Ask Rotoman: Time Wieters for No Man

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Dear Rotoman:

I have Matt Wieters on my team.  Do you think I should pick up a catcher to replace him or wait to see if he will eventually get better. Replacement Options would be John Jaso, Kurt Suzuki, AJ Pierzynski, Wellington Castillo, or Russell Martin.

“Caught Looking”

Dear Caught:

Wieters went on the DL on May 11th and is eligible to return on May 26th, but so far his elbow still hurts and he hasn’t been able to throw, so don’t expect him to return when eligible.

joeweider-flexing

Reports are that he’s feeling better, but until he proves himself able to throw at full effort without re-injuring himself it’s hard to say with any certainty when he’s going to get back. Right now he’s no strongman.

The range of possibilities extends from a healthy return in early July as a catcher, to an earlier unhealthy return limited to DH duties sometime in mid June, or season-ending Tommy John surgery, probably after it’s decided that he’s not getting better from rest. The value of the DH stint is reduced because surgery will remain an option, should the Orioles fall out of the race.

Since you asked the question, I’m assuming you play in a league that has no DL or reserve slots. I can understand not having reserve lists, keep those healthy players available to all teams, but I think it’s just cruel to force teams to make decisions like this. The uncertainty punishes teams that suffer more injuries than other teams, and most injuries just aren’t predictable.

So be it. Let’s say Wieters comes back July 1 and is healthy. You’ll get $9 of expected production out of him the rest of the way, in half a season, assuming he performs as expected.

You’ll get a little more than two-thirds of a season from the other guys. Here’s what they cost in the preseason and what they’ve earned so far, as well as an evaluation of their value going forward:

John Jaso: ($8, $4) He is the most like of these guys to have a breakout season, beating expectations by a lot. He’s already ahead. Plus he’s earning his breakout without a ridiculously high batting average. Expect $6 more from him, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he put up $8 more.

Kurt Suzuki: ($2, $5) He’s hitting better than .300, but has always looked like a .240 hitter, now playing in a park notorious for stifling homers. He’s not going to be a $15 hitter this year. Expect perhaps another $3, or less.

AJ Pierzynski: ($12, $3) He’s a little bit behind expectations but has such a long and robust history it’s easy to expect him to catch up. He could earn another $9.

Wellington Castillo: ($9, $3) He’s right on pace to earn to expectations, which is another $6. Why not?

Russell Martin: ($10, $2) He missed time on the DL, which puts him on pace to have earned $4 thus far, and thus $8 more the rest of the way if he stayed on that pace. Expect a little less than that, but it’s in the ballpark.

So, your best bets are Pierzynski and Jaso, with Martin a bit behind. None should be expected to earn more in the next four months than Wieters will if he plays three healthy months. If you were sure Wieters were going to come back, you would hold onto him. Or so the evidence would suggest. But the difference isn’t great, and the odds that Wieters won’t return are more than zero.

How much more? If you think they’re 1 in 5 chance, Wieters rates as $7 the rest of the way. If it’s a 50/50 chance, Wieters becomes a $4 player. The real odds are probably somewhere between those two, but you can’t ignore the possibility that he’ll opt for surgery, making him a $0 player. The only scenario in which Wieters beats Jaso or Pierzynski is if he gets healthy and plays the rest of the season as you hope he would. Those odds favor replacing him.

If it were my choice, I would switch to Jaso as soon as possible, but I wouldn’t blame you at all if you switched to Pierzynski instead. He’s probably the safer choice of the two. Either way, make the move, and remember you can always angle to recapture Wieters via FAAB if he does come back.

That wouldn’t be a bad move at all.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Pick a pitcher. Pick Two!

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Hey Rotoman:

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 Roto League. My pitching staff consists of Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma , Yordano Ventura,  and Tanner Roark, with Alex Cobb and Hyun-Jin Ryu  on The DL. Who do I drop Hyun-Jin Ryu or Yordano Ventura? Cobb will be replacing Tanner Roark.

