Ask Rotoman: How Do I Stay Out of Last Place?

by

Dear Rotoman:

I’m new to fantasy baseball and am struggling to stay out of last place.

It would appear I need better hitting in every category, especially HRs and RBIs.  What should I look for when trying to make trades?  It’s obvious the available batter with the most HRs on the season hasn’t helped me at all.

Is there someplace I can “learn” fantasy baseball strategy?

Oh, and while I’m in last place and it’s obvious my buddies are all better than me, is it okay that I still talk smack—or is that not protocol?

Thanks,
“Owning Last”

Dear Mr. Last:

At the risk of saying something obvious, something I’ve never done before, every league has someone in last place. There is no shame in it, but you sound rightly interested in allowing someone else to have no shame while being in last. Good for you.

If you’re a beginner and playing against more experienced players, it’s no wonder that you’re struggling. Fantasy baseball, in each of its many styles and flavors, is a game that requires knowledge in at least a few different spheres.

How well do you know baseball? How well do you know the rules and values of your particular fantasy game? How well do you know probability? How able a negotiator are you? These are just a few of the areas that you need to be able to handle to compete. There are more. Many more.

Which doesn’t mean, as a beginner, you can’t have fun. And it doesn’t mean you can’t have some success, too. A goodly portion of success (or failure) in any fantasy season, is pure luck. Lack of injuries and the unexpected breakout seasons of players influence any single year’s winning results, a lot, while even the best player can be destroyed by stars getting hurt or failing to perform for mysterious reasons.

As a beginner you’re not likely to overcome your mistakes, but if you make some smart decisions you may be able to beat out someone else who has had worse luck than you. That’s the first step toward fantasy baseball competence!

There are many places to learn about the game and it’s strategies. I dare say, starting at the early posts here at blog.askrotoman.com and reading forward, following links to my stories at ESPN and MLB.com, will answer a broad range of questions for you about player evaluation, projecting and pricing players, and league ettiquette. (To answer your question briefly, it isn’t really right for losers to talk smack, but it’s fine to participate in the ribbing and shadenfreude that are inherent parts of any game.)

I also have a site, rotomansguide.com, which is serving as a fantasy baseball resource for beginners and experts.

There are countless articles on the web about playing fantasy baseball. My friends at KFFL have a beginners summary, which talks about many issues for those getting started, and there are many more out there. Not everyone is right about everything, sorting out the good stuff from the lame is part of the process, which will help make what you learn stick.

As to your question about which players to acquire, here are two tips.

1) Specialize. As the season progresses you cannot make up points in every category. Whether you play in a category or points league, focus on the scoring parts of your game in which you have the most potential, and trade off the other categories to improve those. This isn’t going to win you a championship, but it can get you out of the cellar, which is progress.

2) Buy low. Rather than buy the power hitters who’ve hit the most homers on the season, buy the available power (or other category) hitters about whom there were the highest expectations in the preseason. These players were released because they weren’t performing, but unless they’re hurt or have some other obvious problem (they’ve lost their jobs, for instance), you can expect them to play the rest of the way as was expected of them in the preseason.

In any case, welcome to the wonderful world of fantasy baseball.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: My Team Is Terrible. What Can I Do?

by

Hello,

I feel like my team is jinxed this year. I have all the underachievers on one team. It’s kind of amazing. Anyways, its a 10-team 7 x 7 league with 4 keepers each year. What would you do with these guys?

Zobrist
Jennings
Myers
Aramis Ramirez
Beltran
Butler
Craig
Segura
and Mauer

They all are playing mediocre or awfully. Not really sure of a move to make here. Thanks!

“Stinky”

Dear Stinky:

I’m assuming your pitchers are okay, since you don’t mention them, but still, this is a bad team because you have mediocre players having bad seasons at every position.

Mediocre, you might mutter, or splutter, trying to come up with a clever riposte, but don’t bother. In a 10-team mixed league, you need to have some stars, and you don’t have any. Look at your list:

Zobrist is maybe the eighth best second basemen. Seven teams have better keystone players.

Jennings, Beltran and Wil Myers were ranked in the 40s among outfielders going into this season. I assume your league rosters 30 outfielders (10×3). We’re talking below replacement level. Good players in baseball, because they have 90 starting outfielders, are not good players in a league your size.

Aramis Ramirez was the 17th best third baseman going into this season. Too old.

Billy Butler was the second best DH, out of three, and probably should have been third.

Allen Craig at first base was in a similar position as Ben Zobrist at second. Bottom three in your league going into the season.

And Joe Mauer ranked seventh among catchers.

In fact, your best player among their peers is Jean Segura, and he ranks sixth among shortstops.

I detail all this not to ridicule, really, but to shine the harsh light of reality on your roster. None of these players is a player you would want to keep for next year, even if they were having a typical year.

