Ask Rotoman

Hi Rotoman.

I’m in a 12-team head-to-head keeper league that counts total bases instead of home runs. Our keeper system is that we can keep players each year but they are retained at a lower round (e.g. last year I drafted Pollock in the 9th round so this year he would cost me a 7th round pick; I kept Harvey in the 19th so he would cost me a 17th round pick).

I can keep three players and I am keeping Correa in the 19th round.

Which two other players should I keep:

– AJ Pollock in the 7th round

– Edwin Encarnacion in the 11th

– Starling Marte in the 13th

– Matt Harvey in the 17th

“Better You Bet”

In the real world, AJ Pollock and Edwin Encarnacion and Starling Marte are going to be gone after two rounds. And Matt Harvey is going to go not a whole lot later. I’ve seen him taken in the second round, though he’s probably a third round pick.

Since keeper value derives from how much better the player is than the keeper round in which he’s kept, these guys rate Pollock (+6), Encarnacion (+10), Marte (+11), and Harvey (+14). The obvious choices are Marte and Harvey, they’re your best values.

On the other hand, you should also game out how your league’s draft is going to go. I don’t know, but let’s say the best hitters go really quickly and pitchers linger a bit. While it would be a shame to lose Harvey, it may make better tactical sense to keep Encarnacion instead. That’s a call only you can make, asking yourself the question: If I keep Harvey and Marte (as well as Correa), will there be enough hitting out there for me?

Depending on how you respond, let your experience be your guide. With this group you can’t really go wrong.

Sincerely,

Who has more value in a standard ESPN keeper league this year and possibly for years beyond, David Peralta as an 11th rounder or Steven Souza as a 19th rounder? Thanks

“Rounders”

In last nght’s Tout Wars Mixed Draft Peralta went in the 7th and Souza went in the 14th. It looks like Peralta in the 11th (+4) and Souza in the 19th (+5) are about equal in terms of step-up value.

Peralta is the more valuable player, however, because he’s a decent contact hitter who will have a decent batting average. This will make him a productive regular.

Souza has a better power/speed combo, but strikes out more than a lot. This leads to a bad batting average and the ever present danger of losing playing time.

If you don’t care about batting average, if you already are dumping it, Souza is probably a reasonable choice, but otherwise Peralta is a clear value in the 11th and the better, more rounded player to keep.

Sincerely,

Rotoman:

12 Team H2H 7×7. Added OBP and SLG. to Offense and no wins but added IP, K/9 and SV/HLD to pitching. Only allowed two keepers

$1 Mookie Betts
$1 Francisco Lindor
$1 Roughned Odor
$26 Nolan Arenado
$18 Joey Votto
$1 Kyle Schwarber
$1 Jose Abreu

$1 Corey Kluber
$1 Noah Syndergaard
$1 Yu Darvish

“Dollar General”

One aspect of answering questions about leagues that don’t have standard configurations and rules is trying to figure out how they play.

In the writer of the above note’s league, potential young stars went for $1 last year, while Nolan Arenado and Joey Votto didn’t have crazy high prices. Does that suggest it’s best to value the extraordinary players, like Arenado and Votto, regardless of price? Or to go cheap and then pay for the studs in the auction, since their prices aren’t that crazy?

Then, if you’re going cheap, as it seems you should, do you take Betts and Abreu, because they’re the two best hitters, even though outfielders, or Lindor and Odor, because they’re MI and scarcer talents, or somehow get Schwarber in there because he’s a Catcher?

Or is it better to lock up your staff, take Kluber and Syndergaard, and get solid there with arms?

I don’t think there is a completely wrong answer here, except to take Yu Darvish, who may turn out to be okay, but is too big a health risk to keep over these other keeps. But I think I would lean toward Betts and Abreu, the two projected to earn the most this year, by quite a bit.

Position scarcity is a thing in a shallow league, but when you’re getting two essentially free players I think it makes sense to go for volume over nuance and speculation.

Sincerely,

Rotoman:

I am in an eight man Points FB league where we get one keeper from the previous year. Whatever keeper we choose we lose the round that the player was drafted the year before. I have to choose between Nolan Arenado and lose my 7th round pick or Corey Seager and lose my 23rd round pick. We can keep them for years to come but the round goes down every year they are kept. For instance, next year I would lose my 6th round for Arenado. What is your opinion??

“Days of Future Past”

Holy cow, there’s some soothsaying involved here.

Nolan Arenado in the 7th, even in an eight team league, is awfully good for this year. And really, in the 6th round next year he’ll be really good, too.

But Corey Seager is one of the top prospects at shortstop, an even shallower position than third base, and the prospect of having him well below price is obviously appealing. Hence your question.

So, first off, the easy answer is that if you have a competitive team this year, keep Arenado. He is a great keep and should be much more productive than Seager this year, and in all likelihood next year and the year after, too.

Now, it’s hard to imagine that in a league with one keep any team is out of it in any year, but if you want to take the long view you do have to consider keeping Seager at 23. After all, you’ll still be getting early valuable picks, including a 7th rounder, which in a league this size is roughly Top 50.

Seager likely won’t be as helpful this year or the next, but as he establishes himself he has the potential to be a Top-3 shortstop for many years to come. What you have to decide is whether it’s worth taking the downgrade this year for that sizable discount in the future.

I would lean toward Arenado, the bird in the proverbial hand, who is only 25 this year. He’s mature and ready now, and while he may not get any better, he’s plenty good enough to be a big plus in the seventh round.

Sincerely,