Ask Rotoman

Yo, what happened to Rotoman? I looked at ESPN and I looked at RotoWorld and I can’t find him.

5-1-1-6-2-1-2-1-0-0-5-3-4-7 These were the runs scored in the American League last night. The average is 2.71 per team. Isn’t that abnormally low? And why last night, Tuesday, April 23?

Yo, Rotoman has been at mlb.com for three years, with a new column posted every Tuesday, and here, at askrotoman.com. Where have you been?

I’ve been thinking the same thing. Runs Scored seemed to be down. Lots of shutouts. Lots of fantasy team ERAs in the threes. It seemed like we were in the middle of some 80s revival, and I’m not talking 1987.

But Steve Moyer ran a chart the other day in his column on RotoWire showing that scoring was actually up a little in the American League, while it was down just a little in the National League.

I’ve also been noticing that umpires have been calling the high strike more aggressively and consistently than last year, while the zone’s width may have also narrowed some. It has looked to me like more hitters are becoming aware of pitches at the letter being called strikes, and they’re swinging more aggressively at high heaters, and thus whiffing more.

So, I thought it might be worthwhile looking at a few numbers to see what trends there are this year:

AL (April)
PA per RBI 2001 8.24 2002 7.79
AB per HR 2001 34.9 2002 35.1
OPS 2001 .748 2002 .761
K per IP 2001 .721 2002 .686
BB per IP 2001 .374 2002 .381
ERA 2001 4.41 2002 4.75

So yes, more RBI per plate appearance, which has to mean more runs scored, especially since there is a higher OPS this year. But fewer homers, though hardly enough of a decrease to notice.

On the pitching side, strikeouts are down, walks are up and ERA is way up.

Does this mean anything? Last year April and September were the worst months for hitters, a result you might expect figuring in the weather and the supposed early advantage pitchers have. But in 2000 hitters had their best month in April. I don’t know which of these two years is the aberration, or if the history of early season is simply erratic, but clearly it is subject to swings.

Which means that we should hesitate before we draw sweeping conclusions, except that so far what I seemed to be seeing around home plate isn’t what I was seeing.

[I should also point out that players (hitters and pitchers) have been complaining about the umpires’ strike zone, which is supposed to be getting more consistent by virtue of some high-tech imaging and training the umpires are doing with the leagues’ help. The players say it isn’t, at all, and it’s driving them to distraction.]

As for last night, I don’t know. It sure looked to me like the home plate ump in the Yanks-As game was calling all kinds of stuff strikes. Or maybe it was because it was Warren Spahn’s birthday.

Beacon Journal | 04/22/2002 | Art of the steal missing

This is brought to you because maybe one of your players will be affected, even though the whole thing sounds like a pile of crap. Personally, I’d be surprised if Lawton didn’t end up with 20 steals, though Charlie makes it sound like that’s unlikely.

Everett Out

I know I shouldn’t toot my horn, it’s way early yet, but so far the year is shaping up in many ways as predicted. I don’t think anybody thought that Everett would be a great hitter but the assumption was that Dee-loving Jimy Williams and the Astros’ power hitters would help keep Everett his job.

But he hasn’t. Will Julio Lugo get the bulk of the time? His defensive deficiencies could mean that Geoff Blum will take away some AB, but this has to be good news for those who invested in Lugo and Morgan Ensberg–some AB have been freed.

Tino’s Page

Rotoman:

As much as it pains me to ask this, what do you think of Tino Martinez and his sub-.180 batting average? Is this looking like a permanent thing, or is this just an adjustment period (to the NL)? Should I be worried?

It’s easy to forget that before the 2001 season Tino was pretty much written off as a rich man’s JT Snow. His lovely rebound helped secure his position in NY Yankee history, but it doesn’t change the fact that Tino has not been a consistent and productive hitter during his career, and he isn’t getting younger.

Tino is off to a slow start, but he’ll hit better than he is right now. Heck, even Rey Sanchez could do that. Will he achieve fomer glories? It isn’t impossible, but it’s very unlikely.

If I paid for Tino (and I wouldn’t have) in my fantasy draft, I’d stick with him. He’s going to get better than he’s been. But that shouldn’t stop you from exploring alternatives. There are many out there who could be better keepers, and maybe even more productive this year.

