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Baseball Info Solutions

I was away all summer. Did a loop extending from Orient NY to Chautauqua NY, north to Debarats, Ontario (via the Bruce Peninsula), then across the Trans-Canada Highway eventually to Yarmouth Maine, north to Rockland Maine, then back to Ashland New Hampshire and finally home to Brooklyn. Our 1991 Honda Accord ran flawlessly, packed to the gills, and we saw many friends and family and feasted on their generous hospitality. The whole trip was splendid.

I even took my daughter to her first pro baseball game: The Portland Sea Dogs v. the Norwich Navigators.

While I was away a book arrived on my desk from Steve Moyer, the president of Baseball Info Solutions. Steve worked with me when Rotowire was involved in the Fantasy Baseball Guide magazine. He’s got a heckuva head for baseball and brings a good sense of humor to it. BIS provided the stats for the 2003 Fantasy Baseball Guide (though you wouldn’t know it by reading the masthead, where in some last-minute befogged state I supplied the designer with a wrong name. As Steve said: Jeez, of the three words the only one you got right was Baseball! As I said: At least the check cleared.)

We had talked last November about the tragedy of Fox’s decision to discontinue the Red Book that STATS had published since (hmm, I don’t know, but a long time) and every baseball fan I knew ordered as soon as the order form went up at the STATS site. What I didn’t know is that this year BIS, with Bill James, decided to publish the same material. So, alas, it sat unopend and unused on my desk until I returned yesterday.

First off, the book is red, as it should be. It has much of the same material in the same format as the STATS book, including career major league stats, career minor league stats for young players, run created and component ERA columns, team summaries for 2002, fielding stats, lefty righty splits, park effects, the regular and Bill James’ leader board, and, intriguingly, an intro to pitch data (summary data for the Barries Bonds and Zito).

(What BIS is doing is charting all pitches by location, type and speed, so that one can slice and dice stat splits in a multitude of ways we have a hard time even imagining.)

Most of this stuff is online now somewhere, but not in one place. And online isn’t the best way to compare pages of stats, unless you have multiple systems going. I’ve spent an absurd amount of time this year digging for stuff that in the Handbook is right at my fingertips. If you want a handy guide to player stats, the Bill James Handbook (as it’s now called) is the place to go. Especially when the book is published immediately after the World Series.

This is from ESPN Insider’s Scout’s Take, from an anonymous scout:

“# There are a couple of reasons Torii Hunter is having a difficult time at the plate this season. First, he has a long swing. In scout-speak, he hits around the ball a lot. And he’s prone to slumps because that swing is so long. Last year, it seems the Twins had more protection in the batting order for him. Also, I think the league caught up to him a bit this season, and he hasn’t done a very good job making adjustments on the breaking ball.”

It’s hard to argue with him, though this seems to be a bit of hindsight talking. Those who didn’t notice his weak walk rate last year, or disregarded it, were sure a star was being born. Instead we have here a good-fielding powerhitter. who doesn’t get on base all that much. But what really screws the fantasy pooch is the decline in stolen bases.

Gammons says Juan Gone has torn calf muscle

I think Gammons’ point is that Igor was saving the Royals by not accepting the trade, when his torn calf muscle was too hurt to allow him to play.

In any case, it seems that the injury-prone Igor remains injury prone. Only this time it isn’t his pain threshold that matters, but a real physical malady.

Big whoop.

Askrotoman March 18, 2003

Ken Griffey’s demise and Juan Gonzalez’s increasing trade value causes me to revisit a preseason mlb.com column. Clearly, on average, my advice was sound, though I wish I’d said, “You won’t find me going for either of these guys unless their price is half of what I hope they’ll earn. Odds are good that both will miss serious time with an injury of some sort. There’s no reason to bet aggressively against that.”

I’m on the road for the summer, and so far it has been a nightmare. Yet, it has rained nearly everday, but the bigger problem is that everywhere I go (and this is in the information corridor and it’s beach-like adjuncts) the phones are down, there is no cable, Starbucks doesn’t have broadband.

All of this makes it hard to sustain my presence here at Ask Rotoman.

So, I have something to point out:

In all the NY papers today ALL the Yankees news was about how Raul Mondesi was benched and Karim Garcia would play against all righties until the all star break (which meant all the Yankees’ games until the ASB.

Well, the Blue Jays started righty John Wasdin and lo and behold Mondesi, who really did carry the Yanks for April and May (along with Al Soriano, surely), started.