“U Pick Pitchers”

Dear U:

This is a better problem to have than most. Starting a staff with Wainwright, Scherzer, Greinke and Iwakuma, even in a 12-team mixed league, takes a lot of the pressure off.

You seem pretty certain that Cobb for Roark is the first move, but with Ryu coming off the DL today, I thought it might be worthwhile looking at all four guys. Each has a story.

Here they are. The first number is their composite preseason price. The second is my bid price in preseason. The third is what they’ve earned so far (multiply by 3.5 for a full-season value). These are Only League prices, used as an index of value, not as a measure of worth in your mixed format:

Tanner Roark: ($4, $8, $4) He’s done a fairly good job so far for the Nationals. A fair number of grounders and strikeouts, plus a good defense behind him, has helped. He’s not overpowering enough to feel comfortable yet, but is a fine back of the rotation guy, even in mixed.

Yordano Ventura: ($7, $8, $6) As advertised, more than a strikeout an inning with good control. Very solid performance so far without the wins to gas the value, thanks to the Royals’ weak offense thus far.

Alex Cobb: ($18, $18, $3) He’d only made three starts before he was shut down with an oblique injury, one of the cascade of injuries to pitchers this season. But this wasn’t his arm, and he’s expected to be ready to start Thursday night against the A’s. He’s a groundball pitcher with a reasonable strikeout rate and good control. You have to activate him when he’s ready to go.

Hyun-Jin Ryu: ($15, $17, $3) He was shut down two weeks ago with some soreness in his pitching shoulder. He was supposedly not even given any imaging, the Dodgers just wanted to be careful he didn’t overdo it. He’s a moderate groundball pitcher with a decent but not great strikeout record, and good not great control.

When do they pitch?

Ryu: Tonight, the Mets in NY.
Cobb: Tomorrow, the A’s in Tampa.
Roark: Tonight, the Reds in DC, Monday, Marlins in DC
Ventura: Monday, Houston in KC.

I agree that replacing Roark with Cobb is a no brainer, so do that after tonight’s game. The Reds are crippled and on the road. Get an extra start.

I also agree that Ventura and Ryu is kind of a close call. My sense of adventure wants to say go with Ventura, the emerging ace, but common sense gives the nod to Ryu for a few reasons.

Ryu plays for a better team and should win more games. He has also been round the league a few times and hasn’t stumbled. He’s the safer choice, even as he comes off the DL.

Ventura is the exciting choice. He throws 96 mph consistently, with tough breaking pitches. But he’s young and has made only 12 major league starts. No way I’m predicting that he’s going to stumble in any big way, but he’s had an advantage so far that is going to fade a little. Does he have the moxie to adapt? We don’t know.

And does he have the stamina to throw the 150 or so additional innings he’s on pace for? There’s no way we can know that either.

More excitement or less excitement, that is the question. Your staff is good enough to take the risk, it’s also strong enough you don’t have to.

What a beautiful day. Let’s play Ryu!

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Gone FAABing.

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Gone_Fishing_(7631766304)I had the two highest bids in Tout Wars this week. $8 each for the Mets Eric Campbell and the Diamondbacks Chase Anderson. I would be lying to you if I said that either were close to my radar on Friday, so I thought it might be helpful lay out some of the reasons for going after these two. You can find Mastersball.com’s analysis of all the FAAB moves here.

First off, I went with a Stars and Scrubs team in Tout Wars, and my team is currently very near the bottom of the standings. Why? Because I’m not getting enough at bats. The injury to Ryan Zimmerman has cost me perhaps 100 at bats, and even with those I would be last in the league in PA. This is a huge burden which has come about because once productive part timers like Gregor Blanco and Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit have been nearly shut out this season. This is my own fault, the risk with the strategy, the curse of the $3 players.

It also calls for aggressive action.

