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ESPN.com – MLB – Box Score

I was watching the Red Sox-Yankees game tonight on the tube and saw Tony Clark have three of the worst at bats of all time against David Wells. He was helplessly behind Wells’ fastball, woefully overmatched by his curve and unable to adjust to any changes of speed.

I managed to miss Clark’s at bat against Mike Stanton (that’s the AB he dinged on) but I can tell you that his homer was a gift for fantasy players, and more a testament to Stanton’s ineffectiveness than Clark’s skills.

Tony used to be one of my favorite players. He had a long swing when he reached the bigs, but he reined it in and appeared to be headed for a glorious career. I believed, at the time, he represented the best a hitter could accomplish, overcoming all the instincts that got him to the bigs so that he might thrive in the bigs.

I may be making excuses (for myself as an analyst, not Tony) but I think Clark’s problems stem from his bad back. That said, I will be surprised if Clark gets back on track. I’ve watched him work up-close in Lakeland, and seen him hit enough to still believe in his desire and intelligence. But while the spirit may be willing, the body is no longer there.

Other notes: Bernie Williams is still looking clueless in center field, a condition that has persisted since his father took sick and died last year. His recent hot streak at the plate overshadows what appears to be a steady decline.

The Yankees are very bad defensively. They’re slow and not particularly adept with the leather. I think a case can be made that they’re below average at every position, except maybe shortstop and catcher, where they aren’t great. They’ve been hitting the ball lately, but that isn’t going to last, and I suspect that soon they will look as bad as they did early in the season.

Lou Merloni made a couple of wonderful plays at second base, and Derek Lowe was fabulous. He was physically completely out of rhythm, but managed to throw just enough strikes to work his way out of a series of jams (thanks in large part to Merloni). I’m not checking the box score, but I think Lowe walked five and didn’t record a strikeout. Two rain delays didn’t help him, but it was a wonderful performance because of all the trouble he squeaked through.

Final note: I’m still working on the football magazine and really shouldn’t have watched any baseball at all. And I really shouldn’t be trying to write coherent notes, because I don’t have time. But I had a ton of fun sneaking peeks at this game. Perhaps absence makes the heart grow fonder…

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There’s a new column up at mlb.com, rantings and ravings about trades and the players in the big leagues who will be the best players in baseball in five years.

Also, if you’ve been following the Erubiel Durazo story this week, he’s been benched for ordinary rest, benched against Livan Hernandez for reasons we’re unsure of and benched because the hand that hurt so badly he missed six weeks of the season was hurting again.

Pardon me, and I know he’s going to hit six homers tonight to make a monkey of me again, but if you’re counting on him to be some kind of star, I think you’re going to be disappointed.

Just as I love all the hand-wringing at Baseball Prospectus about Jeremy Giambi, I’m betting that Durazo ultimately confounds their aggressively singular view of the world, too. The point is that there are human elements to all this, and if you stick too closely to the metrics you may just end up championing Roberto Petagine long past anyone cares.

Cheers.

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ESPN.com – MLB – Box Score

Dear Rotoman,

All the experts say Juan Encarcion is done including yourself. However, I have this nagging gut feeling that benching him will kill me, for he has single-handedly saved my team in the Outfield when Griffey went down. I am more loyal to him than Griffey. My question is, Have you ever had a gut feeling on something like this, and would it be wrong to ignore the experts and go with this feeling.

As I write this, I find the experts have shot me in the foot, for I benched Encarcion and he just hit another homer.

Your confused follower.

I think what I said was that Encarnacion was the Cincinnati outfielder with the least trade value. I also said, weeks ago, that until the Reds could put together a trade, the Reds would probably rotate their five players (Griffey, Encarnacion, Casey, Dunn and Kearns) between four positions. Or maybe I said that’s what they should do.

In any case, that’s what they’re now doing.

I believe that you should never do anything because an expert says so, unless you believe the expert is right. What’s the point of playing the game if you don’t follow your own instincts and opinions? Sure, part of the fun is reading other people’s opinions. And some of that reading and listening may change your mind.

But you’re playing the game. If you simply follow the lead of others you’re letting them play the game with your team, and what’s the fun in that?

I happen to have Juan Encarnacion on my Tout Wars team in that so-called experts league. Twelve other so-called experts let me have him for $10, an amount he’s already earned even if he doesn’t play another game. The beauty of this game we play is the way it allows us to test out mettle and perceptions, our diligence and acumen against other worthy opponents, using the world of baseball as the field of knowledge we aspire to master.

I’m happy to have you reading my writing. I don’t really cotton to being an expert, but I read a lot and think a lot and try to pass along what I know entertainingly. And I hope some time I help you and others think through a thought. But you have to play the game.

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Out in Arizona

I should also have pointed out that the DiamondBacks have a genuine fine-hitting prospect down in Tucson, hitting .354 with 8 HR, 33 RBI and 11 doubles. He played outfield in college but is learning to play first base (he has 3 errors this year). The Scouting Notebook 2002 compares him to Mark Grace, in part because he hasn’t show a lot of HR power in his career so far, but he’s hit lots of doubles.