Which tells us what we need to know: You can’t wait for a rebound.

You thus have two choices.

1) Try to trade your way to a better team this year. This is a hard thing to do, probably impossible at this point in the year, but a worthy challenge if you like to deal. The secret is to unlock the value you have in mostly name brand players, to make speculative plays on young unproven players who are showing signs of breaking out this year. You might try Gregory Polanco, for instance, who was just called up, if he’s available. For a team so stinky, maybe Rougned Odor would be a good fit.

2) Set up your freeze list for next year. This involves a similar process, but means going for guys who might have value next year. Matt Harvey, coming back from Tommy John, is a illustration of this type of candidate. Risky, but worthless to any team that has him this year, so perhaps cheap now and possibly excellent in 2015.

You know better than I how your keepers are valued in your league. Whichever way you go, and you can combine the two approaches up to a point, be bold and uncompromising. Take risks, but jump only if the possible outcome is excellence. In a league your size, anything less is doomed.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

LINK: How Have Pitch Counts Changed Over the Years?

by

I read somewhere that since the earliest days of baseball pitchers, on average, through on average 100 pitches per start. Seems that pitchers would mix up very long and very short starts, and end up at 100 pitches generally.

Today, I found at the Sabernomics website, actual data on pitch counts over the years from 1988 to 2009, which shows much the same thing. Pitchers used to throw many more pitches in a game back then than they ever do today, but they also sometimes threw far fewer. And on average, the results are pretty similar.

Read all about it here.

Of course, this is all the era of the five-man rotation, long after the days of pitchers throwing both games of a doubleheader. That’s when pitchers were men.

ASK ROTOMAN: Which Lateral Pitching Move Should I Make?

by

Dear Rotoman:

My league: 12 team, categories are r, 1b, 2b, 3b, hr, RBI, bb, k’s, sb, avg, w, L, qs, era, whip, k’s, s, bs, holds

My team:
C- Carlos Ruiz
1b- Anthony Rizzo
2b- Howie Kendrick
3b- Evan Longoria
SS- Xander Boegarts
Of- Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera
Uti- Justin Heyward, Mark Teixeira
Bench- Oscar Tavares, Jon Singleton, Michael Bourne, Brian Dozier
DL- Josh Hamilton
SP- Madison Bumgarner, Jason Verlander, Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, Yovani Gallardo
RP- Krod, Joakim Soria, Grant Balfour, Cody Allen
DL- Andrew Cashner

2 questions: I’ve been offered two deals, one where I would give up Hamilton for Gio Gonzalez and another deal where I would give up Mark Teixeira and get Trevor Bauer.

Also what 2 guys do you think I should drop to activate Hamilton and Cashner with my roster right now or if I were to make either of those deals

“Pitching Poor”

Dear PP:
You’re problem is that Bumgarner had a bad April, Verlander and Hamels are struggling and Cashner is hurt, so you have to play Gallardo.

Solution No. 1 is to put Cashner in for Gallardo when he comes off the DL this weekend. That’s easy.

Solution No. 2 is tougher. Verlander has pitched poorly this year, worse than in his mediocre 2013 campaign. Velocity, strikeouts are down, bases on balls are up. This is a struggling pitcher. Hamels, on the other hand, has been throwing some more walks, but for the most part looks the same as usual. So, expect him to bounce back some. But what do you do with Verlander?

Are either Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Bauer an upgrade? And if so, enough of an upgrade to be worth dealing Hamilton or Teixeira?

While both might pitch better than Verlander, neither is close to a chalk starting pitcher for your staff. Gonzalez is fine, strikes out one per inning, but allows a fair number of baserunners. Bauer is freshfaced, and has been throwing a worrisome number of walks. Either might be just fine, if you had them you might choose to play them ahead of Gallardo, but it’s hard to see either solving your problems unless they get uncharacteristically hot. Teixeira and Hamilton have their flaws, but they are real contributors on offense when they’re healthy. Both seem to high a price for either of these guys.

Before making either of those deals, I suggest you try to pry a better pitcher away from some team, even though there will be a bigger price. You have enough outfield depth to put together a package, or even deal McCutchen and play your depth, in order to land a pitcher as good as Bumgarner.

The other alternative is to use Taveras or Singleton as bait for a hot starting starter without a strong rep. With an extra arm or two you might be able to play matchups, and still play Verlander if he gets hot. Last year, after a strong start, he struggled through June and July, but he was able to right the ship, and finished the season strong.

I don’t think he was taking the velocity hit then. Let’s see. Just downloaded Verlander’s chart from Brooks Baseball.

Brooksbaseball-Chart

Nope. He had other issues last summer. I’d be worried, but I would also try to really get better before trading for guys like Gio and Trevor.

