Answers to fantasy baseball questions (and much more) since 1996
My hitting projections are now posted at mlb.com. Pitchers should be posted soon.
Because I’m stubborn and really do think it’s time for Vlad to find out that it isn’t all fun and games, I’m predicting him for a falloff in power. I’ve spent $57 for him in the XFL, so I’m hoping I’m wrong, but I’m sticking with the prediction.
If you see anythinge else that looks askew, I’d like to hear about it. Thanks.
ESPN.com – MLB – MLB Transactions
I don’t know how long it’s going to stay up, but right now the trannie page at ESPN is showing the Feb 24, 2002 page, rather than Feb 24, 2003..
Did you know that Joe Crede and Miquel Oliva were sent to Charlotte today? I almost plotzed.
ESPN.com: MLB – Interest high for Bechler collectibles
I find it just a little astouding that there are “Bechler collectibles,” and even more incredible that there are idiots, um, hobbyists who think there will be Bechler collectibles a year from now.
Fantasy Baseball: Fantasy Baseball ’03 Player Rankings
ESPN.com is touting the new auction prices in their new fantasy guide. I haven’t done the math to see how they add up, but it sure looks like the numbers are too low..
Todd Helton for $29? It’s never going to happen. Jeff Bagwell for $18? No, I don’t think so.
Over the years I’ve worked to come up with the most meaningful preauction prices and I have to admit that there is no perfect system. The auction is a dynamic event and the prices of players change as it goes along, and they are different for each team depending on strategies, smart moves and dumb plays.
If the ESPN numbers add up to the money that will actually be spent in an auction ($3120 in 12 team AL only leagues, $3380 in 13 team NL only leagues), then someone who uses them is going to end up with 23 $13 players. That might not be a bad strategy, but if elite players have prices that will not buy one elite player in any sane auction, the prices aren’t right.
The problem here is that the prices don’t change between the MLB universe list and the NL universe list.
ESPN makes pretty pages and these lists aren’t unhelpful in some ways, but don’t pay much attention to the prices. They’re wrong.
UVA Computer Science: The Oracle of Bacon at Virginia
How many steps to Kevin Bacon from any actor or actress? This web site has the answer. It also has a link to a feature that finds the links between any two actors.
It was written by the guy who wrote the new feature at baseballreference.com that links any two baseball players. It turns out to be just three small steps from Shoeless Joe to Pete Rose.
ESPN.com: MLB – Kieschnick deserves a shot with Brewers
We’ve been writing about Two-way Brooks for a while, and it’s nice to see the story develop legs. What will really play is if BK strikes out some folks during spring training, and even better if he knocks a few out of Peoria.
As I’ve written before, fantasy leagues are going to have to decide whether he qualifies as a hitter or a pitcher. That’s never happened before.
And while we’re on Neyer, I’m hard pressed to see what the issue is here. Clearly using Dunn as the lead off guy is unusual but perfectly legitimate given all that Neyer has written over the past handful of years.
It isn’t that Dunn and his big OBP are ideal for the leadoff slot, but that there is no one better on the Reds for the job. Putting Dunn there rather than the aging Larkin strikes me as creative, or at least not hidebound.
Which is probably why it won’t happen. But it’s refreshing that the right move is being floated as the innovative idea, rather than something irrefutably dumb.
I headed north this week to get some snow and missed the big storm, though we’ve seen about a foot of it. I also filed the first Ask Rotoman column of the year at mlb.com.
Postings here, at the discussion board (which I’m afraid has been acting a little funky) and pattonandco.com will be sparse for a few more days.
But I’ll be back.
ESPN.com – MLB – MLB Transactions
The link is to the transactions page at espn.com, where I notice that Sid Thrift has landed another job. If memory serves Sid has spent much of the last decade wrecking the Pirates and Orioles. He must be a heck of a guy to keep getting jobs.
And now, no worries. There’s no way anybody can wreck the Devil Rays more than they already are.
ESPN.com: MLB – Done deal: Millar officially joins Red Sox
Okay, the deal is finally done. Now what?
I sure don’t know. Essentially, Millar, Giambi, Ortiz, Hillenbrand and Mueller are going to split 3B, 1B and DH. But since Millar and Giambi don’t show any platoon disadadvantage, it looks like there are two too many players.
I’m willing to bet Hillenbrand and Ortiz end up elsewhere, unless Giambi ticks off his new bosses. For now, assume everyone is going to get about the same playing time they got last year. They just won’t all do it for Boston.
Trace Woods: Is Barry Bonds for Real?
Trace Woods does a lot of legwork, ostensibly trying to determine whether Barry’s two year jag in his late thirties has any precedent, and whether it is caused by his use of performance enhancing drugs.
He makes two errors, I think.
Bonds hasn’t missed more games the last two years than he did in the years before that. Looking at plate appearances rather than Games Played makes that clear.
He should have used SLG to show how much better Bonds has been the last two years, rather than OPS, if the bulk of the performance enhancing drugs argument hinges on strength. Bonds’ OBP has gone up just as much these two years as his SLG has.
These weaknesses notwithstanding, Trace makes the case in a way that forces one to confront the issue. Alas, he doesn’t clean up the mess that confrontation creates, but maybe he’ll do that another time.