Ask Rotoman

Bud Smith’s Return

I’m really not obsessed with Bud, but this box score illustrates one of the the great inequities of baseball stats–pitching division.

Bud pitched well enough to win, easily. But Gene Stechshulte came in and gave up two runs, which tied the game. I’m not sure why the Stech gets a hold in this situation, but I’m sure it’s another illustration of the inadequacies of the Hold rule.

In any case, Smith should have been the winning pitcher in this game. If he’s available in your league, he should be added to your roster. There’s some chance that he’ll get sent back down in May, if all the other Cardinal pitchers are healthy and effective, but the odds are that there will be a spot somewhere for him for quite some time.

I feel like I’ve drafted a decent team, but I’m starting off terribly in my 5X5 Roto league. I’ve got an outfield of Sosa, Pierre, Alou, and Dunn, Torii Hunter as backups, I’ve also got McGriff, Piazza, Tony Clark, Vina, Mike Lowell, Sean Burroughs, Pokey Reese, and Rafael Furcal. I thought this would be decent, but my average is the worst, and other things are bad too.

Am I panicking too early?

Yes, you are panicking too soon. I can’t tell how good a team you have without knowing how many teams there are in your league, but it doesn’t look like you have a bad offense. And your pitching could be okay, though in a mixed league it is certainly an Ace short.

What should you be looking at right now?

Compare what you’re guys have done with what you expected them to do and see how they measure up. If, for instance, your hitters are hitting .193 and you projected them to hit .271, you can expect things to get better.

At this point, multiply a player’s quantitative stats by 13 to get a rough idea of how they project out for the whole year. Barry Bonds projects to 65 homers and 156 RBI. Sounds good to me, though he probably won’t hit .428. I doubt Eli Marrero will hit .611, but 13 homers and 65 RBI aren’t far out of whack. You get the idea. The point isn’t to be hard and fast about any of it (the real multiplier, based on games played, is closer to 15, but two weeks equals 1/13th of the season), but to be able to quickly judge how you’re actually doing.

Then, when you really know, you’ll be able to panic with impunity.

Oh, and it’s Jorge Julio.

Bambino’s Curse: Diary of a Red Sox Fan

There is a link to this site on my links page. You may have visited or not. I hadn’t until today, and I’m just smitten. Not so much by anything new that is to be found at Bambino’s Curse as by it’s fresh, straight-forward approach.

Gushing about knuckle-ballers! Thankful to have Tim Wakefield to root for! A wonderful admission in the April 9, 2002 post that while the love of the team may be obsessive (otherwise, why write about it every freakin’ day) it is a circumscribed passion.

And, most importantly, it is a passion.

I’ve been offered Todd Helton, Bobby Abreu, Roger Clemens, and Matt Morris for Vladmir Guerrero, Shawn Green, Freddy Garcia, and Mark Buehrle. I know that I get the better part of the deal by a margin but right now I’m in 4th place with my guys and he’s in dead last with his. Should I do it?

Wow, that’s a lot of names. But here’s what I quickly see:

Helton and Guerrero show up on price lists about even. So do Abreu and Green. You can like one or the other, but the net result of swapping these four is basically null. Zilch. Zippo. Nil.

So, how about the pitchers? I’ve got Clemens ($8) and Morris ($13) worth about $21, while Garcia ($30) and Buehrle ($25) go for a whole lot more. By my reckoning you don’t get the better part of the deal at all, but I have to admit I’m extra wary of Clemens and Morris and I could be wrong about them. Clemens, after all, is aging, but apparently indestructible, while Morris is clearly great as long as he stays healthy. Last year those two earned $45, while Garcia and Buehrle earned $64. Hmm, another strong not against the deal.

So, what did LABR do? Clemens for $20, Morris for $23 equals $46. Garcia for $25 and Buehrle for $19 equals $44. A slight nod in favor of doing the deal.

You know where I stand: Don’t do it. All the risk lies on the Clemens and Morris side, while Garcia and Buehrle have all the upside. But clearly those playing in LABR disagree with me, slightly.

For an illustration of what Ken Griffey Jr.’s knee injury looks like, click this link.

The doctors are now saying it isn’t as bad as they first thought. That may be, though he still has a long way to go before that 40 percent tear is strong enough to hold up while he jogs, sprints and gets into run downs.

RotoMan were you dead-on…

So do you think Bud Smith’s stint will end when Woody Williams comes back, or will he earn a permanent spot in the rotation?

