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ESPN.com: MLB – Orioles trade Richard to Rockies for prospect Cust

The consensus seems to be that the Orioles made a great trade, for once. And since they gave up someone who was an awful lot like a lot of other guys on their team, you could say they got a potential big time power-hitter for nothing.

Lawr Michaels insists Cust profiles like Thome, but when Thome was 24 years old he already had 30 major league home runs. Cust has to hit 29 this year to catch up.

Cust also hit just .265 in Colorado Springs, with 121 strikeouts. CS plays a lot like Coors, so there has to be some concern.

There are plenty of scouts and plenty of sabremetricians saying Cust is going to be a star, so maybe I’m wrong. But while I applaud the Orioles for taking a shot, but this guy doesn’t look to me like the solution to any of their problems.

ESPN.com: MLB – Vladimir, Marlins pitcher trade missed punches in brawl

The key quote is Robinson’s: “I think pitchers take their liberties. The pitcher thinks, “I’ll go inside and if I hit him, I hit him. If he’s hurt, he’s out of the lineup, and we have a better chance of winning.”

Guerrero is a great hitter, the most potent in the game today, but he is a marked man. Whether he draws 60 intentional walks this year, or gets knocked out after being hit by a pitch, he’s so far ahead of everyone else that he’s going to have a hard time getting pitches to hit.

He doesn’t mind that. He seem to hit most everything, except what’s in his face. I suggest using his high projected fantasy price as an excuse to let someone else take on a lot of risk (not that I did that in the XFL, but that’s another story).

Fantasy Information Central – Me Against the World

There is an unbelievable amount of fantasy baseball information out there. Maybe it’s because I watched Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory yesterday with my daughter, but this story at a benignly named site that otherwise features somewhat incoherent fantasy baseball notes, strikes me as singular.

Welcome to Player Profiles at Patton & Co

Today was supposed to be the day to switch over to the pay service at Pattonandco.com, but last week’s server problems have delayed things. Not that he service isn’t running smoothly now, it is, but we wanted to give everyone a chance to see that the situation is now stable.

With the software installed on all new machines, apparently correctly, the system is again humming. And perhaps the greatest endorsement is the eagerness with which the traffic has roared back to previous levels and beyond.

There is nothing like this service out on the web anyplace else, and as a resource for fantasy players or an amusement for those who just want to chat about baseball, it cannot be beat.

I have to say, I thought I’d be spending a ton of time writing player profiles for the site, but while I’ve written about 250 so far (and Alex is up over 500), the quality of the reader contributions is so high and timely that I often go to update the news on somebody and find that it’s already done.

The most popular player for commenting so far is AJ Burnett. I thought you might like to check out the comments on him through 1pm on March 10. If so, click here. You can’t ask a question or add to the debate on this demo page, you’ll have to join to do that. If you do I don’t think you’ll be disappointed.

If you have any questions about the site, let me know. I simply cannot recommend it highly enough.

Rays: Baldelli, Crawford moving up

It seems default mode in Tampa is desperation. Why else would you even think of batting Rey Ordonez second? Of course, it didn’t take too long for Lou to back off that idea.

So now the leadoff slot is Carl Crawford’s to lose. Later in this piece is a note that Lou and hitting coach Lee Elia are working with Crawford to make him more aggressive, which wouldn’t seem to be his problem.

Baldelli, apparently, willl bat second, if he deserves it.

I scoff at the idea of Lou, lover of vets, putting two strike zone impaired slashers at the top of his order, but he really has little choice. Neither Marlon Anderson nor Brent Abernathy is an obvious alternative.

Tampa is one sorry-looking team.

Ask Rotoman Home Page

You’ll find the actual quote, no heck, I’ll run it here. Below I said that in hindsight Phil Nevins’ injury looks totally predictable, but I doubted anyone predicted it. But Will Carroll did, at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s what he said last Tuesday:

