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ESPN.com – MLB – Box Score

There are no guarantees the Pirates will win this game, but it has to count as a pretty good week for Josh Fogg. In effect he pitched Randy Johnson and Roy Oswalt to draws, and is in line to come away 2-0, thanks to some good fortune.

He is pitching at a LIMA level right now (6 K per 9, 1 HR per 9, 3 K per BB) and doesn’t show signs of faltering. He may be the sort of finesse pitcher who gets over consistently, but it’s too early to say that confidently. In fact, the general consensus among scouts and analysts is that he will be caught up with.

It was a nice week for him, nonetheless. I hope he enjoyed it.

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ESPN.com: MLB – Jays vs. Rays: the AL least

Okay, maybe this is picky. Maybe especially so because the ESPN.com transaction page has been down all week. But Rob Neyer’s column, a putative position by position comparison of the Blue Jays and Devil Rays, lists Homer Bush as the BJ second baseman and Bobby Smith as the DR third baseman.

Both were released by their respective teams this week and is it wrong to think that a daily column should reflect this? Well, to be less persnikity, I have to admit that if he’d known it the column would have reflected it. Nuff said.

In any case, what is shocking and appropriate about the comparison is the fact that the Toronto pitching staff has been absolutely awful. Preseason touts were crazy for Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay and Luke Prokopec, but only Halladay has shown any grit.

And while fantasy owners who bet on Brandon Lyon or Brian Cooper have been soundly thrashed, the bigger question is: What should I do about it?

The answer is bail, if you can. There is no way to recover from guys putting up a 6.11 ERA the way Brandon Lyon has. But don’t look too closely at that 1.30 WHIP. Only Halladay’s is better on the Blue Jays among starters. And it’s that temptation that will either fuel a Lyon turnaround or drive you batty all the way into the basement.

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ESPN.com: MLB – Dry run: Balls being kept dry in humidor at Coors

I didn’t really believe all the chatter this week that the reason run production was down at Coors was the baseballs, but I didn’t imagine this “solution.”

Keli McGregor, the Rockies president said: “This is something we can control so that the baseball can remain compliant with the specifications set by Major League Baseball. We’re really in the test stage, knowing that the balls dry out.”

I’ll let you read the story for all the other details.

I have no idea if this has really been a factor, but I imgaine it could be. But is it fair? Would teams with bad pitching be allowed to freeze the ball, or keep it in the sauna, or whatever cockamamied scheme they think might help them? And even if the real affect isn’t that great, might not a psychological affect be created?

Will we have to add additional splits to a player’s statistical record: Average with 10 percent humidity, 30 percent humidity, whatever. SLG hitting a popsickle versus SLG hitting a matzoh ball?

And finally, do you think Rockies broadcasters are saying about warning track shots, “Close, but no cigar?”

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May 2, 2002 – The Cliff

I’ve been getting a lot of mail about TIm Salmon, about whom I’ve mostly said something like: “He looks terrible, but there doesn’t seem to be any reason for it. Maybe we don’t know something pertinent. Or maybe he’s simply lost the ability to do it. If the price gets cheap enough I still want him, he’s not a dead duck yet, but there’s lots of reasons to be worried.”

This here story at Baseball Prospectus by Chris Dankberg brings up another once-upon-a-time star who flagged like Salmon. It’s well worth a read.

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Ben Petrick was never high on the lists here. While it appeared he could hit a little, he’s not enough of a catcher to play when he isn’t hitting. And so far he hasn’t hit in the big leagues at all. Petrick was sent to ther minors on Monday and Bobby Estallela was purchased by the Rocks.

Estallela is a good bet to benefit from Coors exposure. He isn’t a great defensive player either, but his power is for real. Hope for a decent average in part time play, and figure he’ll hit some homers. With Todd Hundley on the DL I’m going after him aggressively.

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Baseball America Online – Player Finder [PHELPS, TRAVIS]

Given Esteban Yan’s recent meltdown, it should be PhelpsTime. But Travis has been struggling down in Durham and it’s hard to see him getting called up to solve the Devil Rays’ rather sordid mess.

It isn’t a bad time to take a flier on Zambrano or Colome or Harper, or at least harbor hopes if you have one or the other of them, but odds are that Yan will be back. His downfall was more spectacular than final.

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ESPN.com: MLB – Shaw may land with Reds — in set-up role

I’ve gotten many emails this season about Shaw. He was the consensus #1 reserve pick in NL drafts, assuming he would come back with Cincinnati at some point this season. Why? Because relatively young and healthy and effective pitchers don’t just retire to be with their families. Especially if they can play near to home.

It is far from guaranteed that Shaw will sign with the Reds. These sorts of rumors are always floating about the team from the Queen City, and many don’t come to fruition. And some that do (Deion Sanders, anyone?) don’t actually bear fruit.

But if you have Shaw on your reserve list get a little excited. And teams relying on Danny Graves to close, be a little worried. The only way this deal makes sense, financially and strategically, is if the Reds then turn Graves into a starter.

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Do you have any idea what happened to Edgardo Alfonzo’s power? He seems to have misplaced it somewhere… Not even one dinger so far this season. Is he hurt?

MLB.com Edgardo Alfonzo

First of all, I don’t have Alfonzo’s ear. I may have missed something but I haven’t seen any explanations for Edgardo’s powerlessness this spring. If you checked the career stats at the link above, Edgardo’s slugging percentage this year is lower than it was last year, even though his average is .060 higher.

And, supposedly, he feels healthy.

Well, he did have a problem with his biceps a few weeks ago, and sat out a game, but that wasn’t supposed to affect his hitting–just his throwing.

Throwing, of course, is the biggest challenge when shifting from second base to third base. It’s a longer throw and usually has to be made faster. If the hard thing about shifting from third to second is learning the pivot (as Alfonzo did after he came up), moving the other way the challenge is to adjust to balls that reach you faster, yet have to be thrown faster, too.

Supposedly, Alfonzo is healthy. Supposedly, the back problems that have affected much of his professional career are behind him. (No pun intended).

I don’t know if that’s true, but it sounds like it might be. I would suggest that the Mets’ offense has been having a hard time getting going, but when it does there is ample time for Edgardo to get his 23 homers. I’d keep my eye on this, but I wouldn’t be too worried just yet.