Ask Rotoman

Doubt Wars 2001

John Coleman of Sandlot Shrink started it, but the only Doubt Wars league to post final stats was Ask Rotoman. And those few lucky souls who finished ahead of Rotoman got copies of The RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide shipped to their doow, postage paid, as their reward.

It was all so much fun we’re doing it again, following the Tout Wars auctions this weekend, and right now, in a new league called either LADR (League of Alternative Drafting Reality) or BeLABR. Take your pick.

The rules are simple:

Populate a roto roster using players from the AL or NL LABR drafts (prices posted in this week’s Baseball Weekly), but with the player prices $1 more than what the experts paid. You get the advantage of hindsight, but you have to pay a little bit for it.

Players who were not taken are a buck.

Send your entries to ladr@askrotoman.com.

Entries are limited to the first 12 NL and AL received. Members at alexpatton.com have had a few days head start, so there aren’t many slots left. Get your entries in soon.

To give you something to shoot at, here’s my NL entry:

C
Hundley 8
Castro 1

1B/3B
Helton 40
Chipper 34
Tatis 10

2B/SS
Vina 14
D Jackson 6
Larkin 9

OF
Griffey 30
Abreu 34
Agbayani 9
Payton 7
Mateo 5

UT
Norton 4

P
Person 12
Millwood 10
Lawrence 8
Smith 7
Jarvis 3
Coggin 2
Ohka 2
Gagne 4
Fassero 2

TOUT WARS: Battle of the Experts

One of the things I like about Tout Wars is the collective, cooperative aspect of it. Ron Shandler is the driving organizational force, but those of us who play do contribute in meaningful ways.

One of those ways comes via the contribution of the Expert Insight columns. The link above will take you to a very fine article by John Muckler of TQstats.com analyzing 12 pitchers who will either get a lot better or a lot worse this year.

He isn’t going to be right on all twelve, but his rationale is pitch perfect. If he turns out to be right on seven of the 12 his analysis will be roto-important.

Rotoman:

My draft is coming up and I\’m having a hard time figuring out if Carlos Beltran will have a better year than Jose Cruz Jr or if Cruz will have a better year than Beltran. Who do you think will have a better year?

Last year, Beltran earned $39 in 4×4, while Cruz earned $33. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that Beltran will have a better year, but I’m doubtful that Cruz will. Why?

Batting average. Beltran has it, Cruz does not.

Cubs not any closer to acquiring a closer

I really don’t want to flog this much more, but the Chicago Sun-Times reports today that the Cubs have sent a scout to watch Antonio Alfonseca. A deal probably won’t happen but there is clearly enough concern amonst the Chicago front office that Farnsworth and Fassero shouldn’t be considered sure things.

Rotoman:

Any closers-in-waiting that you recommend a $1 flyer on this year?

I think it’s questionable that because they may be more reliable, the few known closers will go for more money. In fact, I think they’ll go for less money. Here’s why:

While relievers do help a roto team’s ERA and Ratio, their limited innings mute that effect. Much of a closer’s value is derived from his saves. When there are a lot of similarly valued relievers, it is easy to identify who is going to collect all the saves, and it behooves all the teams in a roto league to compete for them. Thus, closer prices are high.

When only a few closers can be identified, it is possible to identify where only a small percentage of saves are going to come from. Yet everyone knows that there will be a lot of saves generated in the major leagues this year. It then makes sense to go after less established relievers, who can be bought cheaply, and reserve resources for other categories. Thus, closer prices drop.

That doesn’t make it wrong to go after Rivera or Foulke, but to spend real resources to acquire them could prove crippling later.

As for the cheap guys, I like Luis Rivera, Jorge Julio, Travis Phelps, Bob File, Bob Howry, Steve Karsay, Lou Pote, Arthur Rhodes, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Chad Bradford, Luis Vizcaino, John Rocker (who won’t be that cheap). With the exception of Rocker, these guys are all attractive, yet shouldn’t go for more than a few bucks.

Ask Rotoman @ mlb.com

A new column was posted yesterday, with answers to questions about Curt Schilling, contraction, Jeff Shaw and Holds.

Major League Baseball News

Dean Palmer has felt a twinge in his shoulder. This is the sort of news that may not mean much for the original prognosis for his return to playing third base (mid season/August) but probably means a lot for his return to the hot corner by opening day.

ESPN.com: MLB – Cubs eye Shaw after losing Gordon for three months

I’ve gotten a lot of mail about this story. Shaw had said he was only interested in playing in Ohio, but Chicago isn’t that far away. Clearly the Cubs aren’t satisfied trusting their pen to Farnsworth and Fassero. If Shaw manages to avoid this employment opportunity, expect the Cubs’ search to focus farther south. Could the six-fingered groper, Antonio Alfonseca, be available?

Baseball HQ – First Pitch Forums

This weekend are the Tout Wars drafts, which are being held on Saturday (AL) and Sunday (NL) at noon at the Meadowlands Quality in Lyndhurst, NJ.

Also, Saturday night, Ron Shandler is hosting an experts event. I won’t be there because I live near enough that I’m not staying at the hotel, and far enough that I don’t want to make the drive twice. But it sounds like a lively and helpful event. There is a description at the link above. If you sign up please tell Ron Rotoman sent you.

My buddy Jack Barth, my former partner in the once awesome but now defunct Bar-K Loungers in the now defunct Tiffany League, is putting together a television series in the UK about extreme Japanese culture. He asks “Have you or any of your hi-level baseball pals heard any oddball/compelling stories about Japanese baseball? Eg. Something displaying a Samurai spirit, Offbeat personal stories, Oh, I don�t know� Thanks.”

I don’t much about Japanese baseball, but if you want to post any good ones in the comments section here I’ll make sure Jack reads them. And if they truly display the Samurai spirit, maybe we’ll all learn something from them.