Ask Rotoman

Dear Rotoman:

“Auctioneer”

Dear Auctioneer:

I stumbled across this site today. They have a matchmaker service: Rotoworld. Do I recommend it?

Nah, but I don’t not recommend it either. Caveat emptor.

I also know that some people post their needs at the Usenet group rec.sport.baseball.fantasy. Again, chances are there are some great leagues out there looking for great players. But it shouldn’t be hard to find some real crap, too.

Good luck,
Rotoman

I like Rob Neyer.

Yes, there are times he’s irritating, and even more irritating there are times he jumps onto some slim calculation that reinforces his larger point, and I just want to shake him…

But he’s got the best soapbox in the world to talk about anything of interest to baseball fans at all, and he does a pretty good job of mixing things up. This story ESPN.com: MLB – Big trade could work for all three teams is a bit of analysis about the deal, and I don’t like Rob’s take because he sort of agrees with me.

I like it because this notion of Defense Neutral Pitching Stats is important, for the very reason that this story makes so clear. A pitcher who has a bad ERA and a bad ratio of hits per balls put into play, is probably the victim of bad luck.

Unlike Dave Mlicki, who dug his own hole.

I still believe that Rusch creates his own problems, he did walk more batters in the frist half than the second half. But that difference pales beside the decrease in hits allowed, which Rob correctly points out is a fairly random pattern.

In the light of this evidence I guess I’d say that maybe Dave Stewart won’t have to work as hard as I thought he would.

ESPN.com: MLB – Overhauled Mets get Burnitz in 3-team swap

I’ve been having problems with the Blogger tonight, I think because I’ve been writing too much and taking too long to do it. So, on the third try, I’m breaking the postings down into less involved capsules.

For more amplification, issue a challenge on the discussion board. Yes, I think the Mets won this deal, but they’ve tapped their pitching again, and seem to be building their team according to the “Rangers Plan.” I’d say it’s the Brewers who stand to gain the most.

ESPN.com: MLB – Overhauled Mets get Burnitz in 3-team swap

Alex Ochoa: He had a better chance to be the star some thought he would be in Coors. At Miller he’ll play and he’ll get on base more than most Brewers, but it’s unlikely he’s going to be an offensive force. Still, if he goes cheap he’ll not be worthless, especially if you can afford a low AVG.

Ross Gload: Not enough power for the strikeouts. Too many strikeouts for the walks. If he’s a student of the game he could stick around for a few years on good attitude, but he has a ways to go before he even gets a chance at that.

Craig House: Too many strikeouts to wash out. Too many walks to succeed. If he figures out how to do it without the walks he’ll get very good in a hurry. But right now he’s merely a colorful project..

ESPN.com: MLB – Overhauled Mets get Burnitz in 3-team swap

Glendon Rusch: His whole deal is confidence. If Dave Stewart can instill it Rusch could be as good as Rick Reed. But if he doesn’t he’ll be as hopeless as, well, just about anybody else you’d care to name.

Benny Agbayani: In Colorado he’ll be valuable in ways he wouldn’t have been in Shea. But he’s not enough of a hitter to play full-time.

Lenny Harris: Not a fantasy factory, but always a potentially useful fill in in tough times.

ESPN.com: MLB – Overhauled Mets get Burnitz in 3-team swap

Jeromy Burnitz: His fantasy value doesn’t change much because of the deal. He helps the Mets. He’ll help your team if you can afford to absorb his batting average.

Jeff D’Amico: He can really pitch when he’s healthy, but he isn’t often healthy. He’s better than Glendon Rusch when he is. Worth a reserve pick, always, and a cheap pick-up whenever it seems he might get into some action that counts.

Lou Collier: Not a fantasy factor.

Mark Sweeney: Never was a fantasy factor, though I once spent a lot of time in the cage analyzing his swing and comparing it to John Mabry’s, back before these two made the bigs. My prediction: Sweeney had the sweeter swing, but lacked Mabry’s decisive aggression at the plate.

ESPN.com: MLB – Overhauled Mets get Burnitz in 3-team swap

Well, the Blogger is a great thing, but I’ve written two long analyses of the big deal and been scotched by permissions issues both times. And I can’t figure out how to organize multiple pieces backward. So, I’m hoping you can read them backward. Can you?

Okay, this is about the trade. ESPN.com: MLB – Overhauled Mets get Burnitz in 3-team swap

Peter Gammons

Gammons has been kind of useless for trade speculation. He’s a tool of the all the sources who feed him inside dope and jargon, allowing him to talk about the way Edgar Martinez stays inside his swing, and whatnot. But in spite of that he used to be fun to read.

This Q+A is so unrelentingly wishy-washy that it’s unbearable. So have the last few. Jordan and Schuerholz are right? The Braves and the Mets are the teams to beat? It goes on and on.

It is a sign of thoughtfulness and perhaps intelligence to refrain from making stupid, bold statements for the sake of stirring controversy. But the man who can see both sides of the issue has to go out of his way to explain what the issues are, so the reader has the ammo to make up her or his own mind.

Gammons isn’t doing that these days.

ESPN.com: MLB – Brewers get Proven Veteran in Young

I love Eric Young. I feel like I discovered him in 1995, when I noticed just how often he walked, and how infrequently he struck out. A lot and not much. And when he left Colorado the doubters said he wouldn’t be able to hit in LA, but he did. Because he knows the strike zone.

Why people diss him escapes me. No, he isn’t a great defensive player at this point (though his numbers in Colorado, when he was younger, were awesome), but last year was the only year of his career when he struck out more than walked (by 1).

Eric Young will be 35 in May, and that’s no age to be relying on your footspeed to solidify your place in a ML lineup. But if Jermaine Dye is worth $11M per year to the beloved Athletics, Eric Young is worth less than one fourth that to the profitable Brewers. If you can get him in your mixed league draft at 1/4th Dye’s price, jump all over it. He’s riskier than Dye, but he could be worth just as much without breaking a sweat.

Don’t you think?