Answers to fantasy baseball questions (and much more) since 1996
Roto Times Sports: Is there any part of Mark Prior that doesn’t hurt?
I can safely say I called the Achilles problem early, but the elbow problem is clearly just as bad. Or worse.
There’s a reason not many are the best pitcher in baseball history. Let’s give Mark a few years to show he deserves consideration. Until then the only option is to wait, unless someone is willing to give you enough now to compensate you for what he could do in a healthy half season.
TSN.ca – MLB Giants – Barry Bonds
Something rather awesome about Bonds. In 1986, after just 254 Single-A at bats, Bonds was promoted to Triple-A and walked 33 times in 148 AB. He did other good stuff, too, but the strike zone discipline was there at the beginning.
Major League Baseball : MLB.com fantasy draft
Major League Baseball kicked off the season last night with a fantasy draft, an all nighter and then watching Opening Dawn in a bar called the Remote Lounge. The draw for the experts and regular “guys” who participated was, well, a chance to be on MLB.tv, a chance to hang out with one’s editor and other friends, and a friendly game of “last man standing” mixed league fantasy.
The last man standing thing is because this was a game played at the draft. There will be no transactions and no additions all season long, so injuries and the ability to balance a squad at the draft will play a big role in who wins. Just before we began MLB announced there would be a $1,000 prize to the winner. Just before we ended that was bumped up to $5,000.
Nobody complained. I’ll let you judge teams and watch the first four rounds. During the taping things went excruciatingly slow, but between the food, the open bar, the company and someone mercifully turning down the volumn, it was good fun.
By the way, I didn’t make it to dawn. Not at the Remote Lounge, anyway.
ESPN.com – MLB – Injured Ellis won’t play for A’s this season
Frank Menechino is hurt and Esteban German has the offensive chops to get by in the big leagues. He may not have the defensive chops, but especially in light of the analysis here (which all but gives Menechino the job), German is worth trying to sneak onto your team.
Menechino is a favorite, but he’s never really lived up to the hype from his younger days, when he really wasn’t all that young. Or productive.
TOUT WARS: Battle of the Experts
I’ve been remiss in promoting the Tout Wars draft, mostly because my access to my website has been screwed up. The blog has been it.
The Tout Wars drafts are today and tomorrow. There should be live commentary via the Tout Wars site. I’m participating in the NL draft, which starts at 10am tomorrow.
Tout Wars was the first 5×5 so-called experts league, but unlike LABR all the participants are actually involved in the roto industry (whatever that means).
You’ll find 2004 bid prices for pitchers and hitters in an excel file here. These are up to date through this afternoon (2-26-2004).
Major League Baseball : Ask Rotoman
The new one is out. Is Justin Morneau a rookie? Which high-risk high-return outfielder do you want? Does anyone believe in the salary drive? And there ‘s other stuff, too.
Roto Times Sports: Nate Ravitz on LABR
Nate’s comments are right on, generally, until the very end, when he screws the pooch.
If more pitching comes into a league (the AL in this case) the value of top pitchers goes down. Not up. Prices are relative to overall value.
Same with hitting, of course. This year the AL should see a much more gradual curve to prices than in recent years, with a lower high. The best players won’t stand out quite so much. And, of course, the opposite will be true in the NL.
ESPN.com – MLB – MLB Transactions
Some significant cuts today. Some, like Bud Smith, remind me of bozos who called me a moron for suggesting a few years ago that Bud’s future wouldn’t be that bright if he couldn’t stay healthy. I wonder where that bozo is today?
Others aren’t exactly surprising, but merit comment:
Deivi Cruz has dug his own grave. He has a great swing but no concept of the strike zone, which it seems will do him in. If he finds a job somewhere he should make the $3 bid price I gave him in the magazine look good. But I’ve embarrassed myself with him before.
Fernando Tatis had a great year a long time ago. We shouldn’t forget that. Certainly the Expos won’t.
Todd Jones and Mike Williams are veteran arms, the sort that should have had a chance in a sinkhole like Tampa. But wherever they land they will have no apparent fantasy value.
Fred McGriff needs nine homers to reach 500. All reports all winter were there was no spot for him on the TB roster, but they were giving him some exposure as a courtesy. I put him at $5 in the magazine, which was a mistake, but I still think he’s worth an endgame shot. If you have the dough go $2. He’s a pro.
The following came in the mail today from BP after I signed up.
STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 2004 NL center fielders, by PECOTA projected VORP
Player, Team, VORP
Jim Edmonds, SLN, 34.0
Wily Pena, CIN, 26.7
Andruw Jones, ATL, 26.4
Mike Cameron, NYN, 25.6
Juan Pierre, FLO, 25.5
For more projections, check out the 2004 PECOTA cards:
Okay, so what’s striking is that they have Wily Mo Pena ranked as the second best centerfielder in the National League this year. When it comes to projections this a defining moment. If Pena turns out not to have a major league career, as I think he may not, there can be no justification for this projection. And if he does have a career, and it doesn’t start soon, the projection is also worthless.
I run the risk of turning into the BP police here, the sort of person who monitors the New York Times for inaccuracies, and I promise you that isn’t what I want to do. But I find it amusing that in the BP book they say of Pena’s PECOTA projection: “If Pena hits his PECOTA projections, it would be a shock.”
Nuff said.