In a league like yours, with so many categories, playing time and category management matter a lot. It’s really hard to tell from outside which of these hitters you should be playing. All of them are fine hitters, who will contribute in some ways and hurt you in other ways. Teixeira, for instance, hurts you in BA but helps you in walks. Michael Bourn doesn’t have a lot of power, but will help you in Triples. And so on.

Good luck finding a better trade.
Rotoman

Tout Wars NL: I Made A Trade

by

Work on the Fantasy Football Guide 2014 hasn’t distracted me from my fantasy baseball teams, but it has distracted from writing about it. Last weekend I made a trade with Phil Hertz in Tout Wars NL that might be of interest.

Background: Tout is using OBP instead of BA this year, as we’ve talked about, and in the auction I decided to treat OBP as a more reliable category than BA. So, when Joey Votto was nominated first I bought him, for $5 below my bid max on him (but for $4 more than his BA bid price was). But it turns out no one else was willing to pay the full premium on OBP, so after Votto I kept getting decent OBP guys for BA par prices. Bargains every one, in a sense.

The Problem: I have an awesome team of stars, but early in the season many of my scrubs didn’t play much. Plus Ryan Zimmerman got hurt. I trail in at bats by a huge amount, but am competitive (barely) in the quantitative stats. And I have a big lead in OBP. I needed to convert that OBP lead into hard hitting assets.

What Happened: Phil Hertz has suffered a horrendous run of injuries to his corners. He sent an email last Saturday asking for a corner in exchange for an outfielder. I said I had Votto, who has been on the DL with a bad knee (the same knee he had multiple surgeries on before) and it was announced would not be back this Saturday (31st), when he was eligible. I sent a note to Phil saying I had Votto and in the right circumstances would trade him, but given his injury wasn’t sure what the market was. I said I’d consider an offer.

Next: Phil offered Matt Holliday, who has a decent walk rate, but doesn’t have as much power as Votto. Given the injury risk it was a fair deal, but the problem for me was that Holliday was kind of a Votto lite. He’d protect my OBP, but I couldn’t expect more homers from him if both he and Votto were healthy. In fact, I had to assume I’d lose homers. Not a bad deal for injury mitigation, but not a deal that addressed my needs.

Counter: I told Phil I would make the deal for Jay Bruce. Bruce hasn’t had the on base skills of Votto, but he’s hit more homers. And he’s stolen more bases, especially more than a knee-sore Votto would. So, more quantitative numbers in exchange for a way better OBP hitter with health issues. It was easy for me to say yes. For Phil, who is close to the OBP bottom, Votto may come with some risk, but he brings huge rewards if he stays healthy. You can count on OBP, it is a skill.

The Tickler: Phil asked for $3 FAAB to offset the injury risk. I thought the deal was fair as it was and said so, but countered by offering him $1 FAAB. He accepted. Deal.

Conclusion: My hope had been, before Votto got hurt, to deal him in June to a team at the bottom of the OBP pack for two more productive quantitative players. In other words, trade OBP for AB. But when Votto got hurt, and when the Reds started saying that he might not be 100 percent all year, I thought it made more sense to go for a power hitter now.

Jay Bruce: One problem, of course, is that Bruce isn’t acting like a power hitter at all this year. He’s hitting more grounders, has only hit three homers. Oh, he’s sucked. I call this buying low. He’s a 27 year old power hitter. If he’d been himself Phil wouldn’t have traded him. I think.

But I’m scared, of course, because Votto could get healthy quickly (he played catch today!) and he’s a better hitter than Bruce. And something could be wrong with Bruce.

Of course it could. Bring it on.

LINK: Trading By Telephone

by

alexander_graham_bell_500pxTony Horwitz has played in the Billy Almon league for 17 years and notes in this excellent short essay that trading by email isn’t as fun as trading by email or text. This story is published by Baseball Prospectus, but it is not behind the paywall.

For a few years, when I switched from a landline to a cell phone, my ring tone was Bob Dylan croaking “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” The American Dream League trophy is topped not by a swinging slugger (like Ralph Kiner) but by an old fashioned Bell telephone. Before the internet our game was ruled by telephone skills. Today, my phone is wondrous because with two clicks I can get up-to-the-minute scores, and with one or two more watch any game but those of my home town teams. The most important telephone skill today is clicking tiny icons with fat fingers.

I agree with everything Tony says, and yet talking on the telephone now seems a chore. In the old days, before there were wolves in Wales, to quote Dylan Thomas, my fantasy life was front and center in my family life because of the phone calls. They came when they did, they interrupted work or play, and they couldn’t be easily shifted to some point of pause. They could not be moved to that time when everybody else is in bed and I can study clips of the pitcher on offer, comparing his visuals with the numbers at Fangraphs, concocting some sort of narrative to justify adding him to my team (at such a cost!) or throwing him in (for that?). With email I imagine I spend less time managing my teams, but I may not. What I’m sure of, however, is that my family and work pays less dearly for my obsession.