The Fangraphs Mock Draft: Live Blog

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I’m posting here as it goes along, on Monday night, about my picks. I’m sitting in the 17th seat in an 18-team league, mostly because I didn’t realize that the hammer was available. Now, every seat is taken but first. Interesting.

UPDATE: You will find the whole draft results at Couch Managers. There is a discussion going on over at Fangraphs.

Music: Holy Modal Rounders 1+2
Beer: Six Points Sweet Action (with dinner)

Bring it on at 9pm. See you then.

8:51pm: With the 17th pick, I’m hoping for scraps. That someone really good will fall. This isn’t really a year for such a thing. After Trout and Cabrera, I would argue, everyone is a little suspect (or perhaps better said, interchangeable). For instance, I don’t know if I’d take Cano over Hanley Ramirez, and yet there is some small chance that Ramirez will fall to 17th, while no chance at all that Cano will. So, I wait.

9:01: Derek Van Riper took Mike Trout.

Jason Kipnis9:11: Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall, didn’t come close. I took Jason Kipnis, even though I had Adrian Beltre ranked higher, hypnotized by the colors of Couch Manager’s software.

9:12: Beltre was still there on the way back. Brilliant. Now I have to wait 34 picks. The guy on the turn took Ellsbury and Fielder, perfectly fine picks ahead of Beltre, but I’ll suggest that position aside (which is an advantage for Beltre), he’s been a better and more consistent offensive player than those two. But he’s getting older, and any of these guys can have a great year that beggars all the others.

9:31: Third round I took Elvis Andrus, whose youth outweighs his struggles last year. In the fourth after the turn I took Joe Mauer, filling out my skill positions. I would have taken Jason Heyward ahead of Mauer, but he was taken just before it got back to me. I didn’t really set out to take skill position guys, but in each case the available outfielders and first basemen seemed wanting. But now it’s time to change focus. I’m still waiting on pitchers unless someone prime falls to the next spot.

Music: Acid Tongue, Jenny Lewis

9:52: Fifth round goes to Josh Hamilton, my first outfielder. The timing is right, though my confidence of a rebound isn’t strong. But it is possible. Sixth round to Mike Napoli, rounding out my infield. Last year is repeatable, which would be just fine here.

10:06: Seventh round I had to turn to pitchers. The only offensive players who attracted were JJ Hardy and Leonys Martin. I took Mike Minor, hoping Martin would fall, but he was grabbed. I took Shelby Miller next, not Hardy, because it seemed like a time to take pitchers. Not sure there was a right or wrong choice, just my preference to build somewhat symmetrically, if I can.

10:20: Ninth round went for Addison Reed, a closer. This is unusual for me, but in keeping with my determination that it is good to have a closer. With the 10th pick I was going to take Will Venable, but he was snatched, so I took Brett Gardner instead. I’m now a little speed heavy. The alternative was Johnny Cueto, who might be great again but comes with some risk. Adding an outfielder felt like it made more sense.

Music: Off. The rest of the house is in bed.

10:36: 11th and 12th round went to my top two picks in queue, while I was chatting about Tout Wars and the new auction location, which will be open to the public. Details to come. Hello Justin Masterson and RA Dickey. I couldn’t be happier.

10:52: 13th round had Dayan Viciedo and Carlos Quentin atop the queue, and I gladly grabbed Viciedo, who will have a very big year someday soon. But I had second thoughts on Quentin and took George Springer instead. Some power, more speed than I need, but more health and excitement, too. The guy after me took Quentin with the next pick.

11:07: 15th Round I took Mike Moustakas, who is a hard worker and will succeed if he’s physically capable. He should get another solid chance to try. I consider him sold post-hype speculation. In Round 16 I took Gerardo Parra, who is probably better defined by his limitations so far than his excellent baseball skills. I hope for some sort of breakout.

11:13: Round 17 goes to Joe Kelly, who could be a potent starter but qualifies as a reliever in this league. Erasmo Ramirez, who should be healthy and has the skills to succeed if he can get the rest of it in place, is my 18th pick. In a regular mixed league these seem like reaches, but at this point in an 18 team league we’re all grasping a little.