RotoTouts.com Masochists Page

If you’re interested in catching up with some of the earliest fantasy baseball writings about pricing and player value, from Alex Patton, follow the link above.

It’s amazing the deafening silence given the way roto news sites and the baseball media obsess over who is “the man.” Not a peep from anyone with any credibility. And the news on Zimmerman is not good…

The above was written by a guy named John Krempasky at the usenet site rec.sport.baseball.fantasy. And the news on Zimmerman is not good.

Krempasky’s comment provoked me. I’d read the news that Rocker was demoted to the minors after blowing Tuesday night’s game, and my reaction, frankly, was to hope that Todd Van Poppel (who is on my ADL team) would get the saves. But Van Poppel’s been much less effective so far this year than last. My second thought was that Francisco Cordero would be in line, because he was promoted with Rocker’s demotion. But really, Cordero is just barely back in the game after a controversial demotion. So while I knew that someone had to get the job, I didn’t really have an idea who.

But the papers (and Rotowire and Rotoworld) reported that it would be Hideki Irabu who would get the save situations, and tonight, on the first day of the rest of the Texas Rangers’ lives, “the fat pussy toad” got the save. I’m not sure what Jack Krempasky means about credibility. Most of the posters at r.s.b.f. mentioned Irabu, at least. RotoWire said it looked like Irabu was the man, though they thought it would be foolish to assume until an announcement was made.

RotoWorld reported that Irabu and Rudy Seanez were going to get first crack at the job, but opined that Van Poppel was better suited to the task.

RotoTimes is not a serious player in this game. (I love the RotoTimes site. It’s set up is the most logical and helpful. But it isn’t as exhaustive, and so important bits of info slip through.)

But the larger point is that nobody can possibly know anything until John Hart and Jerry Narron make up their minds. And if they aren’t speaking than everybodys’ guesses are purely conjecture. As fantasy players, we have to both get the real news fastest, and we have to guess what the real news is ahead of time. It looks to me like both RotoWire and RotoWorld did a decent job on both accounts.

I’m a little embarrassed that I didn’t jump in with an opinion this morning. Which is why I’m running this rather lengthy piece. But the truth is that I didn’t know. I hoped for Von Poppel, I suspected Cordero. To be honest, the idea that someone would make Irabu their closer didn’t occur to me. Which is why I didn’t write about it.

RotoWorld and RotoWire have to have an opinion. I get to pick and choose my spots. Thanks for stopping by.

Which is why I have Van Poppel on my team. It probably won’t work out. But the goal is to corral the most likely to advance, as well as the best at what they do.

Rotoman–

I have somehow ended up with 4 Phillies starters on my team: Person,
Duckworth, Padilla, and Wolf…. Who do you think will have the best
season, in order?

ESPN.com – Philadelphia Phillies – Clubhouse

It has long been a goal to try to get all the pitchers from one major league team for my fantasy team. It isn’t as easy as it looks, because if there is any expectation that they’ll be any good, they tend to go for a lot more money than you’d like to spend.

The ideal situation would involve scrappy LIMA-type pitchers collected together for a habitually bad team that plays in a pitchers park. I liked the Phillies starters going into the season, especially Person and Adams. As a group the Phillies rotation would have cost a LABR player $34, which isn’t looking like a bad investment. Especially if you managed not to get Adams.

The key with Robert Person is his control. He has been progressively reining it in, to ever better results. He’s not at the top of his game now. There are contract issues and he’s a bit of a head case. The night after he signed his big contract in 2001 he was arrested in Tampa for being disorderly, and he managed to kick out windows in two cop cars, if I recall correctly. Still, if you saw him turn it up in the second half last year, you know how good he can be. He should be the Phillies’ ace this year.

Randy Wolf meets the LIMA criteria: He struck out three for every one he walked, he struck out nearly one per inning and he allowed fewer than one homer per nine innings. He also came out of spring training with a case of tendinitis in his pitching elbow. That last is most distressing because it had already been noted by most everyone who looked that Wolf was an injury risk this year because of all his youthful innings. I’m not completely confident that one always leads to the other, but in this case the cracks are already showing. If he can hold it together, with cortisone and ibuprofen, he could conceivably be better than Person, but he’s precarious.