So, I’m looking for hitters. This week the other options were Josh Harrison, Tyler Colvin, and Joaquin Arias. I had $2 on Harrison as my backup if I didn’t get Campbell, but it seemed to me that Campbell was the belle of this ball. The Mets sent down Josh Satin and might (emphasis, might) give Campbell some AB. They might also send him back to Las Vegas, since Lucas Duda is once again healthy.

Campbell was hitting .355 in Las Vegas, which has a major league equivalency of about .260. I’ll take it, if he plays. He’s shown a little power and a little speed and he was replacing Stephen Souza, who had already returned to the minors, so the bar was as low as can be. I’m not looking for a home run here, but our $100 FAAB budgets in Tout can be used for home run swings and for picking off the best available guys each week and hoping you find a keeper. That’s what this play was.

Phil Hertz bid $4, so I ended up paying $5 for Campbell because of our Vickrey auction system.

In Vickrey, the team with the highest bid wins the auction, but pays $1 more than the second highest bid.  I bid $8 on Anderson because I was willing to pay that for a minor league pitcher who was showing extraordinary control, decent power, and had a solid major league debut on Sunday. He allowed one run in 5.3 innings, with one walk and six strikeouts.

Last year and this year Anderson has looked brilliant in Double-A. Last year in Triple-A he got killed, in the PCL, for 60 innings. Anderson is not a top prospect. He threw 92 yesterday, tops, and showed a curve and a change. He had a good outcome and may not get another chance this week because the White Sox have two days off.

I bid $8 thinking I might be outbid, but I wasn’t. No other money was bid, and Anderson cost me a $1. I’ll take it.

There is much to be afraid of looking at his 2013 Triple-A results, but pitching in the PCL and failing is not necessarily an indication that a pitcher is doomed. The parks are small, at altitude and in the desert’s dry air. It is a league that punishes pitchers, and sometimes that isn’t fair.

Whether or not it’s fair to Chase Anderson there is no way to know. We do know he wasn’t a top prospect, he’s not a power pitcher, he throws strikes, has good control, and even last year in the PCL wasn’t a homer monkey (though he did allow more than one per nine innings).

I have a staff that isn’t doing too badly, all things considered. This week I felt I had to get rid of Carlos Torres, who got me a save early but who has not been sharp lately, often pitching in the sixth inning. Auditioning another arm is worth the risk of spending $8 and monitoring closely. Between Anderson and Campbell it would be very helpful to catch some lightning in a bottle, but not crippling if neither pans out.

I love the weekly FAAB process. It is a little mini-auction, a chance to weigh risk and reward and do the right thing. At least sometimes.

 

Ask Rotoman: Which Outfielder Should I Get Rid Of?

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Dear Rotoman:

My outfielders are Jason Heyward, Michael Morse, Colby Rasmus, and Domonic Brown. Who do I try and trade away? It’s a competitive, deep 12-team league. I need to trade one or two away with Ryan Braun coming off the DL Tuesday or I drop one of them and he gets picked up immediately.

Note that one of the OF spots is CF specific, 2 other OF and no UTIL.

– Heyward is projected to have the best year, and if sold now I’d be selling him for much less than I drafted him for. I drafted him since it’s kind of his live or die year, and players tend to excel around that time, and he should be a top 10 CF by the end of the year no?

– Morse could have another great year like 2009-20011, where he had 17 AB/HR and .300ish average. His .540 SLG is right on his 2011 30+ HR year. Could this be a throwback year?

– Colby Rasmus could finally be playing up to his potential as a first round pick by the Cards. Again I need a CF position specifically,  and he has potential to be kind of a Pedro Alvarezy all pop-swing away types. Plus the Jays lineup is killing it, so more pitches to hit and more plate appearances facing the bullpen. I know 5 HR 8R 12 RBI in the last 10 games isn’t a pace that can be kept up, but could his be a sign of what the rest of his year looks like?

– Brown can’t hit anything outside, but if he could figure it out, and he had a much better 2013 than either of the other 3. Now that pitchers found a hole in his swing, do you think he can adjust? I know he hit all those homers the first half of last year pretty short. He had the shortest average homerun distance, and they were always to right field. Will he ever live up to last year?

