Uncategorized

Can Dolan be any worse than Tom Werner. Isn’t Werner the guy who bought the Padres, sold all their best players for cash, then resold the Padres for considerably more than he paid?

Oh, and a note: The links here aren’t working yet, but if you want to send a question to Rotoman address it to peter@askrotoman.com.

Happy New Year to all. There promise to be a lot of changes around here soon, if there is a season.

Now that Shige Hasegawa is signed and Keith Law is working for the Blue Jays, things are looking pretty good. But I don’t even want to think what will happen if Charles Dolan ends up with the Red Sox.

Please check back in a few days for all the details on the new site Alex Patton and I are creating.

I don’t know about you, but Bill James is the guy who took my wobbly love for the game in a specific and rather satisfying direction. I loved baseball before I read Bill James, but I didn’t really get it.

James subbed for Rob Neyer at ESPN.com on Monday. If you missed it here is the column. ESPN.com: MLB – James: Rooting for the home team

It demonstrates why James is so damned good. Bill takes his guest shot and uses it to dig at one of the more irritating qualities Neyer has. More importantly, Bill makes the rather important point that all the calculating, and all the sabremetric hoo-ha, really just point to a set of advantages. It doesn’t mean that if you do everything by the sabremetric book everything is going to be easy.

This is important to remember in roto because the in competitive leagues, where the majority of owners know what they’re doing and pay attention all season long, the principles that sabremetrics bring to the game (like Shandler’s LIMA Plan) are only advantages when other people disregard them.

Once a pitcher’s price jumps because he meets the LIMA standards, for instance, he’s no longer a bargain and no longer someone to go after.

The same is true in the big leagues. The Oaklands are doing great and Billy Beane deserves credit, following the principles that Gene Michael used putting together those great Yankees teams of the mid-nineties, without the rather sizeable budget. But once the other big spending teams starts stocking up on those guys, all that will be left for the little spending teams will be big swinging, no walking guys at every position.

And that sabremetric option won’t be available to Billy Beane any longer.

Yes, an infrequent contribution here. Actually, I’ve made some others that have gotten lost in the ether, which as you might imagine is a kind of negative reinforcement. Sorry about that. I appreciate you all writing directly. I think I’ve been pretty good about getting back to you on those.

In Friday’s column by Neyer, linked here, ESPN.com: MLB – Neyer: How good is Scott Rolen? Rob talks about Scott Rolen, who for the first time in three years is playing a sizeable percentage of the Phillies’ games. The article is about Rolen’s defensive value and Larry Bowa’s silly assertion that Rolen saves the Phils 75 to 100 runs per year with his defense.

I have no issue with Rob simply stating that Rolen probably saves something closer to 12 runs per year over an average replacement. I’ve watched him do the math on this issue before, so he doesn’t have to prove it again.

But he also suggests that Rolen is healthy and it is odd that his power numbers are down so much this year over his previous performances. But I wonder. If Rolen has chronic back problems, could they really get all better and yet his performance would then decline? There is the new surface at the Vet this year, which was in part intended to help Rolen cope.

And there is a the new strike zone. Which hasn’t affected Barry Bonds or Luis Gonzalez negatively, but could be a factor for Rolen. He was a guy with great count control in the early part of his career, but as his back has hurt more he has become more of the prototypical slugger. He has tried to pull everything and is less concerned with getting a favorable count.

If I’m right, that his decreased patience comes because of his decreased stamina (“It hurts! It hurts!), might his increased playing time come because he knows he’s not going to get a big contract if he sits too much in this, his contract year?

This position needn’t be as cynical as it sounds. I’m not a big fan of “contract drives,” but if he doesn’t hurt quite as much because of the improved surface but he hurts enough to cause him to pull the ball rather than drive it to all fields, wouldn’t the result be that he’d play, but his power numbers would fall off?

The point for roto players is that Rolen is still young, but if his back is an ongoing problem it shouldn’t be overlooked just because he’s played more than 150 games this year.

Ruben Quevedo reminds us that pitching in Triple-A is a little bit different than pitching in the major leagues. Which is why we shouldn’t ever make assumptions about young pitchers (except for the one that says, “they’ll break your heart.”).

ESPN.com: MLB Boxscore: Atlanta vs. Milwaukee

Didn’t you just know that this one was a foregone conclusion? Rafael Belliard is back. Or is it Mark Lemke?

Or could it be Tony Graffanino.

Voyles has pitched some hot relief in Greenville, striking out 25 in 16 IP.

Machado has been playing in Macon and doesn’t appear to be more than a utilityman, at best.

ESPN.com: MLB – Braves fill shortstop void, deal for Royals’ Sanchez

There is less than 30 minutes left before the trading deadline, and so far it has been all NL. Actually, Houston’s two deals mean that Shannon Stewart probably isn’t going to Colorado. And Mike Williams won’t be going to Boston.

Ever notice how these deals often end up involving teams like the Astros, who haven’t really been mentioned much. Teams like to make deals with teams that keep secrets, and usually the rumor that a deal is in the works means that one side or the other is unhappy and unwilling to do it.

ESPN.com: MLB – Astros acquire Astacio, Pirates closer Williams

Wow. The Mets dealing Rick Reed was kind of expected, but him landing in Minnesota surprises me. Especially since the Twins, like the Mets, lack offense.

Reed should do just fine in the AL. The qualitatives may take a hit because of the DH, but that isn’t a foregone conclusion. The Twins record the rest of the way is pretty easy. The only teams with winning records they play are Cleveland and Anaheim. Even so, he may not win many games because this doesn’t appear to be a team that’s going to score many runs.

The rumor is that they will add Dmitri Young, presumably for prospects. We’ll see. Twins fans should fear that the team thinks that the return of David Ortiz will allow the team to produce as many runs as they did with Lawton when Ortiz was hurt.

I have always loved Lawton. When he was in the minors I remember sitting behind home plate at the Twins spring training field in Fort Myers and admiring his compact swing, patient eye and pugnacious approach. If not for the broken eye bone in 1999 I suspect he would be an elite player today. Or close to it.

Both Reed and Lawton are all-in FAAB bids this week.

ESPN.com: MLB – Twins add Mets’ Reed to staff in trade for Lawton

This Rotoworld comment has Albie Lopez winning 5-6 games with a 4.30 ERA. Maybe.

He’s been pitching better of late and he has a quality arm, as they say. Everybody needs pitching so there’s probably no reason not to go after him. But the thing that stands out for me is the 7 quality starts in 20 chances this year. If he has fixed what was wrong than Rotoworld may have gotten the ERA right (but really, moderate level pitchers will win 4 games, unless they pitch really well or their team scores a lot of runs).

And if he hasn’t solved the problem he’s going to hurt you.

As for Nick Bierbrodt: He was horrible in Arizona thus far. He’s really young and the Devil Rays stink. He’s only worth a shot if you cannot lose any points in ERA and Ratio, and even then you’re grasping. However bright his future is, it isn’t likely to come this year.

Pitcher Info Page