Ask Rotoman

ESPN.com – MLB/SPRING2004 – Schwarz: Who’s on first?

In the magazine I say Adam LaRoche could be a Rookie of the Year candidate. Over at www.pattonandco.com I say the same thing. Lawr Michaels scoffed but I added LaRoche to the list of “others to watch.” Alex Patton scoffed but I got him to add a bid price.

LaRoche is a great fielder who can hit. This article does a good job describing his game, which is hardly flashy but should prove solidly professional. Assuming neither Ryan Wagner, Edwin Jackson nor Chad Cordero goes crazy, LaRoche is exactly the sort of slightly older pro who could very quietly suprise.

Of course, he’s also the sort of slightly older pro who could start out 1-42 and quickly lose his job. But assuming he’s not going to be bid up in most leagues he’s well worth a shot.

Alex F. Gonzalez. The F is for friggin’.

In the magazine you’ll find that a stray Florida statline in 2001 ended up in Alex S. Gonzalez stat box. It’s properly labeled so if you’re paying attention you won’t get fooled, which is why I can’t believe I didn’t catch it until now.

Two players should not be allowed to have the same name, by the way.

ESPN.com – MLB – Bernie Williams likely out Opening Day

Is this a continuation of the A-Rod curse? It’s too soon to tell. What we do know is that aging, injury-prone players who miss all of spring training coming off a year of injury aren’t good bets. Unless they go in the mid-teens.

I’m not sure why Robb Nen didn’t get into the Guide. Maybe it was the multiple surgeries he’s had since he last pitched when it counted. Which is why a comment like the following would have been appropriate:

Rotator cuff surgery last spring means he should be throwing again by the start of training camp, but it’s unlikely he’ll be pitching (note the distinction) until well into the season. And that’s only if he stays healthy, hardly a sure thing.

ARod a Yankee?

I happen to be in Italy, and wasn’t planning on posting while I was away, but this deal has rocked the Colosseum. Given how much money Mr. Hicks is swallowing, it’s hard to fault the Yankees on the deal, but clearly it is mind blowing.

The fascinating thing to look at is the way contracts signed a few years ago (ARod, Mike Hampton) have become the vehicles of complex arrangements that shift money around. This sort of arbitrage (I believe the term applies) finds value in odd places, and thus affords the Yankees the opportunity of having the game’s best player at a very fair price, while also saving the Rangers dough.

Fantasy wise, it’s hard to see how this matters at all, unless Mike Young gets beat out of playing time or confidence. For a more thorough appraisal of the secondary effects, please wait until I get my head out of the salumeria.

Prego.

You asked for it you got it. Here are big files listing player prices by category. Or sometimes by two categories or more. I didn’t include it in the magazine this year, but a number of people asked for it.

Unfortunately the files are substantial, about 1.5 Mb. That’s because I saved the excel files as html and then the computer crashed before I could also save as a spreadsheet. I hate when that happens.

Hitters

Pitchers

Hope this helps.

ESPN.com – MLB – Brewers pitcher sought in Dominican shooting

In the Guide we say of Luis Martinez: “Definitely someone to keep an eye on. ”

The DR police certainly agree.

Ask Rotoman’s Message Board

If you’ve been wondering about my projection for Jason Lane in the Guide, here is a thread and something approximating an explanation. When I figure out more about what happened I’ll post on the Magazine page here at askrotoman.com.

Yahoo! News – Bush Names Panelists in Iraq Intel Probe

The key quote here is: “Some prewar intelligence assessments by America and other nations about Iraq’s weapon stockpiles have not been confirmed,” Bush said in the White House briefing room. “We are determined to figure out why.”

Do you think the president invaded Iraq because the CIA and DIA overestimated Iraqi military capabilities?

We should remember that the UN Arms Investigors, who Saddam Hussein let into the country, said there were no weapons.

And that our own intelligence services said there was no immediate threat.

Is the president really determined? I have my opinion, but let’s see what happens.

ESPN.com – MLB – Neyer: Don’t bank on Pudge

Rob does what’s necessary, pointing out the way catchers decline as they get older and more weary and injured. As long as he’s catching there’s no reason to think Pudge will be an exception.

There is reason to think that Pudge knows he’s not going to maintain his offensive skills while catching. Before last season he was quoted saying a position change was in his future. His return to the AL opens the door to spending time behind the plate yet getting plenty of AB as DH, all while working on another position.

That may well extend his career some, get him more AB than he would if he were in the NL, and earn his fantasy owners a few extra bucks on the year.

(One thing Rob didn’t mention was the ballpark context. FWIW, Comerica and Pro Player had similar profiles last year. Neither is much good for a hitter, and with the changes the Tigers made last year Detroit’s home park may be the more hospitable for hitters.