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ESPN.com: MLB – Bautista to miss at least three months with injury

I somehow missed this story yesterday. Bautista will be missed by the teams you picked him up. He was demonstrating that his breakout post-season in 2001 wasn’t a fluke.

The notion that Quinton McCracken is going to end up a regular outfielder in Arizona is amusing, at best. McCracken has gotten chances to play on some of the weakest offensive teams in modern history (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, need I say more?) and hasn’t been able to contribute, much less stick. And in his prime he was only able to hit .290 in Colorado.

He’s no longer in his prime and won’t be a factor.

Because David Delucci has never really shown much and Jose Guillen has shown too much, it seems entirely plausible that Durazo could end up in the outfield and Mark Grace could become a more or less regular first baseman again. Stranger things have happened.

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Peter –

I thought you might put something on your page about how much to FAAB Giambi for. I have some thoughts.

I play in a 4×4 Ultra NL with $100 FAAB. I can’t spend all my money on Giambi, as I spent $5 on Mateo (gamble did not pay off) and then $12 on Estalella (gamble did pay off). But I did advise a friend to go high 90s on Giambi, and this is why.

There are usually two FAAB strategies. One is to fiddle with your team from week to week, hope to strike it lucky with a pickup who becomes a closer or replaces an injured starter. The other is to wait til the trading deadline and blow your wad on the biggest names to cross leagues.

But those guys are only on your team for two months. If you get Giambi, you get him for four months. Even if he only plays 2/3 of the time, he’s still probably worth more than 2 months of, for example, Bobby Higginson. Plus, with a strike looming, you have to spend now in any league that has decided to call an early victor if a strike happens.

Thoughts?

Thanks to Aaron for the above thoughts, which make my job a lot easier. Since I’m gently wrassling with the same issue in Tout Wars (in which the FAAB deadline is 5pm today, the better for us so-called experts to demonstrate what we’re doing) I thought Aaron’s missive was timely. Here’s my take:

I agree.

While there may be better players who will come over to the NL from the AL this year, there may not be. And most of the MLB dump trades will come, as Aaron points out, in late July, nine weeks from now. If you have a hole in your outfield or nearly a hole, that’s nearly one-third of the season you’ll have cash and no player. Unless you get very lucky at midseason Giambi is going to do more for you than any pickup.

And, of course, luck has a lot to do with it. Plenty of teams are going to make aggressive bids for Giambi and not get him. They, of course, can fall back on the hope that Carlos Lee will be traded soon, or Raul Mondesi, or Shannon Stewart, or… You get the idea.

Only one team in each league can guarantee that they get Jeremy, and that’s by going all in. Is he worth it? That is completely dependent on your situation. In leagues that have $0 FAAB bidding I think it’s going to take an all-in bid to get him. If you play in a league in which exhausting FAAB exhausts your chances (apart from trading) for player acquisition, then maybe you’ll be able to get him for less than all in.

My RotoTouts.com Tout Wars team is pretty strong, even though we’ve suffered a complete middle reliever meltdown this week that dropped us into fourth place. So I’m going to bid a lot (say $35) of my FAAB budget (of $51) and I know I won’t get him. But if I was in a desperate situation and I had all my original $100 I think I’d spend it to get him.

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Jeremy Giambi: Wow.

I can’t see anything in his line this year that indicates he’s a bum as a hitter. His average has dropped of late, but his OBP is still pushing .400. Seems to me he’s the best lead-off hitter the A’s had. Or now have.

My argument against Giambi in recent years has been based on the fact that the Royals dumped him (though they got far more for him than the A’s did) because he didn’t get along with Tony Muser (a little general). Now he’s been dumped again, with far less ceremony, for dime-a-dozen John Mabry. In between, Giambi was busted for some pot possession in the off-season.

Without making any specific judgments it seems to me likely that Giambi wore out his welcome in Oakland. Why did they get so little for him? Either because they didn’t care, they just wanted to be shut of him, or because everyone else knows.

I suspect we’ll find out a little more soon, but the deal still won’t make any sense.

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MLB.com Fantasy

The new Ask Rotoman column went up yesterday at mlb.com, if you’re interested in Paul Byrd, CC Sabathia, Erubiel Durazo and AJ Burnett, among others.

And now a programming note: Rotoman has been enlisted to edit yet another fantasy football magazine (#3 in a series), which means that time has suddenly gotten frighteningly tight.

Please keep sending your questions. I’ll do my best to answer personally, though time is really tight. And I’ll use the most universal and interesting of them (and funniest, too) in the weekly column.

But there may not be much posting here. Because time is tight.

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rednot051702

There’s a small bit of news here from the Cincinnati Post. Brady Clark’s agent says the Reds say his client is not going down when Griffey comes back, though the article doesn’t really sound definitive.

For instance, Could it be possible the Reds would send out Mateo and Kearns, as they did at the end of spring training? The article doesn’t even discuss the possibility, though the third Reds outfielder with options is Kearns.

I don’t think so, but if this issue is keeping you up here is more grist.