Vicente Padilla may not be precarious. In fact, he may be the best of this bunch. He converted to starting last season, in Triple-A, and took to it like a hound to stink. I saw much of his first start this year, against the Braves, and his stuff is simply great. He throws hard with a lot of movement, and he’s had excellent control. He’s just 24 and clearly hasn’t established the bona fides of a star, but he sure looks like he has the potential.

Brandon Duckworth doesn’t throw as hard as Padilla, but he’s got a major league curve and change. The real issue is whether he’ll be able to dominate with a fastball that’s average at best. So far this year he’s struck out 30 in 19+ innings, so the evidence is in his favor. Still, I would take his every triumph as a gift and fear the day big league hitters start figuring out his modus.

Bud Smith Yet Again

Actually, it’s only his second start. This time matching up with Randy Johnson. I feel like I’ve gotten myself in a bind on Smith. I don’t think he’s going to be a great pitcher. I do think he might be a very good pitcher. I don’t think there’s much evidence he’ll be very good this year. I do think he should be just fine. This year. Probably.

But, of course, a guy who relies on anything other than gas to get guys out has to learn how to do it at the major league level. And has to learn how to do it after the major league scouts figure out what he’s been doing. In all likelihood Bud is going to struggle at times this year. And at other times he’s going to look awfully good.

So, I’ll remind everyone, he was high on my list of guys to get for cheap. And I hope this is the last I write about him this year, or until his next no hitter.

From Peter Gammons’ April 13 column at espn.com:

While John Burkett is the most enthused he’s been in three weeks as he heads out to his start at Triple-A Pawtucket on Sunday, one Braves scout suggests, “the reason we didn’t re-sign him was that we were worried he was hurt in September. Check his walks.”

Burkett had 36 in 115 innings the first two months and 15 in his final 29 innings.

Burkett was so good (and transformed) last year, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of confidence he can repeat. I’ve been tempted to try to go after him. He was so transformed last year!

But the bases on balls did go unnoticed, and I thought it might be a service to go find that Pawtucket box score:

Well, the box score doesn’t seem to be available, though it looks like you’ll be able to view it at the USA Today Baseball page sometime tomorrow. At least now, as I write, they have Saturday’s box scores posted. But this is what the PawSox official home page had to say:

Burkett Makes Rehab Start for PawSox

Boston pitcher John Burkett made his first appearance in a Red Sox uniform Sunday for the PawSox on a rehab start at McCoy Stadium. Burkett’s start did not go perfectly, as the veteran and 2001 NL All-Star gave up 3 runs in 2.1 innings and took the loss in a 9-2 Red Wings win. Burkett threw 54 pitches, 33 for strikes, and said he felt completely healthy on the mound.

I guess I’m not going to go crazy, but I still think there’s a chance Burkett might be a good bet this year. If he’s free. Take a flyer on the guy and be prepared to bail quickly. Don’t pay for him. But don’t shun him, either.

In a 5×5, 12 team roto NL/AL league. One guy dropped out and we all got a player dependent on waiver priority.

Another owner used his waiver pick on Piazza. He only wants Bonds from my team. Should I do this deal based on my other OF strength and weaker catcher position?

Here’s the easy way to figure this out. Easier because it’s the beginning of the year.

Your choices are to play Bonds and Lieberthal or Mondesi and Piazza.

Expected Earnings this Year:

Bonds ($37) and Lieberthal ($12) = $49

Mondesi ($26) and Piazza ($31) = $57

Earnings Last Year

Bonds ($51) and Lieberthal ($-4) = $47

Mondesi ($24) and Piazza ($22) = $46

There are a lot of ifs involved here. Lieberthal could be better than $12, and Piazza is always a risk to miss time due to injury. Bonds has been spectacular, but he’s of an age where injury has to be a concern, too. But if everyone plays according to their form this is probably a break even deal at worst.

I’m not sure I’d do it. Having Bonds might be too much fun to give up. At least I’d try to get something more from the other guy, since Bonds is clearly better than Piazza (even if the straight-up deal helps you).