Who do I target? Anyone I should go for specifically? Do I try to pair a couple up and trade up / a trade they can’t refuse?

“Five Into Four”

Dear 5i4:

You’ve written the analysis yourself, I agree with almost all that you’ve said. But let’s look at a few data points.

2014 Cost: Heyward 23, Morse 13, Rasmus 14, Brown 23.

2014 Earnings: Heyward 2, Morse 6, Rasmus 4, Brown 3

ESPN Player Rater: Heyward 78, Morse 17, Rasmus 28, Brown 80

You have a different scoring system than either the 5×5 costs and earnings above, or the ESPN Rater, but we can see that in any system Morse and Rasmus are exceeding expectations and Heyward and Brown are lagging. Which is why you’re asking the question.

I have to admit, I find the slumps of Heyward and Brown disturbing. Heyward because it has gone on so long, Brown because it looked like he’d made real strides last year, and hasn’t looked like the same hitter this year. If the pitchers have found a real hole, and he can’t adjust, he’s going to have a problem.

But when I look at the numbers, the player I think you have to ditch is Michael Morse. He’s walking less than ever before, striking out more, hitting more infield flies (that’s bad), hitting a lot of his fly balls for homers. All of these are suggestive of a coming correction, an end to his hot start and a slump of sizable proportions.

But here’s the good news. Morse is probably your most tradeable player. His numbers don’t compare horribly to 2011 (he didn’t walk much then either). You might convince someone that he’s going to keep this up. Maybe even package him with Brown, to create a roster slot for the guy you get back to fill. It’s worth trying, anyway, and probably worth it for a team doing poorly to take some chances.

The other good news is that you’re getting Ryan Braun back. In a shallow league like yours, where only 36 outfielders play at a time, having sure Top 10 guys really helps.

Less is morse,
Rotoman

Bolick’s Guide to Fantasy Baseball Prospects 2014 on sale at Google Play store, now!

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bolickbaseball2014 coverJust released through the Google Play store, which serves up an Android mobile version, and files that can be read on eReaders and in web browsers, now discounted to just $2.28!

Okay, you already know about Tanaka, but do you want to know what JD Bolick thinks about Gregory Polanco, Oscar Taveras, Noah Syndergaard and all the hot prospects slated to come up in the coming months? They’re all here, with fantasy implications highlighted.

Also available through Apple’s iBook store and for the Amazon Kindle.

ASK ROTOMAN: Who Do I Cut?

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Hi. My team name is Honey Nut Ichiros and I am currently in a Yahoo Fantasy League. Which of the following pitchers should I drop to allow space for Kershaw back from DL?

 Travis Wood
Carlos Martinez
Luke Gregerson
Tyler Clippard

“#mustbethehoney”

Dear MBTH:

Lucky you. Kershaw sure looked good his first game back from the DL.

In the preseason I had these four ranked: Martinez, Wood, Clippard, Gregerson.

I had Gregerson projected for two saves on the year, and he managed to get three while filling in for the demoted Jim Johnson back in mid-April. But it has been three weeks since he’s saved a game (and he’s blown three), and Johnson is back in the saddle. Well, sort of. He did save last night’s game.

Gregerson has some chance of getting more saves, so let’s look at the other guys.

Tyler Clippard’s ERA looks fine, but he’s walking six hitters per nine innings pitched, and he’s allowed some homers. His xERA is nearly 4.00. While he’s the likely Closer in Waiting in Washington, and saved a bunch of games in 2012, Rafael Soriano has a pretty good hold on the job for now.

Gregerson hasn’t been as dominating as Clippard, but he’s throwing better. Of these two, I’d release Clippard.

The other reliever you mentioned is Carlos Martinez. There was some thought he’d get a chance to start this year, and he’s enough of a talent to expect he’ll be a very good starter right off the bat, when he gets the chance. Curiously, he’s not been a dominant reliever, striking out 14 in 18.3 innings. He’s the Closer in Waiting in St. Louis, for now, but with Jason Motte expected back by the end of the month, and Trevor Rosenthal mostly getting the job done, Martinez’s value lies in a move into the rotation at some point.