There are two players who clearly stand out–one of those being Phil Nevin. Yes, that’s a red light you see next to his name and it’s the product of about five hours of phone calls, emails, and research. Finally, what sealed Nevin’s fate was the concurrence of the PECOTA projection. Simply stated, Phil Nevin is reaching a point where injuries and an exceptionally odd career path have taken some sort of toll. Last year, Nevin suffered through two arm injuries that may or may not be connected. Nevin was initially out with a strained elbow and returned, only to break his humerus near the shoulder. The injury was initially believed to be a bruised muscle, but an MRI broke the bad news. Nevin’s had a history of shoulder problems and even after his return, Nevin was clearly not at full strength. Reports coming from San Diego have Nevin still not at full strength. Add in a positional change to left field, a push past the prime years, and a history of injury, and suddenly Nevin becomes not a feared hitter, but a risky player that you don’t want to build a team around. I’ll either look like a genius or moron with this, but I expect Nevin to have some sort of season-ending injury in the early stages of the season. The Padres have plenty of options, but depending on their record, I think we’ll see Xavier Nady by the All Star break.

Freakin’ good work. Really freakin’.

ESPN.com: MLB – Roundup: Mets’ Astacio likely headed to DL

This is one of those cases where they say the obvious injury is unrelated to the really obvious injury. Yeah, sure, maybe.

Astacio has a torn labrum and probably should have had surgery before last season. He has tried to muscle up in his rehab, but that didn’t prevent his precipitous second half decline last year.

He was a once nearly a great pitcher, but you shouldn’t even entertain the thought of putting him on your team now.

ESPN.com: MLB – Tough break: Padres to lose slugger Nevin indefinitely

I don’t mean this as an I told you so, because I didn’t say it. And I doubt that anyone predicted this outcome, but if they did please let me know and I’ll give them all props. But the fact is that when ESPN calls Nevin a “left fielder” they’re projecting a little. And I know from my days as an athlete (skiing particularly) that I would be more likely to hurt myself when I did something I wasn’t used to doing than something that was habitual..

I’m cutting Nevin’s projection in half, based on this news, though that could easily prove rash (he may not need surgery) or terriibly conservative (Bochy sounds stricken).

I bumped Buchanan a healthy bit, too, and would like to give Bubba Trammel something but I already have him projected for 424 AB. I can’t see more than that.

Still, if Nevin really is going to miss half the season it looks like San Diego needs to add a hitter somewhere.

The LABR draft was held last weekend, but the prices are embargoed until the paper comes out. I’m not sure why, but clearly there is an attempt to build up some pent up demand. Which may be how I have come to have a copy of the results and permission to release some tid bits.

Some prices of interest:

Villafuerte $5, Witasick $8. Both to the same team. A non-expert team. I think it’s pretty silly to buy both these guys because you’re paying real money and may not be getting the Padres’ closer. And you’re using two slots. If one of them wins the job and holds it most of the year, or they effectively split it, this could work out, but the impact if neither gets the job is a bigger negative than the best case is a positive.

V Martinez $7, Bard $3. This reflects my assessment of their probable year-end offensive contributions, but the V Martinez play is a risky one. Two more bucks got Ramon Hernandez, who has a job.

Dunn $27, Kearns $21, Griffey $23. Give me Kearns over Dunn, while Griffey is a risk at any price, or a bargain.

Wolf and Vazquez $18. Let me at them.

Prior and Wood $23. Even more so.

On the whole these two auctions illustrate the deadlock that has become roto. I started looking through the Guide comparing prices and the utter sameness most of the time was numbing. (I priced Lyle Overbay at $8 in November, a man with no major league track record, and he went for $9 in March!) And then, when I found interesting differences (in the Guide I have Vazquez down for $14 because of injury concerns, and Wood down for $17, being ridiculously and unrealistically cautious, Prior for $!8 and Wolf for $24) I couldn’t really see anything all that interesting about them. Once everybody’s in the ballpark the auction turns into something of a draft, anyway.

If all goes well, I’ll get Randy Wolf, at least.

USATODAY.com – Consider San Juan effect with Expos

Hunt argues that Expos hitters could see a surge because of the diminutive dimensions of Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan. I think he’s wrong for a few reasons.

Hiram Bithorn’s dimensions: 315, 360, 400.
Olympic Stadium: 325, 375, 406.

It is considerably more humid in Puerto Rico during the summer. There is also considerably more foul ground at HB.

I find it hard to believe ten extra feet of depth for 20 games is going to do much to jack the fortunes of Montreal hitters in general. Just as likely to have an impact is the humidity and the travel, a different background and lots of room to pop out.

My advice: Don’t count on any difference whatsoever.