Because we’ve been, er, following this story, I just wanted to touch base. Bud Smith is back and is expected to pitch on Thursday. Woody Williams has a strained oblique muscle and is expected to be out about a month.

This link to Rotoworld from mlb.com’s Major League Baseball Fantasy gives the latest about Williams’ condition.

As far as Smith is concerned, I think the situation is clear. If they end up in another numbers crunch come mid-May it isn’t inconceivable that he’d be sent out. But assuming he does the job now, and I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be very good, at least, odds are that one or another Cardinals pitcher will be ailing, and that Bud Smith is now a big leaguer to stay.

There is a new column posted today at mlb.com. Among the topics: Ken Griffey and Ruben Mateo, Alex Sanchez, an odd sort of trade and the Coors effect.

I was out of town from last Thursday to Sunday, unexpectedly staying at a friend’s house where there was no online access. Which explains the paucity of recent posts. Please keep sending questions. The most generally interesting will make it into the mlb.com column each week. I’ve been answering the rest that haven’t made them onto the site personally, and will do my best to continue to do so.

Cheers,
Peter

MLB.com: Griffey Down, Out, 3-6 weeks

Ken Griffey Jr. is turning into a prime illustration of why you shouldn’t assume a guy is going to get into the Hall of Fame. Griffey may come back this year, and he may end up having a solid season, but his stars are still crossed at this point. And unless he starts playing regularly, all the great things that were predicted for him not so long ago will not come to pass.

Will he get back this year? It sounds like he probably will, but I would not count on it. The doctors are obliged to be rosy about the possibility of rehab working. The team and the player want to hear good news, too. The fact is that if in a month he’s still hobbled and they decide to cut his knee, the attempt to rehab (and the wearing of a brave face in the shadow of such darkness) will have cost Griffey and the Reds nothing.

Fantasy players are in a bind. Griffey’s value has plummetted, yet you may be able to get more for him now than he’s going to turn out to be worth six weeks from now. My suggestion: If you have a good team and can get a safer piece now for Griffey, someone who might keep you in contention, do it.

But if your team has problems that are going to be tough to solve, it may be best to stick with Griffey, who probably has the most upside of all the replacements available for him right now. But pick up Ruben Mateo if you can. He’s not a perfect player, but he’s got a lot of tools and has already had a little major league success in his career. He’s not a nobody.

Better yet, pick up Austin Kearns, too.

I was wondering if Vicente Padilla was a good pitcher to hang onto, or get a more reliable pitcher?

We don’t know how reliable Padilla is (or will be) because he doesn’t have a reliable track record. But watching him throw that nasty darting sinking sailing stuff Wednesday night, I’m certain he’s worth a shot.

Plenty of guys with nasty stuff run into problems. They walk too many, or begin tipping their delivery, or tend to freeze up in pressure situations, or… you know, there are a million more things that could go wrong. We don’t know if Padilla will be done in by any of them. But he we do know that right now he’s got great stuff, good velocity, a tough delivery and he seems to know what he’s doing.

The only question is why he wasn’t in the Phillies’ starting plans from the start of spring training.

Dear RotoMan:

A friend in a fantasy league I am in offered me Livian Hernandez and Pedro Astacio for Manny Ramirez. I think it is a good deal, but everyone else in the league violently disagreed, and the commissioner vetoed the trade. What is your take on this trade, since you identified Astacio as a sleeper in last week’s column?

Some friend. Yes, indeed, I like Astacio this year, and I think he’s a good bet to succeed, in part because he’s very cheap. If his shoulder goes south or he can’t get anyone out, you can dump him without having done much harm to your club.

And front what I hear Livan Hernandez has lost weight and gotten into shape. So, off of that news and last night’s performance, he might be a guy to get, too. If he’s cheap enough.

But a funny thing happens when you’re trading a top-rung hitter for pitchers with potential: No matter how many you add they aren’t worth any more. So, if Ramirez for Astacio is unfair, there is little extra value to you if your “friend” adds Livan Hernandez. That’s because cheap guys with potential are a dime a dozen (or more like $3-$7 bucks), and a whole staff of them isn’t worth Manny Ramirez.

Here’s a good rule of thumb I’ve mentioned here before: If you’re trading away the best player in the deal, make sure you’re getting a lot of really good help from the players you’re getting. Too often we look at the multiple players we see as valuable because there are so many of them, but often that isn’t the case.