11:26: In the 19th I took Rickie Weeks for middle infield. Maybe he’s done, but he was by far the most potentially potent MI available. In the 20th I took Archie Bradley, who isn’t a sure thing either, but has the skills to step into the rotation and succeed immediately.

11:39: It’s late and the pickin’s are very slim. My hitting is mostly reliable, so I added Byron Buxton, who will have to be replaced for the first half of the season (at least), but at this point there will be reserve guys who can fill in. At 22 I take Tanner Roark, who I’m surprised has lasted this long. The idea is the same: Big upside, if they play, and replaceable in the near term if they don’t.

11:49: At 23 I take Jeremy Hellickson, coming off an awful year after showing years of great potential and modest results. I still see success coming, but I’m glad it’s the reserves. In the 24th round I go for Michael Pineda, a great arm coming back from potentially career-ending surgery (and some shoulder woes last summer during rehab), which is exactly where he should go.

11:54: Final pick, last reserve pick, is Felix Doubront, who had a good run last summer, sandwiched by a terrible start and an awful ending. He’s still young with good stuff. Fingers crossed and I hope I don’t have to use him once Bradley makes the bigs.

2014 Multiposition Chart

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For years we ran this chart in the Fantasy Baseball Guide, but in recent years we’ve added some advertisers and had to cut some content. The multiposition and profit loss charts seemed to be the best suited for transfer to the web.

The spreadsheet includes all players in the 2014 Guide who had 15 or more games played in 2013 at two or more positions in the majors (in the first chart) or the minors (in the second).

How this works in your league will depend on your rules, but it’s a good place to search out players who have more roster flexibility.

Ask Rotoman: Dynasty Reserve Round 1 Pick 1, Maikel Franco or Danny Salazar?

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Dear Rotoman:

I’ve been playing in a dynasty league since it started in 2001.

Ed. Note: The writer goes on to describe the league rules, which are very complex and unusual, but the whole thing comes down to one fundamental question:

I’m in win-now mode and my main question is: who should be my No. 1 pick?

I have it down to Maikel Franco — the No. 26 prospect (the 25 ahead of him are all rostered) who also happens to be a 3B (unless they move him across the diamond) who would take over for Miguel Cabrera in 2015 at the hot corner, when Cabrera has only 1B eligibility, or…

Danny Salazar — who posted some obscene numbers last season over a brief 52 innings. Whomever I take, the other player will not be there at the No. 9 overall — my next pick.

Other available players include Khris Davis, Jonathan Villar, Josmil Pinto, Sonny Gray, Corey Kluber, Koji Uehara, Jim Henderson, John Lackey, Joc Pederson, Alex Wood, Arismendy Alcantara, Jose Quintana, Travis Wood, Garin Cecchini.

What say you?
“Classic Question”

Dear Classic,

For me it all comes down to the alternatives. While Salazar probably has a better shot of having a very nice and productive career, on your list of available players the only potentially transformative hitter is Franco. And while he’s hardly a sure thing, count me in the group that is dubious he’s going to put it all together, the Phillies did a great job with Domonic Brown, developing his rough skills. So there’s some reason to hope Franco will reach his potential.

And that’s enough for me to say take him. There is a chance there, while on the pitching side you have a bunch of pitchers who may be as good or nearly as good as Salazar. That gives you a shot at both a pitching and a hitting win you won’t have if you pass Franco by.

Potentially,
Rotoman

POSTSCRIPT: Which would have been the end of it, especially when the writer said that was exactly his opinion, but then he noticed that the Baseball Forecaster projected Danny Salazar to earn $21 this year.  Could he be, the writer asked, that good?

He could be. Last year Salazar’s fastball averaged 96 mph, and two years after Tommy John surgery he showed good control. In fact, he struck out better than 11 batters per nine in both minor league levels and in the majors, while walking 2.6 per nine in the majors. The only fly in the ointment? He allowed 1.2 homers per nine, not far out of line given the number of fly balls he allowed, but obviously a blemish.

The notable thing about Salazar’s major league run last August and September is that he pitched better, pretty much, than he had in any previous season in the minors. One of the best signs of a pitcher making progress is when he improves his K and BB rates as he faces tougher competition. So it isn’t at all unfair to project Salazar to be just as good next year, based on the skills he’s shown.