I’m still leaning toward releasing Clippard, but Martinez has to pitch better and change roles to truly warrant that support. I think the chance that he will is reason enough to hold onto him.

Finally, Travis Wood. His ERA stinks, but in all other respects he looks exactly like the pitcher he was last year. That’s an innings-eating starter who should have a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA and decent WHIP. Not a huge earner, but a reliable and necessary cog on a team that has Clayton Kershaw to move the big gear.

There you have it: Cut Tyler Clippard, by a hair.

Sweetly,
Rotoman

 

 

Ask Rotoman: What price the good Polanco?

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Dear Rotoman:

I want to pick up Gregory Polanco before someone else grabs him. If he comes up and is decent I can keep him for 1/3 espn auction value for 2015. (3 year average is calculated from $0 + $0 + ESPN estimated price.) to grab him I have to drop one of my outfielders, we start 5. Who should I drop or should I leave Polanco for someone else?

J. Ellsbury – not dropping
B. Harper – in DL spot
C. Blackmon
C. Yelich
S. Victorino
C. Crisp
J. Heyward – leaning towards dropping him due to slow start

Much appreciated!
“Keeper Heaven”

Dear KH:

First off, and everybody should listen up, if you’re going to ask a keeper question you should give prices. It’s really hard to properly weigh a situation without the facts.

I’m assuming that The Good Polanco at one-third his FAAB price is going to be a good deal next year. But how good? Without the prices of your other guys, I can only guess.

For instance, how does Polanco’s projected keeper price compare to Heyward’s? I happen to love Heyward’s potential, but he’s still a child in a game played by mostly men, and he has done little to deserve that love. But hey, Love never asks.

Heyward is off to a slow start, but he’s getting on base, even though his BA stinks. He’s running more, and successfully, and his power numbers are in line with batting leadoff. Depressed. Which is what he’s been doing, and which hurts roto players who expected big power.

What isn’t in line with his performance or future expectations is his runs scored. Those are down now, for no apparent reason, and should grow as we go along, as long as he bats leadoff for the Braves. And given everything else, his batting average should be in the .250 range, which would put his OBP above .350. The runs will come.

But how much did he cost you? I don’t know, which matters in so far as you might keep him next year (or play him this year). If the answer is negative on both counts, you don’t really care how much he bounces back. He’s your second reserve outfielder and he’s kind of costly. Polanco may not be any better this year, but he’ll be way cheaper. It doesn’t matter what either do now, it seems, what matters is next year.

I’ll remind you, I’m mind reading here, but if that’s the case I would try to trade Heyward. You may think he stinks, but my guess is if I was in your league I’d want him more than my fifth outfielder. I might not give you much, depending on his future price, but something is better than nothing.

And then, if I stopped being my Heyward-acquiring self, and I was you, I’d make a reasonable bid to acquire Polanco. You don’t need him. He’s probably not going to help you this year. He might help you next year, but that’s not a guarantee. The cheaper you can get him the more value he’ll have for you going forward. Which is a reason not to bid too aggressively.

And if you lose him? Then you still have Jason Heyward, unless you already traded him to me. Hmm, this is getting complicated. You can sort out the timing, here’s the takeaway.

Heyward is doing his team a favor leading off, but is far better suited to batting fifth, where he can beat the hide off the baseball. And let his BA go to hell. So maybe he’s not in line to earn the way he did a couple years ago.

Gregory Polanco emerged last year as a minor league fave. He’s killing it in Triple-A this year, with a 1.070 OPS. My usual thing about minor leaguers versus major leaguers is to point out that at Polanco’s age today Heyward had already hit 70 major league homers. So, the rule of thumb is, don’t overreach for prospects.