Which addresses all the questions I get about starting lineups. The fact is, they’re good until they ain’t. And there’s nothing you can do about it..

And now I take my leave. You’ll find some comments from time to time on the Discussion board (and thanks for the questions, always). You may also find me at pattonandco.com, which is still worth the $10 even if nobody posts another comment the rest of the year.

But lots of smart folks will.

And maybe I’ll show up here. The good thing about not asking for anyone’s money is I buy a little freedom. I’m travelling and the one thing you can count on is I’ll be posting an Ask Rotoman column every Tuesday.

I appreciate your comments on the discussion group, you questions for the column, your contributions at pattonandco.com.

Have a good summer.
Peter

Neyer on Mora

Rob is right that Mora may never again be an All Star, and he’s almost certainly right that he’ll not hit .360 or whatever he’s at today the rest of the way.

But Mora has always been a bad contact hitter who clearly knew the strike zone. He’s taken plenty of walks, which is why he has a big league job. As a fantasy player that’s why he’s on my team. And if my team does well this year I want credit for that.

It’s perfectly reasonable to assess the possibility that MM will sustain his hot streak, and essential that we evaluate his 2nd half contribution based on his first half stats. But most importantly we should look at a player’s skills and talents. THe aggregate history of players in a similar postion matters, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

The fantasy spin so far seems to say that Robbie Alomar will rescue his totally flagging career by getting out of NY.

I hope that’s true. In the American Dream League I have the most waiver dollars, and I’m one offensive player short of first place. Alomar will be a Boneman next Monday, and I wish I was more confident that he’s going to recover.

Shea Stadium is definitely not a good place for hitters. And the sensitive RA definitely had initial problems adjusting to the New York City scene. But he did adjust, he stopped complaining and he never started hitting.

The bottom line is he’s old for a speedster, he’s old for a middle infield force, he’s old.

Two years ago he was also one of the five most productive fantasy hitters in the game. Regardless of postion.

And once before he had some miserable off time, when he was miserable, and when he got happy he got more productive.

To that I have to say: He’s older now. Nobody has ever been happy playing for the White Sox. (Look at the weird failures of Frank Thomas and now Paul Konerko.) And he’s older now.

Still, he’s going to be a new player in a new league who will cut into the playing time of D’Angelo Jiminez and who will play all the games the rest of the way. If he hits .270 with 6 homers and 9 stolen bases he’s going to decide fantasy championships.

Go Robbie.

Ask Rotoman

This week Rotoman addresses the incessant need for pitching. And while the obvious answer is clearly not clear, it is clearly best to go for guys who have been good. Rather than those who might be good.

Unless, of course, you have no choice but to hope that those who might be good actually might turn out to be good.

The bottom line: Go for the guys you know are good. But go for the cheapest of the bunch. Don’t ever pay what you hope someone will be worth.

Then hope you get a little lucky.

That, of course, is a good reason for teams that are out of it to hope they might come back.

It happens every Tuesday

A new Ask Rotoman has come to town. Find out about Kaz Matsui and 2004, Miguel Cabrera and a passel of hurtin’ outfielders, and why someone complaining about injuries to Scott Rolen, Juan Gonzalez and Ken Griffey Jr. should be scolded.

And did you know that the wholly and embarrasingly ineffectual David Bell is sixth most prolific walker among ML third basemen? I guess taking a pitch isn’t everything.

ESPN.com – MLB – MLB Transactions

I try to stay balanced, weight on the balls of my feet, hands held about chest high, both eyes on the pitcher. I try to stay comfortable, and ready to hit.

At a couple of Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Forums this spring I answered the inevitable What sleepers do you like questions with a variety of names, some good some bad, but most of all I featured Brent Butler.

My hunch was based on the way he hit in limited duty last year, as well as my evaluation of the offensive merits of Juan Uribe, Ronnie Belliard, Chris Stynes, Greg Norton and Pablo Ozuna.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I was wrong. Despite the limitations of all the Rockies guys, they were all (except the injured Ozuna) better than Butler, who was designated for assignment today.

They were also all better than Gabe Kapler, who was released last week, and Jose Hernandez, who was traded. In fact, these three (Kapler, Hernandez and Butler) were the three worst hitters on the Rockies this year so far (by OPS), and now all three are gone. Next on the list?

Greg Norton.