could lead to beaucoup AB. He’s a source of steals and his BA should not hurt, if he plays.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

There’s nothing wrong with Chris Sale except his age. I’m not a believer in the Verducci Effect, but young arms that throw a lot of innings are always at risk. I’m not predicting it, but I’m not bidding him up to the first tier either.

Jeff Keppinger is a good hitter, but has no speed and little power, plus he’s not a defensive plus. If he plays all the time he can be productive if you pay $10 for him, but there are plenty of reasons to think his playing time will be limited.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Scott Kazmir is surprising everyone in camp. The fifth starter battle is multi-headed. I like Carlos Carrasco but he’s not proved himself any more than Kazmir.

I’m downgrading Drew Stubbs, who has athletic skills but can be replaced usually by other talents on this team.

DETROIT TIGERS

CBS/LABR paid a ton more for Max Scherzer than he’s ever earned. I don’t really understand that given some of the other pitching prices, though of course we all love his strikeouts, but I’m not going to say they’re absolutely wrong.

Closer in Detroit is anyone’s guess. My strategy is to buy the cheapest one, who might be Al Albuquerque, though Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel are strong, too. I see zero chance that Bruce Rondon will hold the job because of his control problems.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Jared Cosart has the skills to close now, but he’s seen as a starter in the long term, once he stops walking so many guys. He’s already been sent to the minors, but has a live arm.

The more you pay for Carlos Pena the bigger a problem you’re going to have. He’s virtually all floor, no ceiling, if his price pushes his projection. CBS/LABR are pushing Chris Carter higher, but in my book he has a lot to prove.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Greg Holland is the closer, but his backup, Kelvin Herrera is just as good. If he comes at a stiff discount he’w worth targeting.

I like Salvador Perez and my projection likes him, too, but so do a lot of other people, too. I wouldn’t push him much past he last year’s earnings. He’s young and still has to show he can adjust.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

Ryan Madson is working his way back slowly. Very slowly.

Andrew Romine is looking like the utility guy, a role that has had some value in recent years, though he is not a big power or speed guy.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Glen Perkins did a fine job closing last year, despite throwing from the port side. Jared Burton is the likely CIW.

There are a lot of starter possibilities, but none of them are very good.

I like Josh Willingham’s talent, but I don’t like guys in their mid 30s coming off a career year.

Unless he wins a regular job Darin Mastroianni won’t cost too much and should steal a lot of bases whenever he plays.

NEW YORK YANKEES

How can you not pay Mariano Rivera as the best closer in baseball, though obviously his age is risky.

Edwin Nunez could get plenty of playing time, but his defensive weakness may limit his chances. He is fast and can hit, if he drops to the endgame.

If Travis Hafner is healthy he could thrive with the long ball in that park.

Don’t forget Austin Romine on reserve. Cervelli and Stewart are not going to block him if he’s ready.

Andy Pettitte made his spring debut this week.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

I don’t like Dan Straily this year. Make him a pick to miss.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Stephen Pryor is the hot arm, but he may well not be ready yet.

Kendry Morales is going to be a test of the shorter fences.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

It’s time for Desmond Jennings to break out, if he’s going to break out. I have doubts, but the market is betting on the come.

Matt Joyce is a platooner who could earn nicely and not cost too much. But you’ll be frustrated by the cold stretches and days off.

Jason Bourgeois is another speedy guy who could get swipes if he plays. But might not play.

TEXAS RANGERS

Lance Berkman will DH as much as he’s able to, but he has to be considered a high-risk high-return buy this year. Definitely don’t want to ignore him, but you don’t want to chase him either.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Josh Thole should be cheap, might get regular at bats.