But Polanco is a real talent who makes better contact than Heyward, but doesn’t walk as much. More importantly, he may end up in an RBI role in Pittsburgh, which suits him (and probably helps your team more). And the Pirates have every reason to promote him once he gets past the Super Two date, probably in early June.

Assuming he’s reasonably cheap, that makes him a keen pickup. And I use the keen adjective enthusiastically.

Not placidly,
Rotoman

 

 

Ask Rotoman: Bench Pressing

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Rotoman:

Should I start Jordan Zimmermann who has a two start week but is facing Greinke and Kazmir or start AJ Burnett, who has been good his last few starts. Also should I keep Cole Hamels in even though his last two starts weren’t great? Appreciate the help.

“Going Over Jordan”

Dear Going:

Over the past three years Zimmermann has been the 12th best starting pitcher in the fantasy game. Though he had a terrible start his second outing of the season, he’s been solid since then. I have to assume you’re thinking of benching him because you’re in a shallow league, but I don’t think any league is shallow enough to justify benching the 12th or 15th or 18th best starting pitcher in the game.

Look at it this way: If you played in a four-team league Zimmermann would be the third or fourth best starter on his team. Plus, in a two-start week he has extra value because he’ll throw extra strikeouts.

Of course, you’d rather have his two games come against the Astros and the Padres, but that can’t happen every week.

Now, if there is evidence that your chalk hurler is injured or has something else wrong, benching may be the thing to do. And while there is no evidence of anything wrong with Zimmermann, in fact he’s striking guys out at a higher rate than ever, Cole Hamels is just back from the DL and was down with the flu over the weekend.

I had a flu-like condition a few weeks ago and it lingered. The Phillies say Hamels will start on Tuesday, but I don’t think you can count on him this week. If you have a viable alternative, this might be a good time to make a move.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

The April Leaders: The best and worst of April

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I’m still working on getting the month report formatted properly, but this seems as good a time as any for some April Top 10s. This is for 5×5 BA for only leagues, thru April 30.

One thing to remember is that these prices are scaled to full season prices. If you wanted to judge them in terms of actual one-month production (or lack thereof) you would divide them by 6.25. So, Charlie Blackmon at this point has actually earned $43/6.25, or about $7.  That’s roughly what his end of year earnings would be if he stopped playing after Wednesday’s games.

More April Roto $ Reports will come out of the weekend.

TOP 10 APRIL HITTERS

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies, $43
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox, $39
Jose Abreu, White Sox, $37
Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers, $37
Mike Trout, Angels, $37
Justin Upton, Braves, $36
Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays, $36
Troy Tulowitski, Rockies, $36
Justin Morneau, Rockies, $35
Giancarlo Stanton, $35

BOTTOM 10 APRIL HITTERS

Freddy Galvis, Phillies, -$8
Moises Sierra, Blue Jays, -$7
Tim Federowicz, Dodgers, -$6
JP Arencibia, Rangers, -$6
Jeff Baker, Marlins, -$5
John Baker, Cubs, -$5
Cody Ross, Diamondbacks, -$5
Juan Perez, Giants, -$5
Shane Robinson, Cardinals, -$4
Charlie Culberson, Rockies, -$4

TOP 10 APRIL PITCHERS

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals, $49
Johnny Cueto, Reds, $47
Tim Hudson, Giants, $42
Jose Fernandez, Marlins, $39
Jason Hammel, Cubs, $35
Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers, $33
Julio Teheran, Braves, $33
Felix Hernandez, Mariners, $30
James Shields, Royals, $29
Scott Kazmir, Athletics, $29

BOTTOM 10 APRIL PITCHERS

Felipe Paulino, White Sox, -$46
Carlos Villanueva, Cubs, -$37
Tanner Scheppers, Rangers, -$30
Bronson Arroyo, Diamondbacks, -$27
Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles, -$27
Kevin Correia, Twins, -$26
Ricky Nolasco, Twins, -$25
Lucas Harrell, Astros, -$25
Mike Pelfrey, Twins, -$24
Ivan Nova, Yankees, -$24