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May 2, 2002 – The Cliff

I’ve been getting a lot of mail about TIm Salmon, about whom I’ve mostly said something like: “He looks terrible, but there doesn’t seem to be any reason for it. Maybe we don’t know something pertinent. Or maybe he’s simply lost the ability to do it. If the price gets cheap enough I still want him, he’s not a dead duck yet, but there’s lots of reasons to be worried.”

This here story at Baseball Prospectus by Chris Dankberg brings up another once-upon-a-time star who flagged like Salmon. It’s well worth a read.

Ask Rotoman at MLB.com Fantasy

Yes, the new column is posted, with quick looks at quick guys like Roger Cedeno, Cristian Guzman and Shannon Stewart, a really dumb trade and how to buy a win.

Ben Petrick was never high on the lists here. While it appeared he could hit a little, he’s not enough of a catcher to play when he isn’t hitting. And so far he hasn’t hit in the big leagues at all. Petrick was sent to ther minors on Monday and Bobby Estallela was purchased by the Rocks.

Estallela is a good bet to benefit from Coors exposure. He isn’t a great defensive player either, but his power is for real. Hope for a decent average in part time play, and figure he’ll hit some homers. With Todd Hundley on the DL I’m going after him aggressively.

Baseball America Online – Player Finder [PHELPS, TRAVIS]

Given Esteban Yan’s recent meltdown, it should be PhelpsTime. But Travis has been struggling down in Durham and it’s hard to see him getting called up to solve the Devil Rays’ rather sordid mess.

It isn’t a bad time to take a flier on Zambrano or Colome or Harper, or at least harbor hopes if you have one or the other of them, but odds are that Yan will be back. His downfall was more spectacular than final.

ESPN.com: MLB – Shaw may land with Reds — in set-up role

I’ve gotten many emails this season about Shaw. He was the consensus #1 reserve pick in NL drafts, assuming he would come back with Cincinnati at some point this season. Why? Because relatively young and healthy and effective pitchers don’t just retire to be with their families. Especially if they can play near to home.

It is far from guaranteed that Shaw will sign with the Reds. These sorts of rumors are always floating about the team from the Queen City, and many don’t come to fruition. And some that do (Deion Sanders, anyone?) don’t actually bear fruit.

But if you have Shaw on your reserve list get a little excited. And teams relying on Danny Graves to close, be a little worried. The only way this deal makes sense, financially and strategically, is if the Reds then turn Graves into a starter.

Do you have any idea what happened to Edgardo Alfonzo’s power? He seems to have misplaced it somewhere… Not even one dinger so far this season. Is he hurt?

MLB.com Edgardo Alfonzo

First of all, I don’t have Alfonzo’s ear. I may have missed something but I haven’t seen any explanations for Edgardo’s powerlessness this spring. If you checked the career stats at the link above, Edgardo’s slugging percentage this year is lower than it was last year, even though his average is .060 higher.

And, supposedly, he feels healthy.

Well, he did have a problem with his biceps a few weeks ago, and sat out a game, but that wasn’t supposed to affect his hitting–just his throwing.

Throwing, of course, is the biggest challenge when shifting from second base to third base. It’s a longer throw and usually has to be made faster. If the hard thing about shifting from third to second is learning the pivot (as Alfonzo did after he came up), moving the other way the challenge is to adjust to balls that reach you faster, yet have to be thrown faster, too.

Supposedly, Alfonzo is healthy. Supposedly, the back problems that have affected much of his professional career are behind him. (No pun intended).

I don’t know if that’s true, but it sounds like it might be. I would suggest that the Mets’ offense has been having a hard time getting going, but when it does there is ample time for Edgardo to get his 23 homers. I’d keep my eye on this, but I wouldn’t be too worried just yet.

MLB.com Fantasy

Rotoman’s dollar values have arrived. Click the above link to see the April earnings.

Rotoman,

Your thoughts on this deal would greatly enlighten my league.

I’m always happy to do a little enlightening. Let’s look at it by components:

Alex Rodriguez, high average, high power, good speed (three year average: $39) for Miguel Tejada, low average, good power, some speed (2 yr. avg: $20) . Big edge to Rodriguez.

Kirk Rueter, off to a hot start, with average earnings the last three years of about $3, for Pedro Astacio, also off to a hot start, whose average earnings the last three years (in Coors!) were $0. Edge: Nice edge to Astacio.

Jeromey Burnitz, low-average power hitter (avg earnings: $13) for Shannon Stewart, high average, high speed guy with some power (avg earnings: $32). Edge: Steward by a lot.

By virtue of the math ARod is about as much better than Tejada as Stewart is of Burnitz. I happen to like Astacio a lot, I’ve touted him highly all Spring, and I’m sure he is much better than Rueter, though ongoing concerns about his shoulder have to be factored in.

I don’t think you can take umbrage at this deal, but if I had Alex Rodriguez and I wanted to improve my team I would trade him for a surer thing than Astacio.

April 29, 2002 – The Daily Prospectus: DEE-fense!

This Joe Sheehan article is a good reason to value the Baseball Prospectus. And offers a good reason why Julio Lugo backers should beware.

Dear All-Knowing Rotoman,

In an 11 team, 25 player (15 batters/ 10 pitchers), standard 5 x 5 league that allows DAILY TRANSACTIONS, and free agent sinings are unlimited — what is the recommended cap for maximum innings pitched?

I’ve never played in a league that has a pitching cap. The problem is usually the opposite one: Teams going for too many relievers. But in a 5×5 league there is definitely an argument for going with starters, especially in a mixed league with daily transactions.

If you and your league-mates feel you need a cap, I would suggest a number of starts, rather than a number of innings. You shouldn’t be penalized for having starters who pitch late into games. I know that in many leagues the starts are capped at 180. I can’t really think of a reason why you wouldn’t want to cap them 162.

If you insist upon innings, I suppose the place to look is the ML team totals last year, which would be somewhere around 1,450 innings.