On the other hand, how indicative of quality is a short major league season? It’s probably worthwhile looking at other pitchers who put up limited innings (fewer than 75) in their debut season before they turned 25. Since 1973 I found 99 such players. What I wanted to see was how predictive the short season results were for the next season.

I first sorted by WHIP in the short season, then looked at the Top, Middle and Bottom thirds. The results show the classic regression to the mean:

Top: 3.70/1.24 ERA/WHIP  becomes 4.26/1.34
Middle: 4.62/1.42 becomes 5.00/1.49
Bottom: 5.77/1.67 becomes 4.56/1.41

But another way to look at it is to see how many pitchers in each group put up decent seasons the second year.

Top: 12 of 32
Middle: 1 of 23
Bottom: 2 of 21

As a group the top third didn’t collectively dominate the way they had their debut seasons, but talent definitely persisted and clustered.

Which doesn’t prove that Salazar will persist, but given his heater, his control, his ability to miss bats, he has a good chance to help the Indians this year. And he might even earn that $21. But absent a track record and insight into the way he might adjust once the hitters adjust to him, I think a much more modest bid limit is prudent.

In the Fantasy Guide I gave him a bid price of $8, and thought that was aggressive, but I’m going to bump that to $10. Given all the talk about him this spring, already, that probably isn’t going to get him. But it pushes a little more risk onto the guy who ends up rostering him.

And what I really hope for is the baseballHQ fans to get into a bidding war.

 

Ask Rotoman: Gyorko or Rendon in Dynasty Strat?

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Dear Rotoman:

I play in a Strat-o-matic league with Dynasty rules. I can draft Jedd Gyorko or Anthony Rendon next, and keep him forever. Who would you take?

“Seconds to Choose”

SD_Padres_Jedd_GyorkoDear Seconds:

My fast answer is Gyorko. He’s coming into his prime, should have more value this year and next, and has no playing time issues. Rendon filled in admirably when called on last year, but he’s not guaranteed playing time this year. This, the short term instant answer has to be Gyorko.

But you’re also asking about these two player’s careers. Which of them will have more value?

Gyorko demonstrated last year, at age 25, that he’s already a major league hitter, hitting for power in Petco, his offense-suppressing home field. His second half, after he returned from a groin injury in June, was not nearly as strong as the first half, but let’s chalk that up to growing pains. He makes enough contact that his batting average should be a little better than last year’s .249. And he’s a legitimate power threat at second base at a young age.

Rendon was called up last year when Danny Espinosa was sent down with a bad wrist and a horrible swing. Rendon is a little less than two years younger than Gyorko, and he was generally considered the better prospect before last season, and then had roughly an equivalent season (better BA and OBP, somewhat less power) at a younger age.

Curiously, both played second base last year, though both are considered better third basemen (dubious range, strong arms) going forward. And neither has a big defensive advantage, which matters more in Strat than most games.

The roster question you have to settle is how much NOW do you want to give up for a possibly somewhat better TOMORROW?

When it comes to career values, give something of an edge to Rendon. But this year and maybe next, you have to give an edge to Gyorko. Fangraphs various predictors  (Steamer and Oliver, but not the Fans) give Gyorko a WAR edge this year of 3.4 to 2.9.

Oliver, which makes five-year projections has Gyorko winning each of those years, though shows the margin falling by 2019. I have no idea how meaningful that is, but it does give you an idea of the possibilities.

For my part, in the Guide I have Gyorko priced at $15 this year, Rendon at $9. The big difference is expected playing time.

Since neither of these guys is likely to be a huge star, I think I’d take Gyorko now. Consider it better the bird in the hand, than counting on chickens before they hatch.

Avianly,
Rotoman

 

Ask Rotoman: Which Star Should I Drop?

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Dear Rotoman:

Who should I keep among Robinson Cano, Giancarlo Stanton, Cliff Lee, Albert Pujols, or Adrian Gonzalez. I can only keep four of five.

“Stocked”

Cliff_Lee,_philly_cropDear Stocked:

I’m assuming you play in maybe an eight-team mixed league. Usually I would go to my prices from the Guide, but in such a shallow league the pricing curve changes quite a bit. The best players are bid up aggressively, because the last players taken are not only excellent, but there are also many undrafted players who are just as good.

So, let’s look at where your guys were taken in the magazine Mock Draft, which at 15 rounds has some of the same characteristics as your draft:

Robinson Cano went fifth overall. He’s dropped a few slots in some drafts because he landed in Seattle, but he’s your top-rated hitter.

Giancarlo Stanton went 12th, which is aggressive given his troubles last year and how bad the Marlins will be this year, but he’s a must keep for you because of his youth and power potential.

Albert Pujols went 38th, coming off the worst year of his career. He’s an interesting one because, in addition to the foot injury that wrecked him last year,  he’s shown signs of other age-related wear and tear. The Angels say his foot is healed, and he’s not that far removed from being the game’s best hitter. Let’s come back to him later.

Adrian Gonzalez went 44th, based on his record as a solid hitter with some power. He hasn’t been a superstar the last few years, as he was before, but he makes good contact and will park one now and then. A very solid bet I would probably rank just ahead of Pujols, because we can’t be sure of the latter’s health.

Cliff Lee went 80th, which is no knock on him but an affirmation of the belief that it is necesssary to load up on the best hitters in a draft before getting into the pitching (and obviously favoring the young strikeout arms before the older ones, like Lee).

I’m not sure that you have to go that way, but there are many advantages to it. I think on the potential risk of failure, Lee might have a slim edge over Pujols, but unless your league does something weird, like draft pitchers aggressively, I’d take the hitters over the pitcher, who is likely to still be there when you pick later.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

MLBPA Is Threatened By A-Rod Case

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Ken Rosenthal has an excellent piece out today at Fox Sports.

He alludes to something I have long thought had gotten lost in the long history of baseball and PEDs: The union’s opposition to drug testing back in the 90s. The story is usually told that the union looked the other way, or resisted baseball’s efforts (especially in the early part of the decade) to get or stay clean. But this  simply isn’t true.

Peter_Ueberroth
Peter Ueberroth

The union’s resistance to drug testing and other enforcement procedures was based on its obligation to protect player rights, as well as a profound lack of trust in the owners. Remember that this period coincides with the massive triple-damages award in the collusion ruling against MLB and Peter Ueberroth (based on their 1985-1987 efforts stifle the free agent market).

This was also the time of the run up to the owner’s massive (and failed) attempt to crack the union by shutting down baseball in midseason in 1994.

Oh, and this was also when George Steinbrenner accepted a “lifetime” ban from the game because he had hired a whole lot of shadiness to try to extract himself from his obligations to Dave Winfield by tarnishing Winfield’s reputation.

The union’s position that ownership could not be trusted was well earned.

In the A-Rod case, as Rosenthal points out, MLB sued Biogenesis owner Tony Bosch in order to pressure him to testify against A-Rod. Whether they could have won that case is doubtful, but there is no doubt that Bosch was in no position to pay for a defense. This is the place where the player’s union could have stepped in to protect not only A-Rod but all players’ rights, but declined. Rosenthal writes:

“Rodriguez’s legal team could have made its case without attacking Weiner, who died of brain cancer on Nov. 21. But one of the team’s central points – that the union should have acted to stop baseball from its “sham” lawsuit against Biogenesis – is a fair criticism, particularly in hindsight.”

But Rosenthal also points out the bind that the union was in. On first blush, a countersuit would certainly have looked like they were defending drug use, just as history says they were defending it back in the 90s when they were trying to protect against just such a situation with MLB running over player rights.

The silver lining for A-Rod (and could the union have had the foresight to defend him by going at it this way?) is that perhaps his only chance of winning his lawsuit against MLB is to show that his union failed to represent him competently.

Jay Jaffe’s Basement League Baseball: A remembrance

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Screenshot 2014-01-20 10.37.41Who among us did not nurse a fevered infatuation with some form or forms of simulated baseball game while growing up? If not for that, would we be here today? I mean at Ask Rotoman, not in the larger existential sense.

My father introduced me to a dice baseball game he invented when he was in school when I was a boy, and I recreated the Mets’ early years and documented the simulated seasons just as enthusiastically as he had done the New York Giants of his youth. This involved cutting out the day’s box score and pasting it into a notebook beside the simulated scoresheet of the dice game. I know, crazy.

The baseball writer Jay Jaffe has a similar story, which he tells in this piece at Old Time Family Baseball. Charmingly.